2025 Week 3 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

The Data Suite (with the keen eye of lead charter Steve O’Rourke) allows me to analyze WR/CB fantasy matchups better than I was ever able to in the past.

NOTE: It should go without saying, but we’re dealing with a very small sample right now. This column should be just one element of your lineup research.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

Shadow Situations

SHADOW ALERT! Jets CB Sauce Gardner vs. Buccaneers WR Mike Evans

Welcome to the world of Sauce Gardner: Shadow CB. After Gardner followed Steelers WR DK Metcalf all around the formation in Week 1, he selectively shadowed Keon Coleman and Josh Palmer against the Bills in Week 2. Gardner allowed 2 catches for 39 yards in his primary coverage — the big play was actually a 32-yarder to Palmer from Mitchell Trubisky, who entered the game while Josh Allen was getting treated for a broken nose. On the year, Sauce has allowed just 3 catches on 7 targets in his primary coverage, so he hasn’t been overly responsible for the Jets’ leaky defense.

Given new coach Aaron Glenn’s trust in Sauce, we’re projecting him to shadow the veteran Evans this week. Evans is no stranger to catching a shadow. He actually drew Derek Stingley’s coverage on 75% of his routes against the Texans last week (which I regret I did not mention in last week’s column). And it wasn’t pretty, as he caught just 3 of 9 targets for 36 yards on Stingley. Some inaccurate throws from an under-pressure Baker Mayfield had to do with that, but the pressure and coverage the Texans can produce at the same time are unmatched in the NFL (except perhaps for Denver).

I think there’s enough evidence here to warrant a downgrade of Evans. Almost certainly, no one in a season-long format has the luxury of sitting him, but I’ll also be upgrading Emeka Egbuka from a DFS perspective.

SHADOW ALERT! Texans CB Derek Stingley vs. Jaguars WR Brian Thomas

Speaking of the Texans and Stingley, we’re projecting he’s going to follow Thomas around this week, and for BTJ owners looking for their early pick to get off the schneid… well, this isn’t a great spot.

Thomas has just 5 catches for 60 yards on 18 targets this year. Hr’s one of only two players with 15 or more targets to have fewer than 10 catches… and the other (Jerry Jeudy) has 9 catches. What’s most alarming is that he’s showing very little chemistry with QB Trevor Lawrence, and he’s also been accused of making some business decisions.

At the least, there might be an explanation for the timidness. Jaguars coach Liam Coen told reporters this week that Thomas is dealing with a balky wrist, which could also explain some of the drop issues he’s had this year.

I believe that Thomas will bounce back, and he could bounce back soon. But he’s struggled against Stingley in the past. In two games last year, Stingley aligned over Thomas on 32 total routes (shadowing him in Week 13 after not traveling in Week 4). On those 32 routes, Stingley was the closest defender to the ball on 8 targets sent Thomas’ way. The receiver caught just 2 passes for 66 yards on those two targets.

I’m still starting Thomas in my season-long leagues, but here’s a reminder to not freak out if the numbers aren’t there this week if he looks tangibly better on film. It’s a tough matchup.

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II vs. Chargers WR Quentin Johnson

Has any player in fantasy had a bigger breakout first two weeks than Johnston? Once clowned for his comically bad hands and tendency to make big plays only when the opposing defense completely busted coverage, Johnson is currently the WR7 with 20.4 FPG, thanks to 3 TD on 8 receptions.

He has the fewest receptions of any WR in the top 12 in FPG, but there are reasons to believe his role has truly expanded. His 26.7% first-read target share is tied with Ladd McConkey, as are his 14 targets — two behind Keenan Allen for the league lead. With the Chargers ranking at the top of the NFL in pass rate over expectation, there’s a chance Justin Herbert can support three fantasy-relevant WRs this year.

But this will be QJ’s biggest test yet. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year almost never travels into the slot, which is when QJ rarely goes — he runs 82% of his routes from the perimeter, compared to just 51% for Allen and 36% for McConkey. That’s not to say Allen and McConkey will never see Surtain, but they should naturally avoid him in most instances by the sake of their roles.

Surtain’s allowed 7 catches on 10 targets in his primary coverage through the first two games of the season, but for just 63 yards. I think QJ is more of a WR3 this week, and I wouldn’t blame you if you sat him.

All Systems Go

Bears WR Rome Odunze vs. Cowboys CBs

Caleb Williams is picked on more than any NFL QB, and there are plenty of reasons to criticize his play, but there were some really positive moments on tape in Week 2. He’s just two games into a new system, and any tangible improvement is good news.

The most encouraging aspect of his season so far has been his rapport with Odunze, who has been the clear #1 in the Bears’ offense through two games.

Here’s Scott Barrett from this week’s Everything Report:

“[Odunze] currently ranks 5th among all players in XFP market share (29.9%), while no other Bears player is over 20%. He’s led the team in targets in back-to-back weeks, and now has 8 more than any other player. Among all WRs, Odunze ranks 11th in first-read target share (33.3%), 3rd in XFP/G (22.2), 4th in FPG (23.8), and 9th in ASS (0.208).”

The Bears move their receivers all around — Odunze has actually run 35.1% of his routes from the slot — but when he lines up outside, the plurality of his routes come at RWR. That would put him most of the time aligned across from Cowboys CB Kaiir Elam, whom we’ve charted as having surrendered a league-high 232 receiving yards in his primary coverage. But the Cowboys’ top CB — Trevon Diggs — is 15th by the same metric with 104 yards allowed, and he’s also surrendered 2 TD.

Like I said, the Bears move their WRs around. DJ Moore plays in the slot more than Odunze, but only slightly so, and he could be catching a banged-up DaRon Bland (who missed last week with a foot injury) there. A big game for Moore could also be in the cards, but Odunze is too good to sit in season-long formats, and I expect he’ll be popular on the DFS slate.

Cowboys WRs vs. Bears CBs

Yeah, the other side of the same game is looking just as juicy, so this is a “fade at your own risk” type of DFS game.

The most noteworthy thing about the matchup for George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb is that the Bears’ top perimeter CB (and occasional shadow) Jaylon Johnson is out for the year with a groin injury. For a team that just got debacled by the Lions’ offense, that is a significant loss heading into a brutal matchup. As bad as the numbers are for the Cowboys’ DBs, Bear CB Tyrique Stevenson has been pretty much just as bad — he’s allowed 0.51 PPR FP per coverage snap this season, 8th-most among CBs with 20 or more coverage snaps (Elam is 5th, by comparison).

Keep an eye on the status of Bears slot CB Kyler Gordon, who is one of the best at his position but has missed the first two games of the season. If he can’t go, it’s a massive boost for Lamb against the overmatched Nick McCloud (Pickens runs just 9% of his routes inside, compared to 32% for Lamb). But either way, I wouldn’t be shocked if this is the week Pickens has his first truly big game as a Cowboy.

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan vs. Falcons CBs

This is more of a “watch the injury report” situation, but it’ll be a massive boon for McMillan if Falcons top CB AJ Terrell (hamstring) is out this week — and judging by Raheem Morris’ comments, it sure sounds like he will be.

The biggest concern I have is that QB Bryce Young struggles with interior pressure, and the Panthers just put their two best interior OL — Robert Hunt and Austin Corbett — on IR. But that will also negatively impact the Panthers’ run game. With how badly their defense has struggled this year, they’ll be playing catchup quite a bit, like last week when Young threw 55 passes.

The Panthers are 6-point underdogs this week, so expect plenty of TMac targets. He’s a strong WR2, in my mind.

Packers WRs Dontayvion Wicks and Matthew Golden vs. Browns slot CB Myles Harden

The Packers have lost primary slot WR Jayden Reed for the foreseeable future after surgeries to repair both a broken collarbone and a fractured foot. After Reed went down, Wicks (13) and Golden (7) led the Packers in slot routes in Week 2.

That’s notable, because the Browns have been struggggggggllllinnng at corner beyond vets Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome. Their primary slot defenders this year have been Harden — a second-year small-school 7th-rounder — and Cameron Mitchell, a 2023 5th-rounder out of Northwestern who got toasted for 3 Ravens touchdowns last week (Harden gave up the other). It just stinks that I wrote up Zay Flowers for the same reason last week… and it was Devontez Walker (2), Tylan Wallace, and DeAndre Hopkins (1 each) scoring the touchdowns.

The good news for the Browns is Mitchell will almost certainly see fewer snaps, provided Ward doesn’t struggle with cramping again.

The bad news is that Harden is still overmatched, and the matchup is uniquely difficult. Wicks is one of the best separators in the league vs. man coverage, and Golden literally has the best Average Separation Score of any WR in football through two games. I’m going to guarantee one of these two hits for a touchdown, and maybe both — Wicks is probably the safer bet, but a Golden breakout is coming (Jordan Love underthrew him for a guaranteed TD last week).

At $3700 on DraftKings, Wicks is easily my favorite cheap DFS WR of the week. These guys are much harder to start in season-long formats, but you can talk me into them as upside WR3s.

Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Chiefs slot CB Chamarri Conner

Consider me skeptical that Robinson is all of a sudden going to be a deep threat after his huge game against the Cowboys in Week 2 — his aDOT of 17.5 (!) in that game was only the third time in 40 career games that he eclipsed an aDOT of 10 yards, and it was the highest of his career by over six full yards (11.4, Week 15 of 2024 against the Ravens).

But what I can guarantee is that Wan’Dale will remain the Giants’ primary slot WR — he has run 76.1% of his routes from the slot in 2025. That will draw him the best matchup possible against Kansas City. Chiefs slot CB Chamarri Conner has allowed 0.49 FP/coverage snap, 9th-most among all defenders with 20 or more coverage snaps, and 2nd-most among players with the majority of coverage snaps coming in the slot.

The Chiefs allow 2.2 yards per route run to slot receivers, compared to just 1.3 YPRR outside. Of course, you’re not benching Malik Nabers, but Wan’Dale is a viable PPR WR3 this week.

Pump the Brakes

Falcons WR Drake London vs. Panthers CB Jaycee Horn

The Panthers don’t shadow with Horn, their $100 million man in the secondary, but perhaps they should given how teams have been avoiding him like the plague this year. Horn has been targeted as the closest defender to the ball on four occasions this year. He has allowed just 1 reception for 7 yards on those 4 targets… and it was to TE Trey McBride. He blanked both Brian Thomas Jr. and Marvin Harrison in his primary coverage this season so far. In general, the Panthers have been stingy defensively on the perimeter — only the Seahawks (34.3) have allowed fewer PPR fantasy points to WRs than Carolina this year (34.5).

But as mentioned, Horn doesn’t shadow a particular receiver, so this is more of a note than a true “AVOID” situation. These two matched up on just 9 routes in 2024, with London being targeted twice. He caught just 1 ball for 3 yards… but it was a touchdown. London is more of a high-floor WR2.

Rams WR Puka Nacua vs. Eagles slot CB Cooper DeJean

Of course you’re not sitting Nacua, and I’m not suggesting you should. But it is worth noting that he runs 68% of his routes from the slot, and that’s where DeJean plays the overwhelming majority of the time.

The Eagles’ second-year defender has continued to level up in 2025, into perhaps the best slot corner in football. Against opposing WRs in his primary coverage, DeJean has allowed 4 catches for 12 yards on 5 targets this year. So even when WRs do catch the ball on him, they go nowhere. In two games last year, DeJean aligned over Nacua on 15 total routes, allowing 2 catches for 29 yards on 3 targets as the closest defender to the ball.

The Rams move Nacua all over, especially with tricky presnap motion, so there’s no way this is going to be a “shadow” situation. It’s just more of a “two titans going at each other” kind of matchup that makes us remember why we like football so much.