Whether holding a key place in your heart or inconsequential to your experience in the game, the popularity of all of the various formats of fantasy football continues to exponentially expand on an annual basis. And a particular blessing to my way of life is the dynasty format — participation in a dynasty league is an experience in general franchise management.
Are you an expert on the top talent taking the field in 2022? While that understanding will absolutely serve you well to secure the investment placed on your roster will compete for immediate dividends, a full grasping of long-term player development is a must toward ensuring continual success over the lifespan of your league.
One can find countless sources of dyno inspiration littered across the web, some good and some very bad. An approach grounded in process over groupthink investment, marrying film with analytical study is a path to success. One of the trusted tools in the arsenal is a tiered approach toward pre-startup player differentiation. And it is a part of the process that should have its infancy set prior to free agency, the combine, and the NFL Draft. Developing a baseline evaluation of the talent will alleviate some of the overreaction that comes following each event. These tiers will require adjustments as the calendar advances, but this early assortment will set us up to track those adjustments.
Positional Tier Links: QB | RB | TE
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 1 | Justin Jefferson | WR1 | MIN | 22.7 |
| 1 | Ja'Marr Chase | WR2 | CIN | 22.0 |
| 1 | Cooper Kupp | WR3 | LAR | 28.7 |
Tier 1 Notes: Nothing to see here outside of the best-of-the-best in terms of the golden standard for the next generation of future Hall-of-Famers (Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase) and the reigning triple-crown winner (Cooper Kupp). For Kupp, the connection he’s established with Matthew Stafford simply cannot be overlooked at the top of every draft, no matter the format.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 2 | Davante Adams | WR4 | GB | 29.2 |
| 2 | Deebo Samuel | WR5 | SF | 26.1 |
| 2 | A.J. Brown | WR6 | TEN | 24.7 |
| 2 | Tyreek Hill | WR7 | KC | 28.0 |
| 2 | CeeDee Lamb | WR8 | DAL | 22.9 |
| 2 | Jaylen Waddle | WR9 | MIA | 23.3 |
| 2 | Stefon Diggs | WR10 | BUF | 28.3 |
Tier 2 Notes: Should Aaron Rodgers choose to move on, it may be difficult to watch Davante Adams languish with Jordan Love under center. The Packers have stated they would prefer to re-sign Adams rather than using the franchise tag, but the suggestion does seem to indicate they do intend to tag him if contract talks break down. The 2021 usage for Deebo Samuel locks his production down with an almost airtight guarantee no matter who the 49ers have at QB. With the way A.J. Brown closed out the season, a 2022 eruption could be on deck.
He may be set to play his Age 28 season, but Tyreek Hill definitely doesn’t appear to be losing a step. The very same can be said for Stefon Diggs in spite of a decline in production from his monster 2020 campaign. We may be able to get away with a bit of a buy-low on CeeDee Lamb. The issues in Dallas do not appear to be beyond repair. We were provided with an outstanding chance to acquire a 90th-percentile athlete last season when Jaylen Waddle was unable to to test. It sure would be nice if Mike McDaniel kept his praise of Waddle on the down low so we can still scoop him up at a decent value.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 3 | Chris Godwin | WR11 | TB | 26.0 |
| 3 | Gabriel Davis | WR12 | BUF | 22.9 |
| 3 | DK Metcalf | WR13 | SEA | 24.2 |
| 3 | Terry McLaurin | WR14 | WAS | 26.5 |
Tier 3 Notes: Chris Godwin will need a miracle QB addition from the free agent market in order to maintain his current standing. Perhaps Tom Brady’s departure results in Godwin moving on from Tampa Bay. The very first name that pops for most is Gabriel Davis. Playing with the most dangerous QB in the game when opposed by Cover 4 — Josh Allen — Davis’ own standing as one of the top-three Cover 4 wideouts is just eye candy now that he will enter the ‘22 season with Buffalo fully-invested in featuring him. Whether you agree or disagree, his placement as the WR12 should not motivate acquiring him with the same draft capital that some of the names behind him will require to roster in start-ups. Waiting a bit longer on Davis will fly in the majority of drafts since most of the populus hasn’t been acquainted with his abilities just yet.
It stands to reason that chatter has begun on Seattle possibly putting DK Metcalf on the market. Especially since Russell Wilson could be on the move, Rashaad Penny is an unrestricted free agent, and Tyler Lockett is about to eclipse the age of 30. The Seahawks could choose to bring everyone back or to potentially enter full-rebuild mode. Far from the case in Washington, where the Commanders plan to make every effort toward locking in a top QB free agent – potentially Wilson – to pair with a talented O-line. If Washington can get their QB and a high-ceiling WR2 to pair with Terry McLaurin, the playoffs will be fully in view.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 4 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR15 | DET | 22.4 |
| 4 | Garrett Wilson | WR16 | NCAA | 21.6 |
| 4 | Chris Olave | WR17 | NCAA | 21.6 |
| 4 | Jerry Jeudy | WR18 | DEN | 22.9 |
| 4 | Tee Higgins | WR19 | CIN | 23.1 |
| 4 | Michael Pittman Jr. | WR20 | IND | 24.4 |
| 4 | Elijah Moore | WR21 | NYJ | 21.9 |
Tier 4 Notes: Ask yourself, does Amon-Ra St. Brown even need to repeat his second-half explosion in order to be ranked in this tier? Was it all only the product of T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift injuries? First step toward finding that answer, watch your film. ARSB wasn’t simply running circles around practice squad defensive backs. Opponents had the luxury of throwing their very best at St. Brown. It obviously didn’t work. The second step is understanding that less than 10 wide receivers in the history of the NFL accomplished St. Brown’s rookie numbers, and that he did it with very modest production over the first half. Third, think about what ARSB will be able to do when the Lions eventually add a top QB talent.
The real takeaway is how quickly he managed to erupt at the highest level. Far too many condescending opinions regarding St. Brown’s accomplishments floating about. Go ahead, sleep. The rest of us will be more than happy to clean up the mistake. Garrett Wilson is the king of the incoming rookie class against Cover 1. Insignificant? Look at the 15 names listed above him. A massive 87% are among the very elite against single coverage. Only two (Godwin and St. Brown) have established their current standing through exploits facing zone schemes. And zone excellence is exactly where Chris Olave will establish his reputation. That’s not a suggestion that Olave is unable to beat man, he ranks 12th-best in the class at the position – around 65 WRs – in FPs/route against Cover 1. Olave would be an outstanding addition to the zone-heavy defenses found in the AFC West or the North and West divisions of the NFC.
The expectation is that, in addition to being completely recovered from the ankle injury that forced him to miss extended ‘21 time, the Broncos will be providing Jerry Jeudy with a massive upgrade at QB. If Jeudy can simply be gifted with a QB that has the mastery of more than one coverage shell, he will be set up to break new ground. Don’t count on seeing Tee Higgins and the Bengals rest on their laurels after a Super Bowl LVI appearance. All efforts should be pointed toward upgrading that bottom-five O-line. Proper pass protection for Joe Burrow will signal big things for the Cincinnati wideouts.
All signs appear to point toward Carson Wentz looking for his third new home in three seasons. However odd the timing seems, Michael Pittman Jr. could find better days ahead with a different QB. Wentz has been below replacement-level during his career against Cover 3, Pittman’s wheelhouse. The issue in New York could extend into the foreseeable future if Zach Wilson doesn’t apply significant advancements to his game, namely when facing man schemes. Elijah Moore generated video game numbers across from Cover 1 at Ole Miss. Evidence notifying us that we have yet to see the very best out of Moore’s game.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 5 | Keenan Allen | WR22 | LAC | 29.9 |
| 5 | DJ Moore | WR23 | CAR | 24.9 |
| 5 | Chase Claypool | WR24 | PIT | 23.7 |
| 5 | Diontae Johnson | WR25 | PIT | 25.7 |
Tier 5 Notes: After five tiers, Adams and Keenan Allen are the oldest names on the list. Building their reputations through some of the top route-running technique in the game, they both boast the perfect collection of skills to extend their careers five-or-more seasons. DJ Moore needs a QB, badly. Sam Darnold does have some arm talent, but that all disintegrates under pressure. Since the Panthers will need a miracle in order to field a plus O-line, they need more than a QB, they need a QB who’s able to succeed on the move. We want to bet on the talent over the situation – and Moore has plenty of talent, but how long will we need to wait for the Panthers to get their offensive personnel in order?
Pittsburgh is facing a very similar situation to that of Carolina: question mark at QB, subpar O-line. Diontae Johnson was clearly Ben Roethlisberger’s preferred option. Throw that advantage over Chase Claypool out the window. Big Ben had lost all ability to attack downfield. A limitation that played perfectly to Johnson and even Ray-Ray McCloud III’s strengths. Matt Canada hasn’t made any statements to the public known in regards to Roethlisberger’s lack of arm strength stunting the offense, but it’s guaranteed that he has behind closed doors, and precisely why he still has his job. The Steelers badly need a QB with a lively arm to open up their run game
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 6 | Jahan Dotson | WR26 | NCAA | 21.9 |
| 6 | Jameson Williams | WR27 | NCAA | 20.9 |
| 6 | Treylon Burks | WR28 | NCAA | 21.9 |
| 6 | Drake London | WR29 | NCAA | 20.6 |
| 6 | DeVonta Smith | WR30 | PHI | 23.3 |
Tier 6 Notes: We don’t know where they’ll be drafted and we are still waiting on their athletic testing, so the next four wideouts in the class are clumped together with DeVonta Smith. Jahan Dotson and Jameson Williams are ranked ahead of Treylon Burks and Drake London due to the far superior scheme profiles. Dotson and Williams played weakness-free ball in college. Burks is expected to showcase some impressive athleticism in Indianapolis, but his numbers were all over the place at Arkansas.
Burks is as raw as he is an athletic specimen. So much so that London may be further along with his football IQ. If London tests out well, he will be bumped up ahead of Burks. It’s pretty convenient to simply blame Jalen Hurts for DeVonta Smith failing to compete with the best of his ‘21 rookie WR peers. Hurts has work to do, but the same can be said for Smith. Like it or not, Smith had issues dealing with physical corners.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 7 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR31 | ARI | 29.7 |
| 7 | Calvin Ridley | WR32 | ATL | 27.2 |
| 7 | Michael Thomas | WR33 | NO | 29.0 |
| 7 | Mike Evans | WR34 | TB | 28.5 |
| 7 | Amari Cooper | WR35 | DAL | 27.7 |
Tier 7 Notes: The best-of-the-rest-of-the-best veteran tier. Each of the names are really self-explanatory.
Expecting Arizona to function without a hitch sans DeAndre Hopkins was a hopeless endeavor. Nuk is one of the best in the game for a reason. Over the last four games when matchups between the Cardinals and Rams meant something – in other words, removing Week 17 of the ‘20 season when both teams sat their starters, Los Angeles only outscored Arizona 119-to-112. Yes, LAR took three of those four games, but the Cards made them work much harder for their food than when the Rams recently destroyed them 34-11 in the Super Wildcard Round. Hopkins will turn 30 during the ‘22 season. But he has more than enough to push his career to his mid-30’s. Care to guess how long the average career length is for a WR? Less than three seasons.
Most importantly, we all need to provide Calvin Ridley with all of the space he needs while tending to his mental health. If the Falcons welcome him back with open arms — as they should — we should proceed in viewing him as one of the top-10 WRs above the age of 27. To be clear, rank this tier as you like. All five are essentially interchangeable based upon your personal taste. If Atlanta chooses to deal Ridley in order to look ahead to an eventual rebuild, again, we should proceed in viewing him as one of the top-10 WRs above the age of 27. Ridley is a beast of a talent.
Update (3/8/22): With news that Ridley will be suspended for at least the ‘22 season, we can safely drop him out of the first 10 tiers. Beyond that, we all have a difficult decision to make.
While Michael Thomas is entering his Age 29 season, he has only played in nine games the last two seasons. CantGuardMike has plenty to prove after registering one of the finest seasons for a WR in NFL history (‘19) and an equal amount of tread of his tires to get it done. If the Saints succeed in bringing Jameis Winston back, the expectation is that Thomas will greatly outplay his ADP in all formats.
The situation in Tampa Bay will not be one set up for the Buccaneers to succeed if the QB position is not addressed. Count on seeing the worst season of Mike Evans’ career if TB is forced to hand the keys to the offense to Kyle Trask. But that is a scenario that Tampa Bay would likely only be able to stomach for one season. Like the others in Tier 7, Evans’ career will extend well beyond any longevity concerns. Losing one season of optimal production should not sour his dyno expectations.
Amari Cooper had better come out firing on all cylinders, extending that level of play throughout the ‘22 season. During a radio appearance in late January, Jerry Jones had this to say about Cooper’s impact during the ‘21 season after signing a five-year $100 million contract extension in March of ‘20:
“I don’t have any comment on Cooper’s contract. I thought that the way we were playing early, when we did make something happen, I thought Cooper had a big part of it. And I’m not being trite. But how he fits in, he should take half the field with him when he runs a route. Not half – that’s an exaggeration, of course, but a whole bunch of that defense ought to have to honor Cooper. And he ought to be able to catch it in the middle of when they’re going with him. Others do. You throw to people that are covered all the time in the NFL. You have to.”
While constructing Cooper’s contract, they expertly built an out-clause after the ‘21 season. If Dallas chooses to release him prior to March 20th, the move would only leave a $6 million dead cap hit on the books in ‘22, $4 million in ‘23 and $2 million in 2024. For comparison’s sake, if the ‘Boys were to release Ezekiel Elliott right now, they would eat a nearly $83 million dead cap hit. What does that really mean? Cooper is essentially an RFA at the moment. And the chances that he might be a Cowboy in ‘22 are actually not that great since Dallas is currently over $21 million over the cap for ‘22. Either way, Cooper is not going to have any trouble finding a new home and carries WR1 upside.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 8 | Mike Williams | WR36 | LAC | 27.4 |
| 8 | Darnell Mooney | WR37 | CHI | 24.4 |
| 8 | Marquise Brown | WR38 | BAL | 24.8 |
| 8 | Tyler Lockett | WR39 | SEA | 29.4 |
| 8 | Brandon Aiyuk | WR40 | SF | 24.0 |
Tier 8 Notes: Mike Williams leads off Tier 8 since I feel that, while he is very close to earning Tier 7 status, eliminating those two-to-three reception, sub-50 yardage outings would seal the deal. Then we come to Tyler Lockett at WR39. We have no signs to indicate the Lockett Rocket is losing a step. But we do have some seriously concerning signs that Seattle could be heading into a full-on rebuild. Even if the ‘Hawks manage to keep the roster intact sans Russell Wilson, that’s more than enough of a basement-floor concern for Lockett’s immediate future. Who really knows, perhaps Seattle brings everybody back. And that’s precisely the range of scenario envisioning we need to shuffle through in a dyno format.
Darnell Mooney – aptly nicknamed The Roadrunner by John Hansen – and Marquise Brown offer game-changing WR2 tools, but have been thrust into WR1 go-to’s out of necessity. The Bears simply must be in the market for one of the top WRs in the draft – Chris Olave would be an absolute monster fit, re-teaming him with Justin Fields. Olave may not fit the mold of a 6-foot-5-ish WR1, but the expectation is that he’ll run in the 4.3s. Combining the evidence as the top zone WR in the class and 4.3-speed would go quite nicely with Soldier Fields’ abilities and Mooney’s own 4.3-speed. That alone would prevent opposing safeties from loading the box.
Hollywood may already have the future WR1 candidate on the roster in Rashod Bateman to maximize spacing between his own 4.3-speed and the safeties over the top. We saw a glimpse of what Brown could accomplish early in the ‘21 season, Lamar Jackson simply needs to keep himself off the trainer’s table. Playing in Kyle Shanahan’s play action-heavy system, Brandon Aiyuk has the pleasure of the presence of both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. While the 14th-highest play action rate may not seem to fit the “heavy” terminology, it’s a statistic clouded by the second-highest rushing rate. At any rate, while Aiyuk is equipped with some impressive tools, the 49ers pass at the second-lowest rate, and he is third in the pecking order for targets.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 9 | Rashod Bateman | WR41 | BAL | 22.3 |
| 9 | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR42 | NCAA | 21.1 |
| 9 | Kadarius Toney | WR43 | NYG | 23.1 |
| 9 | George Pickens | WR44 | NCAA | 21.0 |
| 9 | David Bell | WR45 | NCAA | 21.2 |
| 9 | John Metchie III | WR46 | NCAA | 21.6 |
| 9 | Justyn Ross | WR47 | NCAA | 22.2 |
Tier 9 Notes: Rashod Bateman is another WR carrying the burden of being the third option in a run-heavy system. The advantage held by Bateman is that we were witness to considerable growth by the end of Year 1, but without the services of LJax. His best days are certainly ahead. The rest of this tier is simply loaded with potential. Wan'Dale Robinson obliterated the SEC with 104 receptions and 1,342 yards last season after transferring to Kentucky from Nebraska. Robinson was the second-most accomplished in the class against Cover 1 during his career. In addition, he was a top-10 performer against Cover 3, top-five against Cover 6, and no other WR in the class drew a target rate as high as Wan’Dale when on the field. Get very excited for his arrival. At this stage in the evaluation process, Robinson appears to be the ‘22 version of Elijah Moore.
Don’t take this placement for Kadarius Toney as an indication that his star has diminished in shine. On the positive side, new HC Brian Daboll should have the NYG faithful beside themselves in excitement. Do not discount the hand he played as OC in turning the Buffalo offense into the most dangerous juggernaut in the league. On the sloping decline of the mountain, it will take a good amount of time for the changes to take root, the O-line is one of the worst in the NFL, and the jury is still out on Daniel Jones. George Pickens entered the ‘21 season atop many a Devy rankings. He proceeded to tear an ACL during spring practices and finished the campaign with a 5/107/0 receiving line. However, at 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, combined with his coverage scheme profile, Pickens has the potential to grow into an A.J. Brown type of receiver. Yes, the implications of such a comp are entirely understood.
David Bell was the Purdue offense last season. Completely barren of a running game, the Boilermakers relied on Bell to fuel their attack. When Bell had a bad day — a seldom occurrence — Purdue’s offense struggled. Bell gracefully emerged during the ‘19 season after Rondale Moore was lost for the season. The rest is history. All signs seemed to point to John Metchie III emerging as the frontrunner to be the WR1 for Alabama after the graduation of DeVonta Smith. A 96/1,142/8 total line being far from a disappointing season, we all know it was Jameson Williams that would capture the WR1 honors. Metchie may not possess the blazing speed of Williams, from Taiwan to Ghana to Canada to New Jersey to Alabama, Metchie has been a football success at every level.
The final entry in the tier, Justyn Ross blew up during the College Football Playoffs with a combined 12/301/3 line as a true freshman. His 6/153/1 performance in the title game aided the Tigers toward the championship over the Crimson Tide and, in storybook fashion, after being the first No. 1 rated player in the state of Alabama to sign with Clemson. A back injury derailed Ross’ career, with surgery forcing him to miss the ‘20 season. Led Clemson in catches and yardage before an ankle injury forced him out of action for the final three games. Ross concluded his career ranked in the top-five in FPs/route across from Cover 1, 2 and 3. If not for the injuries, Ross would be in contention to be one of the top-three WRs off the board.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 10 | Brandin Cooks | WR48 | HOU | 28.4 |
| 10 | Hunter Renfrow | WR49 | LV | 26.2 |
| 10 | Tyler Boyd | WR50 | CIN | 27.3 |
| 10 | Courtland Sutton | WR51 | DEN | 26.4 |
| 10 | Robert Woods | WR52 | LAR | 29.9 |
Tier 10 Notes: Plenty of seasons of value ahead for Brandin Cooks and the only way for the quality of the Houston offense to go is up. That will be particularly true if Davis Mills continues to shine. With that in mind, the singular threat to Cooks is the same factor that would assist the franchise: adding a quality wideout/s that would undercut Cooks’ targeting floor. Do not get cozy at the thought of Hunter Renfrow being around late in your re-drafts like in year’s past. Derek Carr is set to sign another lucrative contract with Las Vegas and the new coaching brass will no doubt devote ample resources toward improving a defective O-line. Renfrow’s stock will continue to rise.
Perhaps the most difficult player to rank/tier among all WRs, this current home for Tyler Boyd will likely need to be revisited. Like Renfrow, any improvements made to a substandard O-line will spell out superior numbers for Boyd. This issue for Courtland Sutton in Denver is certainly not with the O-line, he simply needs someone capable of delivering the damn football. The time is now to buy-low on a mammoth deep threat with a massive ceiling.
It certainly appears the odds are against Odell Beckham Jr. re-signing with the Rams. Why? Los Angeles will have the luxury of a returning Robert Woods to allow the offense to proceed without a single hiccup. Bobby Trees may not have enjoyed the offensive explosion with Matthew Stafford under center enjoyed by Cooper Kupp, but the potential for Woods to take off is certainly in place.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 11 | Michael Gallup | WR53 | DAL | 26.0 |
| 11 | Corey Davis | WR54 | NYJ | 27.2 |
| 11 | Russell Gage | WR55 | ATL | 26.1 |
| 11 | D.J. Chark Jr. | WR57 | JAX | 25.5 |
| 11 | Jakobi Meyers | WR58 | NE | 25.3 |
| 11 | Christian Kirk | WR59 | ARI | 25.3 |
| 11 | Curtis Samuel | WR60 | WAS | 25.6 |
| 11 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR56 | PIT | 25.3 |
Tier 11 Notes: It does sound as though the Cowboys will make every effort to re-sign UFA Michael Gallup. Dallas’ efforts may benefit from the fact that Gallup is currently rehabilitating from a torn ACL. The offense certainly seemed to benefit from Gallup’s presence after missing seven games early in the season. Like Elijah Moore, Corey Davis’ immediate and future success will entirely depend on the development of Zach Wilson. While Wilson certainly possesses some plus traits, everything is riding on Wilson working around the clock on his deficiencies.
A gaping hole in the offense surfaced when Calvin Ridley was lost for the season while tending to his mental wellness. Upon returning from an early-season ankle injury, Russell Gage emerged to capitalize on the opportunity, averaging 6.3 receptions, 76.4 yards, 0.4 TDs and 16.4 FPG over the final eight games. While Gage proved he’s capable of helping the Atlanta offense as the WR1, reverting back to WR2 status should only net positive statistical results. For the record, D.J. Chark Jr. has played 17 and missed 16 games due to injury over the last two seasons. It’s berthed an overly-frustrating situation for all invested, including Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence desperately needs the few quality offensive weapons active to put a miserable rookie season in the rearview.
It’s been well documented that Mac Jones is vertically-challenged. However, at the short-to-intermediate range, Jones may be on the verge of joining the best in the business. That’s an outstanding set of circumstances for Jakobi Meyers’ dyno future. Even if Arizona moves on from A.J. Green, we have the evidence in place from Nuk’s ‘21 absences to know that the team did not view Christian Kirk as a perimeter option. The Cards play a 10-personnel rate that has only been approached by the Bills during Kliff Kingsbury’s tenure. However, Kirk is also entering his first opportunity to test the free agent waters as an UFA. A change of scenery may be exactly what the doctor ordered.
Perhaps no player signed from the free agent market disappointed his new team more than Curtis Samuel. The variables that led to that outlook were completely out of his control. As a multidimensional tool with 4.3-speed, Samuel is the definition of buy-low. Should Washington prove to be true to their word in pursuing their QB-of-the-present-and-future, perhaps they will discover they had a WR2 candidate much closer than they realized. JuJu Smith-Schuster had everything working in his favor until his development simply stalled. All of the evidence in agreement with that fact was provided by zero franchises extending JJSS an offer as a 24-year-old UFA last offseason.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 12 | Odell Beckham Jr. | WR61 | LAR | 29.3 |
| 12 | Allen Robinson II | WR62 | CHI | 28.5 |
| 12 | Adam Thielen | WR63 | MIN | 31.5 |
| 12 | Will Fuller V | WR64 | MIA | 27.9 |
| 12 | Kenny Golladay | WR65 | NYG | 28.3 |
| 12 | Byron Pringle | WR66 | KC | 28.2 |
Tier 12 Notes: This tier brings together several of the top UFA WRs on the market. An ill-timed ACL tear tossed what could’ve been a great opportunity for one final payday for Odell Beckham Jr. into some murky waters. He succeeded in bringing home his first Super Bowl ring, but OBJ likely lost out on millions in the process. Flip a coin. That’s the extent of your chances of bringing home proper value for the capital it’ll require to acquire.
Perhaps it just appeared that way, but it sure as hell seemed as though Allen Robinson II quit on the Bears. Robinson earned nearly $18 million last season in return for a 38/410/1 line. Are you entertained? Far from it.
We might have seen something similar in Miami where Will Fuller V didn’t play a single down in return for his $10.5 million in earnings. The one piece of evidence in favor of Fuller is that he really didn’t have a reason to punish the Dolphins for believing in his talents. Fuller convinced Miami he could not take the field all season due to a mysterious finger injury. With a history of absences due to hamstring ailments, Fuller is likely to be met by a lukewarm market. In all fairness, Fuller owes it to the ‘Phins to sign a team-friendly contract to rehabilitate his reputation. With his 4.3-speed, Fuller is a weekly threat to blow up.
From practice squadder to WR2, Byron Pringle has developed into quite a threat. With plenty of free agent issues elsewhere, Pringle may have played himself out of re-signing a contract in KC. Adam Thielen and Kenny Golladay are not free agents. They both have some big money headed their way over the next couple seasons. Are we seeing Thielen’s age catch up to him or just some terrible luck? My money is on the latter. Thielen is such a dangerous weapon with Kirk Cousins at QB. Golladay really struck out while calculating the trade-off from working with Matthew Stafford to Daniel Jones. Yes, the market didn’t quite take off for Golladay last offseason, but it was quite the miscalculation. Golladay will have everything riding on Brian Daboll getting the G-Men’s offense back on track.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 13 | Rondale Moore | WR67 | ARI | 21.7 |
| 13 | Laviska Shenault Jr. | WR68 | JAX | 23.4 |
| 13 | Van Jefferson Jr. | WR69 | LAR | 25.6 |
| 13 | Josh Palmer | WR70 | LAC | 22.5 |
| 13 | Christian Watson | WR71 | NCAA | 22.8 |
| 13 | Jalen Tolbert | WR72 | NCAA | 23.0 |
| 13 | Terrace Marshall Jr. | WR73 | CAR | 21.7 |
| 13 | Nico Collins | WR74 | HOU | 23.0 |
| 13 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | WR75 | CLE | 23.0 |
Tier 13 Notes: Looking for the next big thing without devoting priceless capital? This solid tier may hold the answer. Rondale Moore’s rookie season stands as a bust. Even worse is that we are already seeing those soft tissue ailments pop up that derailed his Purdue career. Nothing went right for Jacksonville over the course of the ‘21 season and the same can be said for Laviska Shenault Jr. Drafting Shenault should have been followed up by creative play calling. Perhaps Doug Pederson will get Shenault’s career back on track.
The son of a former NFL WR, Van Jefferson Jr. collected a Super Bowl ring and the birth of his first-born son on the same night. Count on seeing another Jefferson on an NFL football field in 20 years. With Matthew Stafford’s arm talent at QB, Jefferson is afforded priceless experience working with one the best in the game. If the Chargers are unable to re-sign Mike Williams, Josh Palmer’s dyno value will blow up. The time is nigh to invest. Christian Watson was the talk of Senior Bowl practices. He topped this stacked WR class with 4.33 YPRR this past season. However, nearly all of that production was gathered facing Cover 4 and 6. A black hole exists where his production should be across from Cover 1, 2 and 3 – in other words, he needs a lot of work.
Jalen Tolbert put together big back-to-back seasons. At 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds, Tolbert could make a ton of noise with strong Combine testing. No highly-touted rookie face-planted to the level suffered by Terrace Marshall Jr. last season. To be fair, Marshall also suffered through some of the worst QB play in the league. Everyone on the Panthers’ offense will be hoping for the QB upgrade it desperately needs to compete. As expected, Nico Collins put examples of his mouth-watering athleticism on tape, but failed to show anything resembling consistency. Donovan Peoples-Jones possesses all of the intangibles and he’s an excellent fit with Baker Mayfield’s strengths. What DPJ needs more than anything is for Mayfield to eliminate making all of the excuses, and to put the ball into his hands with regularity.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 14 | Jarvis Landry | WR76 | CLE | 29.3 |
| 14 | Braxton Berrios | WR77 | NYJ | 26.3 |
| 14 | Mecole Hardman | WR78 | KC | 24.0 |
| 14 | DeVante Parker | WR79 | MIA | 29.1 |
| 14 | Marquez Callaway | WR80 | NO | 24.1 |
| 14 | Kendrick Bourne | WR81 | NE | 26.5 |
| 14 | K.J. Osborn | WR82 | MIN | 24.7 |
Tier 14 Notes: Speaking of Cleveland, are they going to invest in bringing Jarvis Landry back? If not, they better have a plan in place since Landry was far from a luxury. The Jets may balk at Braxton Berrios’ asking price, but the kid is simply looking for market value for his impressive play as a receiver and returner. If NYJ refuses to match his demands, Berrios will have little trouble landing that contract elsewhere.
Mecole Hardman will enter ‘22 in a contract year. Guess what? He’s failed in all regards toward securing another contract with the Chiefs. Outplayed by Byron Pringle and still struggling to move up in the pecking order. It was comical watching Hardman’s sideline tirade complaining for more touches during Kansas City’s home loss to Cincinnati in the Conference Championship. Does Hardman really think he’s earned that right? Far from it.
Miami actually has DeVante Parker under contract at a relative bargain over the next two seasons. The issues with the offense are not tied to Parker – or Tua Tagovailoa, for that matter. The success of the Dolphins’ offense will hinge on management’s ability to bolster the O-line. If the reports are true, the Saints will make every effort to enter ‘22 with Jameis Winston under center. If New Orleans also benefits from the healthy return of Michael Thomas, a Marquez Callaway under the WR2 moniker would work better on multiple levels. As hard as it may be to believe, the Saints have all of the WR talent on the current roster to compete. They just need them all on the field at the same time.
Kendrick Bourne took a big step forward last season, firmly establishing himself as the go-to on the outside. The nearly $15 million cap hit invested into Nelson Agholor is a complete joke. Bill Belichick, that is one example where you sorely missed the mark as GM. Emerging from the Adam Thielen injury, K.J. Osborn proved himself as a solid contributor in the slot, as well as on the outside. With two seasons remaining on his rookie contract, the Vikings are completely established at WR for at least the next two seasons.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 15 | Quintez Cephus | WR83 | DET | 24.2 |
| 15 | Jauan Jennings | WR84 | SF | 24.6 |
| 15 | Isaiah McKenzie | WR85 | BUF | 26.9 |
| 15 | Deonte Harris | WR86 | NO | 24.2 |
| 15 | KJ Hamler | WR87 | DEN | 22.7 |
| 15 | D'Wayne Eskridge | WR88 | SEA | 25.0 |
| 15 | Dyami Brown | WR89 | WAS | 22.3 |
| 15 | Allen Lazard | WR90 | GB | 26.1 |
Tier 15 Notes: Strike out finding a breakout from Tier 13? This and the next tier should take center stage. A healthy Quintez Cephus would have made a world of a difference for the Lions’ offense, especially after T.J. Hockenson went on IR. Detroit appears dedicated toward adding another perimeter threat to the equation through the draft. If they succeed in adding a WR with Cover 1 skills, i.e., Garrett Wilson, George Pickens, Justyn Ross, etc., the offense will advance to another level.
The main question surrounding the San Francisco offense is the individual that will be under center in Week 1. It will certainly process outside of expectation if Kyle Shanahan invested in Trey Lance without knowledge of the viability for his readiness in time for Week 1 of ‘22 the 49ers ultimately re-up with Jimmy Garappolo. By the way, NO, Adam Shefter, your blanket statement is incorrect. Most of us were well aware that Lance was a raw prospect. The overriding belief was based in the faith that Shanahan had an understanding of the player he wanted to draft. No matter who is leading the offense, Jauan Jennings is the future inside for the ’9ers.
Fingers are crossed throughout Orchard Park that the Bills succeed in re-signing Isaiah McKenzie. His late-season success alongside Gabriel Davis flipped the switch for an offense ownership previously voiced its concerns. Emmanuel Sanders appears to be on the way out, possibly close to announcing his retirement. With cap concerns in Buffalo, a line appears close to being drawn in the sand: either McKenzie or Cole Beasley. With nearly six years his junior and plenty of ‘21 evidence to his advantage, Lil Dirty (McKenzie) would seem to be the optimal investment.
In addition to Michael Thomas and Marquez Callaway, the Saints also have the luxury of bringing Deonte Harris – soon to be Deonte Harty – back into the fold as an RFA. As stated earlier, New Orleans already has all of the WR talent they require on the current roster. KJ Hamler, D'Wayne Eskridge and Dyami Brown each need further development and avoid injury in the process. All three have seen the injury bug eat into various levels of their growth. Allen Lazard is on par with McKenzie in terms of development, but would see the floor cut from underneath his feet should Aaron Rodgers take his talents elsewhere.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 16 | Quez Watkins | WR91 | PHI | 23.8 |
| 16 | Cyril Grayson | WR92 | TB | 28.2 |
| 16 | Cedrick Wilson Jr. | WR93 | DAL | 26.2 |
| 16 | Jalen Guyton | WR94 | LAC | 24.9 |
| 16 | Parris Campbell | WR95 | IND | 24.6 |
| 16 | Darius Slayton | WR96 | NYG | 25.1 |
| 16 | Bryan Edwards | WR97 | LV | 23.3 |
| 16 | Jaelon Darden | WR98 | TB | 23.3 |
Tier 16 Notes: We will need to see everyone in this tier take a big step forward in order to earn their dyno roster slot. While Quez Watkins may not yet have the NFL results, he does possess the impossible-to-teach 4.3-speed that will grant him plenty of time to advance his game. Cyril Grayson fits that exact profile to the letter, only lacking in Watkins’ youth. But it’s important to remember that Grayson earned a starting role on the outside, and could become a very rare late-20’s breakout if the Bucs succeed in acquiring an elite QB. If Amari Cooper and/or Michael Gallup depart Big D, Cedrick Wilson Jr. is going to take on a highly-coveted role as the Cowboys’ starting slot. If Mike Williams moves on from the Chargers, it’s very possible that LAC adds one of the talented WRs in the class. However, that’s really the case for all 32 teams. With that reality in mind, Jalen Guyton would definitely benefit from Williams’ departure.
It’s amazing that Parris Campbell is still under the age of 25. The upgrade at QB the Colts are intent on adding would obviously be to the benefit of Campbell, but what the kid needs more than anything is some luck on the injury front. At this point, Darius Slayton is likely going to enter the ‘23 offseason as a UFA. Perhaps it’ll be for the best. Mark this down: if Slayton were to end up on the roster with one of the top Cover 1 QBs, i.e., Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow, etc., Slayton’s career would take off. Bryan Edwards has youth and the appearance of an athletic specimen on his side. Working against him is a growing sample of production failure under QB about to put ink-to-paper on a new contract – Derek Carr. The suddenness of Jaelon Darden’s lateral agility is beyond impressive. Like the rest of Tampa Bay’s receivers, the immediate future hinges on the QB situation.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 17 | Tutu Atwell | WR99 | LAR | 22.4 |
| 17 | Anthony Schwartz | WR100 | CLE | 21.5 |
| 17 | Marquez Stevenson | WR101 | BUF | 23.9 |
| 17 | Jalen Reagor | WR102 | PHI | 23.2 |
| 17 | N'Keal Harry | WR103 | NE | 24.2 |
| 17 | Denzel Mims | WR104 | NYJ | 24.4 |
| 17 | Amari Rodgers | WR105 | GB | 22.5 |
Tier 17 Notes: The top of this tier is built on speed. Tutu Atwell missed out on helping his team take home the title. And the Rams could certainly have used his blazing speed after losing OBJ in the Super Bowl. Sean McVay never drafts a player that he doesn’t fully intend to put on the field, even the ones he selects at the end of the draft. Atwell was drafted in the second round, he will have a big role awaiting him this season. The Browns have no choice but to do the same with Anthony Schwartz. His world-class speed is going to be a real problem if he learns to match it with precision route-running. Do not forget about Marquez Stevenson. If Manny Sanders retires and either Isaiah McKenzie or Cole Beasley are not brought back, Stevenson would be the frontrunner to land a desirable role on the top offense in the league.
The remainder of this tier are individuals who were acquired with an early pick, but have failed to live up to the billing. N'Keal Harry saw the opportunity for a Year 3 breakout pass him by. Some of the blame can be directed elsewhere, the rest is entirely on him. Harry will need a change of scenery to find a team that will actually invest in his development and put him on the field. A Year 3 breakout is still on the table for Jalen Reagor and Denzel Mims. Reagor really missed the mark last season as one of the least efficient WRs in the league. With the Jets eliminating a massive portion of their playbook due to Zach Wilson’s deficiencies, as a vertical threat, Mims simply cannot be blamed for his disappointing season. Amari Rodgers really struggled to get on the same page with Aaron Rodgers. Functional strength and quickness are to his benefit, failing to succeed with the reigning back-to-back MVP is his curse. Things will get worse before they get any better if Jordan Love is at QB.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 18 | Jerreth Sterns | WR106 | NCAA | 22.7 |
| 18 | Skyy Moore | WR107 | NCAA | 21.4 |
| 18 | Khalil Shakir | WR108 | NCAA | 22.0 |
| 18 | Danny Gray | WR109 | NCAA | 22.9 |
| 18 | Jaquarii Roberson | WR110 | NCAA | 23.5 |
| 18 | Corey Sutton | WR111 | NCAA | 24.3 |
| 18 | Calvin Austin III | WR112 | NCAA | 22.9 |
| 18 | Deven Thompkins | WR113 | NCAA | 21.7 |
| 18 | Makai Polk | WR114 | NCAA | 20.5 |
Tier 18 Notes: Dipping into the draft prospect ranks, we have the next best the Group of Five (G5) has to offer after Christian Watson and Jalen Tolbert: Jerreth Sterns (Western Kentucky), Skyy Moore (Western Michigan) and Khalil Shakir (Boise State). Sterns blew up playing for the Hilltoppers after relocating his talents alongside Bailey Zappe from Houston Baptist. Does Conference USA opposition guarantee NFL success? Far from it. You want guarantees? Keep those expectations confined to the first 14 tiers.
Investing in Power Five (P5) talent returns far greater promise than tapping into the G5 prospect ranks. But that should not dissuade dyno aficionados from taking chances from the best that the G5 has to offer. Especially when the P5 talent has been picked over. With the MAC’s ‘20 season cut to only five games due to COVID, Moore posted at least seven catches in nine-of-13 games, at least 100 yards in seven and scored 10 TDs. He posted a 10/123/1 line against Pittsburgh in Week 2 and went nuclear for a 12/206/4 line against NIU in Week 13. The expectation is that Moore will run a 40-time in the 4.4s. That would be fast enough to establish a nice career at the next level. Moore may have only played around a third of his snaps in the slot in ‘21, but his future will be spent in the slot.
As with Chris Olave and Treylon Burks, we are going to see Shakir test far superior to the athletic numbers registered in high school at The Opening Invitational. A zone-specialist with plenty of potential across from man, Shakir scored 13 TDs in 19 games the last two seasons. This loaded WR class will deposit much-needed talent on the outside. Among the top-13 WRs in the current ranks, only Treylon Burks and Wan’Dale Robinson will spend their careers on the inside. Just as with Sterns and Moore, Shakir will continue to do his work out of the slot. And all three G5 prospects will have everything riding on their athletic testing to avoid entering the NFL as a UDFA. But Moore, Shakir, Danny Gray and Calvin Austin III will have the advantage of testing on a national stage in Indianapolis at the Combine. Sterns and Deven Thompkins will need to lure their NFL attention at their respective Pro Days.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 19 | Julio Jones | WR115 | TEN | 33.2 |
| 19 | Sterling Shepard | WR116 | NYG | 29.1 |
| 19 | Jamison Crowder | WR117 | NYJ | 28.7 |
| 19 | Tim Patrick | WR118 | DEN | 28.3 |
| 19 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR119 | GB | 27.4 |
| 19 | Josh Reynolds | WR120 | DET | 26.9 |
| 19 | Laquon Treadwell | WR121 | JAX | 26.9 |
| 19 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR122 | TEN | 24.9 |
| 19 | Tylan Wallace | WR123 | BAL | 22.8 |
Tier 19 Notes: Could it be true? Has Julio Jones really seen his career decline all the way down to a Tier 19 placement? First of all, let’s address the obvious, Julio will turn 34 during the ‘22 season. Projecting a WR to create fantasy usefulness beyond the age of 35 is not the best approach. For those able to keep their bodies healthy, contributing useful numbers beyond 35 is not out of the question – remember Jerry Rice played until the age of 42 and generated a 92/1,211/7 during his Age 40 season. Jones has not been as lucky.
If Sterling Shepard even returns to play a single game during the ‘22 season, it should be counted as a victory. The road back to football from an Achilles rupture at his age is going to be a challenge. Once he does manage to make it back, Shepard will likely need to learn a new playbook on a new team and secure a workload to help our rosters. This placement for Jamison Crowder could turn out to be a great value if he lands a multi-year deal with a top offense. Tim Patrick could be entering a contract year since Denver can void the remaining two years on his contract, albeit with $20 million in dead cap money split between ‘23 and ‘24. Patrick could also manufacture a career year if the Broncos sign an elite QB.
The window for Marquez Valdez-Scantling to blow up appears to be closing. He will not suddenly become a fantasy stud without Aaron Rodgers, and he never approached that label with him. Josh Reynolds actually played decent ball the second half of the season for the Lions. Should he sign another pact, the path to a starting role is going to be difficult with Detroit aiming to draft an outside WR and with Quintez Cephus expected to claim one of the jobs. Even if all hands are on deck for Jacksonville, it would be criminal if the Jags do not bring Laquon Treadwell back. He came out of nowhere to be the most consistent WR on the team last season.
The Titans need to add some WR talent to the rotation… that is, after they finish bolstering an O-line in need of a massive upgrade. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine emerged as a reliable target, with his efficiency holding strong when asked to work inside or on the perimeter. Tylan Wallace never managed to break into the rotation. With some of the top run blocking talent from the ‘21 WR class, it’s possible that the Ravens reduced his role when both JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards were lost to ACL tears. He’ll have his work cut out for him to break into the current rotation with Hollywood, Bateman and Devin Duvernay – one of the returners in the game – ahead of him. But we want to invest in the talent and Wallace put together some impressive tape at Oklahoma State.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 20 | Britain Covey | WR124 | NCAA | 24.9 |
| 20 | Reggie Roberson Jr. | WR125 | NCAA | 24.9 |
| 20 | Dai'Jean Dixon | WR126 | NCAA | 23.3 |
| 20 | Alec Pierce | WR127 | NCAA | 21.8 |
| 20 | Erik Ezukanma | WR128 | NCAA | 22.1 |
| 20 | Josh Johnson | WR129 | NCAA | 22.4 |
| 20 | Romeo Doubs | WR130 | NCAA | 21.9 |
| 20 | Jaivon Heiligh | WR131 | NCAA | 22.5 |
| 20 | Samori Toure | WR132 | NCAA | 23.9 |
| 20 | Shi Smith | WR133 | CAR | 23.4 |
| 20 | Ihmir Smith-Marsette | WR134 | MIN | 21.9 |
Tier 20 Notes: If Britain Covey and Reggie Roberson Jr. weren’t about to turn 25, they would both have been listed in Tier 18. While his film study will confirm the suspicion, Dai'Jean Dixon put up some insane numbers against Cover 3 during his career. Since Cover 3 is the most used scheme in the NFL, that specialty is going to serve him quite well. Alec Pierce played in a run-heavy system and with a QB (Desmond Ridder) that spread the ball around. But Pierce has the size and perceived athleticism deserving of some attention.
As the WR1 for a Coastal Carolina team that’s essentially dominated G5 competition, Jaivon Heiligh accumulated quite the resume. Like Samori Toure, they’ll both be at the mercy of the NFL teams in attendance at their respective Pro Days. All investments from Tier 20 and below will either amount to the final rounds of your draft or the dart throw rounds of very deep leagues. Shi Smith and Ihmir Smith-Marsette are young, athletic and play on rosters with room for upward advancement. Particulars that are perfectly suited at that stage of a start-up.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 21 | Tyler Johnson | WR135 | TB | 23.6 |
| 21 | James Washington | WR136 | PIT | 25.9 |
| 21 | Cole Beasley | WR137 | BUF | 32.9 |
| 21 | Marvin Jones Jr. | WR138 | JAX | 32.0 |
| 21 | Robby Anderson | WR139 | CAR | 28.8 |
Tier 21 Notes: Perhaps the light will eventually turn on for Tyler Johnson and James Washington. Until then, they make it difficult to devote anything more than late-round capital. Cole Beasley and Marvin Jones Jr. are facing the finishing stages of their careers and Robby Anderson signed a two-year, $29.5 million extension in August of ‘21. It stands as some of the worst cap expenditures in recent history – considering the three-year, $16.5 million deal they just gave Ian Thomas makes you wonder, what are the Panthers doing? Mr. David Tepper, when you start the search for your next GM – it will be very soon – and want someone in place that will properly manage your cap investments, come and get me.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 22 | Devin Duvernay | WR140 | BAL | 24.4 |
| 22 | Demetric Felton | WR141 | CLE | 23.6 |
| 22 | Lynn Bowden Jr. | WR142 | MIA | 24.3 |
| 22 | Kristian Wilkerson | WR143 | NE | 25.1 |
| 22 | Zay Jones | WR144 | LV | 26.9 |
| 22 | Bennett Skowronek | WR145 | LAR | 24.7 |
| 22 | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | WR146 | NO | 23.9 |
Tier 22 Notes: This is the point in your draft where you are literally tossing blind darts.
| Tier | Player | Pos. Rank | Team | Age |
| 23 | Bo Melton | WR147 | NCAA | 22.8 |
| 23 | Kyle Philips | WR148 | NCAA | 22.7 |
| 23 | Ty Fryfogle | WR149 | NCAA | 23.1 |
| 23 | Calvin Turner Jr. | WR150 | NCAA | 22.6 |
| 23 | Dontario Drummond | WR151 | NCAA | 24.5 |
| 23 | Jalen Nailor | WR152 | NCAA | 23.0 |
| 23 | Braylon Sanders | WR153 | NCAA | 23.1 |
Tier 23 Notes: Same deal, the last of the draft prospects worth consideration.
