Here’s my very quick look at the week.
If you want more information and analysis, you can always read our Week 16 Game Hubs.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12) at New York Jets (3-11)
Players I like more than usual: James Robinson
Players I’m neutral on: Trevor Lawrence, Marvin Jones
Players I like less than usual: Zach Wilson
Longshot Plays: Laquon Treadwell, James O'Shaughnessy (if Arnold is out), Braxton Berrios
Notes: Carlos Hyde is on IR, so it’s all James Robinson, who practiced fully on Friday. The Jets last week helped Duke Johnson go for 23/127/2 scrimmage against them in Week 15 despite handling only four touches on the season before last week. Over the last four weeks, RBs are getting 31/133/1 rushing and 4.5/40 receiving, good for 28.1 FPG. Trevor Lawrence’s struggles continued last week, but this is as good of a matchup as he’ll get, at least. Laquon Treadwell has led the Jaguars’ WRs in receiving in four straight games with 4 catches for 50+ yards in those games, so he’s a worthy play on the low end with Laviska Shenault out. Marvin Jones just can’t be used unless very desperate, but the matchup is good. I like James O'Shaughnessy ONLY if starter Dan Arnold is set to miss this week’s game. If Arnold is active, you can’t use O'Shaughnessy, but this is THE matchup in the league right now for a TE, and no Shenault helps.
You really don’t want to have to use any of the Jets RBs, since Michael Carter is crushed by Zach Wilson in the passing game, and Tevin Coleman is in the mix with 8/50 rushing on a 37% snap share last week. Carter managed 8/18 rushing and 1/2 receiving on two targets and a 54% share. There’s also Ty Johnson potentially in the mix, if active today. The matchup is solid, at least. Jamison Crowder is doubtful, so the only Jets receiver to consider is Braxton Berrios, who apparently won’t be denied. This guy has earned snaps over some good players all year and he’s produced in those snaps, so he’s not a bad longshot play in the slot as the Jags have given up the eight-most slot receptions and yards the last eight weeks. I will say, though, it’s a Keelan Cole revenge game!
Detroit Lions (2-11-1) at Atlanta Falcons (6-8)
Players I like more than usual: Kyle Pitts, Russell Gage
Players I’m neutral on: None
Players I like less than usual: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds
Longshot Plays: Matt Ryan, Olamide Zaccheaus, Craig Reynolds (if Swift inactive)
Notes: With Jared Goff expected to miss the game, it’s a game changer for WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds, who combined for 4/17 on 7 targets with Tim Boyle starting in Week 11. Granted, those two weren’t doing much before that game and they are hot now, but I’m sitting Reynolds in my top league (14-teamer) and I’m viewing 10 FP as a win for Amon-Ra. If very desperate, the Falcons are giving up the second-most FPG (21.4) to QBs this season, at least, and we don’t think Reynolds or Amon-Ra will see a lot of stud CB AJ Terrell. The backfield is a mess with Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift back in the mix. Williams should definitely play, but his role is unknown. Swift worked the last two days, presumably on track to play. But I don’t see them giving him like 20 touches. Craig Reynolds is standing by and worth using if Swift ends up being inactive.
I think Matt Ryan will have a decent game here, as the Lions, while respectable on defense, are very beatable. They are also down a starting corner in Amani Oruwariye, so Russell Gage is looking good yet again. Tajae Sharpe is doubtful, so Olamide Zaccheaus may aatch 4-5 balls, if desperate. I really like Kyle Pitts, as well. The numbers look good for Pitts this week as the Lions are facing the most TE targets and receptions per game and the second-most yardage per game with the fourth-most FPG. The Lions have given up 11+ FP to an individual TE in six straight games with Zach Ertz (6/74 receiving on 11 targets) getting them last week. Cordarrelle Patterson had his worst game of the season last week, but you’re keeping him in your lineup. He saw a four-week high with 62% of the snaps and he also ran the most routes (23) since Week 7. The Lions are giving up the fourth-most FPG (28.3) to RBs this season, so it’s a solid spot for Cordarrelle and Mike Davis.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-4) at Carolina Panthers (5-9)
Players I like more than usual: Antonio Brown, Ronald Jones, Rob Gronkowski
Players I’m neutral on: Tom Brady, Robby Anderson
Players I like less than usual: DJ Moore, Chubba Hubbard, Cam Newton
Longshot Plays: Ameer Abdullah
Notes: Tom Brady is a little sketchy right now, and I’m concerned about him in this matchup against a pretty good defense with a good pass rush. I do love Antonio Brown for fantasy, at least, and I’m not that concerned by the presence of CB Stefon Gimore, who may shadow him at times. AB had 7+ catches in his last three games, and he’s going to see 10+ targets if he can handle it with limited snaps. Rob Gronkowski will have to step up, but he had a miserable showing last week and the Panthers are giving up the 11th-fewest FPG (11.5) to the position this season and have been good against the position all year. The good news is he could get 10+ targets, and with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out, he should rule the red zone. Otherwise, it’s Tyler Johnson, Breshad Perriman, Scotty Miller, and possibly WR Justin Watson, none of whom are reliable. That’s why it’s a great spot for Ronald Jones, who should be fresh after handing only 78 touches in 14 games. Jones will get every opportunity to collect 20+ carries, and RoJo is averaging an excellent 4.7 YPC in limited work (71/337/3 receiving) this season. The Panthers gave up 22/86/1 rushing to Devin Singletary last week, and they’re giving up a fairly generous 100.2 rushing yards per game (10th-most) and 4.2 YPC to RBs this season. Over the last four weeks, they are also facing 30 (!) RB carries per game. Ke’Shawn Vaughn will also factor in this week after he played 26% of the snaps last week, most of it late.
The Panthers are tough to trust with Cam Newton leading them, but at least the Bucs will be down some key defensive players like DE Jason Pierre-Paul, LB Lavonte David, S Mike Edwards, and S Antoine Winfield Jr. Cam has now lost 12 straight games as Carolina’s starting QB and could be pulled at any minute if he stinks. And pulled for Sam Darnold, who they are on the hook for a lot of money next year. D.J. Moore is risky given the QB situation, and he’s even riskier with his hamstring, which prevented him from practicing all week other than a limited light practice Friday. At the very least, check to make sure he’s active as a GTD. Robby Anderson may get more looks this week given Moore’s status, and Robby did have eight targets and 21% share and 33 rushing yards last week. Chuba Hubbard is pretty hopeless with a bad matchup and with Ameer Abdullah leading the backfield for a second straight week with 53% snap share. The game is setting up much better for Abdullah and the Bucs are giving up the second-most catches per game (7.2) to RBs.
Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)
Players I like more than usual: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Players I’m neutral on: Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd
Players I like less than usual: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman
Longshot Plays: Josh Johnson, CJ Uzomah
Notes: The Ravens are a mess, but QB Josh Johnson has been around the block and he dropped 318/3 passing and 4/18 rushing off the bench as a Jet back in Week Nine. He’s been here less than two weeks, but Johnson will run, and he will lean on Mark Andrews. If he’s going to look for one receiver, like Tyler Huntley did in his first start, it’ll be MANDREWS. I think the Ravens will be playing from behind and chasing points, and the Ravens got good news with outstanding DT DJ Reader being ruled out for the Bengals. Johnson at QB isn’t the best news for Marquise Brown, who put up 10/43 receiving on 14 targets with Huntley last week. Perhaps Johnson can get Brown the ball in the short passing game like Huntley did, and opponents will continue to concede underneath targets to Hollywood, but Brown’s only a WR3 this week. Rashod Bateman had just a five-yard catch on two targets last week, so he’s tough to trust, but no Sammy Watkins (COVID) helps and Devin Duvernay is doubtful. Devonta Freeman lost juice and clout in this backfield last week only 24 yards and Latavius Murray looked decent, posting 8/51 scrimmage. Both are desperation plays only, but the Reader injury is big and helps their chances.
I’m all in on the Bengals passing game this week. Joe Burrow put up 416/3 passing in this matchup earlier in the season, and that was before the Ravens secondary got totally decimated due to injuries. He’s averaging a league-high 11.0 YPA against the blitz, so the Ravens may pull back on that. If so, Burrow can pick apart their backup CBs. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are looking good, and Chase exploded for 8/201/1 against the Ravens earlier this season, and that was WITH stud CB Marlon Humphrey on the field (he’s on IR). Higgins was active with 7/62 receiving on 15 targets in this matchup back in late October. Tyler Boyd’s matchup is actually the toughest here, so these two should eat. The Ravens have been shaky against TEs all year and give up the ninth-most FP per target and yards per target to TEs the last eight weeks, so CJ Uzomah is a solid reach. He also got them for 2 TDs back in October. Joe Mixon practiced all week, so I guess he’s fine with the ankle. Mixon has a bad history in this matchup, but he had a decent 12/59/1 rushing in this matchup back in Week 7. I certainly love the Bengals passing offense in this one, so Mixon could get multiple scoring chances.
Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) at Houston Texans (3-11)
Players I like more than usual: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Justin Jackson
Players I’m neutral on: Nico Collins
Players I like less than usual: Davis Mills
Longshot Plays: Josh Palmer, Jared Cook, Robert Kelley
Notes: This matchup should be as easy as it gets for Justin Herbert against an injury and covid-ravaged Texans roster. They’ll be down CB Lonnie Johnson and also more than half their team, defense included, was on the covid list as of Saturday. Considering the circumstances, you probably also can’t go wrong with Keenan Allen, especially with Mike Wlliams landing on the covid list on Saturday. I also like Josh Palmer with Jaylen Guyton also on the covid list. Palmer and Allen will be the top guys in a great, great matchup against a Texans defense that may have to hire concession stand workers to play on defense. No Donald Parham, so Jared Cook is a decent reach. Justin Jackson never looked better in the pros than he did last week against KC, whom he ripped for 13/86 rushing last week. Austin Ekeler won’t play, so Jackson will lead the way in replacing him with 15+ touches likely. Jackson may be too good to be true, but I doubt it, given the circumstances with the Texans. This Texans’ run defense allowed Rashaad Penny to go off for 16/137/2 rushing in Week 14, and half their defense is on the COVID list this week. With Williams and Guyton on the covid list Saturday, the RBs should be needed this week.
The Texans won’t have Brandon Cooks, who will remain on the Covid list, so it’s time to bail on Davis Mills, despite his solid play. Nico Collins and Chris Conley will pick up the slack with Phillip Dorsett. Oh joy. Rex Burkhead surprisingly played through a hip injury last week, but use him at your own risk. The Texans may not have more than half their roster today, so using Rex is rough and the Chargers have tightened up against the run in recent weeks and limited Clyde Edwards-Helaire to 9/32 rushing and 2/18 receiving last week.
Los Angeles Rams (10-4, 7-7 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (7-7)
Players I like more than usual: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Alexander Mattison
Players I’m neutral on: Sony Michel/Darrell Henderson, Odell Beckham, Kirk Cousins,
Players I like less than usual: Justin Jefferson
Longshot Plays: Van Jefferson, K.J. Osborn (if Thielen is out)
Notes: I have few concerns with Matthew Stafford even though he won’t have LT Andrew Whitworth, which is a problem, but he knows this lame defense well, and the Vikings don’t have anyone who can cover Cooper Kupp, who is a lock to stay hot with the best fantasy WR matchup in the league. Van Jefferson flopped last week with just 2/23 receiving on two targets, but that was still better than Odell Beckham, who had just 1/7 on three targets. The Vikings still give up a generous 13.7 YPR and the most receiving yards per game (190.7) to WRs this season, so it’s a good spot for both to make a big play. Tyler Higbee has been on the COVID list the last two weeks, so he’s a risky play. It’s a tough matchup usually, but the Vikings have given up four TDs to tight ends in their last three games. Higbee will need a TD because he won’t likely get a lot of catches or yards. The Rams backfield is tough to deal with right now, and I’m not even worried about Cam Akers factoring in. Sony Michel does look like the team’s lead runner, but that could change, especially if Darrell Henderson is in better shape a week removed from the covid list. They could use the hot-hand approach. The good news is it’s a good matchup with the Vikings, who are giving up the 13th-most FPG (23.8) to RBs this season.
It’s a tougher matchup, but Alexander Mattison has accounted for 25+ touches and 120+ scrimmage yards in each of his last three starts for Dalvin Cook with 2 TDs in those games. He’s now averaging 24.3 FP in starts without Cook. It’s not the best matchup, but James Conner ripped the Rams for 22/125/2 scrimmage two weeks ago. Justin Jefferson is going to see more of Jalen Ramsey than a JJ fan would like to see. I’m lowering expectations by like 25% with Jefferson this week. Adam Thielen is a GTD and on the safer side if he goes, since he has been cautious with this injury. If he’s active, that should mean he feels good. Kirk Cousins has been at his worst in Weeks 14-15, and the Rams haven’t given up a TD pass in three straight games, and they’re giving up the sixth-fewest FPG (16.8) to QBs. If Thielen’s out, that makes K.J. Osborn more appealing, of course, but it’s not a great matchup. The Rams are giving up the second-fewest receiving TDs per game (.5) to WRs this season.
Buffalo Bills (8-6) at New England Patriots (9-5)
Players I like more than usual: Damien Harris, Emmanuel Sanders, Dawson Knox
Players I’m neutral on: Jakobi Meyers, Devin Singletary, Mac Jones, Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne
Players I like less than usual: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs
Longshot Plays: Isaiah McKenzie
Notes Josh Allen is not playing well right now, but we have no choice but to keep rolling with him in this tough matchup. The Patriots haven’t allowed more than one touchdown pass in a game since Week 8. Allen may need to get it done on the ground this week. Stefon Diggs will see a lot of top corner JC Jackson, and with Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley out, I like Emmanuel Sanders’ prospects to hit 12+ FP. Isaiah McKenzie will step into Beasley’s spot in the lineup and is always a threat for 10+ by making a play. Dawson Knox had a tough game against the Patriots in Week 13, but he’s been good for fantasy since. It’s a bad matchup, but no Beasley and Davis is big for his opportunities. Use Devin Singletary if you need him, but do not assume they have this new running game. The Patriots are weakest defensively against the run, and are giving up the seventh-most rushing yards per game (104.8) and 4.6 YPC to RBs.
I see no compelling reason to back Mac Jones this week with a tougher matchup and with WR
Nelson Agholor out. The Bills are giving up the second-fewest FPG (13.5) to QBs this season. Kendrick Bourne should play and always has a chance with Jones, but he’s also coming off the covid list, so who knows? Jakobi Meyers faces a tough matchup inside, but no Agholor may bump up his looks a tad. Hunter Henry is not a lock, especially in a tougher matchup, but you could do worse. The Bills have given up just three touchdowns to tight ends this season, including just one score since Week 5, and Jonnu Smith is also in the mix. Damien Harris ripped off a 64-yard touchdown run against the Bills in Week 13, and with Rhamondre Stephenson out, he’s a good bet to get 15-20 opportunities if he can handle it. The Patriots ran over the Bills with 46/222/1 rushing in Week 13, and they’ll look to use that same recipe if they can this week. I like him for 80+ total yards and a TD. Brandon Bolden is a threat to get 10+ FP as their receiving back and changeup to Harris.
New York Giants (4-10) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-7)
Players I like more than usual: Jalen Hurts, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders
Players I’m neutral on: Saquon Barkley, Kadarius Toney
Players I like less than usual: Kenny Golladay
Longshot Plays: Jordan Howard, Evan Engram
Notes: My gut feeling is that Jake Fromm can actually play well and get the ball to Kadarius Toney but I’m not starting Toney in my main 14-team league, opting instead for Josh Palmer. My gut’s one thing, but Toney hasn’t done diddly-poo in weeks and weeks and Fromm is a third-string QB. Evan Engram could benefit from no Sterling Shepard and a noodle-armed QB in Fromm. Toney is a so-so desperation play, but at least one with upside. Kenny Golladay is even less than that with Darius Slay lurking out. The Eagles are still giving up the most FPG (18.2) to TEs this season and they give up the second-highest EPA to TEs the last eight weeks, if desperate. Saquon Barkley has 17+ touches in four straight but only TD and he’s being outplayed by backup Devontae Booker. Other than that, things are great. Barkley totaled 13/40 rushing and 4/13 receiving on five targets against the Eagles in Week 12, and may not improve on those lame digits much.
The Eagles may run for 200+ against the Giants again this week, and Jalen Hurts is still dealing with the ankle. He put up 8/77 rushing in this matchup last time. I think he’ll do enough passing with Dallas Goedert rolling to come through. DeVonta Smith has been a non-factor in this offense in his last three games, so he’s; a desperation play only. The Eagles are going to run the ball a ton again, which is good for Miles Sanders, who is not even on the injury report. Sanders has yet to score, which is a problem. But it’s good news for Jordan Howard, who was very involved last week, as they rested Sanders, with 15/69 rushing on a 48% snap share. Hopefully, the Eagles keep rolling with mainly Sanders and Howard and avoid using 3-4 guys.
Chicago Bears (4-10) at Seattle Seahawks (5-9)
Players I like more than usual: Darnell Mooney, David Montgomery, Cole Kmet, Tyler Lockett
Players I’m neutral on: Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Rashad Penny
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: None of note
Notes: Nick Foles hasn’t played all year, but he’s not some rando UFA. The Bears offense sucks, but this former Super Bowl MVP can at least get the ball to Cole Kmet, who played with Foles last year, and Foles should be looking for him often inside the numbers. The Seahawks have given up five TDs to TEs in their last five games, and they are also giving up a healthy 5/68.5/.8 per game to TEs the last four weeks, good for 16.5 FPG. I love Darnell Mooney and think he’s not at fault for his production being 20% less than it has been this year. Foles was bad getting him the rock last year, but he’s a professional QB, so I will not bail on Mooney. In fact, Mooney has run 51% of his routes from the slot since their Week 10 bye, and Seattle has been ripped by slot receivers lately. David Montgomery should be good for 20 touches in this one. He’s seen 15+ touches and he’s seen 70% of the snaps or more in six straight. The Seahawks are giving up the second-most FPG (29.5) and the most catches per game (7.2) to RBs this season, thanks in large part to volume. Montgomery should get that volume in this one.
Russell Wilson has been absolutely brutal lately, and he’s especially bad without Tyler Lockett, who is back. The Bears have one good corner, and he may be spending most of his time on DK Metcalf. Metcalf is capable of going off, but he’s been a bum this year and Lockett’s been way more reliable. He is coming off the covid list, so there is downside as he did have covid. But he was also vaccinated and practiced all week and isn’t on the injury report. Lockett and Wilson are connecting at 70.4% clip over the last four weeks for 22.2 YPR, and the Bears are giving up a generous 13.5 YPR to WRs this season. Gerald Everett stepped up last week, but he’s a shaky reach play with the Bears giving up the sixth-fewest FPG (9.0) to TEs this season. Rashaad Penny looked okay last week, but he was behind DeeJay Dallas in snap share (58% to 42%), routes (19 to 9), and the Bears did a great job against Dalvin Cook last week.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)
Players I like more than usual: Clyde Edwards Helaire
Players I’m neutral on: Tyreek Hill, Najee Harris, Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool
Players I like less than usual: Patrick Mahomes
Longshot Plays: Byron Pringle
Notes: The Steelers can’t run the ball well with Najee Harris right now, Najee isn’t a must-start for some, but he is for most, and the Chiefs are giving up the third-most receiving yards per game (58.0) to the position this season, which helps because Harris isn’t running for much. Ben Roethlisberger has hit 18+ FP in three of his last five, but he flopped last week and is hard to trust. Diontae Johnson has a tougher matchup coming off a bad game, but what can you do? Chase Claypool is hardly a must-start, but he has 80+ yards in three of his last five and I kinda like him this week, especially with Pat Freiermuth out.
Tyreek Hill is off the covid list, so you have to use him. Travis Kelce may or may not be taken off the list, so check that, obiously as this article is usually posted around 10am ET. Rookie Noah Gray and Blake Bell would be the next players up, Gray is the better choice. If they need help from a WR, I’d go Byron Pringle over Demarcus Robinson, Josh Gordon, and Mecole Hardman. I like Clyde Edwards Helaire’s blowup potential against a Steelers defense that has been rocked on the ground. With their top weapons shaky (if even active) due to covid, Edwards-Helaire could take on a bigger role in a run-heavy approach. The Steelers have allowed an individual back to post 15+ FP in six straight games and are giving up 5.3 YPC to RBs the last four weeks (and 31/164/1.3 rushing in that span). Patrick Mahomes will have Tyreek, so he’s hard to sit, but Pittsburgh has allowed just one QB (Justin Herbert) to reach 20+ FP in their last 12 games, and I don’t think he’ll have a particularly good game.
Denver Broncos (7-7) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)
Players I like more than usual: Josh Jacobs
Players I’m neutral on: Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Derek Carr, Foster Moreau
Players I like less than usual: Hunter Renfrow,
Longshot Plays: Albert Okwuegbunam
Notes: Javonte Williams and his timeshare with Melvin Gordon is annoying, but Javonte is still averaging a healthy 20.8 FPG in his last four games and the Raiders in that span are giving up a generous 32.5 FPG. Javonte edged out Melvin in snap share (59% to 41%), touches (19 to 16), scrimmage yards (81 to 61), and routes (18 to 10) last week and Javonte has hovered just below 60% of the snaps in three of his last four games. Drew Lock is terrible, but he does give Courtland Sutton more upside, at least. But Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Tim Patrick are tough to trust, as is Noah Fant. The Raiders are giving up the fifth-fewest FPG (30.0) to WRs this season, but they’ve been much friendlier to TEs, giving up the fourth-most FPG (16.7) to the position.The problem is Albert Okwuegbunam has crushed Fant’s upside.
The Raiders passing game may be in trouble in this tough matchup, a brutal one for Hunter Renfrow, so I’m expecting Josh Jacobs to get 20+ opportunities. Jacobs posted 17/82/1 scrimmage in this matchup two months ago and Kenyan Drake added 6/73/2 scrimmage in that contest. It’s much easier to run on Denver than to pass, and Denver’s offense is lame so they won’t likely run away on the scoreboard. Renfrow could be contained by Bryce Callahan, and there’s not much else here to trust for fantasy, including Carr, who has scored 12 FP in three straight games without Darren Waller. Foster Moreau did have a big game last week, and for what it’s worth Waller caught all five of his targets for 59 yards when these teams met in mid-October.
Washington Football Team (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (10-4)
Players I like more than usual: Amari Cooper, Tony Pollard
Players I’m neutral on: CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott, Terry McLaurin, Michael Gallup
Players I like less than usual: Ezekiel Elliott, Antonio Gibson, Taylor Heinicke
Longshot Plays: None of note.
Notes: It looks like Antonio Gibson may play, but he’s really banged up, and their OL is also banged up. Jaret Patterson may get some extra work, and they have Wendell Smallwood in the mix in the JD McKissic role. You really don’t want to rely on Taylor Heinicke at this point. Heinicke completed just 11/25 passes (44.0%) for 122 yards (4.9 YPA), one TD, and one INT against the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago. Terry McLaurin managed just 2/51 receiving on four targets with Garrett Gilbert last week, and he suffered a concussion against the Cowboys two weeks ago and went catchless. He’s a shaky WR3 who should once again see a lot of top corner Trevon Diggs.
Dak Prescott continues to struggle, and at this point, I can’t predict a strong showing.
Dak posted just 211/1 passing with two INTs while averaging 5.4 YPA in this matchup two weeks ago. Washington is still giving up the most FPG (22.9) to QBs, at least. I really don’t know why, but CeeDee Lamb hasn’t done crap in this matchup in his three games, and Amari Cooper gets it done. Cooper was also complaining a little this week, so he’s likely to get more looks. Plus, they are down their top outside CB in William Jackson III. Cooper went for 5/51/1 receiving on seven targets against Washington two weeks ago and in his last three games in this matchup dating back to 2020, he’s averaged 6/81/.7, good for 18.3 FPG. Lamb is the #1, tho. He did drop some balls last week, but Lamb posted a decent 7/61 receiving on 10 targets in this matchup two weeks ago. Michael Gallup is less appealing with Dak struggling, but he had a solid 5/60 receiving on nine targets in this matchup two weeks ago. Dalton Schultz is back producing, but he had just a four-yard catch on three targets against in Week 14, so he’s a so-so starter. Ezekiel Elliott hasn’t run on this defense in his last three games, and he’s averaging fewer than 7.0 FPG in this matchup in his last three. So I like him less than usual and Tony Pollard more than usual.
Miami Dolphins (7-7) at New Orleans Saints (7-7)
Players I like more than usual: Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki
Players I’m neutral on: Tua Tagovailoa, DeVante Parker
Players I like less than usual:
Longshot Plays:
Notes: It is a tougher matchup for Tua Tagovailoa, and the Saints just completely shut down Tom Brady, but I do like Jaylen Waddle, who has a nice matchup inside, which is where the Saints have been vulnerable with CB PJ Williams. Over the last eight weeks, they are giving up the fourth-most FPG to slot receivers. Mike Gesicki 19 targets and a 30% target share in Miami’s last two games, and while the matchup may look tough against a defense that frustrated Rob Gronkowski last week, S Malcolm Jenkins is on the Covid list. If Jenkins is out, that’s a big loss so Gesicki will likely be targeted plenty. DeVante Parker will see a lot of Marshon Lattimore, and Lattimore and company can slow him down, so I like Parker a little less than usual. Duke Johnson had the surprising performance of the season last week, but I don’t trust him just yet in this RBBC. Myles Gaskin saw just one practice leading up to Week 14 but should be better off this week. It’s a brutal matchup against a Saints defense that’s giving up the second-fewest FPG (18.9) to RBs this season.
It’s Ian Book for the Saints, and he’s a second-reaction and movement guy. That’s great, but you can’t use any of their receivers this week. Heck, they’ve been bad plays for the most part all year with three different QBs. Alvin Kamara should get 25-30 opportunities if he can handle it. He gets an easier matchup this week against a Dolphins’ defense that’s giving up 4.3 YPC to RBs, but I don’t know if he’ll get either one of their OTs back this week. Ryan Ramczyk (knee) is definitely out, but Terron Armstead (knee) has a chance. Adam Trautman is on the Covid list, so if I was very desperate, I might try out Nick Vannett, but the Dolphins have given up just one touchdown to a TE since Week 4.
