2025 Week 4 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

The Data Suite (with the keen eye of lead charter Steve O’Rourke) allows me to analyze WR/CB fantasy matchups better than I was ever able to in the past.

NOTE: It should go without saying, but we’re dealing with a very small sample right now. This column should be just one element of your lineup research.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

Then, later in the week, Ryan Heath examines schematic matchups for NFL Premium and All-In subscribers with his Advanced Matchups column. We believe we attack coverage matchups from every angle for our subscribers.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

Shadow Situations

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II vs. Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase

Neither of these two studs — the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and the reigning receiving triple crown winner — is coming off his best game. Surtain allowed 3 receptions for 61 yards to Quentin Johnston in Week 3, and while that doesn’t sound like a ton to a mortal, it’s the first time since 2023 that Surtain allowed 30 or more yards to a single receiver in his primary coverage.

Meanwhile, Chase caught just 5 passes for 50 yards on 6 targets against Minnesota, in a game in which the Bengals were losing from pretty much the opening kickoff. Chase also lost a fumble after one of the receptions, and was spotted making “business decisions” late instead of blocking (not that I necessarily blame him).

Instead of diving too deep into it here, I’ll just come out and say what I feel: advantage Surtain. That’s not necessarily a dig at Chase, but more so a dig at the Bengals’ dysfunctional offense. I’ll admit that I was a little too excited about Jake Browning filling in for Joe Burrow. Browning is obviously not Burrow, but he’s played with spunk in spot starts and has gotten the ball to Chase and Tee Higgins (as he did in Week 2). But Vikings DC Brian Flores exploited a Bengal team that cannot block and cannot run, and put them behind the chains. I think a pissed-off Broncos team coming off two late losses will think it can do the same.

Last year, in Week 17, Surtain aligned over Chase on 76% of his routes. Chase was targeted 6 times, but caught just 3 passes for 27 yards in his primary coverage. However, Chase finished with 9/102 total on 15 targets in the game, which shows his dominance over “normal” defenders. But he also had Joe Burrow in that game.

Chase should get his targets in this game, but it wouldn’t be shocking if he underwhelms yet again. Season-long managers almost certainly have no choice but to play him. DFS players will have to be a lot braver, and I anticipate he will not be popular.

SHADOW ALERT! Jets CB Sauce Gardner vs. Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill

Sauce’s second run as a shadow CB of the season didn’t go as well as his first. In Week 3, he aligned over Mike Evans on 65% of Evans’ routes, allowing 3/27/1 on 5 targets in his primary coverage (he also allowed a 30-yard reception to Emeka Egbuka during the game). But as noted in this column, Gardner shut down DK Metcalf in Week 1, allowing just a single reception for 11 yards on 4 targets (and he even deflected that ball).

We’re projecting that HC Aaron Glenn will continue to shadow Gardner this week in a matchup with Hill, which is interesting considering these two did not face in either matchup last season — Gardner was inactive for both games against the Dolphins. And if indeed he does shadow, it will be the first time that’s happened against Hill in his career, because Gardner typically played all LCB before this season.

Really, most of my consternation with Hill has to do with how crappy Tua Tagovailoa looks as opposed to any individual matchup, though this may open up a couple more opportunities for Jaylen Waddle to make some plays. A projected total of 44.5 is actually higher than we’ve come to expect from Jets games in recent years.

This game is not on the DFS main slate, and I’m not sure how much interest in Hill I’d have if it were. I’m personally bumping Waddle up a bit.

SHADOW ALERT! Eagles CB Quinyon Mitchell vs. Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka

It’s always exciting as the author of this here column when a potential new shadow CB emerges in the league. Eagles DC Vic Fangio unleashed the second-year man Mitchell in that role last week against the Rams, truly throwing him into a fire — he tasked Mitchell with shadowing the ever-savvy (and still legit) Davante Adams. It’s something Adams anticipated, as he (respectfully) told reporters before the clash that he was hoping to show Mitchell a thing or two about playing corner in the NFL.

Mitchell held his own in every way imaginable. He aligned over Adams on 79.4% of his routes in Week 3. In his primary coverage, Mitchell allowed just 2 catches for 12 yards, with Adams’ lone touchdown coming in a zone concept on which he got a step (and maybe a bit of a pushoff) on S Reed Blankenship. It’s too early to tell if Mitchell will be a half-field neutralizer the way a Patrick Surtain is, but first impressions are strong.

This week, there’s no guarantee Fangio will choose to deploy Mitchell as a shadow with Mike Evans out, but I actually think there’s an advantage to doing so. The rookie Egbuka has been a revelation through three weeks, with 3 TD receptions in his first two games, and then a career-high 6 catches and 85 yards in Week 3 despite a season-low 66.7% route share as he deals with a balky hip.

As good as he has been, separation has not been the name of Egbuka’s rookie campaign so far, as he’s 83rd among 117 WRs in Average Separation Score. (Adams, by contrast, is 2nd.) Fangio may decide taking out the Bucs’ best receiver is a prudent move given his other perimeter corner spot is a big concern, with Adoree’ Jackson 1) struggling and 2) banged up, with Jakorian Bennett now on IR. Chris Godwin could make his season debut from last season’s dislocated ankle, but he’d probably stick to a limited slot role until he gets his legs under him, and that would often place him in Cooper DeJean’s coverage, something the Eagles will feel good about.

This will be an interesting matchup from a fantasy standpoint — the Eagles put Bennett on IR this week, and their pass rush crew took a blow with the same happening to EDGE Nolan Smith (triceps). I’d like to recommend Egbuka as a slam-dunk WR1, but I think he’ll see a good bit of Mitchell. But that could open up more work for someone else. Could Sterling Shepard or Godwin get the better of Jackson or Kelee Ringo?

It would be ballsy to play Godwin sight unseen, especially at a $6K pricetag on DraftKings. But Shepard could be an intriguing low-end play at $4K. Or perhaps you bet on Egbuka not catching a shadow, at which point his $6.8K price doesn’t look restrictive at all.

Egbuka remains a volume-based WR2 in season-long formats. For DFS, I lean towards the cheapest — Shepard.

SHADOW ALERT! Titans CB L’Jarius Sneed vs Texans WR Nico Collins

Sneed has worked through some early-season injuries, but played every defensive snap in the Titans’ loss to the Colts in Week 3. Sneed didn’t shadow one particular Colt receiver, and he also wasn’t targeted in coverage, pitching a shutout (the rest of the Titans’ defense — especially the run defense — can’t say the same).

However, the Colts don’t really have one “go-to” receiver the way the Texans do, and I expect the Titans will choose to shadow Collins with Sneed, especially since they just traded starting CB Jarvis Brownlee to the Jets. That’s not necessarily bad news for Collins — Sneed has shadowed once in three games this year, aligning over Rams WR Davante Adams on 79% of his routes in Week 2. Adams absolutely took him to school, roasting him for 5/100/1 on 9 targets.

This Texans offense has been despicable, with just three touchdowns in three games, one of which the Bucs allowed them to score for a chance to get the ball back (they did… and won). CJ Stroud is under constant pressure and possesses an aDOT of just 7.4, down from 8.4 last year and 9.3 in his stellar rookie season. As for Collins, he’s coming off his best game of the season, with 8/104/1 on 11 targets, but his 50-yard touchdown came on a completely busted coverage by the Jaguars.

All in all, I have deep concerns about the Texans, but I also really like this matchup for Collins, who had 2 TD in two games against the Titans last year. Sneed didn’t play in those games, but I don’t view him as much of an impediment… even if Sneed is willingly putting material on the bulletin board.

Collins is a WR1 this week. Will DFS folks be brave enough to use him?

All Systems Go

Packers WRs vs. Cowboys CBs

I had the completely wrong read on the Packers/Browns game last week. I called for a touchdown from either Matthew Golden or Dontayvion Wicks (and maybe both). Well, neither scored as the Browns defense swallowed up Jordan Love all day. Fortunately, a recommended prop on Golden O32.5 receiving yards hit, though his longest reception of the day had a chance to be a whole lot more.

I don’t think I’ll have the wrong read on this week’s game (and neither will the entire world). The Cowboys have an absolutely despicable defense, one that plays almost no man coverage whatsoever because DC Matt Eberflus can’t trust his corners on an island with a toothless pass rush in front of them.

Per our charting metric, perimeter CB Kaiir Elam has surrendered a league-high 309 receiving yards as the closest defender to the ball — only five other CBs are even over 200 yards allowed, and none are over 250. The Cowboys’ other perimeter CB, Trevon Diggs, is tied for the league lead with 3 TD surrendered, and now he’s dealing with a knee injury. If there’s any saving grace for Dallas, it’s that slot CB DaRon Bland might be able to return from foot injury, which would give Wicks (73.7% slot rate last week) the “toughest” matchup here.

This game is not on the DFS main slate, and I’m not sure how our DFS experts feel about that — they might be thankful that they can just ignore it. As for season-long, it’s completely justified to think this is the week for Golden to break out (for real this time), or to trust Romeo Doubs as a dart-throw WR3. I have a few bucks on Golden at plus odds to score a touchdown this week, as I posted in our Subscriber Discord.

Bears WR Rome Odunze vs. Raiders Perimeter CBs

Odunze has been an absolute revelation this year, and is clearly taking over as Caleb Williams’ alpha. Among all WRs, Odunze currently ranks 11th in target share (27.1%), 11th in YPG (75.7), 4th in XFP/G (19.4), and 4th in FPG (20.9). And now he gets a matchup with a Raiders secondary that is surrendering an 11th-most 4.73 schedule-adjusted FPG over expectation to opposing perimeter WRs.

The main culprit in that regard for Vegas has been third-year man Kyu Blu Kelly, who has allowed a 6th-most 158 receiving yards in his primary coverage. Kelly plays exclusively RCB in the Raiders’ defense, and I anticipate the Bears will move Odunze around to get him the most favorable matchup.

And if Kelly struggles, the Raiders’ primary backup on the outside is rookie third-round pick Darien Porter, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Odunze to make plays.

Browns WRs vs. Lions CB Terrion Arnold

I can’t imagine the Browns WRs will be overly popular for DFS, but Cleveland is a heavy road underdog against a fat and happy Lions team coming off a massive road win in Baltimore. The Lions’ success as a whole has kind of muted the early-season struggles for second-year CB Terrion Arnold, whom we have charted as having allowed 240 receiving yards in his primary coverage, 2nd-most in the NFL. It’s led to some questions about his role going forward.

If Arnold plays his normal allotment of snaps in his usual role, he’ll align most of the time at RCB, where Cedric Tillman runs the plurality of his routes. But it’s also possible the Browns would want to get Jerry Jeudy, who has been really quiet so far, some reps against the Lions’ weak spot opposite DJ Reed.

Whether it’s Arnold or Amik Robertson moving more outside, I would expect the Browns to try to force-feed the ball Jeudy’s way. The Browns’ defense is humming, and I think #NarrativeStreet supports dabbling in Jeudy at $4900 on DraftKings.

Bills WR Khalil Shakir vs. Saints slot CB Alontae Taylor

Through three weeks of the 2025 season, Shakir — who was often picked 100-plus selections into fantasy drafts this summer — has delivered two usable weeks for fantasy managers, with 12.4 PPR FP in Week 1 and 14.5 in Week 3 (including his first touchdown of the season). And this week, he draws a Saints defense with CB Alontae Taylor that is allowing a league-high +7.17 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot receivers.

The Bills are 16.5-point favorites, so they likely won’t need to throw the ball a ton in the second half, but could Shakir have a hand in building that lead? I think so. Taylor has allowed .40 PPR FP/coverage snap in his primary coverage so far this year, 6th-most among CBs who have played 50% or more of their coverage snaps in the slot.

Pump the Brakes

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan vs. Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez

This is a “watch the injury reports” situation. Gonzalez has missed the first three games of the 2025 NFL season with a hamstring injury (much to the chagrin of Patriots fans who expected him to be ready for the opener), while McMillan is currently dealing with a calf issue.

Gonzalez is expected to make his debut, and it will be interesting to see if new coach Mike Vrabel treats him the same way Jerod Mayo did — as a shadow CB. Gonzalez shadowed seven different #1 WRs on 70% or more of their routes last year, making him one of the premier traveling CBs and a constant feature of this column.

But with injury issues on both sides here, I’m not confident in projecting a shadow until we see it. I am downgrading McMillan on my personal depth chart to more of a WR2, and I have no interest in DFS, however.

Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Chargers slot CB Tarheeb Still

With the exception of his explosion against the Cowboys two weeks ago (where it’s now evident everyone can have an explosion), Wan’Dale has been pretty much himself for this season. That is to say he gets targeted frequently, but doesn’t go particularly far with his targets — outside of the Dallas game, he has 7 catches for 81 yards on 12 targets.

That will make him exactly the kind of receiver Still likes to defend — Still has given up 10 receptions on 13 targets this year, but for just 74 yards. Still keeps defenders in front of him because he rarely will allow them to break tackles.

In Jaxson Dart’s first start, against this defense (and in particular this matchup), Robinson is about as low-upside a play as there is. He’ll need to catch a bunch of passes to make up for the YAC he’s unlikely to accrue.