Hansen's Hints: 2025 NFL Week 5

My goal for this article is to cover every nook and cranny for all remaining matchups after the practice week concludes Friday while also making it easy to consume so you know everything you need to know after a 10-15-minute read.

This year, I tried to tweak my process a little in an effort to be less wordy, and to make it easier to quickly scan the article and pick up the most important analysis included in a less than five minute read, but I failed again. Too much info.

PS: Here’s a look at the main abbreviations I’ll be using:

• ASS: Fantasy Points Data’s Average Separation Score metric.

• FP/RR: Fantasy points per route run

• TP/RR: Targets per route run

• YPRR: Yards per route run

• RS: Route share

• FRTS: First-read target share

• FP/DB: Fantasy points per dropback

• PROE: Pass/pressure rate over expectation

• YBC/Att: Yards before contact per attempt

• XFP: Expected fantasy points (based on snaps, routes, touches, etc.)

Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns, 9:30 a.m., Sun., London

FANTASY INJURIES:

• VIKINGS: As expected, they’re down starters on the OL in LG Donovan Jackson, C Ryan Kelly, his backup Michael Jurgens, and RT Brian O'Neill. Edge Andrew Van Ginkel is out again, a break for the Browns and their rookie QB.

• BROWNS: They have several starters on the injury report, but all are expected to play.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• The Browns use the fifth-highest rate of man coverage (40.3%), and JUSTIN JEFFERSON has been so-so against the coverage, averaging just 1.65 YPRR and .24 TPRR on 49 routes against man. Some of that is Carson Wentz, who has really struggled against man coverage. The good news is Jefferson will see a lot of Greg Newsome, who has been one one of the most giving CBs in the league, and lead receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown posted 7/70/2 receiving in this matchup last week. JJ’s averaged a strong 2.68 YPRR and .24 TPRR with Wentz, but he’s probably not getting double-digit targets like last week, since this game has the lowest total on the board this week.

• The Browns are going to lean on QUINSHON JUDKINS and their defense, and this is a great week for that, since the Vikings run defense is pretty bad, and so is their offense with three OL starters out. Judkins is the man now and he led the backfield in snap share (60%), carry share (78%), and route share (34%), and he has hit double-digit FP in his first three games. The Vikings allow the 12th-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.06), 4.4 YPC, and the ninth-most rushing YPG (108.5) to RBs, and Kenneth Gainwell of all people hit them for 19/99/2 rushing and 6/35 receiving last week. Barring a big play or two by the Vikings defense that changes the flow of the game, Judkins should get the volume needed for another 100+ yard day on the ground.

• With Cedric Tillman on IR, we can legitimately look at rookie ISAIAH BOND as a viable play, and he’s been coming on even with Tillman there. The Vikings allow the third-fewest receiving YPG (104.3) and the fewest FPG (104.3) to WRs, but he should see a lot of CB Josh Metellus, who is by far their weakest corner. You also have the rookie mojo with Dillon Gabriel, and Bond was already coming on before the Tillman injury, leading their passing attack with 58 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 6 targets (17%) on a 55% snap share last week.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• It could be tough sledding for JORDAN MASON, who’ll run behind an OL without C Ryan Kelly (concussion), Kelly’s backup, RT Brian O’Neill (knee), and LG and #1 pick Donovan Jackson (IR). And now he gets a Browns defense that gives up the fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (.79), 2.9 YPC, and the second-fewest rushing YPG (60.5) to RBs. Even worse, backup ZAVIER SCOTT put up 6/43/1 receiving on 8 targets in Week 4, and he beat Mason in route share (41%>33%). So if Mason doesn’t score, he’s probably coming up small.

• The Browns deploy the fifth-highest rate of man coverage (40.3%), and JORDAN ADDISON averages a poor 1.00 YPRR and .05 TPRR on 22 routes against man, and a similar player in Jameson Williams put up only 2/40 receiving on 8 targets in this matchup last week (but they did try to test the Browns deep last week with Jammo). He will see a lot of CB Denzel Ward, who is beatable for big plays, but the Browns pass rush will give Minnesota a lot of problems, so Addison looks boom-or-bust this week, with a lean toward bust.

• Minnesota gives up the seventh-fewest receiving YPG (76.8) and the fewest receptions (20) to receivers aligned out wide, and while the Bengals gave up in the fourth quarter offensively two weeks ago, Ja’Marr Chase posted 5/50 receiving in this matchup, which doesn’t bode well for JERRY JEUDY, who should see a lot of CB Byron Murphy, who is actually giving up fewer FP/RR than stud corner Isaiah Rodgers (.20 vs. .22 FP/RR). Jeudy ranks seventh in win rate (20.3%) among WRs who’ve run 75+ routes, and he did make one big play last week, but he still failed to hit 51 receiving yards in three straight games.

• I was around DILLON GABRIEL at the Senior Bowl earlier this year, and I observed our guy Brett Whitefield interviewing him on the field, and I will say this: the guy has a lot of confidence and moxie. I guess he should, since he’s played in a whopping 38 games in college. He’s probably a slight upgrade from Joe Flacco, and his mobility gives him some rushing potential, but his primary job this week will be to hand the ball off to Quinshon Judkins, whose matchup looks great. The Vikings also give up the third-fewest passing YPG (171.3) and the second-fewest passing TDs per game (.8) to QBs, so it would be surprising if Gabriel cracked 200 yards.

THE REST:

• Based on the early data, it is at least a positive schematic matchup for CARSON WENTZ overall, but the Browns play the fifth-highest rate of man coverage, and Wentz has struggled against man, posting a poor .16 FP/RR. The man coverage could at least mean Wentz takes off and runs 4-5 times, and WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison have very beatable matchups against CBs Greg Newsome and Denzel Ward, respectively. The main problem is the OL, since they’ll be down three starters in C Ryan Kelly (concussion) and RT Brian O’Neill (knee), and LG and #1 pick Donovan Jackson is on IR. He’ll probably post solid fantasy digits as he’s done (QB14 in FPG), but this one could be even uglier than last week, which was pretty ugly.

• The Browns haven’t given up much to TEs so far, but they have surrendered 2 TDs in four games, and T.J. HOCKENSON ranks fourth in A.S.S. (.078) and fourth in win rate (8.8%) among TEs who’ve run 75+ routes, so he’s okay. Problem is, the Browns use the fifth-highest rate of man coverage (40.3%), and he averages a putrid .54 YPRR and .10 TPRR on 41 routes against man. Sam LaPorta, who is good against man, posted only 3/39 receiving in this matchup last week. Carson Wentz could lock on him like he did two weeks ago, and Hockenson may catch 4-5 balls for 35-40 yards in the short passing game, but that and/or a TD may be all we can hope for here.

• Just as I suspected, the Browns TEs are canceling each other out, as DAVID NJOKU has yet to reach double-digit FP, and HAROLD FANNIN’S FP has fallen in four straight games (63>48>25>24). The Vikings give up the 11th-most receptions per game (5.3) to TEs, but also the 11th-fewest receiving YPG (41.0), plus we have a QB change this week, which muddies the waters a bit.

Looking BETTER than usual: Quinshon Judkins, Justin Jefferson

Looking WORSE than usual: Jerry Jeudy

Reach plays: Isaiah Bond

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• TEXANS: None of note.
• RAVENS: Cooper Rush starts for Lamar Jackson (out). They’re down starting CBs Chidobe Awuzie and Marlon Humphrey and stud LB Roquan Smith. S Kyle Hamilton is still questionable, but he’s trending toward playing. LT Ronnie Stanley has trended toward playing, but they again will be without FB Patrick Ricard.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• This is a very good spot for NICO COLLINS, since the reeling Ravens defense won’t have top corner Marlon Humphrey (calf, doubtful), and they won’t have a starter in Chidobe Awuzie, plus LB Roquan Smith is doubtful. The Ravens use the third-highest rate of man coverage (41.9%), and Collins averages a solid 1.93 YPRR and .30 TPRR on 30 routes against man. Of course last year, he had a fat 4.0 YPRR last season against man. They may use a lot of zone given their injuries, but they struggle to generate pressure, including just a 25% pressure rate in Week 4, and Baltimore has been susceptible to giving up big plays. Collins should definitely do better than the 3/59 receiving on 6 targets in this matchup last season.

• C.J. STROUD is coming off season-highs in passing yards (233), passing TDs (2), and FPG (18.4) last week, and the Ravens are allowing the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs (+6.6), the fourth-most passing YPG (271.0), and the third-most passing TDs per game (2.3), so Stroud has a chance here. He had only 185/0 and a 7-yard carry against the Ravens last Christmas, but that was a complete bed-soiling by the whole team. This looks like a decent schematic matchup, and Stroud has posted a decent .45 FP/DB against man coverage, which they have used 55% of the time (2nd-most). More importantly, it’s a great schematic/individual matchup for Nico Collins, and the Ravens are down their top corner in Marlon Humphrey (calf, doubtful), plus LB Roquan Smith is doubtful.

• The Ravens are allowing the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+11.2), and most of that is coming through the air, which bodes well for WOODY MARKS, who took over the backfield last week and had 4/50/1 receiving. The Ravens just put starting DT Nnamdi Madubuike on IR, and LB Roquan Smith is doubtful, so you have to like Marks’ chances as the Ravens give up the fifth-most rushing YPG (116.0), and the fifth-most receiving YPG (50.3) to RBs. Last week, the non-impactful Kansas City backfield totaled 24/78 rushing and 6/53/1 receiving in this matchup, so Marks and even NICK CHUBB are looking better than usual, possibly a lot better.

• The Ravens have given up the sixth-most receptions to TEs so far (26), and the 12th-most FPG to the position, so DALTON SCHULTZ is a decent TE streamer this week. He’s quietly tied for 10th at TE with 16 receptions, and he has been steady with 4-6 targets and 28-39 yards each week. He’s bad against man coverage, which they use at the third-highest rate (41.9%), but they should play more zone given all their injuries, and LB Roquan Smith is doubtful, which helps Schultz’ chances.

• I actually like all the Texans this week, and they’re all unlikely to have strong games, but if you need CHRISTIAN KIRK, this is a good spot. They may go to more zone this week given their defensive injuries, but they have used the third-highest rate of man coverage (41.9%) so far, and Kirk usually shreds man from the slot, and he averages an excellent 2.60 YPRR and .50 TPRR against man this year (on only 10 routes). He’s their slot and is inside 67.3% of the time, and Ravens allow the fifth-most receiving YPG (82.5) and the fourth-most receptions (34) to receivers aligned in the slot.

• The Ravens are feeling some heat this week because they have DERRICK HENRY, who looks fine, yet they rank fifth in pass rate over expectation (5.6%), and they are not running Henry on early downs this year. That should change this week against a weak Texans offense, and with Cooper Rush starting. Henry posted 27/147/1 rushing and 2/18 receiving in this matchup last season, and they are 1.5-point home favorites, so I’d expect a commitment to Henry and 20+ carries. You do worry about all of Baltimore’s injuries on defense hurting Henry’s chances for volume, but Houston’s offense is terrible, and it’s definitely easier to run on Houston than to throw on them, so I think we get at least 90/1 rushing in this one. FB Patrick Ricard is out again, unfortunately, and KEATON MITCHELL will play some along with JUSTICE HILL, so Henry isn’t going off here.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• COOPER RUSH isn’t going to push the ball down the field much, so this scary matchup may not be as scary as it is for another team. But Houston still gives up the eighth-fewest passing YPG (197.5) and the second-fewest passing TDs per game (.8) to QBs, and I do expect a big commitment to Derrick Henry this week.

• MARK ANDREWS is not toast, and he currently ranks second in A.S.S. (.115) among TEs who’ve run 75+ routes. He’s got 6+ receptions and 6+ targets in back-to-back games, but it’s a poor schematic matchup for him, and the Texans allow the fifth-fewest receiving YPG (32.0) and the ninth-fewest receptions per game (4.3) to TEs. Andrews and Likely each scored TDs in this matchup last season. ISAIAH LIKELY failed to register a single target on a 48% route share last week, so he can’t be used, but he’s in the mix, and he scored in this matchup last week.

THE REST:

• Backup Cooper Rush had 11 pass attempts in the 4th quarter last week, and he targeted ZAY FLOWERS five times (45.5% target share), so he should continue to roam in the short-to-intermediate area where Rush mostly works. Flowers got just 2/31 receiving in this matchup last season, and he should see a lot of stud CB Derek Stingley, which isn’t great. But he’s the alpha here and collected a 95% route share against the Chiefs last week and has hit 7 receptions and 74+ receiving yards in three of his first four games, and his A.S.S. (.208, fourth-best) and fifth in win rate (21.7%, fifth-best) among WRs who’ve run 75+ routes is elite.

• It is a solid schematic matchup for RASHOD BATEMAN, as the Texans use Cover 3 at the ninth-highest rate, and Bateman is top-20 at WR in FPG against Cover 3. But he’ll see a lot of CB Kamari Lassiter, who is giving up a stingy 0.23 FP/RR so far. The best matchup is actually for TYLAN WALLACE inside, often against Jalen Pitre.

Looking BETTER than usual: Nico Collins, Woody Marks, Derrick Henry

Looking WORSE than usual: Mark Andrews

Reach plays: Dalton Schultz, Christian Kirk

Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• DOLPHINS: They’re again down starting CB Storm Duck.
• PANTHERS: Chuba Hubbard is out, so Rico Dowdle does heavy lifting in the backfield. Next man up on passing downs at least is rookie Trevor Etienne. TE Ja'Tavion Sanders is out, so it’s Tommy Tremble o’clock. They’re down starting slot CB Chau Smith-Wade, could help Malik Washington.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• I wish I didn’t remove him from my target list due to the bad vibes because DE’VON ACHANE is delivering with 16.1+ FP in each of his first four games. He may not be needed to do a ton in the passing game, but it’s a good matchup on the ground, since the Panthers give up the ninth-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.12), the sixth-most rushing YPG (110.0). He led OLLIE GORDON in snap share (75%>25%), carry share (65%>19%), and route share (59%>15%) in Week 4, but this could be a week for Miami to really lean into its running game, as they did late last week, since it’s a bad coverage matchup for Tua.

• He’s the new #1 WR in Miami, and JAYLEN WADDLE has been their zone-beater, and the Panthers play the third-most zone in the league, so Waddle is looking solid on paper here. They use the second-highest rate of Cover 3 (45.7%), and he averages a strong 1.92 YPRR and .23 TPRR on 26 routes against the coverage. Based on alignment numbers, he should see a lot of CB Mike Jackson, who isn’t terrible, but is beatable. Of course, they could opt to get the stingy Jaycee Horn on him if Waddle makes some plays. But for what it’s worth, Stefon Diggs looked great putting up 6/101 receiving in this matchup last week, and Carolina ranks 30th in pressure rate (30.2%), and Tua’s considerably better from a clean pocket. With tempered expectations, Waddle should deliver a solid day, and there’s a chance he collects up to 6-7 grabs.

• Hey, the Panthers are stingy to WRs, but they allow the second-most receiving YPG (71.3) and .5 TDs per game to TEs, and even Kyle Pitts showed up with 4/39 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago. That means you could certainly go worse for a TE streamer this week than DARREN WALLER. He did look very good last week, but keep in mind he had only a 28% route share, so he’s still very TD-dependent. But when they get to the red area, he will surely be a focal point, as Tua needs a big-body to throw to.

• Somehow, Miami allows the ninth-fewest receiving YPG (82.5) and the ninth-most YPRR (2.23) to outside receivers, but this is unquestionably a good spot for TETAIROA MCMILLAN, who has the eight-best coverage grade out of 113 WRs with a projected 33.5% boost to his FP/RR. I know he’s been underwhelming, but this is also a good spot for his QB, and Garrett Wilson had one grab against this defense last week in the first half and finished with 6/82/1.

• The Dolphins have allowed 65+ receiving yards to three individual TEs, and the rookie Mason Taylor looked like a 3-time pro-bowler putting up 5/65 against them last week, so with Ja’Tavion Sanders out again, it’s TOMMY TREMBLE time! Miami plays the most Cover 2 in the league at 31.7%, and Tremble’s .58 FP/RR against Cover 2 ranks ninth out of 37 qualifying TEs against the coverage. We should be looking at a 5+ catch day.

• This is at least a solid matchup for BRYCE YOUNG, since Miami uses man coverage 27.8% of the time (third-most), and he excels against man with .66 FP/DB. He’s below average against their other shells, though. But their depleted secondary is also giving up the second-most FPG (26.7) and the 12th-most passing YPG (235.3) to QBs with multiple TDs and 23+ FP given up in four straight games.

• Hey, if you need a RB, by all means try out RICO DOWDLE, who should get 80% of the snaps this week or more. The Dolphins run defense is decent, and they give up the 16th-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.80), but also the seventh-most rushing YPG (110.0), and the fourth-most receiving YPG (53.0) to RBs. Dowdle has been playing behind Chuba Hubbard in passing situations, but Dowdle is a good receiver in his own right, and they seem to trust him in goal line situations, since he has had a 60%>20% lead on inside the 5-yard line carries for the season.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• He’s just lost Tyreek Hill, and now TUA TAGOVAILOA has a poor schematic matchup against the zone-heavy Panthers. The Panthers use Cover 3 at a top-2 clip (48% of the time), and Tua is 27th among 29 qualifying QBs with .15 FP/DB vs. Cover 3. Carolina gives up the ninth-fewest passing YPG (200.5) and the fifth-fewest passing TDs per game (1.0) to QBs, but there is one ray of hope: Carolina ranks 30th in pressure rate (30.2%), and Tua’s YPA (7.18>4.97), passer rating (107.4>53.3), and CPOE (+.6%>-6.1%) are significantly better from a clean pocket, and he does have 2 TDs passes in three straight games

• The Dolphins give up the 11th-fewest YPRR (1.47) and the second-fewest receiving YPG (39.0) to slot receivers, so this would not be an ideal time to roll out JALEN COKER, who may or may not make his 2025 debut off the IR this week.

THE REST:

• Based on alignment numbers, veteran NICK WESTBROOK-IKHINE may see the most of top corner Jaycee Horn, which would be a break for MALIK WASHINGTON. The Panthers use the second-highest rate of Cover 3 (45.7%), and Washington averages a poor .67 YPRR and .24 TPRR on 21 routes against the coverage. However, in their first full game without Tyreek Hill, I think Washington will garner 5-6 targets at least, since he leads all current Dolphins receivers with a 0.24 TPRR against Cover 3 this year, which represents a +33% boost. He’s also seen a +63% YPRR boost against Cover 3, so they should be more inclined to use him. It’s a good schematic matchup for Bryce Young, so I think Washington will catch 4-5 balls, for what it’s worth. Slot CB Chau Smith-Wade is out, which can’t hurt.

Looking BETTER than usual: De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, Tet McMillan

Looking WORSE than usual: Tua Tagovailoa

Reach plays: Malik Washington, Darren Waller, Rico Dowdle, Byce Young

Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• RAIDERS:TE Michael Mayer (concussion) was downgraded to out, and Brock Bowers was a DNP late in the week and is now trending toward not playing, leaving veteran Ian Thomas as the TE1.
• COLTS: WR Alec Pierce is out again, so one fewer mouth to feed. Slot Kenny Moore is out, solid news for Jakobi Meyers.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• The Colts give up the 11th-fewest rushing YPG (78.8), but that’s a function of containing Miami and Tennessee’s running games, no great accomplishment. They also allow up the fifth-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.48), and that’s critical for ASHTON JEANTY, who was averaging a terrible 1.13 YBCO/ATT through three weeks heading into last week, when he crushed the Bears for 21/138/1 rushing. It’s a similar situation this week, and 66.2% of Jeanty’s rush attempts have come on zone concepts (9th-most of 43 qualifying RBs), on which he’s averaging 5.31 YPC (6th-best), and Indy has been generous to opposing zone concepts (5.24 YPC allowed, 4th-most) compared to man/gap (3.71 YPC allowed, 10th-fewest). Indy gave up 77 yards rushing on only 13 carries to Kyren Williams last week.

• The Colts have also been a top-5 pass funnel this year (+4.6% PROE allowed), and they’re allowing the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WR (+8.6), including the 2nd-most to opposing slots (+4.8) after getting debacled by Puka Nacua (13/170/1) last week, so JAKOBI MEYERS is looking good with Brock Bowers (and his backup) likely out. He’s inside 63.4% of the time and Indy allows the second-most receiving YPG (90.3) and the eighth-most receptions (30) to opposing slots.

• The Colts have also been a top-5 pass funnel this year (+4.6% PROE allowed), and they’re allowing the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WR (+8.6), and the schematic matchup is excellent for TRE TUCKER. They do give up the eighth-fewest YPR (11.25) to outside WRs, but Indy runs 60% two-high coverage, and Tucker has a 17% target share against two-high coverage, second highest on the team, and he averages 2.12 YPRR, tied 25th in the NFL. The Colts have given up a 73.5% completion percentage (29th) and 8.27 YPA to targets out wide, including 9.1 YPA when lined up in two-high coverage, so this could be a game where he eats. No Bowers helps a lot.

• The Raiders have been the NFL’s 2nd-most extreme pass funnel this year (+5.7% PROE allowed), and Vegas gives up the 10th-most passing YPG (237.0) and the 10th-most rushing YPG (23.8) to QBs, so DANIEL JONES looks good. He averages 8.57 YPA against zone coverage, which the Raiders run at the highest rate in the NFL, and Vegas runs Cover 3 at the highest rate (54.7%), and Jones is fifth in FP/DB against the shell this year (.58), averaging 8.91 YPA with a 103.3 passer rating on 121 attempts against the coverage. The Raiders are also giving up 9.17 YPA (5th-most and a +44% efficiency boost) and a 13.7% CPOE (3rd-highest) against play-action passes this year, and Indy leads the NFL with a 37.6% play action dropback rate. Jones has averaged 9.87 YPA on play action passes this season, 5th in the NFL, and he has 82.6% catchable ball rate, 8th in the NFL, and he leads the league in YPG (113.5) on play action. I think we’re lookin’ good!

• The Colts lead the NFL with a 37.6% play action dropback rate, and TYLER WARREN averages an insane 6.47 YPRR on play action (#1 in the NFL), and he’s seen 59% of his targets and 74% of his yardage on only those plays. Vegas should know it’s coming, since Warren ranks 6th-best among all WRs in play action FP/RR (1.08), but the Raiders are deploying Cover 3 at the highest rate in the NFL (54.4%), and his 32.3% target share and 0.74 FP/RR against Cover 3 rank 4th-best and 5th-best among all WRs, respectively. Vegas also gives up a whopping 13.9 YPR to TEs, so we’ll likely see at least one chunk play from the rookie this week.

• The Raiders give up a 10.87 YPA to outside targets (30th in NFL), and MICHAEL PITTMAN lines up out wide about 72% of the time. He also has a 28.3% target rate on play action passes, and Indy leads the NFL with a 37.6% play action dropback rate while the Raiders are also giving up 9.17 YPA (5th-most and a +44% efficiency boost) and a 13.7% CPOE (3rd-highest) against play-action passes this year. Vegas gives up the second-most receiving YPG (146.8) and the seventh-most receptions (36) to outside receivers. He’s hit 40+ yards and 4+ receptions in every game, and given the fantastic schematic matchup for his QB and the absence of Alec Piece again, I see at least a 5/60 game with a TD more likely than usual. Pittman could go off with AD Mitchell’s role reduced.

THINGS TO FEAR: None of note.

THE REST:

• The Raiders have been the NFL’s 2nd-most extreme pass funnel this year (+5.7% PROE allowed) because their pass defense stinks and their run defense is good, which isn’t ideal for JONATHAN TAYLOR. Vegas gives up the third-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.25) and the 10th-fewest rushing YPG (74.0), so he could get pinched here. Then again, he could score 2-3 TDs as they move the ball up and down the field.

• Indy allows the 15th-fewest receiving YPG (44.3) and the 16th-most receptions per game (4.8) to TEs, and Chig Okonkwo posted 5/66 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago, so I’m optimistic that BROCK BOWERS can come up with a strong game in a likely shootout. Vegas runs Cover 3 at a top-8 clip (32%), and Bowers is 2nd among 37 qualifying TEs with .80 FP/RR against Cover 3, so it’s a good schematic matchup. BUT, he’s trending toward not playing as of late Saturday.

• GENO SMITH is not playing well, and he ranks 29th in CPOE (-.3%), 31st in catchable throw rate (70.9%), and 34th in turnover-worthy throw rate (6.3%) out of 35 QBs. It’s also not the greatest schematic matchup overall. But they do use the 13th-highest rate of Cover 3, and he’s a solid 8th in FP/DB against the shell (.47). Indy just lost a starting CB to retirement in Xavien Howard, and they allow the 11th-most passing YPG (236.5) and the fifth-most passing TDs per game (2.0) to QBs. Another pocket passer in Matthew Stafford lit them up last week with 375/3 passing, so he could be looking a lot worse heading into this one. No Bowers hurts a lot, though.

Looking BETTER than usual: Daniel Jones, Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman, Ashton Jeanty, Jakobi Meyers

Looking WORSE than usual: Brock Bowers

Reach plays: Tre Tucker, Geno Smith

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• GIANTS: Tyrone Tracy is doubtful, so expect Cam Skattebo to carry the load. DT Dexter Lawrence (illness) is questionable.
• SAINTS: They’re down starting RG Cesar Ruiz, not great for their running game. TEs Foster Moreau and Taysom HIll are both back.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• New Orleans actually has a pass rush this year, and they will look to get to rookie Jaxson Dart, so the best thing Big Blue can do is control the ground game and stay out of third-and-long by feeding CAM SKATTEBO, who easily led Devin Singletary in snap share (75%>25%), carry share (60%>17%), and route share (57%>20%) last week. LT Andrew Thomas is in the lineup, a huge key to their offense, and it’s a good spot for Skattebo, as the Saints give up the 10th-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.11), the 12th-most rushing YPG (97.0), and they’re a little stingier against RBs in the passing game, giving up the 14th-fewest receiving YPG (28.0) to RBs. Skattebo is averaging a strong 4.83 YPC on man/gap concept runs, and the opposing runners vs. the Saints see a 27.7% boost to their YPC on those same concepts, so I can see him ripping off a longer run or two on those types of runs. Most of all, I’m expecting volume, since the Giants are 1.5-point road favorites.

• The Saints have been a perimeter funnel this year, having allowed the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (+11.1) but the 2nd-fewest to the slot (-5.3), and DARIUS SLAYTON averaged 11.0 targets per game and 89.5 receiving YPG in two games Malik Nabers missed last season, so he has shot. The Saints rank top-4 in Cover 3 usage, and he averages 2.90 YPRR and .17 TPRR on 30 routes against the coverage. They also give up the second-most YPRR (2.74) and the seventh-most receiving YPG (126.3) to outside receivers. Obviously, though, it’s uncharted territory with rookie Jaxson Dart playing like his last name is “Tebow,” so I can’t call Slaton a great reach, merely a viable one.

• The Giants have allowed the highest pass rate over expectation of any defense (+9.0%), which is good for all involved in the passing game, and they use the highest rate of man coverage (46.4%), and CHRIS OLAVE is merely OK against it, averaging 1.42 YPRR and .27 TPRR on 33 routes. He’s still tied for team lead in target share against man coverage (29.0%), though, and he still ranks 2nd behind only Puka Nacua at the position in overall XFP/G (18.7) while shockingly ranking 3rd in catchable XFP/G. He also runs 39% of his routes from the slot, and the Giants give up the third-most receiving YPG (85.8) and the second-most receptions (36) to receivers aligned inside, so there’s breakout potential here with CB Cordale Flott being their weak link.

• Also looking good with the Giants forcing the highest pass rate over expectation of any defense (+9.0%) is RASHID SHAHEED, who used to be Mr. Zone Beater, but now he’s a man-beater, averaging 3.24 YPRR against Cover 1 this year — a +153% boost. Rattler also has a 20.0% deep throw rate against man this season (2nd-highest behind only Josh Allen), compared to just 7.3% against zone (24th), and Big Blue is surrendering the 4th-most receiving YPG on throws traveling 20 or more yards downfield (57.8), so Shaheed definitely has some upside here. On the downside, he should see more of top CB Paulson Adebo, but he’s at least not a shutdown guy.

• The Giants are allowing the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing runners (+4.5) and the the fourth-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.51) along with the fourth-most rushing YPG (116.3). ALVIN KAMARA should get some volume here, but KENDRE MILLER is now pushing for carries, and the Giants give up the 15th-fewest receiving YPG (29.5) to RBs. Miller didn’t run a single route last week, but Kamara is down to career low in receiving YPG (12.3), so he’s probably still in need of a TD to come through.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• Obviously, with Foster Moreau and Taysom Hill returning this week, that’s a problem for JUWAN JOHNSON, whose fantasy output has dropped three straight weeks, bottoming out to 3/28 on 3 targets in Week 4. The other issues are as follows: the Giants deploy the highest rate of man coverage (46.4%), and he averages a poor 1.12 YPRR and .24 TPRR on 34 routes against it, and New York gives up the 12th-fewest receiving YPG (42.3) and just 4.5 YPT and 7.3 YPR to TEs. Travis Kelce does look a little “toasty” but the future HOFer managed just 4/26 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago. This should be a big Chris Olave day, and maybe a Rashid Shaheed day.

THE REST:

• New Orleans gives up the second-fewest YPRR (1.16) and the fewest receptions (17) to slot receivers aligned in the slot, but they could not handle KHALIL SHAKIR in this matchup last week, and he put up 5/69/1 receiving. He’s decent against Cover 3, which they run 42.6% of the time, averaging 1.57 YPRR, but he got just 3/14 receiving on 5 targets (24%) in Dart’s first start last week, and you’d like to see it first with Wan’Dale and Dart before you use the WR.

• This is a positive schematic matchup for SPENCER RATTLER, who is 11th in FP/DB against man coverage, which the Giants use at the highest rate right now (49.1%). Rattler has a 20.0% deep throw rate against man this season (2nd-highest behind only Josh Allen), compared to just 7.3% against zone (24th). Despite holding down Justin Herbert (203/1 passing) and Patrick Mahomes (224/1) recently, New York New gives up the eighth-most passing YPG (255.3). At some point, NY’s pass rush has to show up, and if they do this week, Rattler should run often, especially when they’re in man, and they give up the seventh-most rushing YPG (27.8) to QBs.

• The Giants have new life with JAXSON DART, and with LT Andrew Thomas in the lineup, Dart has a chance. The Saints can get to the QB here and there, but they rank last in pressure rate (28.7%), and Dart’s passer rating (114.3>51.4) and CPOE (+5.2%>-19.8%) were significantly better from a clean pocket in his debut. The Saints give up the 15th-fewest passing YPG (221.0), but the 11th-most rushing YPG (22.8) to QBs, and Dart in his debut was very run-centric.

• The Saints give up the 14th-most receiving YPG (49.5) and the 12th-fewest receptions per game (4.5) to TEs, so I’m not that excited about THEO JOHNSON here. He had a team-high 5 targets (24%) and he scored, but he only got 3/17. DALTON KINCAID also scored last week in this matchup, but it was his only target.

Looking BETTER than usual: Cam Skattebo, Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara/Kendre Miller

Looking WORSE than usual: Juwan Johnson

Reach plays: Darius Slayton, Rashid Shaheed

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets, 1 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• COWBOYS: Offensive weapon KaVontae Turpin is out. They have opened the practice window on Jonathan Mingo, so he could be in play. They’re down two OL starters in LT Tyler Guyton and LG Tyler Booker, which isn’t great. Starting FS Malik Hooker is out, so they’re weaker there (maybe).
• JETS: Starting slot CB Michael Carter is out, so if Mingo plays, he’ll be his replacement.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• New York gives up the ninth-fewest receiving YPG (37.5) and the 15th-most receptions per game (4.8) to TEs, but they’ve allowed the 5th-most to opposing TEs (+4.2) due to TDs given up, and scoring TDs is the only thing JAKE FERGUSON doesn’t do this year. He leads the team with a 24.7% target share without CeeDee Lamb, and he’s leading the league in catch rate (87.2%) among receivers who’ve seen 20+ targets. No Jets fan was surprised when Darren Waller posted 3/27/2 receiving last week (on 10 routes!), so they’re vulnerable to TEs, meaning Ferg could go off again.

• Rookie TE MASON TAYLOR looked like a 4-year pro out there on MNF, and he quickly looks like their #2 receiver with 7 targets (26%) and a 74% route share in Week 4. Dallas is middling against TEs, but they haven’t played anyone of note, and they give up production, like 7/44 to Dallas Goedert Week 1, 4/34 to Theo Johnson, 2/41/1 to Bears TEs, and 5/56 to Tucker Kraft last week. Dallas uses Cover 2 (24.2%) and Cover 3 (39.9%) at a 64.1% clip, and he averages a rock solid 1.71 YPRR and .21 TPRR on 58 routes against those coverages. Against Cover 3, which he should see around 39.9% of the time, he leads the Jets in receiving with 89 yards to Wilson’s 66, and his TPRR sees a +50% boost with his YPRR more than doubling from 1.18 to 2.34.

• The Cowboys are allowing the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+7.2), and BREECE HALL no longer has to worry about Braelon Allen at the goal. He leads all RBs in explosive run rate this season (11.5%), and Dallas has been hit by opposing explosive runs at the 9th-highest rate and they have allowed the 5th-highest success rate to opposing zone concepts, which have accounted for 82.7% of Hall’s attempts this year (most in the NFL). They also give up the third-most receiving YPG (57.0) to RBs, and Josh Jacobs recorded 22/86/2 rushing and 4/71 receiving in this matchup last week, so it would be an upset if Breece didn’t get to 100+ total yards with #2 Isaiah Davis playing less than a third of the time.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• Sauce Gardner allowed 4 catches for 57 yards and a TD to the combination of Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka in Week 3, so he’s not impervious to giving up some production, but his strong coverage could certainly slow GEORGE PICKENS down. They will move George around to try to shed the Sauce shadow, and the Jets are an inside slot/TE funnel, allowing the 7th-most schedule-adjusted FPG he 5th-most to opposing TEs (+4.2), but the 8th-fewest to opposing outside WRs (Pickens can also go inside). The thing about Pickens is, even if he doesn't have a big game, he tends to come close.

THE REST:

• The Jets give up the fourth-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.25), and they’re down two OL starters in LT Tyler Guyton and LG Tyler Booker, so it may not be a great day for JAVONTE WILLIAMS on the ground, and we’re going to see some action from rookie JAYDON BLUE. At least the Jets are the league’s 2nd-most extreme run funnel (-4.0% PROE allowed) and have allowed 13.9+ FP to a lead back in every game, and De’Von Achane last week.

• This isn’t a great matchup based on coverage, since DAK PRESCOTT has so far been so-so against man coverage, which the Jets run at a top-6 clip. Of course, George Pickens in theory should crush man. They give up the 11th-fewest passing YPG (208.5), but the eighth-most passing TDs per game (1.8) to QBs, and he’s dealing right now with a league- leading catchable throw rate (82.5%) highly accurate rate (63.9%). It is likely that George Pickens is relatively contained by top corner Sauce Gardner, and offensive weapon KaVontae Turpin is out.

• With KaVontae Turpin out, JALEN TOLBERT gets elevated to a larger role, and the Jets allow the sixth-most receiving YPG (80.0) and the second-most YPRR (2.22) to receivers aligned in the slot. Starting slot CB Michael Carter is also out, which helps. But before you use Tobert with some confidence, check on JONATHAN MINGO, who could be activated ahead of Week 5 and suit up. He’s been out all year, of course.

• Dallas allows the most passing YPG (309.3) and the sixth-most rushing YPG (30.5) to QBs, and everyone they’ve faced has accounted for 24.3+ FP. However, JUSTIN FIELDS averages just 0.29 FP/DB against zone coverage this year, compared to 1.81 FP/DB and a 138.4 passer rating against man. It makes sense, since he locks on Garrett Wilson, who is also not nearly as good against zone. But it probably doesn’t matter, since Dallas’ defense stinks and Fields has run for 48+ yards in every game.

• The Cowboys have deployed Cover 3 at a top-5 rate this season (39.9%), doing so 42% and 66% of the time against the two mobile QBs they’ve faced (Jalen Hurts and Caleb Williams), and they’re playing the 2nd-highest rate of zone coverage (87.6%). GARRETT WILSON’S TPRR falls 30% against Cover 3 this year, and his YPRR is nearly cut in half (from 3.91 to 2.02) when facing zone coverage instead of man coverage. Wilson is a stud, and Dallas still stinks on defense, but he may not go nuts here, since the guys who’ve crushed Dallas have been the man-beater types.

Looking BETTER than usual: Breece Hall, Mason Taylor, Jake Ferguson

Looking WORSE than usual: George Pickens

Reach plays: Jalen Tolbert

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• BRONCOS: Backup TE Lucas Krull is out.
• EAGLES: None of note, and they will NOT get LB Nakobe Dean back this week from PUP.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• The Broncos deploy the second-highest rate of man coverage (43.5%), and DEVONTA SMITH averages 2.50 YPRR and .25 TPRR on 24 routes against man. Denver gives up the 15th-fewest YPRR (1.59) and the 16th-fewest receptions (25) to slot receivers, though, and Ladd McConkey got only 4/41 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago. It is a good schematic matchup against the Broncos’ man-heavy defense, which represents a +140% boost to his YPRR, and A.J. Brown will have his hands full with Pat Surtain. He’s failed to reach double-digit FP in three of his first four games, but he’s looking solid here potential-wise.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• I figured BO NIX would play well in a good matchup against the Bengals last week, and he certainly did. But heading into the game, his season was a little suspect, and now he takes aim at an Eagles defense that gave up 200+ yards passing last week for the first time, thanks to Baker Mayfield’s TWO fluky 70+ yard TD passes. Nix has been good against Cover 1 this year, which Philly runs at a top-12 clip (29.9%), and he’s third in FP/DB against it, but his #1 WR Courtland Sutton should catch a shadow from Quinyon Mitchell, who allows .23 FP/RR. Additionally, S Cooper DeJean can help contain production inside, which is critical with Denver’s slot WRs making a lot of plays for them. Philly also plays zone 70% of the time, and Nix has been mostly poor against zone. One positive is the fact that the Eagles have allowed 8.7 YPA on play-action pass attempts this season (8th-most), compared to just 5.5 YPA on non-play-action attempts (3rd-fewest), and they use play-action on 33.1% of their dropbacks (3rd-most). The Broncos rank fourth in pass rate over expectation (7.3%) through three weeks, but they should lean into their 2-headed running game against a beatable run D.

• The Eagles do allow the ninth-most receiving YPG (119.0) and the 15th-most receptions (30) to receivers aligned out wide, but a lot of that is their shaky #2 CB spot because, over his last two games, Quinyon Mitchell, who gives up a stingy .23 FP/RR, and who has allowed just 4 catches for 18 yards on 11 targets to a hotshot rookie Emeka Egbuka, and a future Hall-of-Famer in Davante Adams. COURTLAND SUTTON is one of the most consistent receivers in fantasy, but he’s not immune to goose-egging people, like he did in Week 2 with 1 grab for 6 yards against Indy. He could easily be your best option, and the Eagles have allowed the 2nd-most deep receiving YPG on throws traveling 20+ yards downfield (68.5), but if you normally deliberate on Sutton, this is a week to look elsewhere.

• The Eagles allow the third-fewest receiving YPG (24.3) and the fifth-fewest receptions per game (3.5) to TEs, so it’s probably not ideal week to try out EVAN ENGRAM. He did have a solid Week 4 with season-highs in targets (7), receptions (4), receiving yards (29), route share (59%), so he’s not hopeless. Lucas Krull is out, which helps a little.

THE REST:

• The Eagles give up the 15th-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.79), the 11th-most rushing YPG (97.3), and the 11th-most receiving YPG (41.5) to RBs, so they haven’t been as strong as usual. They let Bucky Irving pile up 5/63 rushing last week. I can’t say that J.K. DOBBINS or R.J. HARVEY are in a great spot, but they both looked awesome last week, and Harvey has some hope with the receiving production Philly has given up. This could also be a close, low-scoring affair, and I’d think Denver would love to lean into its running game.

• The Eagles give up the third-fewest receiving YPG (41.0) and the fewest YPRR (.82) to receivers aligned in the slot, so I’m not inclined to back TROY FRANKLIN. But he’s not hopeless, since Denver uses a lot of play-action, and he easily leads the Broncos in TPRR (0.43) and FP/RR (0.92) on play action, which ranks top-10 among all WRs. Cooper DeJean is tough to throw against, but Sean Payton’s play design will likely give Franklin a few chances to make a big play or two. Of course, it’s impossible to know right now who’ll produce between him and MARVIN MIMS, who crushed last week with 6/69 receiving and a 16-yard TD rushing TD.

• This could be another tough go on the ground for SAQUON BARKLEY, since the Broncos give up the fifth-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.45), and 68.8% of his rush attempts this season have utilized zone concepts (7th-most), against which the Broncos have surrendered just 3.03 YPC (3rd-fewest) and a 40.0% success rate (9th-worst). This is very similar to last week, when I had his receiving prop as my #1 prop of the week. He’s caught 4 passes in three of his first four games, and the Broncos also give up the 10th-most receiving YPG (42.3) to RBs, and over their last three games, Jonathan Taylor (2/51/1), Omarion Hampton (6/59), and Chase Brown (3/31) all produced in the passing game. The Broncos have blitzed 34.4% of the time this year, the 7th-highest rate in the NFL, and Jalen Hurts has been abysmal against the blitz this season, so the checkdown to Barkley should be seriously in play again.

• The Broncos give up the fourth-fewest YPRR (1.36) and the 11th-fewest receiving YPG (84.3) to outside receivers, and it’s a strong schematic matchup for A.J. BROWN against Denver’s man-heavy defense, which gets him a +117% more YPRR boost. Of course, we’re projecting Brown to catch a shadow from Pat Surtain, who has allowed just 0.18 FP/RR in coverage this year (10th-fewest). Quentin Johnston did get 6/89 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago, and Brown will probably counter-intuitively produce with the league’s toughest matchup.

• The Broncos have blitzed 34.4% of the time this year, the 7th-highest rate in the NFL, and JALEN HURTS has been poor against the blitz, his highly accurate throw rate falls from 56.9% without a blitz to just 30.2% when blitzed, and his FP/DB falling from 1.03 to just 0.22. Denver also gives up the fewest FPG (11.8) to QBs, so with the Eagles ranking 31st in pass rate over expectation (-4.9%) through four weeks, we could see a bit of a slugfest here with underwhelming production.

• The Broncos deploy the second-highest rate of man coverage (43.5%), and DALLAS GOEDERT averages a terrible .50 YPRR against man this year, and Denver gives up the 14th-fewest receiving YPG (44.0) and the eighth-fewest receptions per game (3.8) to TEs. He’s hit 33+ yards and 10.3+ FP in all three games, so you could do worse.

Looking BETTER than usual: DeVonta Smith

Looking WORSE than usual: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, AJ Brown

Reach plays: None of note.

Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• TITANS: They’re down RT JC Latham again, a buzzkill. Calvin Ridley was limited all week (knee, elbow). RB Tajae Spears has been activated from IR and should play.
• CARDINALS: It looks like they’ll get CB Will Johnson back, and he’s been good in limited action. LG Evan Brown is out along with starting DT Darius Robinson.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• Arizona is a 7.5-point favorite against a Titans defense allowing the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing runners (+3.1), MICHAEL CARTER may actually have a shot on the ground, and he’s also an accomplished receiver. The Cardinals have used man/gap concepts on 59.6% of their rush attempts this season, the highest rate in the NFL, and the Titans are allowing the 4th-most YPC (5.72) and a top-12 success rate (56.6%) on opposing man/gap runs this year along with and they are top-5 figure in YBC/ATT (2.28). EMARI DEMERCADO will be in the mix as a runner and if he’s the “hot hand” he could get more carries, but his main deal is the passing-game role. We have a low total of 41 and the Cards are heavy favorites, so he might not be needed much. They also have BAM KNIGHT and D’ERNEST JOHNSON. I don’t have a good feeling in general about this backfield, but this week their rushing offense looks better than usual, so Carter should be the play. Woody Marks broke out for the first time in this matchup last week.

• Tennessee gives up the 16th-fewest receiving YPG (98.3) and the 14th-most receptions (31) to receivers aligned out wide, and it’s a solid spot for MARVIN HARRISON. We’re projecting shadow coverage from L'Jarius Sneed, who gives up a fairly stingy 0.28 FP/RR. However, he’s aging and beatable downfield, and Nico Collins (4/79 receiving), Michael Pittman (6/73/1), Davante Adams (6/106/1), and Courtland Sutton (6/61/1) have all eaten in this matchup this year, so I think Marvin will be solid.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• The Cards give up the second-most receptions (42) to receivers aligned on the perimeter, but CALVIN RIDLEY has been brutal to open the season, and now he’s hurt and was limited all week (knee, elbow), so he’s pretty hopeless. It’s a bad schematic matchup, as they use Cover 4 (28.3%) and Cover 3 (28.3%) at a 56.3% clip, and he averages a poor 1.27 YPRR against those coverages and should see a lot of rookie CB Will Johnson, who has been very good so far.

• The Titans give up the eighth-fewest receiving YPG (36.3) and the 12th-fewest receptions per game (4.5) to TEs, and they held Tyler Warren in check last week (3/38 on 5 targets), so we may not get a big TREY MCBRIDE day with the Cards a good bet to have a lot of success on the ground.

THE REST:

• He’s been much more productive as a Titan in wins, and they’re 7.5 underdogs, which is not a good look for TONY POLLARD. He hasn’t gotten it done while owning the backfield, and now TAJAE SPEARS is in the mix. Pollard and the running game showed some promise last week, but Arizona is also giving up the 12th-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.76), the 13th-fewest rushing YPG (79.8), and the seventh-most receiving YPG (46.5) to RBs. The Seattle RBs produced last week in this matchup, but Pollard once again looks very “meh” in a bad offense.

• The Cardinals deploy Cover 4 (28.3%) and Cover 3 (28.3%) at a 56.3% clip, and ELIC AYOMANOR averages a solid 1.85 YPRR against those coverages. They also allow the sixth-most receiving YPG (135.5) to receivers aligned on the perimeter. Back in Week 2, fellow rookie Tetairoa McMillan posted 6/100 receiving on 10 targets in this matchup in Week 2, but the Cards play the highest rate of Cover 4, and EA has yet to register a fantasy point on that coverage, so it’s not an ideal schematic matchup.

• The Cardinals allow the fifth-most passing YPG (267.0) to QBs, but that doesn’t really matter with CAM WARD being unusable.

• The Cardinals rank second in pass rate over expectation (8.8%), which helps KYLER MURRAY’S chances for fantasy. The Titans allow the 13th-most passing YPG (233.8) to QBs, and he’s run for 32 to 41 yards in every game. He has a terrible 5.7 YPA, but I do think we’ll see a big play from Marvin Harrison here. Of course, it’s a tougher matchup for Trey McBride, and the Cards may run with their backs a lot.

• ZAY JONES is back this week, so I guess we can’t use GREG DORTCH!

Looking BETTER than usual: Marvin Harrison

Looking WORSE than usual: Trey McBride

Reach plays: Michael Carter

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• BUCCANEERS: No Mike Evans again. Bucky Irving is out with Rachaad White filling in along with some Sean Tucker. White should dominate the backfield routeshare. They’re down top CB Jamel Dean and his backup Benjamin Morrison is also out, plus CB/S Christian Izien, not bad news for Seattle and JSN.
• SEAHAWKS: CB Devon Witherspoon (knee) has been ruled out, a break for the Bucs.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• With Bucky Irving out, RACHAAD WHITE is in line for 15-20 opportunities, and I do think this could surprisingly shoot out. #3 SEAN TUCKER will certainly get chances, and they could ride him a little if he’s the hot hand, but I’m pretty confident White can produce solid RB2 totals. Seattle gives up the seventh-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (.149), the seventh-fewest rushing YPG (71.0), but also most receiving YPG (66.5) to RBs, so this could easily be a game where White posts a receiving line of 4/40 or better, giving him a solid floor. The OL is still depleted, but White’s running well behind it this year, averaging 4.7 YPC and .26 missed tackles forced per attempt.

• The Seahawks use the fourth-highest rate of two-high safeties (62.1%), and CHRIS GODWIN averages .92 YPRR on 12 routes against the shell. Godwin was outside 63% of the time last week, and the Seahawks give up the fewest YPRR (1.17) and the 13th-fewest receptions (28) to receivers aligned out wide. However, he averaged 3.88 YPRR (3rd-best) and 0.77 FP/RR (4th-best) against Cover 4 and Cover 6 in 2024, and he should see those shells about 40% of the time. His chances improve with Devon Witherspoon out, so I’m leaning positive this week for Godwin.

• Tampa Bay ranks third in blitz rate (39.4%), and SAM DARNOLD’S YPA (8.08<10.70) and CPOE (+7.0%<+15.4%) actually improves against the blitz. It’s a tougher matchup, since the Bucs give up the 10th-fewest passing YPG (208.0). But they’re down top CB Jamel Dean and two other DBs are out, and they have given up multiple TDs to QBs in 3-of-4 games and give up the fourth-most rushing YPG (39.5) to the QBs. The Seahawks rank 30th in pass rate over expectation (-4.8%) through four weeks, but Sammy may have to throw it more in this one.

• He’s tough to trust, but if you need him, COOPER KUPP has a chance to produce in this one. Although we have a lower total of 44, this could be a higher-scoring affair, and despite the fact that Devonta Smith got just 2/29 receiving in this matchup last week, TB gives up the fifth-most receptions (32) and the 15th-most receiving YPG (67.0) to receivers aligned in the slot. They’re also down top CB Jamel Dean, his backup Benjamin Morrison, plus CB/S Christian Izien, which can’t hurt.

THINGS TO FEAR: None of note.

THE REST:

• It’s a tougher spot for BAKER MAYFIELD, since the Seahawks have intercepted the second-most passes per game (1.8) to QBs and have enjoyed strong play in the secondary. However, they give up the 14th-most passing YPG (227.5) and no CB Devon Witherspoon (knee) helps. Baker’s also dealing majorly and playing out of his mind, and he ranked top-3 in FP/DB and 4th-best in YPA against Cover 4 + 6 last season, and he’ll see that about 40% of the time in this one.

• The Seahawks have deployed Cover 4 and Cover 6 at the NFL’s 2nd-highest rate this season (36.8%) and EMEKA EGBUKA leads the Buccaneers with a 30.6% target share and has been targeted on 37% of his routes against Cover 4, a +61% boost compared to all shells. Against the combination of Cover 4 and Cover 6, Egbuka ranks 7th-best by FP/RR (0.66), which is +40% more than against all other shells. They also use the fourth-highest rate of two-high safeties (62.1%), and he averages 3.36 YPRR against the shell. CB Devon Witherspoon (knee) has been ruled out, which is a break for Egbuka. However, he ran 70% of his routes outside last week, and Seattle gives up the fewest receiving YPG (66.0) and have yet to allow a TD to a receiver aligned on the perimeter.

• The Buccaneers are an underneath funnel, having allowed the 3rd-most receiving YPG on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (163.3) but the 2nd-fewest on the deep ball (12.8), so we might not see a big play to JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA. In addition, Seahawks have allowed pressure on 59.5% of opposing blitzes (2nd-most), and the Bucs blitz at the NFL’s 3rd-highest rate (39.4%), and JSN’s TPRR is cut in half against the blitz. The Bucs also give up the second-fewest receiving YPG (67.8) and the eighth-fewest receptions (26) to receivers out wide. On the bright side, Garrett Wilson accumulated 10/84/1 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.

• The Buccaneers give up the ninth-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.51), the fewest rushing YPG (54.0), and the second-most receiving YPG (61.3) to RBs, so this could be a problem with the Seahawks splitting the backfield with Zach Charbonnet and KENNETH WALKER. Saquon Barkley turned in 19/43/1 rushing and 4/31 receiving against the Bucs last week, which is not good. Of course, Charbonnet led in route share (42%>39%) last week and he has handled 100% of the carries from inside the 5-yard line in their three games played together.

Looking BETTER than usual: Rachaad White, Chris Godwin

Looking WORSE than usual: None of note.

Reach plays: Cooper Kupp, Sam Darnold

Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals, 4:25 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• LIONS: They put stud CB D.J. Reed is on IR, so he’s out, which helps Cincy considerably. LT Taylor Decker (shoulder) didn’t practice all week, so his status is one to monitor Sunday AM.
• BENGALS: They’re getting Noah Fant back.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• The Bengals are allowing the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+7.6), including the 2nd-most through the air (+5.6), and they’ve been especially burned by opposing screens, allowing the most receiving YPG (42.5) and the 3rd-most YAC/R (11.5) on such plays. JAHMYR GIBBS is commanding 59% of the Lions’ backfield XFP, so he’s looking good. The Bengals give up the eighth-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.12), the second-most rushing YPG (123.5), and the eighth-most receiving YPG (46.5) to RBs, DAVID MONTGOMERY played only 36% of the snaps, 31% of the carries, and 26% of the routes, but I think the snaps and carries will be up, since he’s a game-sensitive guy. He should get some volume with the Lions being 10.5-point road favorites.

• The Bengals are allowing the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (+4.6), and they’re an underneath funnel, having allowed the most receiving YPG on throws traveling 10 or fewer yards downfield (171.8) but the 3rd-fewest on the deep ball (13.3), and this all obviously favors SAM LAPORTA. They use Cover 3 (33.3%) and Cover 6 (20.6%) at a 53.9% clip, and he averages a strong 1.98 YPRR and .17 TPRR on 47 routes against those coverages, and Cincy allows the fourth-most receptions per game (6.8) and the ninth-most receiving YPG (61.0) to TEs. LaPorta is very due for a big game, as T.J. Hockenson was two weeks ago heading into this matchup (5/49/1 receiving), Vegas seems to think the Bengals will put up a small fight in this one.

• The Bengals are an underneath funnel, having allowed the most receiving YPG on throws traveling 10 or fewer yards downfield (171.8) but the 3rd-fewest on the deep ball (13.3), which is a good look for AMON-RA ST. BROWN. The Bengals use Cover 3 (33.3%) and Cover 6 (20.6%) at a 53.9% clip, and he averages 2.57 YPRR against those coverages. Cincy also gives up the most receiving YPG (94.8) and the fifth-most receptions (32) to receivers aligned in the slot, so he’s looking good. He’s got 7+ receptions and 70+ yards in three straight, and he’s winning out there, ranking eighth in A.S.S. (.179) among WRs who’ve run 75+ routes.

• The Bengals have allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs (+7.5) and have been the NFL’s 3rd-most extreme pass funnel this season (+4.9% PROE allowed), so JARED GOFF is looking good with good schematic matchups for Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta. The Bengals are 27th in pressure rate (32.1%), a huge factor for Goff, and Cincy gives up the third-most passing YPG (272.3) and the fifth-most passing TDs per game (2.0) to QBs after Bo Nix got out of his funk with 326/2 passing and a rushing TD in this matchup last week.

• The Lions deploy the fourth-highest rate of man coverage (41.0%), and TEE HIGGINS averages an excellent 2.81 YPRR against man. He’s better against two-high, which they usually only use 35% of the time. But with Ja’Marr Chase on the field and no threat of a Bengal running game, they’ll probably play a lot more two-high, which is another plus for Higgins. He will see a lot of CB Amik Robertson, who gives up a stingy 0.15 FP/RR, but they give up the eighth-most receiving YPG (122.8) and the fifth-most YPT (10.23) to outside receivers. I do think he can get to 60 yards, at least.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• The Lions give up the seventh-fewest rushing YPG (72.8), but CHASE BROWN may actually have an inch to move, since they also give up the 13th-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.01). Of course, they also give up the 13th-fewest receiving YPG (27.3) to RBs, and there’s been no signs of life from the offense and especially with Chase and the rushing offense. Sadly, it’s now a small win if he gets 10+ FP in a game.

THE REST:

• JAMESON WILLIAMS is going to explode soon, and this week could certainly be the week, since the Bengals give up 272 passing yards per game and the fifth-most passing TDs per game (2.0). Cincy uses Cover 3 (33.3%) and Cover 6 (20.6%) at a 53.9% clip, and he averages a solid 1.71 YPRR, but he has a 20.9-yard aDOT on his 20 targets, and the Bengals have allowed just two completions for just 53 yards (30th) on 8 attempts of 20+ air yards. He’s a little more volatile this week, I’d say.

• The Lions have used single-high on 64.0% of opposing dropbacks (2nd-most), and JA’MARR CHASE sees a +19% boost to his TPRR against those looks compared to against two-high this season. However, with no threat from the Bengals running game, they may play a lot more two-high. They also use the fourth-highest rate of man coverage (41.0%), and Chase averages a terrible .50 YPRR against man. On the bright side, Detroit allows the sixth-most YPRR (2.44) and the 15th-most receptions (30) to outside receivers, and stud CB D.J. Reed is out (hamstring, IR).

• We do show this as a positive schematic matchup for JAKE BROWNING, likely because he averages a solid .48 FP/DB against man. He is getting sacked at the sixth-highest rate (48.3%) over the last two weeks, and the Lions lead the league in sack rate at 10.1%, but the Lions give up TDs passes (1.8, eight-most). FWIW, my gut says he plays better here, but that may still only mean 200/2 passing.

Looking BETTER than usual: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tee Higgins

Looking WORSE than usual: None of note.

Reach plays: Jake Browning

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• COMMANDERS: WRs Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown are out again, but Jayden Daniels returns.
• CHARGERS: They are down LT Joe Alt, a huge loss. TE Will Dissly is back.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• LA gives up the sixth-fewest passing YPG (177.5) with no QB throwing for multiple TDs against them, but they have given up the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs on the ground (+4.2), allowing 57 rushing yards and a TD to Patrick Mahomes, a season-high rushing yardage total to Bo Nix, and 54 yards and a TD to Jaxson Dart last week. JAYDEN DANIELS will reportedly play with no limitations, and I can’t really imagine a world where that’s the case, Justin Herbert is on the other side, and Daniels doesn’t produce. The Chargers have allowed a positive PROE in every game but one this year.

• The Chargers use Cover 4 at the NFL’s 2nd-highest rate (24.2%), and DEEBO SAMUEL sees a +32% boost to his TPRR against the coverage so far this season. Deebo is a guy you always like against zone, and LA runs zone 78% of the time, 7th most. Deebo’s run 74% of his routes from the slot, and LA allows the seventh-most receiving YPG (79.8) and the sixth-most YPRR (1.96) to slot receivers. He will be outside a lot more with Terry McLaurin out, and LA has been significantly tougher against outside WRs (-11.9 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed, 3rd-fewest) compared to against the slot (-1.7) or opposing TEs (-0.3). But at the end of the day, Jayden Daniels is back and Deebo is the #1, so he should be active and productive.

• The Chargers allow the seventh-fewest receiving YPG (34.0) and the eighth-fewest receptions per game (3.8) to TEs, but low-end guys Theo Johnson and Travis Kelce have scored against them recently, and ZACH ERTZ sees a +42% increase to his TPRR against Cover 4, which LA has run at the NFL’s 2nd-highest rate (24.2%). DC should have to pass a bunch, since LA has allowed a positive PROE in every game but one.

• The Commanders have allowed the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs through the air (+5.5), which bodes well for JUSTIN HERBERT. The Chargers still lead the league in pass rate over expectation (10.1%), and DC is struggling to stop the pass and have given up 289+ yards and 2+ TDs in three straight games (Michael Penix, Geno Smith, and Jordan Love). He won’t have LT Joe Alt, but DC also plays man coverage at a 30% clip, which opens up rushing possibilities for Herbert.

• The Commanders deploy Cover 1 (27%) and Cover 3 (28.4%) at a 55.4% clip, and LADD MCCONKEY averages a terrible .98 YPRR against those coverages, but in 2024, he was a man beater and crushed Cover 1. DC gives up the most YPRR (2.23) and the fourth-most receiving YPG (84.3) to receivers aligned in the slot, and DC’s Mike Sainristil is struggling this year, giving up 0.35 FP/RR. I’m feeling a Ladd day.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• The Commanders use Cover 1 (27%) and Cover 3 (28.4%) at a 55.4% clip, and QUENTIN JOHNSTON averages a strong 2.46 YPRR and .25 TPRR on 93 routes against those coverages. A comparable player in Drake London roasted the Commanders for 8/110/1 receiving last week, as well. However, Johnston isn’t particularly great against the other shells he’ll see roughly 45% of the time, and based on alignment numbers, he should see a lot of CB Marshon Lattimore, who has been seriously trending toward a return to form and currently give up just 0.19 FP/RR, which is just behind the elite Pat Surtain. It’s also a good week for a Ladd McConkey breakout.

• The Chargers give up the sixth-fewest rushing YPG (68.5), and the sixth-fewest receiving YPG (17.8) to RBs, so use JACORY CROSKEY-MERRITT or CHRIS RODRIGUEZ at your own risk, since JEREMY MCNICHOLS is also in the mix. FWIW, Bill has been stuffed at the lowest rate (27.6%) and ranks behind only Travis Etienne in YPC (5.93) among 43 RBs with 25+ carries.

THE REST:

• The Commanders are a top-3 run funnel by PROE allowed (-3.5%), which is nice for OMARION HAMPTON. But DC gives up the sixth-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.85), and the 14th-fewest rushing YPG (81.0). In addition, 63% of Hampton’s rush attempts are on man/gap concepts, and DC’s allowing the 4th-fewest YPC (2.53) and the 3rd-lowest success rate (31.3%) to opposing man/gap runs. However, they give up the 13th-most receiving YPG (40.0) to RBs, and Bijan Robinson roasted them for 4/106 receiving last week, so he’s hardly hopeless.

• DC uses Cover 1 (27%) and Cover 3 (28.4%) at a 55.4% clip, and KEENAN ALLEN had averaged a solid 1.66 YPRR against those coverages. He will, however, see a lot of CB Trey Amos, who’s given up a measly 0.14, so he’s not exactly looking great here.

Looking BETTER than usual: Jayden Daniels, Deebo Samuel, Zach Ertz, Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey,

Looking WORSE than usual: Quentin Johnston

Reach plays: None of note

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, 8:20 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• PATRIOTS: LB K'Lavon Chaisson didn’t practice Friday and is questionable.
• BILLS: LT Spencer Brown (calf), LB Matt Milano (Pectoral), and DT Ed Oliver (ankle) were all limited all week, but trending toward playing.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• It looks like they will get LB Matt Milano (Pectoral) and DT Ed Oliver back this week, but Buffalo gives up the most adjusted YBC/ATT (3.11) and the eighth-most rushing YPG (108.8), and we know the Pats will look to run it with TREVEYON HENDERSON, RHAMONDRE STEVENSON, and ANTONIO GIBSON. The Bills have been run on majorly this year, so you can’t rule out an impactful game from Henderson or Stephenson. Saints RBs Kendre Miller (11/65/1 rushing) and Alvin Kamara (15/70 rushing and 4/2 receiving) looked like world-beaters against this defense last week.

• The Bills give up the fewest receiving YPG (16.8) and the second-fewest receptions per game (2.3) to TEs, but they haven’t faced many great TEs, and HUNTER HENRY has always been a major zone-beater, and the Bills are all zone. He got 4/39/1 receiving in his only matchup against Buffalo last year, and the Pats will be throwing plenty, so he should be solid, and he could be top-7 this week.

• The Pats give up the seventh-most passing YPG (63.0) and the ninth-most receptions per game (5.8) to TEs, so DALTON KINCAID has more potential than usual in this matchup. His route participation and volume continue to be an issue, but he’s maximising his chance with a TD in three of his first four games.

• The Patriots give up the seventh-most passing YPG (256.0) and the eighth-most passing TDs per game (1.8) to QBs, and they have allowed 2 TD passes in three straight games and 315+ yards twice to open the season, so JOSH ALLEN should be okay here. The Pats play man coverage at a top-10 rate, so his rushing opportunities should be up this week.

THINGS TO FEAR: None of note.

THE REST:

• Buffalo gives up the fewest passing YPG (141.0) to QBs, and they rank second in pressure rate (47.2%), and DRAKE MAYE’S YPA (8.26>7.42) and passer rating (122.4>63.3) fall from a clean pocket compared to when he’s pressured, so it’s not the greatest spot. But I think he’ll run here, and Buffalo have given up rushing yards to QBs this year. Bottom line here is, he’s a poor man’s Josh Allen up against Josh Allen in a game with the second-highest total on the board, so Maye should find his way to QB1 status this week.

• STEFON DIGGS looked fantastic last week, and he had a Week 4 best 39% target share with a season-high 77% of the routes, but the Bills allow the fourth-fewest receiving YPG (42.3) and the fourth-fewest receptions (18) to receivers aligned in the slot, as CB Taron Johnson has been quite solid. But Diggs is trending up, and this will be high-scoring,

• The Patriots allow the second-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.10), the fourth-fewest rushing YPG (65.3), and they’re particularly good against the zone runs JAMES COOK crushes on this year. However, they give up the ninth-most receiving YPG (43.5) to RBs, and Cook has been consistently involved in the passing game this year, so he’s nearly impossible to contain. Hopefully, TY JOHNSON doesn’t break out in the passing game this week.

• New England gives up the 14th-most receiving YPG (67.5) and the third-most YPRR (2.16) to slot receivers, but KHALIL SHAKIR got just 2/22 receiving in his lone full game against the Patriots last season. They’ve usually played a lot of man coverage, and play it at a top-10 rate this year, and Shakir is much less productive against man, so I’d expect a middling game.

• The Patriots give up the 10th-most receiving YPG (117.8) and the 15th-fewest receptions (29) to receivers aligned out wide, and Tetairoa McMillan got 4/62 receiving in Christian Gonzalez’s first game of the season last week, so I’m not about to back KEON COLEMAN or JOSH PALMER, even though I think one of them will be impactful this week.

Looking BETTER than usual: Hunter Henry, Patriots RBs, Dalton Kincaid

Looking WORSE than usual: None of note.

Reach plays: None of note.

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars, 8:15 p.m., Mon.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• CHIEFS: Starting DT Omarr Norman-Lott (shoulder) did not practice late in the week and is questionable still.
• JAGUARS: Dyami Brown (shoulder) was removed from the injury report and will play.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• His deep ball hasn’t been great, but PATRICK MAHOMES is coming off his first 4+ TD passing performance since Week 7 of 2023, and it was no coincidence that the passing game got back on track with Xavier Worthy back. The Chiefs rank third in the league in pass rate over expectation (8.6%), and he is coming off a 4+ TD performance, so you’re certainly not worried about him with Jacksonville giving up the ninth-most passing YPG (246.0). They do lead the league in INTs per game (2.3), but they can be had, as Brock Purdy got them for 309/2 passing last week.

• The Jaguars allow the fifth-most receiving YPG (135.8) and the 15th-most YPT (8.35) to outside receivers, and XAVIER WORTHY has run 69% of his routes from the perimeter, and you’re not shying away from him after he returned last week and kicked ass.

• The Jaguars deploy Cover 3 (30.4%) and Cover 6 (24%) at a 54.4% clip, and HOLLYWOOD BROWN averages an excellent 2.81 YPRR against those coverages, so this could be more of a Hollywood game than TYQUAN THORNTON, who averages a so-so 1.44 YPRR against those coverages. The Jaguars give up seventh-most receptions per game (13.3) to WRs. Hollywood is set to see a lot of Travis Hunter, if he even plays corner, who has been shaky.

• KC uses the second-highest rate of two-high safeties (68.1%), and TRAVIS HUNTER averages a solid 1.74 YPRR on routes against the shell. KC also allows the receptions (27) to receivers aligned in the slot, so he’s likely catching 4-6 balls in this one.

• The Chiefs use the second-highest rate of two-high safeties (68.1%), and BRENTON STRANGE averages a decent 1.40 YPRR and .23 TPRR on 40 routes against the shell. Kansas City gives up the sixth-fewest receptions per game (3.8) and the sixth-fewest receiving YPG (33.0) to TEs, but Mark Andrews accumulated 7/30 receiving against the Chiefs last week, and Strange should get volume here, given the tough matchup for the WRs on the outside.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• The Chiefs use the second-highest rate of two-high safeties (68.1%), and BRIAN THOMAS averages a solid 1.90 YPRR against the coverage. But KC gives up the fifth-fewest receiving YPG (71.0) and the 13th-fewest receptions (28) to outside receivers, and he’ll see a lot of stud corner Trent McDuffie, so I’m leaning negative here, as KC has held lead receivers Zay Flowers (7/74 receiving), Malik Nabers (2/13), and A.J. Brown (5/27) in their last three.

• The Chiefs rank third in pressure rate (46.5%), and TREVOR LAWRENCE has had by far the highest rate of clean pockets at 82.9, which is scary because he’s not playing well. KC’s secondary is balling right now, and the Chiefs allow the seventh-fewest passing YPG (194.5) and the sixth-fewest passing TDs per game (1.0) to QBs, so it’s a tough spot for him. He’s averaging just 8 rushing YPG through four weeks after averaging 18.1 rushing YPG in his first four seasons, so for one he’ll run more this week at least.

THE REST:

• The Jaguars use Cover 3 (30.4%) and Cover 6 (24%) at a 54.4% clip, and TRAVIS KELCE averages a so-so 1.46 YPRR against those coverages. The Jaguars give up the 12th-most receiving YPG (49.8) and the 14th-most receptions per game (5.0) to TEs, and Jake Tonges got 3/58/1 receiving on 5 targets in this matchup last week, so it’s hard to say it’s a bad spot.

• The Jags give up the 16th-most adjusted YBC/ATT (1.81), the third-fewest rushing YPG (63.8), and the sixth-most receiving YPG (47.3) to RBs, so nothing stands out for ISIAH PACHECO with KAREEM HUNT still in the mix and rookie BRASHARD SMITH notably played 18 snaps last week.

• KC’s been run on this year, giving up the third-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.58), the 14th-most rushing (94.5), and the 14th-most receiving YPG (37.3) to RBs, and and TRAVIS ETIENNE is coming off a great showing in a tougher matchup against the 49ers. They just got hit by Justice Hill for 3/76/1 rushing and 5/41/1 receiving, and rookie BHAYSHUL TUTEN isn’t 100%, so ETN should be solid with volume.

Looking BETTER than usual: Travis Hunter, Brenton Strange, Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy

Looking WORSE than usual: Brian Thomas

Reach plays: Hollywood Brown