The Cutup: Seattle's "Heavy Air" Offense

Now boarding.

While many in the NFL dream of flying the friendly skies in a Learjet, the Seattle Seahawks prefer an Airbus.

After a 38-14 beatdown of the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football, the Seahawks' passing attack became a topic of intrigue across the NFL. Let’s check our radar (the tape), use our map (Data Suite), and explore how Seattle is getting it done through the air, whether it’s sustainable, and the fantasy implications.

How They Get It Done

Deep Attack

While the rest of the NFL has gone away from the deep passing game due to the popularity of 2-high shells, the Seahawks are letting it fly.

Their passing game leads the league in ANY/A, and you can directly attribute that to their incredible deep-throwing efficiency, where they lead the NFL in passing yards per game from throws of 20+ yards. Sam Darnold is posting the best highly accurate throw rate on 20+ yard attempts in a season since it’s been charted at Fantasy Points (2021).

Bigger Personnel Groups (12/13/21)

It’s not just that the Seahawks are winning with deep balls — the way they’re doing it is unique. It starts with personnel groupings that incorporate multiple “bigger” players and limit the number of WRs on the field. Most teams tend to play Base defense rather than Nickel against these larger offensive sets, trading a linebacker for a defensive back. This theoretically makes sense to match size, but the Seahawks are using that theory to their advantage and throwing deep.

You can tell that head coach Mike Macdonald and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak are collaborating on this, given that the Seahawks defense plays Nickel 81% of the time (most in the NFL) against similar personnel.

Early Downs

Not only are they using these personnel groupings to throw, they are doing the large majority (92%) of these groupings on 1st and 2nd downs. 65% of the time they are under center, and 35% of the time they’re using the combination of going under center and a play-action fake.

More Protection and Fewer Route Runners

Another unique trait from these heavier sets is that the Seahawks love to keep the TEs and FBs in to block with only 3 or fewer route runners on a single play (Condensed Route Rate — I am personally going to make this a thing!).

Deception

All of these features combined lead to a strong run signal for the defense, and you can actually see the defenders often take steps forward upon the snap of the ball before realizing they need to get depth to play in their zone (see the embedded post in the previous section).

The problem is it’s usually too late, and a savvy route runner and stud such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba already flew past the defense for an easy pitch and catch.

As for JSN, he’s notably earned 52% of the deep targets thus far and 45% from the bigger looks. He is lapping the field with 391 receiving yards from deep receptions — 124 yards above the next closest. If only Ryan Heath could havepredicted his deep ball prowess before the season.

TLDR: Seattle is attacking deep from bigger personnel on early downs with JSN, leaving in extra blockers to shore up protection to sell the run, and taking advantage of defensive personnel matching habits.

Is it Sustainable?

Now that the cat is out of the bag, can they really keep this level of efficiency going? Is there a way to stop it? Are they just taking advantage of a few teams?

All great questions. Let’s explore.

Nickel Defense

Defenses continue to stay in Base defense at a very high clip against these bigger personnel groupings. Most teams haven’t caught up to offenses that are using personnel to create mismatches.

Seattle already played Houston, and the Texans’ defense held up well, allowing the lowest ANY/A to Sam Darnold all season. Washington, on the other hand, fared poorly and allowed Darnold to have his highest ANY/A of the season. Does this mean Nickel isn’t the answer? There’s a threshold, like anything — you can’t just play Nickel and stop there; you also need competent secondary play. The Commanders' defense is last in ANY/A and 29th in EPA / Pass play.

Moving forward, the Seahawks play only one team that goes Nickel (or Dime) more than 50% of the time against these big personnel groupings: the Colts. The Colts' ANY/A and EPA / Pass play marks are good, and they recently acquired Sauce Gardner, so there’s a possibility this matchup looks closer to the Houston game.

There’s also the likelihood that this very topic and the attention it’s gained (I’m writing about this!) could force some schematic changes specifically against the Seahawks.

2-High Defense

The debate over why offenses are seeing fewer explosive plays is already done, but I had to investigate just to be sure. Just by watching a few plays, it was clear to me that the best way to defend the Seahawks' Heavy Air is to go 2-High with the safeties and play Nickel like the above clip.

In theory, you’re forcing Seattle into a checkdown or run, and either of those is a win. I also checked the numbers from a defensive EPA/Pass play perspective, and 2-High Nickel is the clear winner. Teams have played this coverage against Seattle on only four pass plays, but I think the counters are coming.

Sam Darnold Efficiency

We’ve established that Sam Darnold is the best deep ball thrower in the NFL this year and probably of any recent season. At the trade deadline, the Seahawks also added Rashid Shaheed, who is top 20 in Win Rate on Go and Post routes this season (higher than JSN in both).

Still, this level of efficiency is almost certainly unsustainable. Darnold notably had a 34.3% Highly Accurate Throw Rate on Deep Balls in 2024, which is roughly 25% less than this season. I can see him hitting a 45% mark or so over the rest of the season, which means a few fewer explosive plays.

Remaining Schedule

Like most items, sustainability comes down to their remaining schedule. I went ahead and did a quick matchup rating above, with A+ being the hardest and F being the easiest matchup by opposing defense.

The Vikings, Colts, and Rams also have the top EPA/Pass against 12/13/21 personnel, so I lean towards those and the Falcons being tougher matchups for this pass offense. That means there are 5 games that might be tougher, which is plenty more than the 2 they had to start the year.

TLDR: Seattle’s outperformed what they should have based on their schedule to date and the lack of counters from their opponents. The addition of Rashid Shaheed adds another explosive element, but I still expect regression to the mean. Matchups against the Colts, Rams (x2), Vikings, and Falcons may limit explosiveness, while the others may allow it to continue.

Fantasy Takes

Sam Darnold

We’ve discussed Darnold a few times here, but formally, this offense has the weaponry to consider him a high-end QB2. He can’t enter the top end because he doesn’t run enough. He’s also limited by having a top defense and an offense that is 25th in PROE when leading. This team should be leading in many games moving forward, so he has to get there on efficiency.

I see some regression coming despite the addition of Rashid Shaheed because it’s simply been too good. You’re happy to have him, but he feels matchup-dependent. If they resign Shaheed, Darnold probably sits in this zone for the foreseeable future, which is good from a dynasty perspective.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Rashid Shaheed

I decided to combine JSN and Shaheed here because there’s a little Yin and Yang. It’s unclear who is going to be the deep threat. There are plays from last season in which Shaheed (under Kubiak) ran the exact same route JSN has this season. Both JSN and Shaheed have proven to be good at the deep plays. Perhaps they rotate and consider them interchangeable in the deep game. There’s no doubt that JSN is better than Shaheed on intermediate plays — he’s just a more refined route runner.

There’s at least a chance that the deep success tapers for JSN and drags him back from out of this stratosphere to a mid-tier WR1 where his XFP currently sits. He’s likely to sit there long-term as well. Earlier this year, I compared him to Charmeleon, but he’s Charizard. If the passing volume were higher, he would be in consideration for my overall WR1. I don’t anticipate that from the Seahawks.

For Shaheed, you’re hoping for the deep role because it’s going to bring the intense spikes. We know that the Seahawks offense has a high Condensed Route Rate™ — there’s room for a second receiver to thrive if they’re talented enough. Last week,that player was going to be Tory Horton, but now it's Shaheed. I think there’s astrong chance he signs long-term. He’s a volatile WR2 for me for the rest of the season, someone you put in and profit from the big weeks, but live with the floor. His film still looks strong. He’s been adversely impacted by the QB play in New Orleans. If people are scared of him leaving this off-season, I’d also buy in dynasty.

Tory Horton and Cooper Kupp

Cooper Kupp is really only here to address the elephant in the room — he’s droppable and doesn’t factor into my thinking in any fantasy format.

I was the biggest Tory Horton proponent last week, sticking my neck on the line and comparing him to one of the best WRs of all time, which was more of a hyperbole about his potential. I had time to think and react to the Shaheed trade. If Horton’s as talented as I think he is, he’s a great handcuff WR, which doesn’t happen very often. He’s also a great buy for dirt cheap in dynasty because these things don’t always play out exactly how we think. Talented players in crowded WR rooms emerge all the time, and Shaheed is a pending free agent.

Let’s see how it shakes out.

Tight Ends

Neither Elijah Arroyo nor AJ Barner is viable for season-long outside of deep league streaming. Both are going to be on the roster for multiple years and will likely eat into each other's route participation, which makes it hard for me to get into for dynasty.