This has been the hardest season of fantasy I’ve had in seven years of playing full-time. I’m in 17 leagues that I consider higher stakes ($250+ buy-in) and 15 of them are in contention for the playoffs, but half of those contending teams still feel pretty uncomfortable. With all of these injuries – no team has been left unscathed. I’m just praying that Deebo Samuel can come back in time to win some championships.
The next few weeks are an absolute free-for-all with CMC out for the season again, Cook slated to potentially miss the rest of the season, and Swift potentially missing a few games. This was the perfect year for Superhero RB – where you capture the fragility of RBs by taking just one runner in the first two rounds and then hammer wide receivers (and draft an early-round QB or TE) – but now all of the Superhero’s are hurt… except for Jonathan Taylor, Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris, and Joe Mixon.
These were the top-24 RBs by ADP on July 1st this summer.— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 30, 2021
Absolute carnage. pic.twitter.com/yVKnIvz7sq
Here’s your Week 13 Stat-Pack to help a bit during crunch time.
Note: Cardinals / Chiefs were on bye and aren’t included.
If we remove the game that he left early with an ankle injury (Week 10 vs. Dallas), Cordarrelle Patterson is averaging 20.1 FPG in his nine full games.
That 20.1 FPG would make Patterson the RB4 – ahead of Alvin Kamara (19.8) and Joe Mixon (19.6).
Patterson has now finished as the weekly RB20 or better in eight straight healthy games and has five finishes of RB12 or better in this span.
Outside of his games against the Jets (26.9 FP) and Dolphins (23.3 FP) in Weeks 5 and 7, Kyle Pitts is averaging 6.4 targets, 3.4 receptions, 44.1 yards, and 7.8 fantasy points per game across his eight other games.
Lamar Jackson’s 9.4 FP vs. Browns on SNF was the worst game he’s had in 47 career regular season starts.
I am not sure what the Ravens are doing with Rashod Bateman…
With Marquise Brown back, he led the WR group in routes (33) – but Bateman (23), Sammy Watkins (19), and Devin Duvernay (18) all formed a three-man rotation (out of 40 pass plays).
Duvernay ran most of his routes from the slot (11-of-18) while Watkins (17-of-19 routes out wide) and Bateman (20-of-23) are strictly lining up on the boundary. So, Watkins is blocking Bateman from truly breaking out.
Even after a slow-ish start, Stefon Diggs has scored a TD or gone over 60 yards in every game this year.
Since Week 6, Diggs is averaging 20.4 FPG – making him the WR3 in this span behind only Cooper Kupp (26.4) and Deebo Samuel (20.6).
With Zack Moss (healthy scratch) out, the Bills used Devin Singletary (68% snaps) as their lead back and Matt Breida (32%) as the clear No. 2.
Singletary led the way in carries (15 to 9) and routes (28 to 10).
Pour one out for Gold Standard CMC… again.
After McCaffrey exited the game in the second-half against the Dolphins, Ameer Abdullah (67% snaps) actually led the way over Chuba Hubbard (46%). The Panthers used both backs on the field at the same time quite a bit.
Abdullah ran 11 routes to Hubbard’s 4.
My read is that Abdullah – not Hubbard – is probably the better pickup, but both of these guys upside is capped for the rest of the year since Cam Newton will be the goal-line back.
Since returning in Week 9, David Montgomery leads all RBs in snaps (88%) by a mile. James Conner (80%) is No. 2 and Jonathan Taylor is No. 3 (77%).
Andy Dalton has thrown 62 passes over the last two weeks. 24 of them have been directed at Darnell Mooney (39%).
Since getting dinged with an ankle injury in Week 5, Joe Mixon has averaged a monster 24.7 FPG over his last six games.
So, since Week 6, Mixon is the RB2 – trailing only Jonathan Taylor (28.7 FPG).
Ja’Marr Chase has cooled off a bit since he dropped 8/201/1 on the Ravens back in Week 7, but I’m not concerned…
Chase has 31 targets over the last four weeks, which is good enough for a 24% target share.
Chase’s target share during his hot start in Weeks 1-7? 24%. Nothing has changed.
It’s just that the Bengals have dominated their last two games on the ground and Burrow has only needed to throw it 29 and 24 times.
The Bengals remaining schedule (vs. Chargers / 49ers / Broncos / Ravens / Chiefs) looks teed up for five highly competitive games and more passing volume.
Cleveland’s offense has simply fallen apart recently as they’ve been held to 17 or fewer points six times in their last 7 games.
Since Week 6, the Browns have scored a FG or TD on just 26.1% of their possessions – which is fourth-worst behind only the Lions (23.4%), Seahawks (23.1%), and Texans (20.8%).
I’m not convinced that it’s going to get much better out of their Week 13 bye, either. The Browns close out the year with the Ravens / Raiders / Packers / Steelers.
I know that Chiefs game is still burned into our brains and he missed a game with a calf injury, but Dak Prescott has been consistently awesome this year. He has now finished as a top-12 scoring QB in 8-of-10 games and has scored 20+ FP in 7-of-10.
If Dak can get all of his guys back healthy, the Cowboys offense as a whole has league-winning potential down the stretch run. Dallas’ remaining schedule is…
Week 13 vs. Saints – NO allowing seventh-most passing yards per game / just gave up 40 and 31 points to the Eagles and Bills.
Week 14 / 16 vs. Washington – I think the WAS defensive “turnaround” is a mirage. They played the Broncos in Week 8, dominated time of possession over the Bucs in Week 10, then played the dead Panthers and Seahawks.
Week 15 vs. Giants – Enough said.
Week 17 vs. Cardinals – Massive shootout potential with massive playoff implications.
In the five full games Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy have played together this year, Sutton has managed to earn just 15 targets total. Yikes.
(Jeudy has 31 targets).
Javonte Williams looked awesome once again and still got fewer carries than Melvin Gordon (17 to 14) vs. the Chargers.
The one thing we can hang our hats on is that Williams has out-snapped Gordon 58% to 42% in their last two games after it was a dead-even 50/50 split in Weeks 1-9.
Noah Fant (14) and Albert Okwuegbunam (9) have split targets over their last three games.
- Lions RB snaps after D’Andre Swift was ruled out: Jamaal Williams (23), Jermar Jefferson (5), Godwin Igwebuike (4) out of 31 plays.
Green Bay Packers
I guess Aaron Rodgers should play with a broken toe more? Two of his 3 highest scoring games have come the last two weeks (33.5 and 26.3 FP).
Unsurprisingly, Aaron Jones was limited with his knee injury. He played on 49% of the snaps, tying a season-low from back in Week 1.
The Texans went with a two-man rotation at RB for the first time this season with Phillip Lindsay cut. Rex Burkhead (61% snaps) led the way over David Johnson (39%).
Burkhead was the primary passing down back, too. He ran 17 routes to DJ’s 10.
Deep dynasty alert here: Brevin Jordan played on 60% of the Texans snaps in Week 12, a season-high. He made his NFL debut back in Week 8.
Once again, HC Frank Reich got a little too cute with his play-calling in a winnable game against the Buccaneers.
At halftime, the game was 24-14 Colts.
Reich called 21 passes to just 9 runs in the second-half.
The Colts 21 second-half passes gained an average of 5.5 yards.
The 9 runs gained 6.7 yards.
I know James Robinson got it done with 115 scrimmage yards on 20 touches, but his snaps have been cut since he’s been dealing with this ankle / heel injury. His 52% snap rate in Week 12 was a season-low.
Since missing a game with the injury in Week 9, Robinson has been on the field for just 58% of the snaps over the last three weeks. That ranks just 22nd among RBs.
Jaguars WR routes last week with Jamal Agnew out for the season: Marvin Jones (44), Laquon Treadwell (39), Laviska Shenault (36), Tavon Austin (7), John Brown (2).
At the very least, Shenault went back to his natural position in the slot as he lined up inside on 25 of his 36 routes and even got 2 snaps in the backfield.
Las Vegas Raiders
When Darren Waller missed Week 7, Foster Moreau played on 100% of the snaps and got 6 targets.
Hunter Renfrow also stands to benefit if Waller misses time. He had 7/58 (on 9 targets) back in Week 7 and obviously just crushed the Cowboys for 8/134.
Kenyan Drake played on just 18% of the snaps on Thanksgiving, a season-low.
It certainly hasn’t been pretty, but we are finally getting to see Josh Jacobs in the role we’ve always wanted. He’s run 61 routes to Drake’s 30 over their last three games and Jacobs has 16 targets as a result.
Los Angeles Chargers
In his first five games, Mike Williams got 16 targets of 15+ air yards.
Over his last six games, Williams has just 8 deep targets of 15+ air yards.
Los Angeles Rams
What has caused the Rams offensive drop off?
I wrote about this before their bye, but opposing defenses have simply not been blitzing Matthew Stafford at all…
Over their last three games, Stafford has been blitzed on just 9% of his dropbacks – which is by far the lowest rate in the league. Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott (16%) are getting blitzed at the second-lowest rate since Week 9, for what it’s worth.
That’s important because Stafford has been unconscious against the blitz this year…
Against the blitz, Stafford has completed 74% of his passes for 9.0 YPA and a 7:0 TD-to-INT ratio.
When he’s not blitzed, Stafford completes 65% of his passes for 8.1 YPA and a 20:9 TD-to-INT ratio over the full season
Over the last three weeks, Stafford has completed 61% of his passes for 6.3 YPA and a 5:5 TD-to-INT ratio when he hasn’t been blitzed.
You have to give him credit, but Myles Gaskin stuck to his bit of scoring TDs while averaging 3.1 YPC against the Panthers.
Since Week 6, Gaskin has 105 carries and 315 yards for a perfect 3.0 YPC.
Philip Lindsay got 12 carries, but 10 of them came in the second-half when the game got out of hand.
Since Week 6, Jaylen Waddle has seen 8 or more targets in 6-of-7 games and is averaging 18.1 FPG (seventh-best among WRs).
In four career starts, Alexander Mattison has averaged 24.8 touches, 124.8 scrimmage yards, and 22.1 FPG.
Mattison’s weekly finishes in those starts without Dalvin Cook: RB47 > RB4 > RB7 > RB6.
New England Patriots
Patriots RB snaps over the last two weeks: Damien Harris (38%) / Rhamondre Stevenson (33%) / Brandon Bolden (29%).
Harris has 22 carries… and so does Stevenson.
They’ve even gone with a full rotation in the red-zone… Harris (10 snaps) leads the way over Stevenson (5) and Bolden (5) on their 20 red-zone plays.
New Orleans Saints
Taysom Hill averaged 21.6 FPG in his four starts last year.
Hill’s weekly finishes in that span: QB3 > QB12 > QB6 > QB11.
Hill averaged 9.8 carries and 52.3 rushing yards per game in those four starts.
Hill averaged 11.2 fantasy points per game as a runner in those starts.
For reference, Jalen Hurts has averaged 9.8 FPG as a runner this year. Lamar Jackson is at 8.3 FPG.
New York Giants
- He only averaged 3.1 YPC and 3.3 YPR, but Saquon Barkley got true bell-cow usage against the Eagles as he played on 87% of the snaps.
New York Jets
The Jets offensive approach was very conservative as 19 of Zach Wilson’s 24 passes traveled less than 10 air yards in Week 12.
Elijah Moore got a team-high 8 targets from Wilson, but the aDOT on those looks was just 6.3 yards.
Moore also led the team in routes (30) over Keelan Cole (29) and Jamison Crowder (23) with Corey Davis out.
Jets RB snaps in Week 12 were: Tevin Coleman (45%) / Ty Johnson (34%) / Austin Walter (24%).
- Out of nowhere, Jalen Reagor led the team in targets (7) against the Giants. It did not go well.
After getting just two targets in Week 5 vs. Broncos, Diontae Johnson has seen 12 targets/game over his last six contests.
Johnson now has seen double-digit targets in 8-of-10 games.
This is crazy: Johnson has finished inside of the top-24 PPR scorers in 9-of-10 games.
In his first game without Eric Ebron (knee), Pat Freiermuth ran a route on 35 of the Steelers’ 47 pass plays (75%).
San Francisco 49ers
After missing Week 11 with a broken finger, Eli Mitchell got back this week and HC Kyle Shanhan immediately used him as a true bell cow. Mitchell set season-highs in snaps (70%) and touches (32) en route to putting up a 27.8 FP.
In his eight full games this year, Mitchell has played at least 60% of the team’s snaps in every outing and has handled 18 or more touches six times.
Mitchell’s playoff schedule is gorgeous to boot (vs. Seahawks / Bengals / Falcons / Titans / Texans in Weeks 13-17).
We’re watching the end of an era in Seattle with Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson both potentially being out…
Since Wilson returned, Seattle is averaging a pitiful, league-low 52 plays per game over their last three contests.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After Leonard Fournette saw just 11 touches back in Week 8 before the Bucs’ bye, HC Bruce Arians has effectively benched Gio Bernard and is only using Ronald Jones sparingly.
As a result, Fournette has seen a big increase in activity on passing downs since their bye.
Fournette was averaging a respectable 4.9 targets, 3.8 receptions, and 29.9 yards per game while running a route on 54% of passing downs in Weeks 1-8.
Since then, Fournette has been involved on 66% of the Bucs’ passing plays and caught 8, 6, and 7 balls in his last three outings.
Rob Gronkowski is averaging 18.2 FPG in his five full games – which would make him the TE1 over Travis Kelce (16.9 FPG) this season.
Gronk has seen at least eight targets in four of his 5 healthy games.
- It obviously didn’t result in a win, but the Titans completely scrapped their passing game without AJ Brown (IR) against the Patriots. Ryan Tannehill dropped back to pass just 23 times while the Titans ran it a whopping 39 times.
Antonio Gibson either set or met career-highs in carries (29), targets (7), and snaps (68%) on MNF.
Logan Thomas assumed a near full-time role in his return off of IR as he ran a route on 68% of the passing plays.
Meanwhile, Curtis Samuel ran just 6 routes in his return – which was tied for fifth on the team.