The playoffs are here and we have a white hot slate on tap. The extra week of the regular season didn’t disappoint and ended up producing six excellent Wild Card games.
Here’s your Stat-Pack for the Wild Card round:
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals lost four of their last 5 games during the regular season and their point differential in those contests was -7.2 on average.
The loss of DeAndre Hopkins (knee) has been absolutely devastating for the passing attack…
Murray’s target distribution without Hopkins: Ertz (28%), Kirk (20%), Green (16%), Wesley (12%).
James Conner is averaging 22.7 FPG in six starts without Chase Edmonds.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are rolling into the playoffs and have won four-straight by double-digit margins.
As of Wednesday morning, the Bills are getting the most money of any team this weekend by far. 75% of the money is on the Bills (according to Action Network) and DK Sportsbook has 65% of the money on the Bills so far (also highest).
Josh Allen has been a bit up and down as a passer as of late, but he’s running way more and that is obviously huge for fantasy. Allen has 60+ yards on the ground in four of his last 5 starts.
After clearing 100 yards 7 times last year, Stefon Diggs had 100+ yards just twice this season.
Diggs made up for the dip in yardage with TDs and he’s scored three times in his last four games.
Diggs led all players in end-zone targets (17) this season.
The Bills have just made Devin Singletary their featured back over the last month. He’s played on a bell cow 79.3% of the snaps and is averaging 21 touches per game in their last four games.
Singletary has massive TD upside in this new role, too. Over the last four weeks, Singletary has 13 carries inside-the-10 (red-zone) while Allen has just 4.
Cincinnati Bengals
Over the last eight weeks, the Bengals are fifth in scoring possessions (48.2%) just behind the Patriots (48.6%).
Joe Burrow is averaging a ridiculous 27.0 FPG over the last five weeks – which makes him the QB1 in this span over Josh Allen (25.9), Patrick Mahomes (23.1), and Aaron Rodgers (21.6).
I really hope HC Zac Taylor stays aggressive and lets Joe Burrow just carve everyone up in the playoffs. Taylor called a pass on 60% (fourth-highest) of their early-down plays in their last four games, which was way up from their previous four contests (45%; sixth-lowest).
Joe Mixon probably desperately needed the week off he just got because his efficiency was falling off a cliff to close out the year. Mixon was held under 3.8 YPC in each of his final 5 games.
However, this is wild…
Mixon averaged a massive 26.3 fantasy points per game in the seven contests where he got at least 4 targets.
In the nine games where Mixon got 2 or fewer targets, he averaged just 11.8 FPG.
Just for reference, Mixon was basically fantasy’s RB1 by a wide margin when he was involved as a receiver. Derrick Henry was the RB1 in FPG (23.4).
Mixon’s 11.8 FPG in the games where he got 2 or fewer targets would have made him the RB29. Damn.
Dallas Cowboys
After a midseason lull, Dak Prescott shredded Washington and the Eagles backups in two of his last 3 games but he struggled against the Cardinals (6.0 YPA).
I really can’t put my finger on what has caused Dak to be so up and down beyond the fact that he’s just been erratic with his accuracy and decision-making at times.
This is the key for the Cowboys playoff run…
Dak’s percentage of passes that have been deemed on-target via SIS over the last five weeks: 60.5% (vs. WAS) > 83.8% (vs. NYG) > 84.2% (vs. WAS) > 74.2% (vs. ARI) > 92% (vs. PHI). A total mixed bag.
Kansas City Chiefs
Over the last eight weeks, no team has generated a score (FG or TD) more often than the Chiefs (52.9% of their possessions).
The Chiefs have just 5 turnovers in their last eight games (second-fewest).
Patrick Mahomes has eliminated almost all of the mistakes he kept making mid-season and has been unconscious as of late despite Tyreek Hill not being healthy.
Over the last five weeks, Mahomes has completed 70.6% of his throws for 8.1 YPA, he’s averaging 291 yards per game, he has a 12:1 TD-to-INT ratio and a 114.5 passer rating.
Mahomes shredded this Steelers defense back in Week 16 for 258 yards and 3 TDs on just 30 attempts in a game that Travis Kelce didn’t play and Tyreek Hill only got 2 targets.
Unlike last year, Clyde Edwards-Helaire actually has decent TD equity now. He’s scored 6 TDs across his last 8 games.
Before he hurt his shoulder in Week 16, CEH played on 72% of the Chiefs snaps in Week 15 against the Chargers – tying a season-high.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders have been in a ton of tight ball games this year and a lot of those contests have come down to their red-zone offense / defense.
Vegas has scored a TD on just 53.4% of their red-zone possessions this season, seventh-worst.
Meanwhile, their defense has been awful in the red-zone and have surrendered a TD on a league-high 80% of their opponents possessions. This is so bad that it’s a full 10% higher than the second-worst red-zone defense (69%, Eagles).
Derek Carr and Darren Waller’s connection was rusty last week in Waller’s return as the duo connected on 2-of-9 targets for 22 yards.
Waller immediately played a full-time role and ran a route on 41-of-45 pass plays last week.
The Bengals struggled against TEs all year long and allowed the most receptions (8.2) and second-most yards (95.4) per game to the position over the last five weeks of the regular season.
Los Angeles Rams
Four of the Rams last 5 games have been decided by one score.
Rams average point differential in their first eight games: +9.62.
Rams point differential in their last nine games: +1.22.
A lot of the Rams recent struggles has been due in part to up-and-down play from Matthew Stafford…
Over his last nine games, Stafford has completed 65.9% of his passes for 7.3 YPA, he’s averaged 267.7 yards per game, has a 19:13 TD-to-INT ratio and a mediocre 90.4 passer rating.
In his first eight games in LA, Stafford completed 68.9% of his throws for 9.1 YPA, he averaged 309.6 yards per game, had a 22:4 TD-to-INT ratio and a stellar 118.0 passer rating.
What has contributed to Stafford’s struggles? Well, one key bit is that opposing defenses just aren’t blitzing him. They’re dropping seven in coverage and forcing Stafford to either throw into tight windows or beat them with scheme (getting Cooper Kupp open)…
Over his final nine games, Stafford was blitzed just 17.1% of the time per PFF – a league-low. Patrick Mahomes (17.2%) is right ahead of him in this span for what it’s worth.
Stafford was excellent at diagnosing and beating blitzes this season as he averaged 0.82 fantasy points per pass attempt when blitzed – best in the league.
Sony Michel has 18 or more carries in six-straight games and he’s starting to get a little more usage in the passing game, too. Over his last three games, Michel has 4 > 5 > 4 targets and he’s run at least 28 routes in each contest.
Cooper Kupp shredded everyone this year, but he went nuclear for a 13/123/1 line against Arizona back in Week 14. The Cardinals secondary has only gotten worse since then.
Over the last five weeks of the regular season, Arizona got tattooed for the third-most receptions (77), fifth-most yards (927), and a league-high in TDs (13) by opposing wide receivers.
Odell Beckham has out-targeted Van Jefferson 48 to 43 since joining the Rams.
New England Patriots
The Patriots are sliding into the playoffs and have dropped three of their last 4 games by -10, -12, and -9 point margins.
For as good as he’s been this season – especially relative to the other rookie QBs – the Patriots offense has been exposed a bit as of late as Mac Jones has failed to bring them back from behind in all three of their losses.
New England needs to play with leverage to win and not get down early. How will they do that against Buffalo? Running the ball of course.
Damien Harris has been excellent to close out the season and I’ll be all-in on him again in 2022 drafts if people keep thinking Rhamondre Stevenson is better than him. Over his last 11 games, Dame has scored 14 TDs and averaged 5.0 YPC.
Harris has generated a first down on 29.4% of his carries this season. Only Jonathan Taylor (31.8%) is better.
Mac Jones’ target distribution last week with all of his weapons back: Meyers (27%), Henry (20%), Harris (13%), Bourne (13%), Agholor (10%).
Philadelphia Eagles
I’m not sure enough people realize how good this Eagles offense has been as of late…
Over their last eight games, the Eagles have scored on 47.6% of their possessions – sixth-best. Only the Chiefs, Patriots, Packers, Chargers, and Bengals rank higher.
The Eagles’ 3:13 time of possession per drive ranks second-best in this span. Only the Packers (3:18) rank higher.
Philadelphia is 55.6% run-heavy over their last eight games, which is by far the highest rate in the league.
It’ll be interesting to see if the Eagles can maintain such a run-first attack against this Bucs’ defense that has slipped as of late. They’ve fallen to 12th in FootballOutsiders’ run defense DVOA metrics.
Jalen Hurts is only the sixth QB since the merger to score 10+ rushing TDs in a single-season.
Hurts scored 23 FP against these Bucs’ back in Week 6 and that was before the Eagles installed their run-heavy attack.
Hurts has 7 or more carries in 14-of-15 starts this season.
Over their last three games, Dallas Goedert (20) and Devonta Smith (18) lead the team in targets while no other pass catcher has more than 9 looks.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are, by far, the worst playoff team this year. Their -55 point differential is second-worst of the playoff teams (Raiders -65) but Vegas has scored 31 more points than Pittsburgh.
Just two of the Steelers’ 9 wins this year came against playoff teams, both of which were one-score games – Week 1 vs. Bills (23-16) and Week 15 vs. Titans (19-13).
Ben Roethlisberger has completed just 62% of his throws for a completely dusty 4.5 YPA (!!) over the last month.
Diontae Johnson’s ceiling has been completely nuked by Big Ben’s noodle arm. He’s averaged just 42.8 yards per game over the last month despite seeing his usual 9.8 targets per game.
Ray-Ray McCloud has 30 targets over the last four weeks. Chase Claypool has 24.
Najee Harris played on a season-low 53% of the snaps last week while dealing with a painful elbow injury. There is no guarantee he’s back to full health against the Chiefs.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers red-zone offense was incredible this season. They scored a TD on a league-high 70% of their RZ possessions.
Deebo Samuel over his last five games: 21/399/1 receiving (29 targets) and 34/162/3 rushing. Just insane.
After running hotter than the sun in Weeks 13-15 with 28/425/3, George Kittle has been an afterthought in this 49ers offense as of late and has just 8/60 across his last three games.
Meanwhile, Brandon Aiyuk is really coming on as of late and has 14, 13.7, and 16.7 FP in his last three games.
Aiyuk has four or more catches in 4 of his last 5 games after having 4+ receptions just four times in his previous 11.
Elijah Mitchell has 21 or more carries in five-straight starts, but his up-and-down usage in the passing game along with Deebo scoring so many TDs in the red-zone gives him a very low floor for his usage.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs’ scored a TD on 69% of their red-zone possessions, second-best.
The Eagles defense allowed a TD on 69% of their opponents red-zone possessions, second-worst.
Just as a reminder: This will be Tom Brady’s 46th career playoff game. The next closest QB? Peyton Manning… with 27 playoff starts.
Brady has 83 career playoff TDs. Second-best? Aaron Rodgers and Joe Montana with 45 apiece.
I think Leonard Fournette is the stone cold nuts for any playoff fantasy contests. After the Bucs’ bye in Week 9, HC Bruce Arians just used Fournette as his bell-cow and scrapped Ronald Jones from the offense. RoJo (ankle) is now out.
From Week 10-15 (six games), Fournette caught 6.5 balls for 35.8 yards per game and added 62.2 YPG and 4 TDs on the ground.
In this span, Fournette was the fourth-highest scoring player in fantasy with 22.3 FPG. Only Kupp (25.5), Taylor (23.6), and Ekeler (22.9) were better.
Fournette, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski are going to take on massive roles with Godwin injured and AB gone. In their last two games together, Gronk (20) led the way in targets with Evans (14) and Tyler Johnson (13) behind him.
