2025 Week 6 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data, we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

The Data Suite (with the keen eye of lead charter Steve O’Rourke) allows me to analyze WR/CB fantasy matchups better than I was ever able to in the past.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

Then, later in the week, Ryan Heath examines schematic matchups for NFL Premium and All-In subscribers with his Advanced Matchups column. We believe we attack coverage matchups from every angle for our subscribers.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

Shadow Situations

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II vs. Jets WR Garrett Wilson

As predicted, Surtain shadowed AJ Brown last week against Philadelphia, aligning over Brown on 94.7% of his routes (a ridiculously high number for even a shadow situation). Brown had relative success on Surtain, catching 4 of 5 targets for 40 yards in his primary coverage. Brown had an opportunity for a walk-in deep-ball touchdown on a play on which he and Jalen Hurts were not on the same page, but it came when the Eagles motioned him into the slot and caught the Broncos in zone coverage — meaning Surtain wasn’t on him. And it speaks to Surtain’s dominance that 40 yards in his primary coverage is considered a success. So it should be a tough matchup for Wilson this week, who is coming off of a big statistical day against the Cowboys, catching 6 of 10 targets for 71 yards and a touchdown in perhaps the easiest matchup in the league.

But those numbers were inflated by garbage time — 5/55/1 of Wilson’s production came in the second half with the Jets down multiple scores to the Cowboys. So from a fantasy perspective (and betting perspective) he came through, but he did so in the league’s easiest matchup when the game was mostly out of hand.

I don’t know if he’ll have similar success this week. I have him as more of a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 this week, and I will be considering “under” props when the lines come out.

SHADOW ALERT! Jets CB Sauce Gardner vs. Broncos WR Courtland Sutton

As I wrote last week, both Gardner and Sutton were involved in shadow situations last week, and both had varying degrees of success.

Gardner mostly held George Pickens in check as Dak Prescott focused on getting the ball to TE Jake Ferguson and rookie WR Ryan Flournoy. Gardner allowed Pickens to catch just 2 passes on an 89.3% shadow rate… but one of them was a 43-yard TD, salvaging Pickens’ fantasy day in the second half.

Meanwhile, Sutton was targeted 8 times while in Quinyon Mitchell’s primary coverage, and had success in the matchup, with 6 catches for 81 yards. And it’s not like Mitchell’s coverage was poor… Sutton won several close reps in contested-catch situations, and he and QB Bo Nix were on the same page on several difficult throws.

So we know Nix will target Sutton aggressively in tight coverage. Some weeks, it’s paid off, and in others, Nix has paid the price with inaccurate throws and turnovers. Though we’ve charted Gardner as having surrendered 3 TDs in his primary coverage, I still consider this a difficult matchup. Given the style Nix plays, I’m just not sure we should care.

I consider Sutton a rock-solid WR2, and I’m giving Troy Franklin a minor upgrade to a low-end WR3/FLEX option.

All Systems Go

Chiefs WRs vs. Lions DBs

The injury bug is taking hold of Detroit yet again. The Lions had a strong pipeline of perimeter corners lined up for this season, with two youngsters in Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw developing next to veteran DJ Reed, the Lions’ premier free-agent signing this off-season. Well, Rakestraw’s season ended before it began with a shoulder ailment, meaning veteran Khalil Dorsey was now the top perimeter backup.

That was until Week 4, when he picked up a wrist injury… the same week Reed landed on IR with a hamstring injury. Arnold was holding down the fort in Week 5, before picking up a shoulder issue of his own (it was initially feared to be season-ending, but a second opinion was more optimistic). That means the Lions are down their top four perimeter CBs for the foreseeable future.

That, of course, has ripple effects across the team. Because they’re so shorthanded outside, they have to move top slot CB Amik Robertson there, where he’ll join veteran Rock Ya-Sin, who had played almost exclusively on special teams before last week. And Rakestraw was initially expected to be the backup slot CB as well… so the Lions are down to their third-string slot, veteran Avonte Maddox. He’s played a lot of football, but it’s hard to forget that the Eagles’ defense went from merely OK to elite last year when they benched Maddox for Cooper DeJean.

Meanwhile, the dinged-up Lions are catching Kansas City at the wrong time. While the Chiefs are just 2-3, there should be optimism about the offense. Over the last three games, Kansas City is first in success rate per dropback, while Patrick Mahomes had his two best games in terms of both completion percentage and passing yards the last two weeks — corresponding with the return of Xavier Worthy to the lineup.

Worthy’s return has allowed coach Andy Reid to get wacky with his receiver usage. In Week 5 against the Jaguars, four different Chief receivers ran 20 or more routes. Every one of them ran at least 36% of their routes from the slot, with Tyquan Thornton (55%) and Worthy (45.9%) leading the way. I think this is especially notable because in a secondary this decimated, I still believe the weak link to be Maddox, who played just 7 coverage snaps against the Bengals last week and allowed a 30-yard catch to Andrei Iosivas.

This game not being on the main slate sucks for DFS, but there is still a betting opportunity here. Worthy is a locked-in must-start WR1, while I will be looking at Thornton over props and longest reception props.

NOTE: Worthy (shoulder, ankle) did not practice on Thursday. We’ll see if he suits up, but I put money on Thornton props everywhere.

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan vs. Cowboys DBs

It took plenty of garbage time for it to happen last week, but Jets WR Garrett Wilson got there against this Cowboys secondary with 6/71/1 receiving, while Justin Fields threw for 283 yards. To be better analysts, we do need to take into account how players arrived at their numbers, but it’s still noteworthy that investment in the Jets paid off in Week 5.

It’s also worth noting that Dallas is scoring points with alacrity this year, ranking 4th in the league in scoring, while the 49.5 projected total of this game is the highest on the Week 6 DFS main slate. Carolina and QB Bryce Young had to play from behind last week, and Young made some highly impressive plays while doing so, despite some early struggles.

It would behoove Panthers coach Dave Canales to get McMillan — who has led the Panthers in receiving in every game so far this year — isolated on Kaiir Elam’s side as much as possible. The Cowboys play a ton of zone, and Elam just isn’t comfortable in it, surrendering a second-most 340 receiving yards and 0.54 FP/coverage snap in his primary coverage this year. He’s also allowed 4 receiving touchdowns, tied for 2nd-most in the league.

McMillan will be exceptionally popular for DFS, for good reason. But I’m also going to sprinkle some money on his touchdown prop, and bet he scores the first touchdown of his NFL career. I’d love to recommend either Xavier Legette or Hunter Renfrow for DFS here, but the fact that McMillan has dominated this passing game so far leaves me looking elsewhere for value.

NOTE: Keep an eye on Jalen Coker’s status. His practice window is open and he could make his season debut this week. He’d probably be more appealing than either Legette or Renfrow.

Steelers WR DK Metcalf vs. Browns DBs

I wasn’t initially planning on writing up this matchup, but the Browns made an interesting deal this week.

It definitely feels like the Jaguars wanted to get off of their commitment to Campbell, whom we have charted as having allowed a league-high 361 receiving yards in his primary coverage — perhaps due to a lack of scheme fit. Meanwhile, Newsome is 12th in the same category, but he has also done impressive work on Ja’Marr Chase (holding him catchless on 11 routes) and Justin Jefferson (holding him to 2/33 on 16 routes). Newsome is likely going to fetch a big contract this coming off-season, and with the Browns navigating the Deshaun Watson salary cap fiasco, they opted to try to get a better scheme fit with a potential change-of-scenery boost in Campbell.

Unfortunately for Cleveland, whether or not Campbell plays this week, Newsome was their primary RCB, where he would have seen Metcalf on the plurality of his routes. So Metcalf will either be running on the perimeter against a backup or someone learning a new defense, plus Denzel Ward (who has allowed 4 TD and a 6th-most 0.49 FP/coverage snap) on the other side of the formation.

It’s a boost to Metcalf. I’m not sure he’ll fetch significant popularity for DFS in such a low-total game, but the matchup is exploitable.

Rams WRs Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell vs. Ravens slot CB Keyon Martin

“Wow, Dolan, thanks for the research that tells me Puka might be a good play this week!” Well, OK, yeah. But hear me out on the other part of this.

No team allows more schedule-adjusted FPG to slot receivers than Baltimore (+8.1). In fact, that’s nearly double the second-place team (NYG, +4.4). And Baltimore is already down primary slot CB Marlon Humphrey — statistically, that’s not a big loss, because we have Humphrey charted as having allowed a league-high 0.56 FP/coverage snap. But it does mean that the Ravens are now working TJ Tampa (who is 3rd-worst in that same category) and the rookie Keyon Martin into bigger roles. Martin is an undersized, undrafted rookie out of Louisiana. He posted a 4.38 40-yard dash at his pro day, so he can run, but this is the exact kind of matchup the Rams will want to exploit. On the season, Atwell has run 66.7% of his routes from the slot, ahead of Nacua (43.7%) for first on the Rams. Puka will absolutely be popular for DFS and will likely break the slate. But what if Atwell — at $3500 — makes a big play? I wouldn’t count it out.

Eagles WRs vs. Giants DBs

The Eagles’ offense remains dysfunctional — they went outrageously pass-happy last week to appease AJ Brown, and it worked until it didn’t. Brown and Jalen Hurts’ miscommunication/effort issue/whatever on a 3rd-quarter failed deep ball meant the Eagles suffered their first loss in a long time instead of icing the game away.

Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley had just 6 carries in the game, and it led to a captain’s meeting this week.

Maybe I’m being stubborn and hanging onto my priors too much, but this has consistently happened with the Eagles under Nick Sirianni… and they almost always figure it out. And is there a better week to have everyone on the same page than against the Giants’ secondary?

We do have DeVonta Smith as having the best matchup — the Giants allow a 2nd-most +4.4 schedule-adjusted FPG to slot WRs, where slot CB Andru Phillips is struggling. But I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Eagles get Brown into the slot a few times, as they did on the ill-fated shot play last week (they drew zone coverage on that play and got Brown lined up on a safety, but the point remains).

Pump the Brakes

Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Eagles slot CB Cooper DeJean

After his unexpected breakout as a deep threat against Dallas’ woeful defense back in Week 2, Robinson has now failed to clear 30 receiving yards and 8.2 FP in three consecutive games. Philly allows the fewest YPRR (.84) and the second-fewest receiving YPG (39.4) to receivers aligned in the slot, as well as easily the league-lowest -9.8 schedule-adjusted FPG to slot receivers. It’s a brutal matchup with DeJean for Robinson, and especially brutal for a Giants team that has literally nothing on the perimeter with Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton hurt. The best hope Wan’Dale has to come through is low-aDOT volume — he caught 16 passes for just 66 yards in two games against the Eagles last season.

Colts WR Michael Pittman vs. Cardinals CB Will Johnson

The rookie Johnson doesn’t shadow, but he’s been one of the most impressive players in the league so far when healthy — which, of course, is the biggest issue for him. We have charted Johnson as having allowed just 9 catches for 71 yards on 17 targets in his primary coverage, and his presence on the perimeter is one of the main reasons the Cardinals are a slot-funnel defense — the Cardinals allow +3.3 schedule-adjusted FPG to slot receivers, 3rd-most in the NFL. At a perfectly neutral 0.0 allowed to outside receivers, they are 17th in the NFL, so it’s a much more exploitable matchup inside.

I’d love to recommend Colts slot WR Josh Downs as a play, but I’m afraid he’s not on the field enough to really go nuts with it — he runs 82% of his routes from the slot, but he’s had an under 60% team route share. I suppose you could do worse for $4300 on DraftKings.

As for Pittman, I think he’s more of a WR3 this week with Alec Pierce (concussion) expected back. He’s not very expensive on DK at $5400, however.