Here’s my very quick look at the week. If you want more information and analysis, you can always read our Week 12 Game Hubs.
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)
Players I like more than usual: Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, Diontae Johnson, Najee Harris, Pat Friermuth
Players I’m neutral on: Joe Burrow, Chase Claypool, Tee Higgins, CJ Uzomah
Players I like less than usual: None of note.
Longshot Plays: Ben Roethlisberger
Notes: It’s a so-so total of 44 expected in this one, so I’m not expecting major fireworks, but the key guys for both teams should be okay. It’s been tougher sledding lately for Najee Harris, but he had 19 targets against the Bengals back in Week 3, and he’s obviously in your lineup. Otherwise, I like all the key guys other than Chase Claypool, who I still don’t trust. Ben Roethlisberger has 6 TD passes in his last three games in this matchup, and Big Ben hit 3+ passing TDs for the first time last week, and looked good. Big Ben needed 58 attempts to get to 318/1 passing against the Bengals in Week 3. Diontae Johnson may get a few more targets with Eric Ebron and Ray-Ray McCloud out and he put up 14/190/2 on 24 targets in this matchup last year in two games. Claypool did get it done last week with 5/93 receiving and he just missed a 42-yard TD, so he’s certainly viable. Claypool also posted 9/96 receiving on 15 targets in this matchup back in Week 3 with Diontae out of the lineup. Pat Freiermuth has scored four times in four games and he has 4+ catches in five straight. He had 3/22/1 on five targets in this matchup earlier this season and now Ebron is on IR. Freiermuth saw his two highest snap shares (78%, 71%) when Ebron missed in Weeks 8-9 for a hamstring injury, so he’s a solid TE1.
Joe Burrow hasn’t been a great play in this matchup in his young career, with just a 60% completion rate and 6.6 YPA, but CB Joe Haden being out helps. Burrow did go for 172/3 passing on just 18 attempts (9.6 YPA) against the Steelers in September. No Haden helps both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and the Steelers have been shaky covering the slot, so Tyler Boyd is a viable option with more upside than usual. Boyd’s coming off one of his best games and Boyd had another one of his better games against his hometown Steelers in Week 3 with 4/36/1 in Pittsburgh. Chase was overall contained but not enough to prevent him from dropping 4/65/2 on 5 targets against the Steelers in Week 3. Higgins has now failed to score in six straight games since he opened the year with TDs in each of the first two games, but he’s worth using for sure with Haden out. C.J. Uzomah has been quiet and didn’t catch a pass on his lone target against Pittsburgh in late September. They also elevated Thadeous Moss over the weekend and might want to look at him.
New York Jets (2-8) at Houston Texans (2-8)
Players I like more than usual: Brandin Cooks
Players I’m neutral on: Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder, Tevin Coleman, David Johnson, Rex Burkhead
Players I like less than usual: Zach Wilson, Corey Davis
Longshot Plays: Tyrod Taylor, Ty Johnson
Notes: It’s Zach Wilson time, which is a little scary for all involved because this guy has clearly made everything worse around him, including his OL, his RBs, and Elijah Moore. He did seem to click well with Corey Davis, but Davis was downgraded to doubtful over the weekend. Moore’s the WR1 the last four weeks, so he’s hard to sit for most. He most promisingly played a nine-week high 80% of the snaps last week and he went nuts, so we should assume snaps and targets won’t be a problem. Jamison Crowder also clicked well with Wilson and Crowder remains involved, and he posted 11/85/1 receiving in his two games with Wilson earlier this season. Davis is dealing with a groin injury that limited him this week, so that’s not good. It’s certainly a good matchup for all. The Texans are giving up the eighth-most FPG (37.3) to WRs this season. It’ll be Tevin Coleman as the top runner with Ty Johnson as the pass-catching back with possibly some LaMichael Perine at times. I’m with Johnson as the best option, obviously. It’s also a good matchup, as the Texans are giving up a solid 147.5 scrimmage yards per game to RBs this season. The Jets should try to come out running it to help Wilson.
The reeling Jets are now giving up the third-highest EPA/attempt on the season and QBs are completing 73% of their passes with a 9.4 YPA against them the last four weeks. Tyrod Taylor ran last week with 6/28/2, so he’s hard to ignore as one of the top streamers at QB this week. Tyrod’s the kind of player who usually takes advantage of good matchups. I’m in on Brandin Cooks for at least one more week. The Jets are handing out 13/206/1.3 per game to WRs the last four weeks, good for 46 FPG and Cooks is due. It’s actually a “blowup” spot for Cooks, but confidence in him has dropped. Last week, it was Rex Burkhead and David Johnson handling 42% and 52% snap share and neither of them did crap, so I think we could see some Royce Freeman this week. Still, in terms of desperation plays, I’d have to rank these guys Johnson, Rex, and then Royce. The Jets are giving up by far the most FPG (37.8) to RBs and they also give up a league-high 4.87 YPC and the most FP/attempt to RBs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) at Indianapolis Colts (6-5)
Players I like more than usual: Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Michael Pittman
Players I’m neutral on: Jonathan Taylor, Leonard Fournette, Carson Wentz
Players I like less than usual: Nyheim Hines, TY Hilton Colts TEs
Longshot Plays: None of note.
Notes: He will not have his boy Antonio Brown, but Tom Brady has been rolling with 2+ TD passes in six straight. Despite limiting Josh Allen to 209/2 passing and 6.0 YPA last week, the Colts are still giving up the fourth-most FPG (20.8) to QBs. Big Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both have very good matchups, and Rob Gronkowki has a great matchup. Evans has now scored in four straight (6 TDs) and the Colts are giving up a league-high 1.5 receiving TDs per game to WRs. CB Xavier Rhodes won’t have an answer for him on the outside this week, and Godwin’s looking good as well. Gronk has 4+ catches in his four full games with 18.9 FPG in those games and the Colts have been hit for 12+ FP by individual TEs in four straight (Knox, Arnold, Griffin, Swaim). They’ll likely look to take away the deep ball by playing their two (shaky) safeties deep and take their chances with Gronk beating them over the middle. There’s upside for a big game here. Leonard Fournette got vultured by Ronald Jones last week and has a tougher matchup here. The Colts are giving up just 117.4 scrimmage yards per game and the fewest FPG (18.5) to RBs. But Fournette is still a damn near lock for 10+ FP with 3+ catches in nine of his 10 games.
We shall see exactly how good Jonathan Taylor is this week with DT Vita Vea (knee) expected to play for the Bucs, who are giving up a league-low 56.2 rushing yards per game to RBs. I’d think the coaches will want to use Taylor in the passing game to get him in space as often as possible, so 5+ catches are very possible (they give up 6.5 per game to RBs in their last four). Carson Wentz will have to sling it in this one, which is good news for Michael Pittman. The Bucs faced a league-high pass rate of 66.9%, so Pittman’s targets should be way up this week. Our guy Wes Huber likes the matchup from a schematic perspective, and Pittman has a nice size advantage over Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has been playing outside lately (normally their slot corner). You simply can’t trust any of the secondary weapons for the Colts because it’s still a tough matchup, and they use like 7-8 other skill players most weeks.
Atlanta Falcons (4-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)
Players I like more than usual: James Robinson, Laviska Shenault, Russell Gage
Players I’m neutral on: Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts,
Players I like less than usual: Marvin Jones, Dan Arnold, Matt Ryan, Falcons RBs
Longshot Plays: Wayne Gallman
Notes: This game actually has a few good low-end WRs to look at this week. Starting with the Falcons, Russell Gage saw a team-high eight targets last week (25% share) for 5/49, and the Jags won’t have top corner Shaquill Griffin, which really helps Gage’s chances. The Falcons have had 10 days to prepare for this one, so I like Gage’s chances of surprising with a top-30 WR finish. I really don’t want to use Matt Ryan, though. He’s actually fallen below 9.0 FP in three of his last four, and the Jags defense is actually pretty tough lately and got after Josh Allen two weeks ago. Kyle Pitts could also benefit from CB Diggs out, at least, and George Kittle came through with 4/34/1 receiving in this matchup last week. Cordarrelle Patterson may still be limited, but they need him badly, and if you do as well, use him and hope for the best. They will not have Qadree Ollison, so they will have to get by with Mike Davis and Wayne Gallman. The Jags also limited San Francisco’s potent rushing attack to 29/82 rushing for 2.8 YPC last week.
His snaps have been down to about 60% the last two games as he plays through his knee/heel issue, but James Robinson’s been solid with volume, and he did work all week in practice with a full practice Friday. The Falcons are respectable on the ground, but they are giving up a healthy 147.2 scrimmage yards per game to RBs this season, so J-Rob is a good bet for 100+ yards, and if he scores and adds 2-3 grabs, it’s a fine day. Marvin Jones has fallen below 10 FP in six of his last seven and is facing a tough matchup against stud corner AJ Terrell. So with
Laviska Shenault moved back into his ideal role in the slot after Jamal Agnew was lost for the season, he has a chance. He caught all five of his targets for 50 yards last week and Atlanta has been vulnerable inside since slot ace Isaiah Oliver went on IR a few weeks ago. Shenault may also get 1-3 carries in this one. But we are not using Trevor Lawrence, who is averaging just 146 passing yards per game the last three weeks. Dan Arnold was a reliable option for three straight games until last week, when he goose egg’d us. The Falcons have been tough on TEs all year and Hunter Henry managed just 2/25 receiving on three targets against the Falcons last week. He did almost score, so Arnold isn’t hopeless, but the numbers suggest looking elsewhere.
Carolina Panthers (5-6) at Miami Dolphins (4-7)
Players I like more than usual: None of note
Players I’m neutral on: Christian McCaffrey, Cam Newton, DJ Moore, Myles Gaskin, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, Tua Tagovailoa
Players I like less than usual: Robby Anderson
Longshot Plays: None of note
Notes: I have struggled with this one because my basic numbers on Cam Newton’s projection landed him very high in the rankings, and he did look good last week, even though he threw only short passes. But Miami’s defense has held its last three opponents (Jets, Ravens, Texans) to 26 combined points, and Lamar Jackson got crushed against their pass rush and scheme, posting only 238/1 receiving and 9/39 rushing in this matchup in Week 10. The Dolphins had all kinds of trouble with Elijah Moore last week, with the rookie going for 8/141/1 receiving, so that’s a good sign for D.J. Moore. The Dolphins held Corey Davis to 3/35 receiving on six targets last week, though, so I don’t think much of Robby Anderson this week. Christian McCaffrey had a season-high 90% snap share last week, so expect 20+ points even though the Dolphins are giving up the 11th-fewest FPG (22.7) to RBs this season.
It’s clear right now that Tua Tagovailoa is a matchup guy who needs a good matchup to deliver, and this isn’t really a good one. On the season, the Panthers allow the second-lowest EPA/attempt in the league, and the sixth-fewest FP/attempt. Over the last four games, they’re giving up only 10.7 FPG to QBs. Tua does have 18+ FP in three of his last four full games with 40 pass attempts per game, and Taylor Heinicke got 3 TD passes against them last week. I certainly think Jaylen Waddle is worth playing every week these days, and Terry McLaurin got them for 5/103/1 last week. But again, TMC was the first WR to hit 65+ receiving yards against them since Week 6, and they give up the third-fewest FPG out of the slot. The best news for Mike Gesicki is that Adam Shaheen is out, so he only has to battle Durham Smythe for targets. He has seen 6+ targets in nine of his last 10, but the Panthers are giving up the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game (40.7) to TEs, and they held Zach Ertz, Hunter Henry, and Kyle Pitts each to under 10 FP in Weeks 8-10. The Panthers are easier to run on than to throw on, so Myles Gaskin, with 15+ touches in five straight, is certainly worth using. The Panthers are still giving up the second-fewest FPG (18.5) to the position, but they’re allowing 4.5 YPC to RBs and 4.8/40 receiving to RBs the last four weeks.
Tennessee Titans (8-3) at New England Patriots (7-4)
Players I like more than usual: Damien Harris/Rhamondre Stevenson
Players I’m neutral on: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor
Players I like less than usual: Ryan Tannehill, Hunter Henry, Mac Jones
Longshot Plays: Jakobi Meyers, Dontrell Hilliard
Notes: The Titans look DOA in this one with AJ Brown placed on IR and fellow wideout Marcus Johnson already placed on the list earlier in the week. Ryan Tannehill is coming off a disastrous four-INT performance against the lowly Texans, and the Pats have smelled blood in the water with Tannehill in the past and have feasted. They can take out his likely top guy in Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, so it could be up to Dez Fitzpatrick (46 routes last week), Chester Rogers (45), and Golden Tate (on his couch last week)! Yikes. Tannehill does have three mediocre TEs, at least! We can’t use any of them, either. We’ve been told that the team is very high on Dontrell Hilliard, so with Adrian Peterson gone, Hilliard is in good shape for a big role. D’Onta Foreman has also made some mistakes, so Hilliard could be in line for 20+ opportunities with Jeremy McNichols out. The Patriots are giving up a generous 6.7/62.0 receiving per game to RBs, which gives Hilliard a chance on the low end.
This is setting up to be another boring game for the Patriots that is won by their defense and their three-headed RB attack. It’s a full-blown committee for the early-down snaps between Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, and they play Brandon Bolden in clear passing situations. The good news is the Pats could get their RBs 30+ carries in this one, so both are solid flexes. Keep in mind the rookie Stevenson led them in yardage last week and had a great 38-yard run called back. Kendrick Bourne has been steady with 4+ receptions in six of his last nine, but he’s a low-end reach. Nelson Agholor is completely TD/big-play dependent. It is a great matchup on paper for Jakobi Meyers, who has 4+ catches in 10-of-11 games this year. The Titans are still giving up a league-high 43.5 FPG to WRs this season and are still giving up the most FPG to slot receivers (28.9). Meyers will have to score to come through, most likely. The Titans have given up just three TDs to TEs this season and have been a tough matchup all year, so not great for TD-or-bust option Hunter Henry. Mac Jones will have to toss 3 TDs to have a nice fantasy day, most likely, but the Titans are giving up the third-most FPG (20.9) to QBs this season.
Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) at New York Giants (3-7)
Players I like more than usual: Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley
Players I’m neutral on: Kenny Golladay, Daniel Jones, Darius Slayton
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: Evan Engram, Boston Scott
Notes: The Eagles are easy to figure out right now. They have a top fantasy QB, a solid WR1 and TE, and a dominant running game that will be manned by two guys this week. Miles Sanders has a real shot in this run-heavy offense with Jordan Howard out, which increases his chances of scoring a TD. The Eagles have outrushed their opponents over the last four games by an insane margin of 129.8 yards, and Sanders last week stepped back into a large role with season-highs in carries (16) and rushing yards (94), despite a benching for a spell due to a fumble. Boston Scott lingers and is a viable longshot play, as the Giants are giving up a generous 4.5 YPC and the fifth-most FPG (27.1) to RBs this season along with the fourth-highest EPA/attempt on the season. Jalen Hurts is coming off his best fantasy game of the season, so you’re using him even as the Giants have improved on defense. But while they have yet to be tested by a mobile QB, they’re giving up the 11th-most rushing yards per game (119.7) overall. Tom Brady did his taxes in the pocket against this defense last week, so NY’s lack of pass rush should help Hurts’ chances of getting the ball to DeVonta Smith, who continues to look good on film. The Giants are giving up the fifth-most catches per game (14.0) to WRs this season. Dallas Goedert is tough to trust, but his upside is tantalizing. He put up 5/62 receiving on a season-high eight targets last week and he owns 27% target share over the last five weeks. The Giants have been hit hard by Rob Gronkowski (6/71 receiving) and Darren Waller (7/92) in their last two games, so he’s looking better than usual.
The Giants offense may show some signs of life this week after they let go of the mediocre Jason Garrett, but I don’t want to see how things go with Daniel Jones in any lineup, especially with Kadarius Toney doubtful and Sterling Shepard out. Kenny Golladay has been hopeless, and he and Darius Slayton are tough to trust with Darius Slay shutting people down this year. I’d think, if the Giants show any signs of life on offense, it’ll be Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram. Barkley with a 62% snap share last week had only 6/25 rushing, but his 6/31 receiving was encouraging, and the Eagles are giving up the eighth-most FPG (26.7) to RBs. If Mark Ingram can go for 22/113 scrimmage against them as he did last week, then Barkley looks sneaky to me this week. I could see 6-7 checkdowns in this one, so if he can pop off a big play on one of them, he’ll likely come through. Kyle Rudolph’s doubtful and with the WRs hurting, Engram really has a chance. The Eagles have been the friendliest matchup for TEs (19.8 FPG) with nine different TEs reaching double-digit FP in the last six games. I’d expect the Giants to show some signs of life with Garrett gone, and it can be argued that Garrett did his most horrible job utilizing Engram.
Los Angeles Chargers (6-4) at Denver Broncos (5-5)
Players I like more than usual: Keenan Allen, Austin Eckler
Players I’m neutral on: Justin Herbert, Mike Williams
Players I like less than usual:
Longshot Plays:
Notes: You don’t need me to tell you to use Austin Ekeler, whose TD prowess I used to question. But he’s now converted 5-of-8 carries inside the five-yard line, Justin Herbert has been up-and-down, and this matchup might be a little tricky for him, but not too bad. Herbert was a juggernaut with his legs last week, and that would be huge if he continued to run. Herbert posted 531/4 passing with 47 rushing yards in two matchups with the Broncos last season, and that was with stud CB Bryce Callahan (IR). Keenan Allen has been rolling and he posted 9/67/1 receiving on 12 targets in his only matchup with the Broncos last season, and he won’t have to worry about Callahan. Mike Williams got lucky on a blown coverage TD last week, but it does count. He actually performed well in this matchup last season, same coaching staff and scheme, finishing with a combined 13/153/1 receiving in two games.
Coming out of the bye, here’s a reminder that Teddy Bridgewater is coming off his second-worst fantasy performance of the season in Week 10 against the Eagles. At least Ben Roethlisberger was able to put up 273/3 passing against the Chargers last week, and they are still down CB Asante Samuel Jr. The Chargers are giving up the sixth-fewest catches per game (11.7) to WRs this season, so it’s a so-so matchup for Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick. Jeudy vs. Chris Harris in the slot is not great news, so the best matchup should be for Sutton or Patrick. Actually, the best matchup is for Noah Fant. Backup Albert Okwuegbunam, is good and is coming off a 3/77 receiving performance before their byem but the Chargers have given up four TDs to TEs over their last two games and they are first in FP/Target to TEs and second-worst in terms of EPA/attempt and YP/T (yards per target). The toughest matchup overall is for their WRs outside and in the slot, so I like Fant’s chances of having a prominent and productive game. Will Javonte Williams get more play after he played over Melvin Gordon in their last week due to a big Gordon fumble? He should, and coming out of the bye is a good time to commit more to Williams. The problem is Vic Fangio is a meathead, so he may not force a shift. The Chargers have tightened their run defense up a bit since their Week 7 bye, but they are still the worst team in the league on the season in terms of EPA/attempt and give up a third-worst 4.79 YPC to RBs on the season.
Los Angeles Rams (7-3) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Players I like more than usual: AJ Dillon (If Aaron Jones is out)
Players I’m neutral on: Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, Darrell Henderson, Odell Beckham, Tyler Higbee, Aaron Rodgers
Players I like less than usual: Davante Adams, MVS
Longshot Plays: Van Jefferson
Notes: This is a tough one to get a handle on with the Rams struggling a bit on offense and the Packers defense playing well as of late. Kirk Cousins did have a big game in this matchup last week with 341/3 passing. They are down one of their top corners in Kevin King, which could help Odell Beckham or Van Jefferson on the outside. Cooper Kupp actually has a tougher matchup, as Chandon Sullivan has been really good filling in for Jaire Alexander. The Packers give up the third-fewest FPG to slot receivers. Of course, Justin Jefferson last week consistently roasted this secondary and scored 37.2 FP on 8/169/2. Jefferson has 3+ catches in five straight and he’s posted his two highest snap shares in the last two games (96%, 95%), and he put up 6/46/1 receiving against the Packers in the playoffs last season. I don’t want to count on Odell, but he should have a much bigger role and he comes with the upside to make a single big play. Tyler Higbee has a pulse still, as annoying as he is, and the Packers gave up 11+ FP to TEs in three straight games Weeks 8-10 before they held Tyler Conklin to 3/35 receiving last week. Sean McVay has abandoned the run with just 30 carries in their last two games, and the Packers are giving up the ninth-fewest FPG (22.2) to RBs this season, but Dalvin Cook went off for 25/115/1 last week, so there’s hope for Darrell Henderson, especially with Aaron Rodgers shaky with no practicing this week.
He’s a tough call right now because he missed the whole week of practice, and we may not know if Aaron Rodgers will have Aaron Jones at his disposal until after 1pm ET. Rodgers is playing through a painful toe injury, and this week’s assignment is much tougher than the division rival Vikings. I do think there’s a real chance we could see Davante Adams working across from Jalen Ramsey a lot, so I’ve lowered DA expectations this week. Adams put up 9/66/1 receiving on 10 targets against Ramsey and company in the playoffs, and I could see something similar, so he may need to score to come through. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is on the radar as a viable hail mary play now, but Allen Lazard (shoulder) was inactive last week and is back, and the Rams have been stingy downfield, allowing just 11.5 YPR to WRs. If Jones is set to be active when you make your lineup decisions, you have to use him, but they do have a bye next week, so it’s possible they hold him out. That would put A.J. Dillon in business with 20+ touches.
Minnesota Vikings (5-5) at San Francisco 49ers (5-5)
Players I like more than usual: Justin Jefferson, Deebo Samuel, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brandon Aiyuk
Players I’m neutral on: Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook
Players I like less than usual: Tyler Conklin
Longshot Plays:
Notes: With better protection this year, Kirk Cousins is rolling with 21 TDs vs. 2 INTs, which is one of the best TD/INT ratios of all time and speaks to his play. I must admit I’m concerned about a potential Cousins egg-lay on the road. The 49ers are giving up the 12th-most FPG (19.2) to QBs this season, but they’ve been good against Matthew Stafford (243/1 passing) and Trevor Lawrence (158/0) the last two weeks. I’m certainly not panicking, and Justin Jefferson is balling out. Based on how the 49ers play coverage wise, it looks like a Jefferson game over an Adam Thielen game because they are more zone-based, running zone at the sixth-highest rate in the league this year. Jefferson is also a good bet to see a lot of CB Josh Norman, who he can easily roast. Thielen, of course, is not someone most are sitting. He scored his fourth TD in his last five games last week, he’s usually good for 5+ catches and 65+ yards. Thielen may be needed more because it’s a particularly tough matchup for Tyler Conklin, who put up only 3/35 last week. No TE has recorded 40+ yards against the 49ers since the season opener. Dalvin Cook has hit 20+ touches in four of his last five, which is all you can ask for. The 49ers are tough to run on, but they’ve given up the fourth-most rushing TDs per game (.9) to the position.
With their running game in a state of flux with Eli Mtchell’s finger injury, Jimmy Garoppolo looks like a solid play. Garoppolo has two TD passes in three straight, but he’s attempted just 41 passes over the last two weeks. The Vikings are allowing 37 attempts per game the last four weeks, and with an expected total of 50 and a potent Vikings offense on the other side, this could be a surprisingly good fantasy game for both passing games. Jimmy G’s averaging 8.0 YPA or better in four straight with his full cast of receivers, and the Vikings have been ripped for 32+ FP twice in the last three weeks by Aaron Rodgers (385/4 passing) and Lamar Jackson (266/3). They are giving up a very promising 293/2.5 passing per game to QBs the last four weeks. Deebo Samual had season-lows in targets (2), catches (1), and receiving yards (15) last week, yet he still came through with 16.4 FP thanks to season-highs in carries (8) and rushing yards (79) with a rushing TD. Minnesota is giving up the third-most FPG (41.5) to WRs. Deebo could go HAM in this one on Breshad Breeland, who is as beatable as they come at CB right now. Brandon Aiyuk has 20/245/2 on 26 targets over the last four weeks, and the second-most FPG to outside WRs. The Vikings have easily been one of the best teams covering TEs this year, and they are giving up the third-fewest catches per game (3.5) to TEs. George Kittle is rolling with a TD in his first three games back, though, so he’s in your lineup most likely. As for Mitchell, you have to keep track of the news but he seems set to play. The Vikings can be run on and are giving up 4.5 YPC to RBs after A.J. Dillon posted 11/53 rushing last week.
Cleveland Browns (6-5) at Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Players I like more than usual: Devonta Freeman
Players I’m neutral on: Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt
Players I like less than usual: Baker Mayfield, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Jarvis Landry, Rashod Bateman
Longshot Plays:
Notes: He’s all kinds of beat up, so you can’t even consider Baker Mayfield, especially with Jarvis Landry playing through a knee injury that has limited him to just 11/63 receiving on 18 targets in the last three games. Donovan Peoples-Jones is questionable and his status won’t likely be known until gametime, so check the projections on the site, but the rest of their receiving corps is scrub-central and I will not be endorsing anyone. At TE, maybe Austin Hooper if you’re desperate. He does have 4+ catches and 5+ targets in three of his last four, but that’s still not very exciting with David Njoku still involved. The Browns may need Kareem Hunt to play receiver, which does add to his intrigue this week. Hunt had a combined 19/105/1 rushing and 10/86/1 receiving in the two matchups last year and Calais Campbell didn’t practice all week. Nick Chubb usually runs on the Ravens and he managed 27/142/2 rushing and 3/27 receiving in two games against the Ravens last season. You’re using him because Chubb is their best weapon right now.
Lamar Jackson posted a combined 438/4 passing and 169/2 rushing in two matchups against the Browns last season, and he’s averaring 31.2 FPG against the Browns in his last three games. That’s all you need to hear. Marquise Brown is back and will see a lot of Denzel Ward, so he’s merely a WR2 as opposed to a WR1. Hollywood put up 7/151/1 receiving in two games against the Browns last season. I doubt the Ravens will have to throw much in this game, so Rashod Bateman is hardly a great play. Mark Andrews balled out last week with the backup QB and he’s now put up 5+ catches eight times already this year. The Browns are giving up 16.8 FPG to TEs the last four weeks, and that’s a lot. I still don’t see much from Latavius Murray, so Devonta Freeman looks like a damn fine RB2 for now. The Browns have actually given up 21+ FP to individual RBs in four straight games after D’Andre Swift ripped them for 14/136/1 rushing last week.
Seattle Seahawks (3-7) at Washington Football Team (4-6)
Players I like more than usual: Logan Thomas, Antonio Gibson, Tyler Lockett
Players I’m neutral on: JD McKissic, Terry McLaurin, Taylor Heinike, DK Metcalf, Russell Wilson
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: Gerald Everrett, DeeJay Dallas
Notes: His tape has been bad the last two weeks, so I can’t really endorse Russell Wilson as anything more than a desperation play. The Seahawks have scored just one touchdown since Wilson returned to the lineup two weeks ago, and he’s completing just 51.5% of his passes. Washington is giving up by far the most FPG (24.7) to QBs this season after Cam Newton went for 26.2 FP in his first start of the season, so the matchup is at least beatable. I know Wilson is pushing for a late-season run, but that’s likely a pipe dream. D.K. Metcalf should see a lot of William Jackson at CB, and Jackson has played well lately. Mike Evans did post 2/62/1 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago, and Washington is giving up the third-most receiving TDs per game (1.3) to WRs. Tyler Lockett continues to be an all-or-nothing option this season, and Washington is giving up the fourth-most receiving yards per game (181.7) to WRs this season. Gerald Everett is now officially a viable longshot play as he has double-digit FP in three of his five games played with Wilson this season. Seattle’s backfield is a mess, but with Rashaad Penny, Chris Carson, and Travis Homer out, it’s just Alex Collins and DeeJay Dallas, who managed 4/25/1 rushing on a 37% share last week. Washington is giving up the third-fewest rushing yards per game (69.5) and just 3.7 YPC to RBs this season, but I think Dallas is a viable reach play now.
Antonio Gibson has been frustrating, especially last week when he lost about a quarter’s worth of action because he was sat after a fumble. But TFT seems determined to feed Gibson, he has 43 carries the last two weeks with two good gamescripts, which he should get for the third week in a row in this one. Gibson ran angrily last week after his fumble and he averaged 5.0 YPC for the first time since he suffered his stress fracture in his shin around Week 3. Gibson is sixth in the league with 11 carries inside the five-yard line, and James Conner (26/99/1 scrimmage) and A.J. Dillon (23/128/2) have each gone for 20+ FP against the Seahawks since they came out of their bye. All he’ll likely need to come through is a TD or 2-3 catches (they give up 7.8 per game to RBs the last four weeks). J.D. McKissic needs the team to be playing from behind, which is no lock here. The Seahawks are at least giving up the most receiving yards per game (72.6) and the fourth-most catches per game (7.0) to RBs. Taylor Heinicke had a bounceback game last week, and Colt McCoy threw for 328 yards and two TDs for 22.9 FP against the Seahawks last week, so he’s not a bad reach with Terry McLaurin getting 5/103/1 receiving on seven targets against the Panthers. The Seahawks haven’t allowed an opposing WR to reach 20+ FP since Robert Woods did it in Week 5, but this is hardly a shutdown secondary. DeAndre Carter is the only other WR to consider here, but keep in mind Curtis Samuel may actually play, so Carter’s tough to trust. Logan Thomas is obviously risky given his long layoff, but this is a clear TE1 situation for the top guy, and he’ll need to be the top guy with Ricky Seals-Jones likely out. Thomas posted 9.5+ FP in each of his first three full games to open the season, and he ran a route on 93% of Washington’s dropbacks. He could step right back into a huge role and Zach Ertz ripped the Seahawks for 8/88/2 receiving last week. Seattle is now giving up the eighth-most FPG (14.6) to TEs.
