DFS First Look: Week 10

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DFS First Look: Week 10

Week 10 is here! We have some value opening up due to injury and two games that are clear targets (LAR/SEA + ARI/BUF). For everyone that rostered Justin Jackson last week, I feel your pain.

If you are new to this article, this will be a source for you to get all the necessary information that you might not recognize quickly looking through the slate early in the week. The goal of this first look is to help leave no stone unturned before the week kicks off. Being able to project for different potential outcomes of players and games is a crucial trait to have as a DFS player. Here is my first look and deep dive on the Week 9 slate:

Game Script Targets

Browns -3.5 (vs. HOU)

RB Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb could not have picked a better week to come back. The Texans are allowing most YPC to RBs (5.44), most ruFPG (22) and 4th most schedule adjusted points allowed to RBs. Hunt had tough luck with Wyatt Teller, the Browns best offensive lineman, getting hurt in Week 5 when he took the reins from Chubb. Teller is also expected to return this week alongside Chubb. That would put the Browns OL vs Texans DL in the run game one of biggest mismatches of the week. Chubb was playing at an elite level before going down to injury. He had two straight 100+ yard, two touchdown games in a row. Despite playing in 4 games, he still has the most 20+ yard carries (6).

A positive game script has proven to work in Chubb’s favor. Since the start of last season in games where the Browns win by 3+, Chubb is averaging 19.5 FPG. Out of that split, he is averaging 13.5 FPG.

Rams -1.5 (vs. SEA)

WR Tyler Lockett (SEA, @ LAR)

WR Robert Woods (LAR, vs. SEA)

WR Cooper Kupp (LAR, vs. SEA)

One of the easiest games to stack this week is the Rams vs Seahawks. The Seahawks have yet to be in a game with under 50 points scored. They have allowed the most plays per game to opposing offenses (73 per 60 mins). The Rams should be able to take advantage of that and the two players to look at right away are Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. Their combined team target share is 46.1% so you are nearly getting 50% of the team targets by stacking them.

By far the best way to attack the Seahawks has been in the passing game as their run defense has been their strength. They have been the 11th toughest schedule adjusted matchup for RBs but far and away the easiest schedule adjusted matchup for WRs. They are allowing 23.5 FPG over their opponent's average (most) and the second closest is 8.4 FPG.

To bring it back on the Seahawks offense, I am banking on a Tyler Lockett week. DK Metcalf has been very hard to slow down as of late but a similar style cornerback to Jalen Ramsey in Patrick Peterson did get the better of him. The other outside corner for the Rams Darious Williams has been quietly good for them as well. Among CBs with 50%+ of coverage snaps, Ramsey and Darious Williams rank 3rd and 11th respectively in fewest yards/snap allowed. Overall the Rams have been the toughest matchup for outside WRs (13.6 FPG allowed). That should open the door for Lockett who has played 60% of his snaps in the slot.

Panthers +4.5 (vs. TB)

WR Curtis Samuel (CAR, vs. TB)

In his contract year, Curtis Samuel has turned it on at the perfect time. He is coming off his best game as a pro (9/105/1) and showing off his ability to be a gadget player as a runner. In a good game environment against the Chiefs, Samuel saw a season-high 61 snaps and ran 39 routes. It projects as a positive game script (4.5-point underdogs) and Christian McCaffrey is doubtful to play freeing up potential opportunities for Samuel. What makes Samuel unique as a WR play is his added floor that might fly under the radar. He has gotten 3-4 carries in 5 of 8 games. Per the RotoViz GPS Matchup Rater, Samuel has been targeted most often in the area of the field that the Bucs have been the most susceptible this season (short left).

Early Targets

WR Jakeem Grant (MIA, vs. LAC)

Jakeem Grant sticks out as one of best values to start the week. His $3,000 salary on DK ranks as the 7th best value (2.73 FPTS/$) per our projections. Preston Williams showed good chemistry with Tua Tagovailoa but suffered the injury and was placed on the IR this week. The Dolphins might now regret trading Isaiah Ford away as the WR group is very thin, but Grant should not be complaining. As the replacement for Williams, he ran the most routes behind DeVante Parker. Parker does draw the toughest matchup on the Chargers in Casey Hayward. It is also likely that Tua has more reps with Grant from training camp and practice while working behind Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Dolphins have a healthy 25.50 implied points and it’s a game environment upgrade against a fast-paced Chargers offense (8th fastest neutral pace).

RB Duke Johnson (HOU, @ CLE)

The revenge narrative of the week is shaping up to be Duke Johnson against his former team. This is all pending that David Johnson does not play, which seems likely as of now. Duke will step into a role that should be conducive to his skill set as a receiver. David Johnson has run the 4th most routes at RB this year so we can expect Duke to be towards the top of routes run in Week 10. He showed that he will not be game script dependent. He got 20 touches last week while ahead against the Jags. After DJ went out of the game, Duke got 100% of the RB touches and had a 81% snap share in the full game. As 3.5-point underdogs the game script will work more in his favor. With little to no experience behind him on the depth chart, he has 70%+ snap and 15+ touch potential again.

WR Terry McLaurin (WAS, @ DET)

Terry McLaurin has been Mr. Reliable this year. As TJ Hernandez points out on Twitter, Terry McLauin is the only player with at least 20% of team targets in every game this season. He has

only one game under 11 fantasy points. His 16.2 XFP/game (5th highest among WRs) highlights the trustworthy usage. Now he has a matchup against Matt Patricia’s “defense”, that will not give McLaurin any trouble. On the outside, he will see one of the most susceptible cornerback matchups in Jeff Okudah. He has allowed the 2nd most yards/snap among CBs (50%+ of coverage snaps). The game as a whole projects to be one of the most friendly game environments. Both teams are Top 10 in neutral game script pace.

Early Fades

RB {Darrell Henderson|RB|LAR}} (LAR, vs. SEA)

Darrell Henderson is in one of the best game environments of the week, but my ownership will be on the Rams passing attack here. The Seahawks are allowing 3.6 YPC to RBs and Sean McVay has shown to be a tough coach to predict with RB touch distributions. Off the bye week, Cam Akers could be given a chance to win the job over Henderson. Henderson’s 38.4% snap rate and 1.9 targets per game make him a limited upside play this week.

WR Chris Godwin (TB, @ CAR)

The Buccaneers passing attack is gonna be a tough one to predict week to week. What we do know is that this projects to be a negative game script for Godwin (5-point favorites). We also know that Antonio Brown poses a major threat to his target share. In the first game with AB, Godwin had a 15.8% target share and his lowest XFP on the year (9.9). Also working against him is that the Panthers have been one of the best defenses at limiting slot WRs. They are the 3rd toughest matchup for WRs in the slot.

WR D.J. Chark (JAX, @ GB)

My fade call on Chark last week was an L about 10 minutes into the day last week. Chark scored on a 73-yard touchdown and was ready to make me eat my words. However, I am going back to the well this week. The long TD was a bit of a flukey play, and he will likely get shadow coverage against one of the toughest WR matchups this season in Jaire Alexander. In 8 games, Alexander has allowed just 139 yards, 59% catch rate, and the 3rd fewest yards per snap (0.57).

Pace of Play

Upgrades

Bills (@ ARI) - Bills 16th fastest neutral game script pace -> Cardinals fastest

Panthers (vs. TB) - Panthers 9th slowest neutral game pace -> Bucs 14th fastest

Dolphins (@ LAC) - Dolphins 8th slowest neutral game pace -> Chargers 8th fastest

Downgrades

Broncos (@ LVR) - Raiders 4th slowest neutral pace

Chargers (@ MIA) - Chargers 8th fastest neutral pace -> Dolphins 8th slowest

Projected Fast Pace Game:

Football Team vs Lions - Both teams Top 10 in neutral game script pace

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