San Francisco 49ers (4-5, 3-6 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7, 4-5), 1 p.m.
Brolley’s 49ers Stats and Trends
The 49ers notched their first home victory last week since the last time they played the Rams at Levi’s Stadium on Oct. 18, 2020.
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against teams with losing records.
The 49ers are 4-1 toward overs in their last five games as a favorite.
Elijah Mitchell carried a season-high 27 times last week despite playing a season-low 53% of the snaps in Jeff Wilson’s first action of the season — he posted 10/28 rushing. It could be Wilson’s backfield this week after Mitchell sustained a broken finger and needed surgery. HC Kyle Shanahan is optimistic he’ll play but we’ll see how it plays out this weekend. Wilson would likely be the top runner with JaMycal Hasty (ankle) working as the passing back. The Jaguars are giving up just 3.7 YPC but they’re giving up the fourth-most rushing TDs per game (1.0) to RBs.
Jimmy Garoppolo has accounted for multiple TDs in three straight games after completing 15/19 passes for 182 yards (9.6 YPA) and two touchdowns against the Rams. Jimmy G is averaging 9.5 YPA since his dud on Sunday Night Football against the Colts in Week 7. The Jaguars’ defense has been playing well the last two weeks, limiting Josh Allen and Carson Wentz to 5.5 YPA with no touchdowns for a combined 19.7 FP.
Deebo Samuel has hung double-digit FP in every game this season, including five games with 22+ and three performances with 30+ FP. He saw season-low five targets, which he turned into 5/97/1 receiving, but he finished with a season-high 10 touches as he added 5/36/1 rushing. Stefon Diggs posted 6/85 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
Brandon Aiyuk has turned a corner but he’s still the clear third receiving option after posting 3/26 receiving on four targets (21% share) last week. He’s at least a full-time player the last three weeks with a snap share of 88% or better in each of those contests, and he owns a 24% target share in that span. The Jaguars are giving up the seventh-most receiving yards per game (182.2) to WRs.
Patient George Kittle owner’s have been paid off with two performances with 5+ catches, 50+ yards, and a touchdown in each of his first two games back from his calf injury. The Jaguars haven’t given up a TD to a tight end in their last four games, but they’re still allowing a generous 8.8 YPT to the position.
Brolley’s Jaguars Stats and Trends
The Jaguars are 7-2 toward unders and they’ve played under the total in four straight games.
Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games at home.
James Robinson saw just 59% of the snaps in his first game back from his heel injury, but he turned in a solid 12/57/1 rushing and 4/27 receiving against the Colts. He’s scored 18+ FP with six combined TDs in each of his last five full games. The 49ers are giving up the 14th-most FPG (24.0) to RBs this season, but they limited Darrell Henderon and Sony Michel to a combined 9/51 rushing and 6/21 receiving last week.
Jacksonville’s passing game is currently broken with Trevor Lawrence averaging a miserable 4.5 YPA and 172.7 passing yards per game in his last three contests — he scored just 29.5 FP combined in Weeks 8-10. The 49ers limited Matthew Stafford to 243/1 passing with two INTs last week.
Jamal Agnew is the only WR who can be trusted in Jacksonville right now with double-digit FP in four of his last five games. Marvin Jones has fallen below nine FP in five of his last six games while Laviska Sheanult has topped seven FP just once in his last five games. Agnew is pacing the group with a 19% target share since D.J. Chark left the lineup in Week 4, followed by Jones at 18% and Laviska at 16%. The 49ers are giving up the 10th-fewest FPG (34.2) to WRs this season.
Dan Arnold is actually leading the team with a 20% share since Chark ended his season. He posted 5/67 receiving on seven targets (20% share) with a two-point conversion against the Colts in Week 10, which gives him double-digit FP in four of his last five games. James O’Shaughnessy has been designated to return from the IR, and we’ll see if he cuts into Arnold’s role some since Urban Meyer loves to ruin good things. The 49ers haven’t allowed 40+ receiving yards to a TE since Week 1, but Tyler Higbee did score a touchdown last week.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Pace (seconds in between plays): 27.8 (23rd)
Plays per game: 64.4 (25th)
Pass: 58.9% (20th) | Run: 41.1% (13th)
Pace: 26.2 (8th)
Plays per game: 66.4 (19th)
Pass: 60.8% (16th) | Run: 39.2% (17th)
All pace / play data is from the last eight weeks.
Over the last eight weeks, the Jaguars have quietly morphed into one of the most run-heavy offenses. Jacksonville is running the ball 49% of the time in neutral situations (when the game is within a score in the 1st-3rd quarter) and that is the second-highest clip in this span behind only the Bears (52%). It’s definitely not always pretty, but the Jags’ sticking to the run is a huge part of the reason why James Robinson is back to his 2020 form.
Jimmy Garoppolo likely earned himself a few more weeks as the starter after his MNF performance against the Rams last week. San Francisco dominated that game from start to finish and HC Kyle Shanahan ended up calling 44 runs to just 20 passes in the blowout. As strong road favorites, I’d expect another run-heavy plan here – especially if Eli Mitchell is able to play.
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
Outside of their 31-7 defeat to Seattle, the turnaround by the Jacksonville defense since Week 6 has been noteworthy. During that time, they’ve reduced their PPG allowance by 30%. The Jags have also restricted QBs (13.1) and RBs (20.2) to the ninth-fewest FPG, and TEs to the fewest over the last four weeks (4.8). The one position to sidestep these improvements is WR. Jacksonville is providing WRs with 37.3 FPG on the season (ninth-most), and 35.6 over the last four (11th). A search into the heart of their issues defending WRs brings us to Tyson Campbell’s front porch. The ‘21 second-rounder is bleeding 1.89 YPCS (third-most), 0.34 FP/CS (10th), 0.29 AY/CS (21st), and a 117.8 TPR (ninth-highest). If those numbers weren’t enough, he’s also allowed the second-highest rate of receptions of 20-or-more yards. It’s beyond understanding how Campbell has managed to only be the 21st-most targeted outside corner with these metrics. It shouldn’t take much convincing to favor Deebo Samuel this or any week.
Even Trevor Lawrence isn’t immune from the rookie blues. His Week 10 performance was not good. This is no doubt a humbling experience for a kid that had found success at every turn during his football career. But a long list of talented QBs have struggled during their first tastes of NFL reality. The light will eventually turn on for Sunshine. Until then, he is not a fantasy target.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
There’s not a player in football who has a role like Deebo Samuel, who absolutely crushed the Rams last week as both a wide receiver and a running back. And he’s kicking ass as both.
#49ers WR Deebo Samuel might not be a “traditional” No. 1 receiver but given all that he means to the Niners’ offense, it’s time to start re-thinking what that means. Nine games into the season, Samuel is establishing himself as 1 of 1… https://t.co/yY9UQcSMVd— Nick Wagoner (@nwagoner) November 17, 2021
Check out these insane Deebo numbers from Graham in the Week 11 Stat-Pack:
Deebo Samuel is averaging 6.1 receiving yards gained per route run when lined up out wide, which is second-best in the league behind only Davante Adams (6.5).
Deebo is also averaging 4.9 yards per route run when lined up in the slot, which is fifth-best.
Deebo is putting up… get this… 13.2 yards after the catch per reception (!!!) when aligned in the slot. This is easily tops in the league ahead of second-best WR Rondale Moore (9.6).
Deebo has accounted for 42% of the 49ers receiving yardage, which is the highest rate in the league. Cooper Kupp (40%) ranks second-best.
It’s likely RB Elijah Mitchell (finger surgery) doesn’t play this week, though coach Kyle Shanahan said he was optimistic earlier in the week (Mitchell is listed as doubtful). If he doesn’t go, we could see more Deebo backfield action alongside Jeff Wilson, because there is no indication that Trey Sermon has returned from his Shanahan-sponsored trip to the center of the Earth.
Not only has Jimmy Garoppolo locked himself into a longer leash, Trey Lance hasn't played a snap since his Week 5 start— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) November 18, 2021
As for the Jaguars… we’ve gotten to the point where TE Dan Arnold is their best receiver. I mean, all credit to Arnold, but that’s isn’t exactly going to be a situation that puts young QB Trevor Lawrence in a place to succeed.
Here’s Scott Barrett from Week 11 Start/Sit on the Jags’ unlikely star:
“Arnold has hit at least 60 receiving yards and led the Jaguars in receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games. For perspective, Darren Waller has only 3 games with 60 or more yards all year. Since Week 5, Arnold ranks 3rd in targets per game (8.4), 4th in YPG (58.8), 5th in XFP/G (13.1), and 7th in FPG (10.9). His matchup looks tough on paper, as the 49ers rank 9th-best by FPG allowed to opposing TEs (9.7), but they rank perfectly neutral if schedule-adjusted (-0.3). And matchups don’t really matter too much to TEs unless at the polar extremes. So, I’ll still be starting Arnold this week as a low-end- to fringe-TE1.”
Arnold and RB James Robinson are really the only two Jaguar fantasy options who are even close to trustworthy. But Robinson has been dinged up of late, adding a knee injury this week to the heel injury that kept him out in Week 9.
Robinson is expected to play against the 49ers (he’s officially questionable), and while his snap share was below 60% last week, he still got a ton of work against the Colts. Here’s Graham from Stat-Pack:
Coming off his ankle/heel injury, James Robinson was loaded up with 17 opportunities (carries + targets) while Carlos Hyde had just four.
Over his last five games that he’s finished, Robinson is averaging 19 touches, 108.4 scrimmage yards, and 21.04 fantasy points per game.
Robinson’s weekly finishes in this stretch: RB4, RB8, RB12, RB12, and RB12.
You have to start Robinson if he goes, but it is a little disconcerting that he is now dealing with two injuries.