Welcome to Week 6 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player who is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the NFL data in this article is from Fantasy Points and specifically curated from our Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last four seasons, and we have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE, top-20 plays at RB, and top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week, matchup-based plays for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.
The Houston Texans and Minnesota Vikings are the two teams on bye.
Good luck this week!
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (TNF)
Start ‘Em
Jalen Hurts – The Eagles were +22% more pass-heavy than expected last week, which was a swing too hard the other way after calling a top-5 offense by run rate in Weeks 1-4. Philadelphia will likely want to be more pass-heavy than they were at the start of the season, but not to that extreme. Hurts dropped back to pass 44 times, which probably wasn’t the right call against the Broncos pass rush (10.6% sack rate). This is a much easier matchup. The Giants pass rush hasn’t been as good as expected (4.7% sack rate).
Saquon Barkley – After taking 18 or more handoffs in Weeks 1-4, Barkley had just 6 carries for 30 yards in Week 5. The Eagles haven’t blocked as well for Saquon this season, opening up 1.8 adjusted yards before contact (15th). This is an ideal spot for him to get going on the ground against a Giants front-seven that’s allowing the third-most YPC (5.1).
Dallas Goedert – One of a few TEs who play nearly every single snap, Goedert (80%) ranks TE3 in route share this season. He saw a season-high nine targets last week but only turned them into 3/19/1 receiving. Goedert does not have a high ceiling, but he’s always on the board as a lower-end TE1. He’s finished as the TE15 or better in weekly scoring in 10 out of his last 12 full games.
FLEX Plays
Cam Skattebo – Over the last three weeks, Skattebo has turned his bell cow 64 touches into 15.2 Half-PPR FPG (RB14). The Giants are getting Tyrone Tracy (shoulder) back this week, but this is likely going to be Skattebo’s backfield moving forward. He nearly doubled up Tracy by expected fantasy points (16.0 to 8.8) back in their last full game together in Week 2. The Eagles haven’t allowed many explosive runs, but they’re still giving up the seventh-most YPC (4.4).
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith – The primary beneficiary of the Eagles actually trying to decide to throw the ball last week was Smith (8/114 receiving) while Brown (5/43 receiving) was held in check in the tougher matchup with Surtain. This is an ideal spot for Brown to bounce back. The Giants are playing the second-most man coverage (43%), and Brown leads Smith by a massive margin in targets per route run vs. man-to-man (0.40 to 0.21).
Stream ‘Em
Theo Johnson – The Giants are down their two top perimeter receivers, and Johnson just set a season-high in targets (7) last week. He’s actually leading the Giants in first read targets (29%) over the last two weeks. Johnson is on the board as a streamer on volume alone, but this is not an easy matchup against an Eagles LB/S corps that’s allowing the fourth-fewest schedule adjusted fantasy points to TEs.
Sit ‘Em
Jaxson Dart – Thanks to his rushing ability, Dart has been a solid streamer over the last two weeks, notching QB11 and QB14 scoring weeks. He’s run for 54 or more yards in back-to-back games, but the passing attack has struggled without Malik Nabers. The Giants have nothing left on the perimeter with Darius Slayton (hamstring) out. This is not the spot to play Dart again as a streamer with the Eagles, allowing the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.
Wan’Dale Robinson – If only he could play the Cowboys every week. Since shredding Dallas in Week 2 for 8/142/1 receiving, Robinson has turned his 16 targets into 70 yards over his last three games. The Eagles have erased opposing slot receivers to the second-fewest yards per game (39.4).
Tyrone Tracy
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (London | 9:30a)
Start ‘Em
Bo Nix – We were off of Nix last week and he only managed a QB20 scoring result vs. Eagles, but I see this as a perfect spot for him to find a ceiling again. The Jets secondary isn’t good. Only the Bears (0.56) are allowing more passing fantasy points per dropback than New York (0.55). The Jets pass rush also isn’t winning, which is further compounding their issues in the secondary. New York is only pressuring the QB on 31% of opponents’ dropbacks (fourth-lowest rate).
Courtland Sutton – Over his last 16 games (including playoffs), Sutton has 86/1169/9 receiving (on 125 targets). That’s worth 13.4 Half-PPR FPG (WR14). Sutton just shredded in a tough matchup last week for 8/99 receiving, and he’ll catch a struggling Jets secondary here that’s allowing the second-most yards per route run (2.4) to opposing outside receivers. He’s borderline Must Start.
Justin Fields – It certainly hasn’t been pretty to watch at times, but Fields has QB2, QB15, and QB13 scoring weeks wedged in between his nightmare Weeks 2 vs. Buffalo (QB33). This is not an ideal matchup at all. Denver’s pass rush is going to tee off against a Jets offensive line that’s allowing a league-high 53% pressure rate. Fields will have to speed up his operation if he’s going to have a successful day passing – his 2.9-second time to throw is third-slowest. At least he runs a ton. Fields leads all QBs in rushing yards per game (51). He’s a low-end QB1.
Breece Hall – Took a season-high share of the RB carries (93%) without Braelon Allen (knee) last week. Hall’s big role on early downs and short yardage will keep him on the low-end RB1 radar for the rest of the season. Isaiah Davis cutting in on passing downs (23 routes to Hall’s 19) matters little because Hall gets the ball when he’s on the field. He has five or more targets in three straight games.
J.K. Dobbins – Continues to cruise behind the Broncos top-3 offensive line. Dobbins has tallied up at least 80 scrimmage yards in four straight games. He’s not playing very much in the passing game, but he still has firm control over this backfield after taking 20 carries to RJ Harvey’s four last week. He remains a rock solid RB2.
Garrett Wilson – At long last, Wilson is turning his great volume (9.2 targets per game | WR5) into consistent production (15.7 FPG | WR6). He’s a Must Start for the rest of the season… but just not in this matchup. Fields will be running for his life against the Broncos pass rush, and Wilson has to deal with Pat Surtain. We’re projecting him as more of a WR2.
Mason Taylor – Over the last three weeks, Taylor has earned 23% of the Jets targets. This ranks TE3 and trails only Jake Ferguson (26%) and Trey McBride (24%) in this span. He’s leaped up from Streamer to weekly Start ‘Em status on this elite volume alone. Taylor just set a season-high in route share (82%), his third such game above 80% this season.
Sit ‘Em
RJ Harvey – After seeing an uptick in usage in Week 4, it didn’t stick vs. Eagles in Week 5. Harvey ran fewer pass routes (13) than Tyler Badie (8). With no pathway to weekly touches, Harvey is just a contingent upside RB4 for the rest of the season.
Troy Franklin – Since going for 8/89/1 receiving in Weeks 2, Franklin has managed to turn his 17 targets into just 9/98 receiving over the last three weeks. This is a pretty good matchup for him. The Jets allow the ninth-most yards per game (76.4) to opposing slot receivers, which is where Franklin runs 56% of his routes.
Evan Engram – Still just a part-time player. He has earned 6 and 7 targets, but has played on just 59% and 54% of the pass plays over the last two weeks.
Marvin Mims
Stash ‘Em
Isaiah Davis
Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts
Must Start
Jonathan Taylor
Tyler Warren – Through five games, Warren has nearly as many receiving yards (307) as Brock Bowers did at this point of his rookie season (313 yards in Weeks 1-5). He’s finished inside of the top-12 scoring TEs in 4-of-5 starts. Arizona is allowing the fifth-most yards per game (67.6) to opposing tight ends.
Start ‘Em
Daniel Jones – Since his 29 point game in Week 1, Jones has settled in as a lower-end starter option with QB9, QB11, QB27, and QB17 scoring weeks. The Cardinals have played solid in the secondary, but their pass rush is struggling and are bottom-10 in pressure rate. Jones is balling out in the best environment of his career, averaging a stellar 8.6 YPA. His career average with the Giants was 6.5 YPA. Jones has only taken four sacks all season. He’s just not run at all over the last two games (2 carries, 1 yard).
Trey McBride – It has been a rough start for the Elite TE strategy. Through five games, McBride is only TE9 by fantasy points per game. The volume has been strong – he has at least seven targets in every game – but this low ceiling passing offense is dragging him down.
Michael Pittman – Tied as WR16 with Davante Adams in Half-PPR FPG (12.9). He’s run hot on TDs and his volume is WR3-worthy (WR31 in targets per game and first read target share), but that really can’t be held against him because the Colts have been involved in three blowouts already. Pittman catches another good matchup this week against a Cardinals secondary that gives up the sixth-most yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers.
FLEX Plays
Michael Carter – Easily led this backfield last week with 59% of the snaps while taking 18-of-25 RB carries. Carter also led Emari Demercado on passing downs, running 15 routes (five targets) to Demercado’s nine routes (0 targets). Add it all up, and Carter was RB5 by expected FP in Week 5. Teams are running reasonably well on the Colts (4.32 YPC allowed | ninth-most). Carter is a pretty good RB2/FLEX.
Marvin Harrison – The breakout second year hasn’t happened yet. The vibes are so bad that Harrison said he would be “excited” if backup Jacoby Brissett gets a chance to start this week. He’s down bad! Harrison is tied with Rashid Shaheed as the WR27 in Half-PPR FPG (10.5). 38 wide receivers are averaging more targets per game than Harrison. As always, he’s a WR3/FLEX play.
Sit ‘Em
Kyler Murray – Kyler has been the definition of “meh” for fantasy this season, finishing as the QB16, QB16, QB22, QB16, and QB18 in weekly output. That’s replacement-level production. After flopping in an ideal matchup last week (vs. Titans), I’m out. Murray has regressed. He’s averaging career lows by yards per pass attempt, yards per game, and sack rate. He didn’t practice on Wednesday (foot).
Emari Demercado
Josh Downs
Alec Pierce
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens
Must Start
Puka Nacua – The runaway WR1 and most valuable player overall in fantasy right now, Nacua has racked up 126/1532/5 receiving and 14/98/2 rushing (19.1 Half-PPR FPG) over his last 14 games that weren’t cut short by injury/ejection. Baltimore is allowing a league-high 23.4 FPG to opposing slot receivers – Nacua lines up inside on 44% of his routes.
Kyren Williams – It doesn’t matter how many times he fumbles, HC Sean McVay loves Kyren like a son. He just set a new season-high in snaps at 91%. Baltimore can be had through the air and on the ground – they’ve given up the fourth-most rushing yards per game (130.2) so far. He’s a strong RB1 here.
Start ‘Em
Matthew Stafford – Absolutely dealing right now. Stafford started slow in Weeks 1-3 (QB20, QB18, QB14 scoring weeks) before absolutely destroying the Colts and 49ers over the last two weeks for a combined 764 yards and 6 TDs. Baltimore’s beat-up defense is allowing the second-most passing FPG (21.0) after they were just lit on fire by C.J. Stroud (244 yards and 4 TDs on 27 pass attempts). The Rams are more pass-heavy this season than in previous years, ranking fifth in pass rate over expectation.
Davante Adams – While his teammate Nacua (12.4) leads all receivers by a wide margin in targets per game, Adams is quietly WR6 with nine targets/game. At WR3 by expected fantasy points, Adams still looks like a good buy attached to the white hot Stafford.
FLEX Plays
Derrick Henry – Without Lamar, he’s a volume-based RB2/FLEX. Henry has averaged 13.6 Half-PPR FPG in nine losses with the Ravens compared to 20.4 FPG in their 13 victories. The Rams are playing the run extremely well, allowing just 3.4 YPC (fifth-fewest).
Zay Flowers – Survived with 5/72 receiving (on five targets) last week. The Ravens offense was so pathetic vs. Texans – they only managed 43 plays and possessed the ball for 23 minutes in total. Yikes. The Rams are burnable in the secondary, if we’re looking for positives. Los Angeles allows the fifth-most FPG to opposing receivers.
Sit ‘Em
Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely – Andrews’ route share has fallen in four straight games (79% > 68% > 58% > 52%). He’s finished as the TE17 or worse in weekly scoring in 4-of-5 games. Likely has earned just one target over the last two weeks.
Cooper Rush – Come back soon, Lamar.
Rashod Bateman
Stash ‘Em
Blake Corum
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Start ‘Em
Quinshon Judkins – Despite not practicing in all of training camp, Judkins is currently RB5 in rushing yards per game (86.8). The rookie is just an absolute freak. Judkins’ surrounding offense is quite bad, but he will remain the focal point for the Browns all season long. The Steelers are allowing 5.3 YPC and a 59% success rate on gap blocking concepts, which is predominantly what the Browns are using for Judkins (60% of his carries are off of gap blocking).
David Njoku – In Dillon Gabriel’s first start, Njoku set season highs in targets (8) and first reads (29% share) en route to his first score better than TE15 on a weekly basis this year (6/67/1 receiving). Tight end is so thin this season that I’m willing to go back to Njoku as a lower-end starter. This is a great matchup here. The Steelers have allowed the fourth-most schedule adjusted fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
FLEX Plays
Jaylen Warren – After missing Week 4 with a knee injury, Warren is off the injury report. He will play. Prior to the injury, Warren was shaping up as one of the best value picks in fantasy. His role was RB10-worthy by expected fantasy points and he was the clear leader in short-yardage and goal-line situations with 10 snaps to Kenneth Gainwell’s four inside-the-10. This matchup is brutal against Cleveland’s league-best run defense (2.9 YPC allowed). I’m treating Warren as a RB2/FLEX this week.
D.K. Metcalf – While he’s crushed man coverages throughout his career, that hasn’t been the case so far this season. Metcalf is averaging a lousy 0.71 yards per route run when facing man-to-man through four games in Pittsburgh. Overall, this role has just been mid. Metcalf ranks WR50 in targets per game (5.5) and WR52 in expected fantasy points per game. Mid! If he gets back to his old self vs. man coverage, Metcalf has a high Week 6 ceiling as a WR3/FLEX. The Browns play man coverage on 40% of their pass snaps.
Sit ‘Em
Jerry Jeudy – Has finished as WR32, WR52, WR92, WR45, and WR80 in Weeks 1-5.
Harold Fannin – Just set a season-low in routes (47% share). Fannin has just 14 receptions for 110 yards and a TD over the last four weeks since he had 7/63 receiving in Week 1.
Calvin Austin – Didn’t practice on Wednesday (shoulder).
Jonnu Smith
Aaron Rodgers – Only in play in SuperFlex leagues.
Isaiah Bond
Dillon Gabriel
Stash ‘Em
Kenneth Gainwell
Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars
Must Start
Jaxson Smith-Njigba – The Jaguars are much improved on defense, but their secondary is getting shelled for the second-most FPG (25.0) by outside wide receivers. Jacksonville just traded CB Tyson Campbell away to Cleveland in exchange for Greg Newsome.
Start ‘Em
Travis Etienne – Over the last four weeks, Etienne has kept a stranglehold over this backfield. He leads Bhayshul Tuten by a wide margin in carries (61 to 22) and snaps (61% to 22%). You're going to keep playing Etienne as a RB2, but this is a nasty matchup. Seattle is the only run defense that has yet to allow an explosive run of 15 or more yards. Their 3.0 YPC allowed ranks second-fewest.
FLEX Plays
Brian Thomas – Through five weeks, Thomas has finished as fantasy’s WR37, WR61, WR43, WR35, and WR31. His role has not been as nearly as bad as the production indicates – Thomas is WR22 in expected fantasy points – but his poor play, combined with scattershot chemistry with Trevor Lawrence, has harpooned his season. Among the 72 WRs with at least 100 routes this season, just 73% of Thomas’ targets have been catchable (WR46).
Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet – The Seahawks' backfield is a migraine headache for fantasy football. In their four games together, Walker leads this backfield in carries (52 to 48) and targets (7 to 4) while Charbonnet cleans up in short-yardage/goal-line situations. Charbonnet has out-snapped Walker by a 13 to 4 margin inside-the-10. Jacksonville has been sturdy vs. the run – they’re allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (72.6). They’re both just FLEX plays.
Sit ‘Em
Travis Hunter – He did get back up to a 74% route share in Week 5, marking a four-week high. However, he’s yet to see more than 16% of the targets in any game since Week 1. If you have to use Hunter this week, at least this is a good matchup. Seattle is allowing the fifth-most yards per game to slot receivers (88).
Trevor Lawrence – It’d be great if Lawrence would scramble and extend plays with his legs more often like he did last week. He’s still finished as a top-12 scoring QB in only four out of his last 15 starts.
Sam Darnold – Might be the most underrated QB in SuperFlex leagues. After a slow start in Week 1, Darnold has finished QB20, QB10, and QB17, and QB3 over the last month. Darnold is currently averaging a career-best 9.2 YPA and he’s cut his sack rate nearly in half (4.3%) compared to his previous base rate (7.7%).
Cooper Kupp
AJ Barner – After seeing three or fewer targets in each game from Weeks 1-4, Barner randomly popped for 7/53/2 receiving in last week’s shootout. He’s playing well enough to earn more playing time, but has been limited to a 61% route share (TE24).
Tory Horton
Dyami Brown and Parker Washington
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Must Start
De’Von Achane – Like we saw last week, Achane’s floor is so high even when he’s shut down on the ground. He’s finished as the RB16 or better in five straight games to open the season.
Start ‘Em
Justin Herbert – Since Week 1, when he finished QB5 vs. the Chiefs, Herbert has finished as QB14, QB12, QB26, and QB21 in weekly scoring. Herbert losing both of his starting tackles and now both of his RBs to injury will potentially make this offense extremely one-dimensional, allowing opposing defenses to pin their ears back against the pass. The Chargers are already third in pass rate over expectation and will now rely more on Herbert’s arm than ever to win games. This is an awesome matchup. Miami is allowing the sixth-most passing fantasy points per dropback.
Jaylen Waddle – As expected, Waddle operated as the Dolphins focal point without Tyreek Hill. He easily led Miami in first read targets with a massive 35% share. Darren Waller was second with a 19.2% share of first reads. In two games with Tua under center and Hill out, Waddle has lost his mind for 8/142/1 and 6/110/1 receiving.
Quinten Johnston, Ladd McConkey, and Keenan Allen – As always, the Chargers WR group are all on the board as good WR2/3 options. McConkey bounced back for a solid 5/39/1 receiving last week in an ideal matchup while Johnston (4/40 receiving) had his first “down” game. Right now, Allen’s role is the most consistent of the bunch. He’s earned at least 24% of the targets in 4-of-5 games. This matchup favors Allen, too. Miami predominantly deploys two-high safety coverages (60%), and Allen (0.28 TPRR) leads the Chargers in landslide by targets per route run vs. 2-hi looks followed by McConkey (0.19) and Johnston (0.17).
Darren Waller – His route share spiked up from 37% to 65% from Week 4 to 5, and Waller was second on the Dolphins in first-read targets behind Waddle last week. The injury to Tyreek Hill clears the pathway for Waller as a TE1 (top-12) for the rest of the season. The Chargers have been a very tough secondary all season – especially against TEs – but Waller is running 70% of his routes lined up in the slot or out wide.
Sit ‘Em
Kimani Vidal and Hasaan Haskins – The injury to Omarion Hampton (ankle) is a gut punch. The Chargers will now turn to some sort of committee with Vidal and Haskins. If someone gets the “hot hand”, the Chargers will ride that. I really don’t know what to expect here, but I slightly prefer Vidal to Haskins. He had the better role (by expected fantasy points) after Hampton got hurt last week. This is unlike the Cardinals backfield last week, when we had a pretty good signal pointing towards Michael Carter as the starter.
Tua Tagovailoa
Malik Washington and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Oronde Gadsden – Stash in TE premium leagues. Gadsden’s route share continues to increase every week (28% > 43% > 53%).
Stash ‘Em
Ollie Gordon
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
Must Start
Javonte Williams – Through five weeks, Williams ranks RB9 in snaps and RB5 by expected fantasy points. Dallas is dealing with a slew of offensive injuries, but they were still able to run the ball extremely effectively last week. Javonte has gone over 90 scrimmage yards in four straight games.
Jake Ferguson – Over the last three weeks without CeeDee Lamb (ankle), the Cowboys passing attack has been extremely consolidated. Ferguson and George Pickens have earned 29% of Prescott’s first read targets apiece, while no other Cowboy has more than 13%. Ferguson’s volume is just insane right now. He’s averaging 9.6 targets per game, which leads all TEs and ranks fourth-most among all players. Carolina is getting cleaned out for a league-high 80.2 yards per game by tight ends.
Start ‘Em
Rico Dowdle – Fresh off crushing Miami for 234 scrimmage yards and a TD, Dowdle now gets a chance at revenge vs. Dallas. Last week was an ideal matchup, but Dallas has been sneakily playing the run alright (3.9 YPC allowed). Chuba Hubbard (calf) still isn’t practicing. This is headed towards a committee when Hubbard is back healthy, but for now, you’re loading up Dowdle into your lineups.
George Pickens – After a slow Week 1, Pickens has turned his 33 targets into 20/327/5 receiving over the last month. The Panthers have been pretty stingy against opposing outside wide receivers (third-fewest FPG allowed), but not much is deterring you away from Pickens as a low-end WR1. If Carolina can move the ball on offense, this game has clear shootout potential (49.5 over/under).
Tetairoa McMillan – By volume, McMillan is a borderline WR1. He ranks WR13 in targets per game and WR15 by expected fantasy points, but is only WR32 by FPG. The touchdowns will eventually come here, and he might just get the first one of his career here. Dallas is allowing a league-high 29.1 Half-PPR FPG to opposing outside wide receivers.
Dak Prescott – While he struggled in Week 3 vs. Chicago, Dak has been terrific over the last two weeks, scoring as fantasy’s QB1 and QB4. Prescott has already thrown 10 TDs after he threw for 11 scores in eight games last year. The Panthers are dead last in pressure rate forced (29%), which will allow Dak to pick them apart in the secondary.
Sit ‘Em
Bryce Young – If there were ever a week to stream Young in fantasy football… it’d be this week. He keeps making egregiously bad turnovers and takes some bad sacks, but Dallas’ secondary is so giving. The Cowboys have given up 24 or more FP to every quarterback that they’ve faced.
Xavier Legette – Has turned his 18 targets into 39 yards of offense, which seems hard to do.
Ryan Flournoy and Jalen Tolbert – Tolbert led the Cowboys in routes last week, but failed to haul in his lone target. At least he got his cardio in. Flournoy randomly popped for a career-best 6/114 receiving, which really just highlights how well Prescott is playing right now. Flournoy had gone over 25 yards once in his 15 previous career games.
Tommy Tremble – Even though he was more involved in Week 5 (68% route share) than in Week 4 (58% RR/DB), Tremble only caught one pass for 7 yards last week. Ja’Tavion Sanders (ankle) returned to limited practice on Wednesday.
Stash ‘Em
Jalen Coker – Returned to full practice on Wednesday. Coker has some mid and late-season juice for fantasy simply because the Panthers are desperate for a secondary receiver behind McMillan.
New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints
Start ‘Em
Drake Maye – Through five weeks, Maye is fantasy’s QB10 with 19.5 FPG. Again, I question his upside (for fantasy) because he’s not running as near as much as we’d like. In fact, Maye is averaging fewer rushing yards per game (22) than in his rookie season (32 YPG). Maye has taken a huge step forward as a passer, though. He’s currently QB9 by adjusted net yards per attempt (penalizes sacks and INTs), QB2 in completion rate over expectation, and QB6 in highly accurate throw rate. This is a strong matchup. New Orleans is allowing the seventh-most passing fantasy points per dropback and is in the bottom-10 in pressures forced.
Stefon Diggs – Soon to be 32 (next month) and coming off an ACL tear, I didn’t think Diggs had this left in him. I was dead wrong. Diggs is on fire right now after roasting the Panthers and Bills for 16/247 receiving on 19 targets. He leads all players in first-read targets (44%) over the last two weeks.
Chris Olave – The volume is just amazing for Olave. He’s second only to Puka Nacua in targets and expected fantasy points per game, but only WR29 in PPR leagues. Why is that? Well, the Saints are using Olave on way more quick hitters this season, which is a huge boost to his floor in fantasy, but not his ceiling. His 8.1-yard average depth of target is significantly lower than 2024 (aDOT: 11.1 yards) and 2023 (aDOT: 13.4 yards). Olave doesn’t have a ton of TD upside, either. Spencer Rattler has taken a second year leap, but New Orleans is still sixth-worst in scoring drives (34%).
Hunter Henry – With Stefon Diggs taking off, Henry has been left as the secondary target here with six total looks over his last two games. He’s a lower-end TE1 in what is a pretty good matchup. The Saints are giving up the ninth-most yards per game (56.6) to opposing TEs.
FLEX Plays
Rashid Shaheed – This is a pretty similar matchup to last week for Shaheed. He leads the Saints in targets per route run (0.31) and yards per route run (2.51) vs. man-to-man coverage. The Patriots deploy the ninth-most man coverage (32%).
Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson – With Antonio Gibson (ACL) out for the season, the Patriots three-way committee has been reduced down to just Stevenson and Henderson. Both are on the board as lower-end FLEX plays here. The Saints pass defense is suspect, but they’ve played stingy run defense (3.7 YPC allowed | ninth-fewest).
Sit ‘Em
Alvin Kamara – His snap rate has declined in four straight games (85% > 74% > 72% > 53%), which has directly coincided with Kendre Miller’s snaps ticking up (16% > 27% > 32% > 42%). Taysom Hill taking away short-yardage carries only muddies up this backfield even more. New England is playing stifling run defense, giving up just 3.2 YPC (fourth-fewest).
Juwan Johnson – The good news? Johnson still played a full-time role with a 81% route share in Week 5 with Taysom Hill and Foster Moreau back. The bad news is that Johnson’s target share has trended down in four straight games (27% > 20% > 11% > 9%) with Olave and Shaheed as the focal points of this passing attack. Johnson is looking more and more like a TE2 for the rest of the season.
Spencer Rattler – Has quietly been solid for 2QB/SuperFlex leagues with QB23, QB10, QB21, QB20, and QB22 scoring weeks. It’s all volume-based, though. Rattler ranks QB5 in pass attempts per game (34.4).
Taysom Hill
Kayshon Boutte
Stash ‘Em
Kendre Miller
Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders (4:05p ET)
Must Start
Ashton Jeanty – Even though his quarterback is melting down and the Raiders offensive line is below average, the Raiders are still installed as -4.5 favorites over the Titans. This will be one of the few games that the Raiders will be favored in for the rest of the season. Jeanty is a Must Start RB1 up against a Titans run defense that allows the third-most rushing yards per game (135.6).
FLEX Plays
Tony Pollard – Tyjae Spears was barely involved in Week 5 in his first game back off of I.R., and he’s still limited in practice by his ankle injury from August. For now, Pollard stays on the board as a volume-based RB2/FLEX.
Fantasy Points Data: Bell Cow Report
Jakobi Meyers – It’s rough for Geno Smith, who has pulled down this entire passing offense. We could be looking at a midseason benching soon. Meyers only has 8 receptions for 62 yards over the last two weeks, but this is a good spot for a bounceback. The Titans pretty much only play zone coverage (80%) and Meyers leads the Raiders with 0.24 targets per route run and a healthy 2.02 YPRR vs. zone (compared to 0.19 TPRR and 1.21 YPRR vs. man).
Tre Tucker – Was the only functional member of the Raiders receiver group last week, turning his six targets into 4/62. He’s back on the FLEX radar again this week, with Las Vegas forced to run a consolidated passing attack without Brock Bowers. Last week, Meyers (22%) and Tucker (19%) were the primary first-read targets.
Calvin Ridley – After being left for dead by everyone, Ridley came back to life and had his best game of the season (5/131 receiving on 10 targets). I’m by no means confident that his passing offense will support a consistent weekly starter, but at the very least, Ridley is back on the board as a WR3/FLEX option. The Titans came out and funnelled him 32% of the first read targets in Week 5. Las Vegas is allowing the second-most yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers (140.4).
Sit ‘Em
Brock Bowers – Likely out again with a knee injury. I wonder if the Raiders will hold him out until after their Week 8 bye to try and get him back healthy for the rest of the season.
Michael Mayer – With Brock Bowers out, Mayer will be thrust into a full-time role. He missed Week 5 (concussion) but returned to full practice this week. Mayer is only in play as a desperation streamer.
Elic Ayomanor
Tyjae Spears
Geno Smith – The only QBs that have a higher turnover-worthy throw rate than Geno (6.1%) are Jaxson Dart (6.7%) and Jake Browning (6.5%).
Cameron Ward
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4:25p ET)
Must Start
Christian McCaffrey – On pace for 132 receptions. Not only would this break his own record for most RB receptions (116 in 2019), it'd be seventh-most by any player since the merger.
Emeka Egbuka – His 102.4 PPR points trail only Randy Moss (104.7) and Puka Nacua (115.6) for the most by a WR in Weeks 1-5 in NFL history. Even with Chris Godwin back in the lineup over the last two weeks, Egbuka is still the Buccaneers primary first read (28%) over Godwin (20%).
Start ‘Em
Baker Mayfield – Has opened this season with QB11, QB16, QB9, QB10, and QB7 scoring weeks. After ripping the Seahawks strong defense for 379 yards and 2 TDs last week, Mayfield is a borderline Must Start QB1 in this spot against the Bosa-less 49ers. San Francisco is generating the third-lowest pressure rate (31%).
Rachaad White – As expected, White had a strong Week 5 role with Bucky Irving (shoulder) out. White easily led this backfield in snaps (81%) and now has a way easier matchup this week compared to last (at Seattle) as a home favorite against a mediocre 49ers run defense. You’re firing him up as a low-end RB1.
Fantasy Points Data: Bell Cow Report
FLEX Plays
Chris Godwin – Over the last two weeks, Godwin has turned his 14 targets into just 6/52 receiving. I have to think that better days are ahead with Mayfield playing at such a high level, but for now, Godwin is a WR3/FLEX play.
Kendrick Bourne – Put the team on his back with 10/142 receiving on 11 targets last week. Ricky Pearsall (knee) and Jauan Jennings (pain everywhere) still aren’t practicing. This leaves the 49ers with CMC, Bourne, and Jake Tonges as their primary receivers on Sunday. If Pearsall and Jennings can’t play again, then Bourne will be back on the board as a WR3/FLEX. He and Tonges co-led the 49ers in first-read targets in Week 5 with a 25% share apiece.
Stream ‘Em
Mac Jones – Across his three spot starts this season, Jones has finished as the QB6, QB15, and QB10 in weekly output. He has thrown for at least 279 yards in every outing. Jones now catches a Buccaneers secondary that’s allowing the seventh-most passing fantasy points per game (17.0). When you face Tampa Bay, you had better be good against the blitz. The Buccaneers blitz at the fifth-highest rate (37%). Jones has been stellar when blitzed this season, ranking fifth-best by fantasy points per dropback (0.78).
Jake Tonges – We liked Tonges as a desperation streamer last week, and he’s pretty clearly the top TE streamer on this slate. George Kittle (hamstring) is set to miss a fifth game. Tampa Bay allows the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to tight ends.
Sit ‘Em
Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings – Both players didn’t practice on Wednesday. Pearsall’s knee injury seems like a multi-week issue.
Sean Tucker
Cade Otton
Stash ‘Em
Brian Robinson
Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (4:25p ET)
Must Start
Jordan Love – Fresh off the bye and after waxing the Cowboys in Week 4 for 26 FP, Love is a Must Start in this ideal matchup against the Bengals. Only Dallas and Baltimore are allowing more passing fantasy points per game than Cincinnati (19.4). The Bengals are barely pressuring the QB (33% | second-lowest), which means that Love should be able to shred them from clean pockets all game long.
Josh Jacobs
Tucker Kraft – The Bengals have the slowest LB/S corps in the league and are giving up the fourth-most yards per game (69) to opposing TEs as a result.
Start ‘Em
Ja’Marr Chase – The move from Browning to Joe Flacco is a marginal upgrade in that Flacco can actually get the ball out within time and rhythm of the play. I just fear that prime Joe Burrow is the only QB that could get something out of this passing offense behind the Bengals terrible offensive line. Cincinnati has the seventh-highest pressure rate and third-fastest time to pressure over the last four weeks.
Sit ‘Em
Chase Brown – I’ve listed Brown as a sit for three weeks now. There is a little bit of hope that Flacco can give him a little bit better TD chances at the goal-line. I’m not super optimistic about that this week. Cincinnati is implied to score just 15.3 points, which is dead last on the Week 6 slate. Green Bay is allowing just 73 yards per game on the ground (sixth-fewest).
Tee Higgins – At least he got the garbage time TD to save his day last week. Higgins has gone over 35 yards once all season. He’s just barely hanging on to FLEX status by a thread.
Romeo Doubs, Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks – The Packers are likely going to get Watson back this week after he was designated to return. Watson likely cuts into Wicks’ routes the most with Doubs and Golden still operating as the top two wideouts. This is such a great matchup, but with so many mouths to feed, I’m treating all of these Green Bay receivers as WR4 options in Week 6.
Joe Flacco – SuperFlex only.
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (SNF)
Must Start
Amon-Ra St. Brown – Kansas City plays the third-most 2-high safety looks at 62%. St. Brown is currently WR3 in yards per route run vs. 2-hi looks (3.71).
Jahmyr Gibbs – Has finished as a top-24 scoring RB in PPR in 22 straight games.
Patrick Mahomes – Has finished as a top-8 fantasy QB in four out of his first 5 games. Mahomes had four such performances (top-8) in all of last year combined. Hilariously, Mahomes leads the Chiefs in rushing (190 yards) over Hunt (164) and Pacheco (163).
Start ‘Em
Xavier Worthy – Earned a season-high nine targets last week, but only turned those looks into 6/42 receiving. Worthy looked a little bit less than 100% to my eye and looked like he was favoring his ankle after a few plays on Monday night. He’s off the injury report now, and he’ll be leaned on heavily again. Detroit allows the fifth-most yards per game to opposing outside receivers (132). The Lions deploy the third-most one-high safety coverage (62%), which has been a positive signal for Worthy on a small sample. Worthy leads the Chiefs in targets (0.31) and yards per route run (3.19) vs. one-high coverages this season.
Sam LaPorta – Crushed the Bengals in a clear bounceback matchup last week for 5/92/1 receiving. The Chiefs haven’t allowed much TE production this season, but they also haven’t faced many good ones. They played the Chargers TEs in Week 1, they got the Dallas Goedert-less Eagles in Week 2, the Giants in Week 3, Ravens in Week 4, and then Brenton Strange got hurt midgame last week.
Travis Kelce
FLEX Plays
David Montgomery – Kansas City is mostly giving up light boxes and daring teams to run because they play so much two-high shell coverage. If they take a similar gameplan here, then the Lions will be content to just load up Gibbs and Montgomery with 35 combined carries and try to keep Mahomes off of the field with a run-heavy approach. Detroit’s pass rate has been below expectation in five straight games, and they’re the seventh-most run-heavy team in the league.
Sit ‘Em
Jared Goff – Over the last four seasons, Goff averages 20.9 fantasy points per game (QB7) in 37 starts as a favorite. However, his output dips dramatically when the Lions are underdogs to just 14.2 FPG across 33 starts as an underdog. The Chiefs are allowing the fourth-fewest passing fantasy points per dropback (0.31).
Jameson Williams – His involvement in this offense is so minimal. Williams is last on the Lions in targets per route run (0.09) vs. two-high coverages, which is a major concern this week. Kansas City plays the third-most 2-high safety looks at 62%.
Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco
Marquise Brown
Tyquan Thornton
Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (MNF Game 1 | 7:15p ET)
Must Start
Josh Allen
Bijan Robinson – The Falcons hopes of pulling off an upset rest on this man’s shoulders. Buffalo is playing great pass defense, but they’re leaky vs. the run. The Bills have allowed 5.4 YPC on zone-blocking carries (third-most), which is what the Falcons predominantly call for Robinson (73% of his runs are off zone-blocking concepts).
James Cook – We noted that it was a tough matchup for Cook last week, and the Patriots did an excellent job bottling him up. Cook was held to 49 total yards in Week 5 after ripping off at least 100 scrimmage yards in every game from Weeks 1-4.
Start ‘Em
Drake London – Had his first ceiling performance of the season with 8/110/1 receiving in Week 4, but that did come with Darnell Mooney (hamstring) missing half of the game injured. London is a safe, volume-based WR2. He ranks WR3 in targets per game (9.6), but much like Chris Olave, we haven’t seen London consistently capitalize on his volume because this passing offense is just mid. Just 73% of London’s targets have been catchable (WR46-of-71).
Dalton Kincaid – Atlanta deploys the most single-high safety coverages (69%), which is a positive signal for Kincaid. He leads the Bills in targets (0.26) and yards per route run (3.28) vs. single-high looks. We’re living on the edge with Kincaid because it’s the same old story here. He’s still a part-time player and only ranks TE28 in route share, but when he’s on the field, he gets the ball. Kincaid is TE3 by targets per route run (0.24).
FLEX Plays
Khalil Shakir
Sit ‘Em
Keon Coleman – Since his huge Week 1 (8/112/1 receiving), Coleman has flopped hard. He has just 13/114/1 receiving across his last four games.
Darnell Mooney
Michael Penix
Kyle Pitts – In two full games with London and Mooney, Pitts has just 4/37 receiving (vs. Vikings) and 4/39 (vs. Panthers).
Stash ‘Em
Tyler Allgeier
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (MNF Game 2 | 8:15p ET)
Must Start
Jayden Daniels – Was not limited by his knee injury last week. Daniels tallied 8/39 as a runner and posted a season-best 8.9 yards per pass attempt vs. Chargers.
Rome Odunze – Ranks WR8 by targets per game, WR4 in expected fantasy points, and he’s WR4 in actual FPG in his first four starts. Everything is trending up for Odunze. He’s seen more than double the amount of first-read targets (32%) as D.J. Moore (15%) this season.
Deebo Samuel – Deebo has balled out as the Commanders primary receiver with Terry McLaurin (quad) sidelined. Over the last two weeks, Samuel has turned his 17 targets into a stellar 14/168/2 receiving. Chicago is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers, which is where Deebo has run the majority of his routes this season.
Start ‘Em
Caleb Williams – Through four games, Williams has improved drastically by the numbers. His TD% has nearly doubled year-over-year (from 3.6% to 6.2%), his YPA is up by nearly a full yard (from 6.3 to 7.1), and his sack rate has been halved (from 10.8% to 5.1%). This looks like a pretty good spot to keep rolling with Williams a mid-range QB1. This game has clear shootout upside, and the Commanders are bottom-12 in passing FP allowed per dropback and YPA allowed.
D’Andre Swift – The most boring RB2/FLEX in fantasy football, Swift has at least 15 touches and has gone over 60 scrimmage yards in four straight games. This matchup isn’t great. Washington is giving up the sixth-fewest YPC (3.5).
Jacory Croskey-Merritt – The Commanders finally ditched their committee backfield last week and just made the rookie their workhorse. Croskey-Merritt played on a season-high 51% of the snaps and took 14-of-20 RB handoffs. Chicago is the worst run defense in the league by yards per game (153) and YPC allowed (5.9).
Zach Ertz – Has game logs of 3/26/1, 6/64/1, and last week’s 0/0 goose egg in three games with Jayden Daniels this season. I’m willing to give him one more week as a low-end TE1 in this spot. Chicago deploys the second-most two-high safety coverage (63%), and Ertz has huge splits based on if the middle of the field is left open. Against two-high coverages, Ertz averages 0.26 targets and 2.26 yards on a per route basis. Against one-high safety looks? Ertz falls to a pathetic 0.10 TPRR and 0.58 YPPR.
FLEX Plays
D.J. Moore – Has been sharply out-targeted (34 to 21) and out-played by Rome Odunze this season. Odunze is averaging a strong 2.26 yards and 0.12 first downs per route run while Moore’s efficiency is below average (1.36 YPRR | 0.06 1D/RR). At best, Moore is a low-end FLEX.
Sit ‘Em
Terry McLaurin – Has missed the last two games due to injury (quad).
Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols
Stash ‘Em
Colston Loveland – I could see the Bears coming out of the bye and trying to get their rookie TE more involved. With D.J. Moore falling by the wayside in this offense, there is room for Chicago to sustain a second target. The problem is that Loveland has yet to run more routes than Kmet in a game.
Luther Burden – Worth stashing in deeper leagues. The Bears can’t play Olamide Zaccheaus ahead of him all season… right?
