Tennessee Titans (2-1, 2-1 ATS) at New York Jets (0-3, 0-3), 1 p.m.
Implied Team Totals: Titans 25.5, Jets 18.5
Spread/Total Movements: 7.5 to 7, 46 to 44
Weather: 68 degrees, 35% chance of rain, 10 mph
Titans Injuries to Watch: WR A.J. Brown (hamstring, out), WR Julio Jones (hamstring, out), EDGE Bud Dupree (knee, out), CB Caleb Farley (shoulder, out)
Jets Injuries to Watch: WR Jamison Crowder (groin, questionable), TE Tyler Kroft (chest, questionable), WR Elijah Moore (concussion, out), S Marcus Maye (ankle, out)
Brolley’s Titans Stats and Trends
The Titans are 7-1 toward overs in their last eight road games.
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a road favorite.
Derrick Henry failed to find the end zone in Tennessee’s victory over the Colts in Week 3, but Henry’s floor has been raised this season with three straight games with 3+ catches to open the year. He finished with 28/113 rushing, he caught all three of his targets for 31 yards, and he added a two-point conversion to get to 19.4 FP. King Henry already has 12 catches on 13 targets through three games, and he’s well on pace to smash his previous receiving bests in targets (31) and receptions (19) from last season, as well as his 206 receiving yards from 2019. He’s back to being an elite option at the position after a slow first six quarters to the season, and he’ll have a great chance to get 30+ touches this week against the Jets in a game the Titans should control. The Jets are giving up just 3.6 YPC to RBs, but they’ve faced the fifth-most RB carries per game (25.7).
A.J. Brown played just eight snaps before he left Week 3 with a hamstring injury, and he could be looking at a multi-week absence after being ruled out quickly. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine led the Titans with 25 routes last week followed by Chester Rogers (17). Josh Reynolds could also dress this week after being a healthy scratch in Week 3, and Marcus Johnson (undisclosed, IR) could return to the lineup after generating some buzz in training camp.
Julio Jones looked set to feast in Week 3 after Brown left early, but he managed just 3/47 receiving on four targets while playing on just 50% of the snaps. Julio appears to potentially be back in HC Mike Vrabel’s doghouse for not giving enough effort in run blocking. Vrabel backpedaled this week after his initial comments after the game when he said Julio “got tight” in Week 3 and that it wasn’t a performance-based decision to sit him. Anyway you want to dice it, Julio was off the field for half of the snaps in a game when Brown left early with an injury. Julio should be fed this week against a Jets’ secondary that limited Courtland Sutton to 5/37 receiving last week if he’s able to play.
Ryan Tannehill is in a tough spot this week without Brown, and he’s had a bizarre two-game stretch. He posted 23.5 FP in Week 3 despite throwing for 197 yards and two INTs (he had 3 passing TDs and 56 rushing yards) while he had just 15.6 FP in Week 2 despite throwing for 347 yards and averaging 8.7 YPA. The Jets’ secondary has played well above expectations, and they’re giving up the second-fewest FPG (13.1) to QB.s The Jets are facing the seventh-fewest pass attempts per game (30.0) because of New York’s inept offense, which might hold true again this week with the Titans entering as eight-point road underdogs.
Brolley’s Jets Stats and Trends
Rookie QBs are 1-9 outright and ATS so far. Mac Jones is the only rookie quarterback with an outright win and an ATS cover and they both came against Zach Wilson in Week 2.
The Jets started last season 0-6 ATS.
New York is 6-1 toward unders in its last seven games.
Zach Wilson’s career is off to a rough start with his second multi-interception game in just three weeks, and he’s tied with fellow rookie Trevor Lawrence for the league lead with seven interceptions. He completed 19/35 passes for just 160 yards (4.6 YPA) without a touchdown and two INTs against the Broncos in Week 3, which means he has a combined 10.9 FP in the last two weeks (it’s even worse in league’s that deduct for turnovers). He has run into three of the league’s better defenses (NE, Car, Den), and he finally gets a spot where he could have some success against a Titans defense that’s allowed the 12th-most FPG (21.9) to QBs through three weeks.
Corey Davis has just 7/49 receiving in the last two weeks after opening the season with 5/97/2 receiving, which mostly came in garbage time against the Panthers. He at least saw 10 targets (30% share) last week and it looks like Elijah Moore (concussion) could miss this week. Davis has a #RevengeGame spot against a Titans defense that’s allowed the third-most FPG (50.1) to WRs.
Jamison Crowder is nearing a return from his groin injury, and he could immediately be active out of the slot with Wilson struggling and Moore unlikely to play with his concussion. Braxton Berrios saw a whopping 11 targets (33% share) in their Week 2 loss to the Patriots. The Titans have allowed ninth-most receptions (15.3) to WRs through three weeks.
Michael Carter has been the top option in the Jets’ backfield the last two weeks ahead of Ty Johnson, with Tevin Coleman mostly out of the picture (he sat for an illness last week). The Jets attempted just 12 carries and they averaged 3.1 yards per play in their shutout loss to the Broncos. Carter has just 5/48 receiving on eight targets and 36 routes despite negative gamescripts each week. The Titans are giving up 15th-fewest FPG (22.7) to RBs through three weeks.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Week 1-3 – Pace (seconds in between plays): 29.4 (21st)
Week 1-3 – Plays per game: 76.3 (3rd)
Week 1-3 – Pass: 55.6% (25th) | Run: 44.4% (8th)
Week 1-3 – Pace: 26.8 (9th)
Week 1-3 – Plays per game: 67.7 (13th)
Week 1-3 – Pass: 70.0% (3rd) | Run: 30.0% (30th)
After losing by 5 to the Panthers (in a game that was never close), losing by 19 to the Patriots, and getting shut out last week by the Broncos – the Jets are the only team in the NFL yet to lead in a game. New York is rightfully a touchdown underdog here, but this line would be closer to 10 or 11 if the Titans were at home. Tennessee will lean heavily on Derrick Henry here especially with their issues at receiver, and as we know, Henry is the RB1 when the Titans win. Over the Titans last seven victories, Henry has gone off for 20.2 > 38.5 > 36.2 > 25.2 > 37 > 47.7 > 18.7 fantasy points for an average of 31.9 FPG. The Jets front-seven has faced 26.8 carries per game through three weeks – largely because they’ve been behind so much – and it’s resulted in allowing 31.1 FPG to backs (third-most). King Henry is going to feast.
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
By pure matchup, this is a good one for Ryan Tannehill and the Titans’ passing game. The Jets will hope that a starting lineup featuring a pair of rookie CBs (Brandin Echols and Michael Carter II) will contain the Titans, alongside 2020 fifth-rounder Bryce Hall as their premiere corner. The mixture actually worked relatively well up until Week 3 when Teddy Bridgewater completed 76% of his attempts with a healthy 9.4 YPA. The situation, however, has taken a turn for the worse with the news that stud strong safety Marcus Maye will miss Week 4 with an ankle injury. Tannehill, of course, will be down both AJ Brown and Julio Jones with hamstring injuries. That makes him most unappealing despite the strong defensive matchup.
I actually really like the matchup for Corey Davis against the Jets’ Cover 1… but until rookie QB Zach Wilson proves he can attack any NFL coverage, I’m more likely to be bearish — perhaps extremely so — on Davis.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
The NFL record for touches in a game belongs to LaDainian Tomlinson, who had 48 in a Charger win over the Broncos in 2002. Tomlinson belongs to a bygone era of true bellcow workloads, and it’s possible we never again see players like him, Priest Holmes, Ricky Williams, and Shaun Alexander all being a threat for 30 carries any given week.
Indeed, since 2010, there have been only five instances of an NFL player toting the ball 40 or more times in a game, half of the decade previous. But one of those games happened this year… and it was Derrick Henry who did it, with 41 touches in the Titans’ Week 2 overtime win over the Seahawks. If I had to predict, Henry won’t touch the ball 40 times in this game. That’s because I expect the Titans to win it rather handily, and then we could see some Jeremy McNichols action. But if the Titans win handily, I expect Henry to be the catalyst. The Jets have given up the 3rd-most FPG to opposing RBs so far this year. Tennessee is a touchdown favorite. OH, did I mention that Henry has more catches (12) than Alvin Kamara (10) and Saquon Barkley (9)? Everything is lining up for Henry to break the main slate.
AJ Brown and Julio Jones will not play, which really puts a damper on the Titans’ passing game, even in a good matchup. You can probably find a better QB on the waiver wire than Ryan Tannehill this week, while if you’re desperate for a WR3, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine led all Titan WRs in routes run last week (25). Chester Rogers does have 13 targets in three games, however, and scored last week.
Since our time on this planet is finite, I’m trying to avoid writing about and forcing you to read about the Jets as much as possible. So let me borrow from Scott Barrett in this week’s Start/Sit column for why Corey Davis — in a #RevengeGame — is the only Jet I’m willing to consider for fantasy this week:
“Zach Wilson has been under pressure on 46.7% of his dropbacks (2nd-most), but this week’s matchup should finally allow Wilson some time in the pocket, as the Titans rank 6th-worst in PFF pass rush grade. And Tennessee has surrendered the 3rd-most FPG to opposing WRs (50.1), including four performances of 21.0 fantasy points or more.”
To add to Scott’s point, the Titans are down EDGE Bud Dupree (knee) this week.
It’s looking like Jamison Crowder (groin) will make his season debut this week. He’s merely a stash, but note well that Braxton Berrios is second behind Davis with 21 targets, and he’s been almost exclusively a slot receiver. I figure that’s where Crowder will line up, so he could catch Wilson’s fancy.