Week 12 IDP Preview

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Week 12 IDP Preview

Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews. As always, start your studs. I won’t be advising you to target no-brainers like Aaron Donald or Roquan Smith.

A “target” is a player who has a higher chance to come through than usual. An “avoid” is a player who has a lower chance to come through than usual.

Teams on Bye: Arizona, Kansas City

Pit @ Cin

Targets:

Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Pit) — Fitzpatrick returns from the COVID-19 list to a good matchup. The Bengals are a top-10 team for opposing DB production, and with Joe Haden banged up, Fitzpatrick might have more doubling duties this week, which means a few more big-play opportunities.

Cameron Heyward (DT, Pit) — Heyward faces a weak Cincy O-line that gives up 1.5 sacks and 1.8 TFL per game to DLs. Joe Burrow also creates about 1 PD per game to DLs, so Heyward’s big-play upside might see a boost this week.

Logan Wilson (LB, Cin) — Wilson has had a few slow games lately, but that’s partly due to playing two opponents who managed just 45 and 48 snaps of offense. This week, he faces PIT, whose renewed run game creates the 2nd-most LB tackles per game. Overall, the Steelers are 5th-most in FPG to LBs.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

CB Joe Haden, Pit - foot

NYJ @ Hou

Targets:

Quincy WIlliams (LB, NYJ) — I don’t think Williams has a ton of value long-term, but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t turn in another strong performance this week. He’s playing ahead of Jarrad Davis, and C.J. Mosley is dealing with a shoulder injury. I’m expecting Mosley to play in what could be a game the Jets can win but even with a fully active Mosley, this matchup is too good to pass up. The Texans create the 4th-most FPG for opposing linebackers, with a nice mix of tackle production and big plays.

Desmond King II (CB, Hou) — King has at least 6 tackles in each full game since he became the starter in Week Four (he left one game early with an injury) and has had 8 or more tackles in three of those five games. He has the best matchup of the week, as the Jets are the #1 opponent for DB fantasy production. Not only do the Jets throw it a league-high 66% of the time, but they’re also down their lead running back. King also returns punts occasionally, for those in return yardage leagues.

Avoids:

Ashtyn Davis (S, NYJ) — Davis has had some solid games since Marcus Maye went down. He generally provides a healthy mix of tackles and big plays — last week, he posted 4 tackles, 1 INT, 1 PD, and 1 TFL — but he might have a slow game this week. The Texans don’t send a lot of action toward the secondary, ranking 28th in FPG to DBs.

Notable Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

LB C.J. Mosley, NYJ - shoulder

DL Shaq Lawson, NYJ - wrist

DL John Franklin-Myers, NYJ - hip

DL Jonathan Greenard, Hou - foot

DB Lonnie Johnson, Jr., Hou - illness

TB @ Ind

Targets:

None of note.

Avoids:

Devin White (LB, TB) — White should start for you unless you have a clear replacement. But beyond his quad injury he’s been nursing along, the Colts haven’t been kind to opposing LBs. They’re slightly below average in tackles to LBs (21.6 per game) and they’re near the bottom in big plays created by LBs. If White plays, he might be in for a slower game than usual. If he doesn't play, Kevin Minter probably isn’t a great option in his stead.

DeForest Buckner (DT, Ind) — We all know how this goes. A player hasn’t been producing and comes up against a tough matchup. So magically that player goes off. If you want to use this as a reason to fire up Buckner, I won’t blame you. But Buckner has been taking a slightly lowered workload lately. Normally in the mid-80s in snap share, Buckner has been at 70% the last two games. He’s also had some bad luck, as the Jacksonville stat crew recorded all three of his tackles as assists and split his sack (something they’re notorious for). This week, he’ll face one of the toughest O-lines in the game and face an offense that hates to run the football. Buckner may have another slow game, but this stretch is more about bad luck and bad timing than anything he’s doing on the field.

Notable Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

DT Vita Vea, TB - knee

LB Devin White, TB - quadriceps

Atl @ Jax

Targets:

Josh Allen (DE, Jax) — You probably don’t need me to tell you to start Allen, but in case you thought his recent production was a fluke, he’s had 7 or more tackles in four of his last six games. Yowza. He’s been the #1 DL since Week Five, and he has a great matchup this week. In what could be a close game, Allen might get more pass rush opps than usual, and he gets to do it against a Falcons team that ranks 3rd in FPG to DLs.

Avoids:

Grady Jarrett (DT, Atl) — Jacksonville is probably best known for being at the bottom of many lists, but the list you might least expect is “toughest matchups for DLs.” Between not running it a lot and being solid in pass protection, the Jags produce a league-low 10.4 tackles per game to DLs and a league-low 14.5 FPG to DLs.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

DL Jonathan Bullard, Atl - ankle

CB Shaquill Griffin, Atl - concussion

QUESTIONABLE

LB Deion Jones, Atl - shoulder

Car @ Mia

Targets:

Jaelan Phillips (DE, Mia) — One of our favorite rookie DLs has been getting it done as of late. He’s played more than 50% in four straight games, marking a notable bump in usage. He also has at least a half-sack in three of those four games and has at least 3 tackles in three of those four games. This week he faces the DL-friendly Panthers, whose 23.73 FPG to DLs make them the #2 matchup. It also should be a good week for Christian Wilkins.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

S Brandon Jones, Mia - ankle/elbow

Ten @ NE

Targets:

Matt Judon (OLB, NE) — Judon and the Patriots have had a wonderful marriage. Judon was in a heavy rotation in Baltimore over the last few years, and New England was desperate for a pass-rush threat after having busted multiple times in the draft. As a Patriot, Judon plays a ton of snaps (84% last week) and lives in opposing backfields. This week, he gets to chew on the #1 opponent for DLs. The Titans run it a ton and have had pass protection issues as of late. That’s a wonderful marriage of opportunity for Judon, Davon Godchaux, and this fierce New England D-line.

Avoids:

Jayon Brown (LB, Ten) — If you need him, start him. Both David Long and Rashaan Evans are out, so he and Monty Rice are the last men standing in the LB room. But Brown has a rough matchup this week. The Patriots are below average in every category of fantasy production to LBs, including 20.8 tackles per game, 1.6 TFL per game, and 0 forced fumbles per game. Plus, Brown is dealing with a quad injury.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

LB David Long, Jr., Ten - hamstring

LB Rashaan Evans, Ten - ankle

QUESTIONABLE

LB Jayon Brown, Ten - quad

OLB Harold Landry III, Ten - hamstring

CB Jackrabbit Jenkins, Ten - chest

DL Denico Autry, Ten - illness

CB Elijah Molden, Ten - groin

DT Christian Barmore, NE - knee

LB Dont’a Hightower, NE - ankle

LB Kyle Van Noy, NE - groin

LB JaWhaun Bentley, NE - ribs

Phi @ NYG

Targets:

None of note.

Avoids:

Tae Crowder (LB, NYG) — Crowder’s opponent this week hasn’t been particularly friendly to ILBs. The Eagles rank 30th in FPG to LBs, and most of that production tends to leak to the edges, so it’s the OLBs who tend to benefit. Just last week, OLB Kwon Alexander had 7 tackles, while ILB Demario Davis had 0. That’s an extreme example, but it illustrates the point that Crowder has his work cut out for him this week.

Notable Injuries:

PROBABLE

CB Adoree Jackson, NYG - quadricep

LAC @ Den

Targets:

Kyzir White (LB, LAC) — For the fifth straight game, White played at least 90% and had at least 8 tackles. We were concerned about the return of Kenneth Murray, but that hasn’t changed White’s playing time or production. He’s been an LB2+ over the last month and there’s nothing scary about this matchup, so keep firing up White in your lineups.

Avoids:

Malik Reed (OLB, Den) — Reed has had a good season so far, but he’s got a brutal matchup this week. The Chargers are a dismal opponent for both DLs (31st) and LBs (28th), both roles that Reed fills.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

CB Asante Samuel, Jr., LAC - concussion

S Alohi Gilman, LAC - quadricep

LAR @ GB

Targets:

Adrian Amos (S, GB) — Amos started the season hot with 19 tackles in his first two games. Since then, he’s settled into a 4-6 tackle option. This week, he’s likely to see more action than usual, as Matthew Stafford and the Rams create a top-10 amount of DB production. And with Kevin King doubtful, Rasul Douglas is also likely to get a few more snaps than usual so he’s a sleeper option in this matchup.

Avoids:

De’Vondre Campbell (LB, GB) — Say it with me: you’re probably still starting him, but he’s got a bad matchup. Campbell has had a surprisingly strong start to the season, recording at least 9 tackles in five of his first seven games (including three games of 12 or more tackles). But he’s cooled off as of late, failing to post more than 7 tackles in a game in four straight weeks. That’s not bad — honestly, it’s what we expected before the season started — but it’s obviously not the double-digit tackle weeks we had just started getting comfortable with. He’ll have a hard time hitting that double-digit tackle mark this week, as the Rams are dead last in FPG to LBs this season.

Notable Injuries:

DOUBTFUL

CB Kevin King, GB - hip/knee

Min @ SF

Targets:

None of note.

Avoids:

Azeez Al-Shaair (LB, SF) — Al-Shaair has been a sneaky play ever since Dre Greenlaw went on IR. But Greenlaw has been practicing all week and could return, sending Al-Shaair to the bench. It’s possible they ease Greenlaw in, making both Al-Shaair and Greenlaw risky plays this week. But it’s doubtful that Al-Shaair will play enough to be LB3 productive for us, even in a solid matchup against the 6th-best opponent for LB production.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

DE Everson Griffen, Min - personal

QUESTIONABLE

LB Anthony Barr, Min - knee

S Camryn Bynum, Min - ankle

DT Maurice Hurst, SF - calf

CB Josh Norman, SF - rib

Cle @ Bal

Targets:

Anthony Walker, Jr. (LB, Cle) — Walker has another good matchup this week, as the Ravens are still running a ton (despite throwing it more as of late). Their 24.6 LB tackles per game are 4th most while their 30.14 FPG to LBs are 3rd-most.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

DT Malik Jackson, Cle - knee

DE Jadeveon Clowney, Cle - neck, wrist, knee

LB Sione Takitaki, Cle - shoulder

LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Cle - ankle

CB Troy Hill, Cle - neck

DE Calais Campbell, Bal - concussion

DT Brandon Williams, Bal - shoulder

CB Tavon Young, Bal - foot/knee

CB Anthony Everett, Bal - thigh

CB Jimmy Smith, Bal - neck

Sea @ Was

Targets:

Jordyn Brooks (LB, Sea) — Brooks has been dealing with a hip issue for the past few weeks and has been limited in practice, so watch his status this weekend. But if he plays, I’m expecting a busy game for the second-year LB. Washington is a top-10 option for opposing LB production, creating 23.5 tackles per game to LBs, along with 1.8 TFL and 1.1 sacks. Brooks plays Monday Night, so watch his status carefully so you’re not burned if he’s inactive.

Avoids:

Kendall Fuller (CB, Was) — Fuller has been a reliable DB3/CB2 for us, but he’s got a tough matchup this week. The Seahawks are last in FPG to DBs this season. Fuller had a bad matchup last week (just 2 tackles against the run-heavy Panthers), so hang in there with Fuller. He should bounce back against the Raiders next week.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

CB Tre Brown, Sea - knee

QUESTIONABLE

LB Jordyn Brooks, Sea - hip

CB D.J. Reed, Sea - knee

LB Cole Holcomb, Was - shoulder

Justin has been holding down the IDP fort for John Hansen and the crew since 2015. In addition to projections and articles, he also hosts an all-IDP podcast called “The IDP Corner,” where he is joined by his fellow FantasyPoints IDP contributor Thomas Simons, along with other special guests.

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