Week 17 IDP Preview

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Week 17 IDP Preview

Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews. As always, start your studs. I won’t be advising you to target no-brainers like Aaron Donald or Roquan Smith.

A “target” is a player who has a higher chance to come through than usual. An “avoid” is a player who has a lower chance to come through than usual.

Note: Please check COVID lists carefully on Sunday. Things are changing so rapidly. Remember that Inactive lists won’t show players on the COVID list.

Atl @ Buf

Targets:

Ed Oliver (DT, Buf) — Oliver and this entire D-line have a great matchup this week. Not only is Atlanta 6th in FPG to DLs, but Buffalo is also expected to be in the lead for most of the game. That amps up the big-play opportunity for the Bills. Oliver (ankle) is questionable but is expected to play.

A.J. Terrell (CB, Atl) — Terrell faces one of the most dangerous and active passing attacks in the game. That passing attack has created the 8th-most FPG to DBs. Terrell has finally turned the corner to becoming the confident, aggressive cornerback he was drafted as. His PD and INTs have seen a bump lately, so between his chances for multiple targets and his aggressiveness, Terrell’s chances for a good game are high.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

DOUBTFUL

CB Fabian Moreau, Atl - ribs

QUESTIONABLE

DE Mario Addison, Buf - forearm

DT Ed Oliver, Buf - Ankle

NYG @ Chi

Targets:

Logan Ryan (S, NYG) — Ryan has been a stud for us for most of the year and he’s set up for a nice game to close out the fantasy season. The Bears are a top-10 team for FPG to DBs and Ryan has been the primary fantasy producer in the Giants secondary.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

DT Akiem Hicks, Chi - illness

DT Austin Johnson, NYG - foot

CB Adoree Jackson, NYG - quad

KC @ Cin

Targets:

None of note.

Avoids:

Jessie Bates (S, Cin) — Bates and this Bengals secondary could be in for a slow game. The Chiefs are 27th in FPG to DBs, which tends to affect Bates more than Vonn Bell most weeks.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

DE Cam Sample, Cin -hamstring

CB Jalen Davis, Cin - ankle

QUESTIONABLE

S Tyrann Mathieu, KC - quad

LV @ Ind

Targets:

Bobby Okereke (LB, Ind) — Okereke has a good matchup this week. This Raiders offense produces 23.4 tackles per game to LB, which is 4th-most. Darius Leonard is back this week, so both of these LBs are in good positions.

Khari Willis (S, Ind) — Willis is back from the COVID list and returns to a solid matchup. Willis spends more time in the box than deep, but the Raiders have been productive to both box defenders and the secondary. Willis has been a 7-10 tackle guy when healthy, and should be in line for similar production this week.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

S Andrew Sendejo, Ind - concussion

QUESTIONABLE

DT Johnathan Hankins, LV - back

Jax @ NE

Targets:

Kyle Dugger (S, NE) — Dugger and Adrian Phillips are listed as questionable, but as we’ve learned, it’s hard to trust New England’s injury reports. That said, unless they are inactive or we hear of any GTD news for either, this is a great matchup for both. Jacksonville normally throws it a ton and this week should be no different. Add in the 3.5 PD and 0.8 INTs per game to DBs and Dugger and co. have the 4th-best matchup of the week.

Avoids:

Davon Godchaux (DT, NE) — Godchaux, Lawrence Guy, and Christian Barmore have been solid run-stuffers this season, but they’ve run into a bad matchup this week. Jacksonville’s offense just doesn't run the ball much. And even though they’re under new management, their offensive identity hasn’t changed much. It’s also highly likely that the Jaguars will be trailing (a familiar position for this team), so it would be hard to stick to the run even if they wanted to. Jax ranks 32nd in FPG to DLs.

Notable Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

LB Dakota Allen, Jax - shoulder

DT Christian Barmore, NE - knee

LB Dont’a Hightower, NE - knee

S Adrian Phillips, NE - knee

CB J.C. Jackson, NE - elbow

S Kyle Dugger, NE - hamstring

Car @ NO

Targets:

Cameron Jordan (DE, NO) — Jordan has been balling out as of late, which shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, as he’s a Pro-Bowl stud. He and Marcus Davenport dominated Tampa Bay’s stout O-line a few weeks ago. Carolina does NOT have a stout O-line, and that’s being kind. Between their leaky O-line and their reliance on the run, the Panthers are 2nd in FPG to DLs. Both Davenport (questionable - shoulder) and Jordan should have good games.

Demario Davis (LB, NO) — Davis and Kwon Alexander are back from the COVID list and welcome an opponent that produces the 8th-most FPG to LBs. Davis has been a bit up-and-down this season, but he’s got 8-10 tackle upside this week.

Avoids:

Jeremy Chinn (S, Car) — Chinn is still start-worthy, but he’s got tough sledding ahead. Or rather, it’s the lack of sledding that may hurt him. New Orleans doesn’t create much action to opposing secondaries and Chinn is playing more traditional safety this year (versus the boatload of box snaps he received last season). The Saints are 29th in FPG to DBs.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

CB Stephon Gilmore, Car - groin

S Kenny Robinson, Car - illness

QUESTIONABLE

LB Jermaine Carter, Car - groin

S Juston Burris, Car - groin

CB C.J. Henderson, Car - shoulder/knee

DE Marcus Davenport, NO - shoulder

DE Carl Granderson, NO - illness

CB Bradley Roby, NO - shoulder

TB @ NYJ

Targets:

Javelin Guidry (CB, NYJ) — Tampa Bay’s pass-heavy offense can be a fantasy boon for the CBs Tom Brady decides to pick on. I believe that CB will be Guidry in this game (though all the Jets CBs should be busy). Guidry had 7 tackles last week, as he was picked on plenty enough to be effective for fantasy. His speed (remember his 4.29 pro day 40?) and solid tackling also help raise his floor.

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (OLB, TB) — With both Jason Pierre-Paul (shoulder) and Shaq Barrett (knee) out for this game, the rookie EDGE should get all the snaps he can handle. He’s flashed in limited duty this season — including a sack in Week 15 — and his raised usage this week comes at a great time. The Jets have been a top-10 team for opposing D-lines this season.

Avoids:

Quinnen Williams (DT, NYJ) — Tampa Bay moved up the charts in FPG to DLs due to a thorough ass-kicking by the Saints D-line two weeks ago. But that was just a blip on the radar. Last week, the Bucs didn’t give up a sack and essentially shut out the opposing D-line. So despite recent events, this still seems like a brutal matchup for Williams. And he’s not even off the COVID list yet.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

OLB Jason Pierre-Paul, TB - shoulder

OLB Shaquil Barrett, TB - knee

S Mike Edwards, SF - elbow

DOUBTFUL

CB Richard Sherman, TB - Achilles

QUESTIONABLE

S Antoine Winfield, Jr., TB - foot

Mia @ Ten

Targets:

Christian Wilkins (DT, Mia) — Wilkins has been a stud this season and he’ll close out the fantasy season with the best matchup of the season. The Titans are the #1 team for FPG to DLs. We shouldn’t expect any more offensive TDs for Wilkins like he had in Week 15, but it’s nice to know they do have goal-line packages for the big fella.

Jerome Baker (LB, Mia) — We warned this offseason about Baker’s fantasy value in this defense and sadly the warnings have proven warranted. Baker usually posts between 5-7 tackles, but his fantasy prospects are elevated this week. The Titans have been a top-3 matchup all season for LBs even without Derrick Henry. Baker could be in the 8-10 tackle range this week for a change.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

DE Larrell Murchison, Ten - knee

Phi @ Was

Targets:

None of note.

Avoids:

Cole Holcomb (LB, Was) — Holcomb is back from the COVID list and is worth a start, but he’s got a poor matchup this week. Philly produces the 2nd-worst FPG to LBs this season. Tackle-wise they’re bottom-5 and they haven’t produced many big plays, which has sunk their value even further. Shave off 2-3 tackles from Holcomb typically produces and that’s probably where he’ll land this week.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

CB William Jackson III, Was - calf

Den @ LAC

Targets:

Justin Simmons (S, Den) — Simmons and to a lesser extent Kareem Jackson have good matchups this week. Simmons has been in the 5-8 tackle range this season but Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler bleed load up fantasy production to opposing secondaries. The Chargers are 2nd in FPG to DBs this season.

Avoids:

Kyzir White (LB, LAC) — After being one of the nicer midseason surprises in IDP-land, White enters Championship Week with a brutal matchup. The Broncos and their slow offense are just 28th in FPG to LBs. I’m still rolling with White, but he has an uphill battle this week.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

DE Stephen Weatherly, Den - illness

DOUBTFUL

LB Drue Tranquill, Den - ankle

QUESTIONABLE

DE Shelby Harris, Den - ankle

DL Shamar Stephen, Den - illness

DT DreMont Jones, Den - foot

LB Kenny Young, Den - concussion

S Kareem Jackson, Den - back/shoulder

CB Ronald Darby, Den - shoulder

S Derwin James, LAC - hamstring

CB Tevaughn Campbell, LAC - hamstring

Hou @ SF

Targets:

None of note.

Avoids:

Jacquiski Tartt (S, SF) — Houston’s offense has shown signs of life lately, but there’s still not much to see here. The Texans are 30th in FPG to DBs. Tartt has been a decent DB3 this season and I think you can still use him as such this week, but he has very little chance to bust out for you this week unless he nabs an INT.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

DL Maurice Hurst, SF - calf

LB Dre Greenlaw, SF - groin

LB Azeez Al-Shaair, SF - knee

DOUBTFUL

S Talanoa Hufanga, SF - knee

QUESTIONABLE

DL D.J. Jones, SF - ankle

LAR @ Bal

Targets:

Start all your Rams IDPs this week. Baltimore is 4th in FPG to DLs, 7th in FPG to LBs, and 1st in FPG to DBs. This game is also expected to produce one of the highest numbers of plays this week. All. Systems. Go.

Avoids:

Patrick Queen (LB, Bal) — Queen has finally picked up his fantasy production over the last month. He had 9 tackles last week after racking up 13 the week before. So why is he on the “avoids” list? The Rams are 32nd in FPG to LBs. And since there are only 32 teams in the NFL, that’s not a great spot to be if you need production from your LBs.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

OLB Tyus Bowser, Bal - personal

CB Anthony Averett, Bal - ribs/chest

DOUBTFUL

OLB Odafe Oweh, Bal - foot

QUESTIONABLE

DE Greg Gaines, LAR - hand

OLB Leonard Floyd, LAR - ankle

Ari @ Dal

Targets:

Jalen Thompson (S, Ari) — Budda Baker stole the show last week with 12 tackles and a sack, but Thompson has been the main fantasy asset for this Arizona secondary. Baker is questionable this week with a rib injury, but that’s not the reason we’re high on Thompson this week. Thompson has a great matchup — Dallas is 3rd in FPG to DBs — and will be involved in what should be the fastest, most fantasy-productive game of the week. The Cardinals and Cowboys should be in a close shootout [rubs hands together and evil-laughs].

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

DE Jordan Phillips, Ari - knee

CB Marco Wilson, Ari - shoulder

QUESTIONABLE

DE Zach Allen, Ari - ankle

S Budda Baker, Ari - ribs

Det @ Sea

Targets:

Jordyn Brooks (LB, Sea) — You don’t need me to tell you to start Bobby Wagner, but both he and Brooks have the best matchup of the week for LBs. Detroit produces 27.2 tackles to LBs per week, which is 3 more tackles per game than any other team.

Avoids:

Tracy Walker (S, Det) — Walker’s matchup is gross. Seattle’s offense is gross. There’s always a chance that Russell Wilson and D.K. Metcalf get things going, but it hasn’t happened often this season. Thus, Seattle is the worst matchup for DBs this season.

Notable Injuries:

None of note.

Min @ GB

Targets:

De’Vondre Campbell (LB, GB) — Campbell had a good matchup and came through with 13 tackles (12 solo) and a PD. This matchup his matchup is even better. The Vikings are 3rd in FPG to LBs.

Avoids:

Harrison Smithl (S, Min) — This is for only shallow leagues. If you are choosing between Smith or another stud DB1, this is for you. If you use Smith in 2-or-3 DB leagues, look away! Smith has been a stud all season and has produced plenty in bad matchups. But this is one of his worst of the season. Green Bay’s offense is efficient and slow. That’s a terrible combination for the tackle floors of opposing IDPs. Smith had 4 solos and a sack in their last meeting (see what I mean about still coming through in tough matchups?), but he’s normally in the 7-9 tackle range.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

CB Jaire Alexander, GB - shoulder

DOUBTFUL

CB Cameron Dantzler, Min, calf

QUESTIONABLE

DT Michael Pierce, Min, illness

Cle @ Pit

Targets:

Robert Spillane (LB, Pit) — With Joe Schobert and Devin Bush on the COVID list, it should be Spillane playing the primary LB role Monday Night. There’s a chance that Bush makes it back before Monday, but as long as Schobert doesn't return (COVID list change by the second it seems, so please check carefully on Sunday for any updates), Spillane is in line for a good game. The Browns are 5th in FPG to LBs this season, including allowing 13 tackles to De’Vondre Campbell last week. They could run at Spillane all game, giving him double-digit tackle upside. If Bush doesn’t play, Marcus Allen could also be a deep-league play as well.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

DE Chris Wormley, Pit - groin

QUESTIONABLE

DE Myles Garrett, Cle - groin

DT Malik Jackson, Cle - knee

CB Troy Hill, Cle - knee

S John Johnson, Cle - hamstring

S Ronnie Harrison, Jr., Cle - ankle

CB Greg Newsome II, Cle - concussion

Justin has been holding down the IDP fort for John Hansen and the crew since 2015. In addition to projections and articles, he also hosts an all-IDP podcast called “The IDP Corner,” where he is joined by his fellow FantasyPoints IDP contributor Thomas Simons, along with other special guests.

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