Early every NFL in-season Tuesday morning, our grind begins with a collection of the previous week’s statistics. Even if your spreadsheets are perfectly constructed, only requiring a plug-in of the numbers, the process can take a full day to complete. That stretch of time is easily duplicated for those, like me, who operate within the world of college football.
Guess what? It’s Thursday morning, the first NFL matchup of the new week is merely hours away, and we’ve yet to even begin evaluating the matchups. Since we have every intention of getting our entries constructed, submitted into each of the early offerings from our favorite DFS platforms, there simply must be steps we can take early on to jump ahead of the curve. Lucky enough for us, we can take several steps during the offseason to reduce the amount of prep work to complete on those hectic Thursdays.
Short of direct plug-and-play of the numbers from our data providers, there’s nothing we can do about the statistical collection process. But I actually value that process. It’s an opportunity for me to catch many of the performances I’ve unintentionally overlooked from the previous week. However, since we have already been provided with the entire 18-week NFL schedule, nothing stands in our way from taking a deep dive into the individual coverage matchups. Not to be confused with a general strength of schedule review, this series will identify the individual passing game contributors facing either the most explosive or least appealing matchups throughout the season. If your desire is a big-picture review of schedule strength, you will find an outstanding, thorough breakdown of each position based upon determined strength of schedule provided by Scott Barrett inside the following links: QB | RB | WR | TE.
The Basic Approach
The first order of business is accounting for the defensive coordinator (DC) turnover. A massive 44% of the DCs from last season have been replaced. Seven (22%) were forced out, four (13%) were lured to positions on new teams, and three (9%) voluntarily resigned or retired. For those teams hiring new DCs, we will need to wait until the first few weeks of the season have been played before we can draw a concrete understanding of their expected schemes. However, as the old saying goes: the tiger cannot change his stripes. Each of these newly hired DCs provide us with a paper trail of previous usage. Either as a position coach or coordinator, these newly installed DCs have already provided us with the framework we need for the purpose of tentatively evaluating the matchups. The first step, pulling from the defensive scheme history from every DC, involved collecting the three most-used coverage shells.
With a total of 272 games on the 2021 schedule, the 544 combined matchups for each team’s anticipated starting QB, WR1, WR2, WR3, and TE would be analyzed. That’s a grand total of 2,720 matchups. The next step involved recording the three coverage strengths, one weakness for each of those players. Whenever possible, each “strength” and “weakness” was determined based on the previous three seasons of play.
Therein lies an issue. We certainly do not want to exclude the players with less than three years of NFL play. For the rookies without a single game of action, the coverage strengths and weaknesses were pulled from college data. For the NFL sophomores, the data was drawn directly from those who submitted a complete/nearly complete season of data (i.e., Justin Herbert, Justin Jefferson, etc.). But the college numbers were again used for those failing to provide reliable data from their rookie seasons. Finally, for the few NFL veterans with, for whatever reason, reduced action during the last three seasons (i.e., Rob Gronkowski, etc.), every attempt was made to fill in the blanks using information prior to the last three years.
The next step involved highlighting the player matchups on both ends of the spectrum. The most exceptional of matchups received a green highlight in each of his three coverage strengths. The preliminary matchups to avoid would be facing a defense featuring their coverage scheme weakness without a single shell of strength. However, for each of the receivers evaluated, another step was required. The tiny detail of shadow threats would need to be factored. A receiver may be opposed by two or three of his coverage scheme strengths, but drawing a coverage trail from an elite defender such as James Bradberry or Levi Wallace could end up squashing production expectations.
For in-depth information on each of the most important defensive coverage schemes, make sure you check out the following links: Coverage Glossary | Cover 1 | Cover 2 | Cover 3 | Cover 4. If you missed the first three entries in the series, here are the links where you can find the QBs, WR1s, and the WR2s.
The “Perfect” WR3 Matchups
As I mentioned in articles covering both the WR1 and WR2s, defining each team’s WR3 is all about your preferred flavor. I have covered more than enough WRs within the three tiers to offset any differences of opinion in the WR pecking orders. As for the “perfect” label, we’re looking for the matchups where a defense will feature each of the three determined coverage schemes determined to be a strength from that WRs history:
| Week | Team | WR3 | Opponent | 1° Shadow Threat | 2° Shadow Threat | 3° Shadow Threat |
| 2 | Miami | Jaylen Waddle | Buffalo | Levi Wallace | Tre'Davious White | Jordan Poyer |
| 2 | Tampa Bay | Antonio Brown | Atlanta | A.J. Terrell | Mykal Walker | Deion Jones |
| 2 | Tennessee | Dez Fitzpatrick | Seattle | Ahkello Witherspoon | Jamal Adams | D.J. Reed |
| 3 | Cincinnati | Tyler Boyd | Pittsburgh | Joe Haden | Terrell Edmunds | Cameron Sutton |
| 3 | Indianapolis | Parris Campbell | Tennessee | Janoris Jenkins | Caleb Farley | Rashaan Evans |
| 3 | N.Y. Giants | Sterling Shepard | Atlanta | A.J. Terrell | Mykal Walker | Deion Jones |
| 3 | Washington | Dyami Brown | Buffalo | Levi Wallace | Tre'Davious White | Jordan Poyer |
| 4 | Houston | Nico Collins | Buffalo | Levi Wallace | Tre'Davious White | Jordan Poyer |
| 4 | N.Y. Jets | Jamison Crowder | Tennessee | Janoris Jenkins | Caleb Farley | Rashaan Evans |
| 5 | Arizona | Christian Kirk | San Francisco | Jason Verrett | Jaquiski Tartt | Fred Werner |
| 5 | Jacksonville | Laviska Shenault | Tennessee | Janoris Jenkins | Caleb Farley | Rashaan Evans |
| 5 | Kansas City | Cornell Powell | Buffalo | Levi Wallace | Tre'Davious White | Jordan Poyer |
| 6 | Green Bay | Allen Lazard | Chicago | Desmond Trufant | Tashaun Gipson | Roquan Smith |
| 6 | Kansas City | Cornell Powell | Washington | Kendall Fuller | William Jackson III | Kamren Curl |
| 8 | Denver | KJ Hamler | Washington | Kendall Fuller | William Jackson III | Kamren Curl |
| 8 | Indianapolis | Parris Campbell | Tennessee | Janoris Jenkins | Caleb Farley | Rashaan Evans |
| 8 | Miami | Jaylen Waddle | Buffalo | Levi Wallace | Tre'Davious White | Jordan Poyer |
| 9 | Arizona | Christian Kirk | San Francisco | Jason Verrett | Jaquiski Tartt | Fred Werner |
| 9 | Denver | KJ Hamler | Dallas | Trevon Diggs | Anthony Brown | Keanu Neal |
| 10 | Arizona | Christian Kirk | Carolina | Jaycee Horn | Donte Jackson | Jeremy Chinn |
| 10 | L.A. Chargers | Tyron Johnson | Minnesota | Cameron Dantzler | Patrick Peterson | Eric Kendricks |
| 11 | Kansas City | Cornell Powell | Dallas | Trevon Diggs | Anthony Brown | Keanu Neal |
| 12 | Cincinnati | Tyler Boyd | Pittsburgh | Joe Haden | Terrell Edmunds | Cameron Sutton |
| 12 | Green Bay | Allen Lazard | L.A. Rams | Jalen Ramsey | Darious Williams | David Long |
| 12 | Seattle | D'Wayne Eskridge | Washington | Kendall Fuller | William Jackson III | Kamren Curl |
| 14 | Green Bay | Allen Lazard | Chicago | Desmond Trufant | Tashaun Gipson | Roquan Smith |
| 14 | Jacksonville | Laviska Shenault | Tennessee | Janoris Jenkins | Caleb Farley | Rashaan Evans |
| 14 | Washington | Dyami Brown | Dallas | Trevon Diggs | Anthony Brown | Keanu Neal |
| 16 | Washington | Dyami Brown | Dallas | Trevon Diggs | Anthony Brown | Keanu Neal |
| 17 | Tampa Bay | Antonio Brown | N.Y. Jets | Blessuan Austin | Bryce Hall | Lamarcus Joyner |
It’s important to recognize that several promising rookies are likely to see a role in the range of the WR3 tier. One of those that I may be a bit overly optimistic in regards to his role is Cornell Powell. We obviously know Tyreek Hill will be the WR1 for KC. Byron Pringle has received glowing reports from early practices but, after Hill, the WR rotation is genuinely up in the air between Mecole Hardman, Pringle, Demarcus Robinson, and Powell.
Powell’s skillset strikes me as the missing component within Patrick Mahomes‘s arsenal. Every excuse for the Chiefs’ Super Bowl LV loss to Tampa Bay, but the complete lack of WR production after Hill was entirely obvious. Should Cornell earn a significant role by Week’s 5 and 6, it’s possible he could draw tough shadows that could spoil some stylistically-positive matchups. Regardless, I’ll be keeping my eyes on OC Eric Bieniemy’s rotation throughout the season.
The next rookie wideout on the list that has my eye is Dyami Brown. If you didn’t read the WR1 entry, allow me to break the news: envision the schedule upside of Terry McLaurin as the equivalent of Augustus Gloop vacationing in a chocolate factory. The kid is going to eat! Forcing defenses to deal with Curtis Samuel — a big-time free agent acquisition — will finally allow “F1 McLaurin” to reach his potential ceiling. Think back to the long list of rookie WRs who initially emerged during All-Pro seasons from WR1s. Knowing Samuel will be utilized in a variety of ways, Brown could be the next rookie breakout with a chunk of the available WR target share up for grabs. He’ll be shielded by McLaurin from elite shadow and, at the very least, a pair of dates with Dallas should be marked on your DFS calendar.
We all should be prepared for an Aaron Rodgers holdout/trade/retirement devastating the upside of the Packers’ skill positions. Should the Green Bay front office somehow manage to get Rodgers on the field, he will no doubt look to his Cover 4 and Cover 6 specialist, Allen Lazard, against the elite Rams and Bears’ defenses. While Lazard has been unable to do much in his career games facing Chicago, his 4/96/1 line against Los Angeles in the Divisional Round of the playoffs last season underlines the potential. He scored on a 58-yard catch and run, Post vs. Troy Hill, even adding a 21-yard gain on an in route within the coverage of Jalen Ramsey. We just really have no way of knowing if Lazard will be of any use in season-long until the unfortunate QB drama unfolds.
The final WR3 name in the data set with three “perfect” matchups is Christian Kirk. I wish I could get more excited about A.J. Green, but he certainly didn’t do himself any favors last season while drawing triple-digit targets in Cincinnati. We all know the premium targets will still belong to DeAndre Hopkins. And the Cardinals didn’t sign a guy with Green’s name to be a rotational player. But, since “Nuk” plays nearly exclusively on the left side, adding Green will kick Kirk into the slot. On routes Kirk has run from the slot the last three seasons, his yardage/route (YPRR) increased by 15%. However, we can also expect to see Rondale Moore and Andy Isabella see their share of time in the slot. We just can’t get too carried away with Kirk’s expected role until we see the concrete evidence.
Additional Prime WR3 Matchups of Note
These matchups are particularly important since they pit the WR3s who excel vs. Cover 1 (man) and the defenses who feature a Cover 1 as its primary scheme. Providing more appeal, in most cases, you will not be required to foot WR1/2 salaries:
| Week | Team | WR3 | Opponent | 1° Shadow Threat | 2° Shadow Threat | 3° Shadow Threat |
| 1 | Carolina | Terrace Marshall | N.Y. Jets | Blessuan Austin | Bryce Hall | Lamarcus Joyner |
| 2 | Denver | KJ Hamler | Jacksonville | C.J. Henderson | Shaquill Griffin | Myles Jack |
| 3 | Denver | KJ Hamler | N.Y. Jets | Blessuan Austin | Bryce Hall | Lamarcus Joyner |
| 3 | Jacksonville | Laviska Shenault | Arizona | Malcolm Butler | None | None |
| 4 | Cincinnati | Tyler Boyd | Jacksonville | C.J. Henderson | Shaquill Griffin | Myles Jack |
| 4 | Denver | KJ Hamler | Baltimore | Marlon Humphrey | Chuck Clark | Marcus Peters |
| 4 | Jacksonville | Laviska Shenault | Cincinnati | Chidobe Awuzie | Trae Waynes | Vonn Bell |
| 6 | Jacksonville | Laviska Shenault | Miami | Xavien Howard | Byron Jones | Eric Rowe |
| 7 | Baltimore | Devin Duvernay | Cincinnati | Chidobe Awuzie | Trae Waynes | Vonn Bell |
| 7 | Cincinnati | Tyler Boyd | Baltimore | Marlon Humphrey | Chuck Clark | Marcus Peters |
| 8 | Cincinnati | Tyler Boyd | N.Y. Jets | Blessuan Austin | Bryce Hall | Lamarcus Joyner |
| 9 | Carolina | Terrace Marshall | New England | Stephon Gilmore | J.C. Jackson | Jalen Mills |
| 10 | Baltimore | Devin Duvernay | Miami | Xavien Howard | Byron Jones | Eric Rowe |
| 10 | Carolina | Terrace Marshall | Arizona | Malcolm Butler | None | None |
| 10 | Jacksonville | Laviska Shenault | Indianapolis | Xavier Rhodes | Darius Leonard | T.J. Carrie |
| 12 | Carolina | Terrace Marshall | Miami | Xavien Howard | Byron Jones | Eric Rowe |
| 13 | Jacksonville | Laviska Shenault | L.A. Rams | Jalen Ramsey | Darious Williams | David Long |
| 15 | Denver | KJ Hamler | Cincinnati | Chidobe Awuzie | Trae Waynes | Vonn Bell |
| 16 | Baltimore | Devin Duvernay | Cincinnati | Chidobe Awuzie | Trae Waynes | Vonn Bell |
| 16 | Cincinnati | Tyler Boyd | Baltimore | Marlon Humphrey | Chuck Clark | Marcus Peters |
| 16 | Jacksonville | Laviska Shenault | N.Y. Jets | Blessuan Austin | Bryce Hall | Lamarcus Joyner |
| 17 | Jacksonville | Laviska Shenault | New England | Stephon Gilmore | J.C. Jackson | Jalen Mills |
| 18 | Jacksonville | Laviska Shenault | Indianapolis | Xavier Rhodes | Darius Leonard | T.J. Carrie |
Working down alphabetically, we come across three entries for Devin Duvernay. If you’ve yet to hear me say it, the addition of Rashod Bateman will be huge for Marquise Brown. Early word out of the Ravens’ camp is that Sammy Watkins has shone the brightest. Still only 28, Watkins spent the last three seasons as the third fiddle to Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Color me skeptical, but we’ve only seen ever so subtle hints at fantasy usefulness — yes, he did manage to score eight TDs with the Rams in 2017 — since his big 2015 season with the Bills. No matter how much he impressed during OTAs, Brown will be the alpha, and Bateman will likely continue to grow as the season rolls along.
Since Watkins’ YPRR plummets by over 20% out of the slot, I am expecting that he’ll split time with Bateman outside left, and it’ll be Duvernay that emerges as the guy inside. Simply oozing with athleticism, a full year in the system will be huge for Duvernay. And don’t write off the Baltimore offense as too run-heavy. OC Greg Roman had every intention of balancing the attack last season until the offense stalled without a second WR to engage safety attention. I am expecting to see that offense open up, even providing J.K. Dobbins with some weekly receiving upside. Duvernay is most definitely a name to keep in mind in dynasty, and he will be on the DFS, low-salary radar in Weeks 7 (Bengals), 10 (Dolphins), and 16 (Bengals).
If Drew Lock somehow retains his starting role, stick a fork in using any Denver receiver sans matchups with Cover 3-heavy defenses. My expectation is that Teddy Bridgewater will be the guy. If I’m right, we only need to look back to last season to draw expectation parallels. Bridgewater has a noodle arm, it’s gospel. What he does have is a high football IQ and a far better range of coverage success than Lock. Easily his best attribute, Bridgewater is just outside of the top-five Cover 1 QBs in the game. One guy that should be banging the table in favor of Bridgewater is K.J. Hamler. He ran fewer than 350 routes last season, but managed to collect 33% of his receptions, 30% of yards on only 19% of those routes vs. Cover 1. With up to seven matchups across from defenses featuring Cover 1 as its primary or secondary scheme, Bridgewater-to-Hamler could actually become a thing.
Taking all of the players that simply sit out OTAs for whatever reason, I usually place little emphasis on the all-too-common “Player X stood out/found an immediate connection/etc.” With the sheer number of matchups (8!) on the schedule facing defenses featuring a primary Cover 1 for Laviska Shenault Jr., we need to take all positive news seriously. Just take a look at these numbers: on 27% of total rookie routes against Cover 1, Shenault caught 46% of his receptions and 49% of yards! And those numbers come with a 78% increase in his average YPRR. Before we get carried away, it’s going to take some time for Trevor Lawrence to acclimate. And Shenault will need to share targets with D.J. Chark Jr., Marvin Jones Jr., and Collin Johnson. But it will not take long for new OC Darrell Bevell and Lawrence to recognize the Cover 1 beater they have in Shenault.
I’m still not convinced the mysterious, long list of injuries that led to Terrace Marshall Jr. slipping in the draft are fully behind him. In addition to a previous broken leg and recurrent ankle issue, Marshall is currently recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery. If he manages to be on the field at 100% come Week 1, he’ll have a quartet of Cover 1 matchups on the horizon. Without Curtis Samuel, the Panthers will provide him with every opportunity to be involved in the offense. As crazy as it may sound for a 6-foot-3, 205-pound kid that runs in the 4.3s, Marshall’s potential for a chronic condition drops a massive wrench into his dynasty value. But we can expect Carolina to run him into the ground while he’s healthy enough to play. I am particularly interested in his Week 10 matchup with Arizona.
Finally, we have four favorable matchups for Tyler Boyd. It’s an embarrassment of riches for the Bengals to consider Boyd as their WR3. All eyes will be on Ja’Marr Chase, but I fully expect an even target share between Chase, Boyd, and Tee Higgins. No matter what the final target rate numbers say, we can expect Cincinnati to roll out a juggernaut of a passing offense … if the offensive line Joe Burrow. I have a feeling that Burrow has both of the scheduled matchups facing Baltimore circled on his calendar. His Week 5 performance against the Ravens easily stands out at the worst from his rookie season. For that reason, I will have plenty of DFS exposure to Boyd in each of these four games, two against Baltimore. And I’ve been scooping up Boyd whenever he’s slipped even an inch in season-long, best-ball formats.
As with the WR1 and WR2s, this next grouping assembles a truly rare breed: the WR3s that excel against Cover 2 and/or Cover 6 — the coverages that give passing attacks, on average, the most trouble:
| Week | Team | WR3 | Opponent | 1° Shadow Threat | 2° Shadow Threat | 3° Shadow Threat |
| 1 | Atlanta | Olamide Zaccheaus | Philadelphia | Darius Slay | Rodney McCleod | Avonte Maddox |
| 4 | Pittsburgh | JuJu Smith-Schuster | Green Bay | Jaire Alexander | Josh Jackson | Kevin King |
| 5 | Detroit | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Minnesota | Cameron Dantzler | Patrick Peterson | Eric Kendricks |
| 5 | N.Y. Jets | Jamison Crowder | Atlanta | A.J. Terrell | Mykal Walker | Deion Jones |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | JuJu Smith-Schuster | Denver | Kyle Fuller | Patrick Surtain II | Bryce Callahan |
| 9 | L.A. Chargers | Tyron Johnson | Philadelphia | Darius Slay | Rodney McCleod | Avonte Maddox |
| 9 | Las Vegas | Hunter Renfrow | N.Y. Giants | James Bradberry | Adoree' Jackson | Blake Martinez |
| 9 | Pittsburgh | JuJu Smith-Schuster | Chicago | Desmond Trufant | Tashaun Gipson | Roquan Smith |
| 11 | Pittsburgh | JuJu Smith-Schuster | L.A. Chargers | Chris Harris | Michael Davis | Derwin James |
| 11 | Tennessee | Dez Fitzpatrick | Houston | Bradley Roby | Desmond King | Vernon Hargreaves |
| 12 | L.A. Chargers | Tyron Johnson | Denver | Kyle Fuller | Patrick Surtain II | Bryce Callahan |
| 12 | N.Y. Jets | Jamison Crowder | Houston | Bradley Roby | Desmond King | Vernon Hargreaves |
| 12 | San Francisco | Richie James | Minnesota | Cameron Dantzler | Patrick Peterson | Eric Kendricks |
| 13 | Detroit | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Minnesota | Cameron Dantzler | Patrick Peterson | Eric Kendricks |
| 15 | San Francisco | Richie James | Atlanta | A.J. Terrell | Mykal Walker | Deion Jones |
| 16 | Detroit | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Atlanta | A.J. Terrell | Mykal Walker | Deion Jones |
| 17 | L.A. Chargers | Tyron Johnson | Denver | Kyle Fuller | Patrick Surtain II | Bryce Callahan |
| 17 | San Francisco | Richie James | Houston | Bradley Roby | Desmond King | Vernon Hargreaves |
| 18 | Tennessee | Dez Fitzpatrick | Houston | Bradley Roby | Desmond King | Vernon Hargreaves |
Compared to the WR1 and WR2s, this is a short list. And we see plenty of bolded (elite) shadow threats. My efforts to beat the drum in favor of Amon-Ra St. Brown seems to have been a slight overkill with the level of fantasy love tossed his way. In his dynasty draft profile, I wrote that St. Brown combined the “best footwork, mid-air adjustments, functional strength, and the sharpest routes in this WR class.” But the trait that will give Cover 2 defenses fits in particular: “he simply destroyed coverages leaving the middle of the field open (i.e., Cover 2, 4, and 6).” As long as new OC Anthony Lynn sees it — and I think it already played a role in drafting him — St. Brown used the most dangerous skinny post in the class to establish his dominance over Cover 2 while at USC. I am listing St. Brown as the Lions’ WR3. But do not be surprised if St. Brown becomes the offense's second receiving option, only behind T.J. Hockenson.
The schedule gives JuJu Smith-Schuster four favorable matchups vs. Cover 6-heavy teams. However, provided they’re healthy, JJSS will play two of those with either a Bryce Callahan (Week 5) or Chris Harris Jr. (Week 11). And then there’s the small matter of his plummeting stock, as it appeared he failed to draw significant interest on the open market. At his current price in drafts, I’m not even coming close to touching Smith-Schuster. The same will likely be true in DFS.
On the flip side of potential, Tyron Johnson is a receiver who proved to be a Cover 6 hindrance last season, and I think will play a significant role in the Chargers’ offense. New OC Joe Lombardi already stated that he envisions a big season for Mike Williams. However, that statement was not really made in reference to anything in particular about Williams, just that his X-receiver with the Saints (Michael Thomas) always produced big seasons in his offense. Should Williams fail to impress with this golden opportunity, we could see Johnson step into the role down the road (or rookie Josh Palmer). In the meantime, Johnson will see three solid opportunities across from Philadelphia (Week 9) and Denver (Weeks 12 and 17).
Since quality WRs, in general, do very well against Cover 4 — the most vulnerable of shells to the pass — the next data set will be the WR3s who excel vs. Cover 3, against the defenses featuring Cover 3:
| Week | Team | WR3 | Opponent | 1° Shadow Threat | 2° Shadow Threat | 3° Shadow Threat |
| 1 | Tampa Bay | Antonio Brown | Dallas | Trevon Diggs | Anthony Brown | Keanu Neal |
| 2 | New Orleans | Marquez Callaway | Carolina | Jaycee Horn | Donte Jackson | Jeremy Chinn |
| 2 | Washington | Dyami Brown | N.Y. Giants | James Bradberry | Adoree' Jackson | Blake Martinez |
| 3 | Philadelphia | Greg Ward | Dallas | Trevon Diggs | Anthony Brown | Keanu Neal |
| 5 | Dallas | Michael Gallup | N.Y. Giants | James Bradberry | Adoree' Jackson | Blake Martinez |
| 5 | L.A. Rams | Van Jefferson | Seattle | Ahkello Witherspoon | Jamal Adams | D.J. Reed |
| 5 | Philadelphia | Greg Ward | Carolina | Jaycee Horn | Donte Jackson | Jeremy Chinn |
| 6 | New England | N'Keal Harry | Dallas | Trevon Diggs | Anthony Brown | Keanu Neal |
| 6 | Tennessee | Dez Fitzpatrick | Buffalo | Levi Wallace | Tre'Davious White | Jordan Poyer |
| 7 | New Orleans | Marquez Callaway | Seattle | Ahkello Witherspoon | Jamal Adams | D.J. Reed |
| 7 | Philadelphia | Greg Ward | Las Vegas | Casey Hayward | Rasul Douglas | Johnathan Abram |
| 9 | New England | N'Keal Harry | Carolina | Jaycee Horn | Donte Jackson | Jeremy Chinn |
| 10 | New England | N'Keal Harry | Cleveland | Denzel Ward | Greg Newsome II | Greedy Williams |
| 13 | New Orleans | Marquez Callaway | Dallas | Trevon Diggs | Anthony Brown | Keanu Neal |
| 14 | Dallas | Michael Gallup | Washington | Kendall Fuller | William Jackson III | Kamren Curl |
| 15 | Dallas | Michael Gallup | N.Y. Giants | James Bradberry | Adoree' Jackson | Blake Martinez |
| 15 | L.A. Rams | Van Jefferson | Seattle | Ahkello Witherspoon | Jamal Adams | D.J. Reed |
| 16 | Dallas | Michael Gallup | Washington | Kendall Fuller | William Jackson III | Kamren Curl |
| 16 | Tampa Bay | Antonio Brown | Carolina | Jaycee Horn | Donte Jackson | Jeremy Chinn |
| 17 | New Orleans | Marquez Callaway | Carolina | Jaycee Horn | Donte Jackson | Jeremy Chinn |
| 18 | Philadelphia | Greg Ward | Dallas | Trevon Diggs | Anthony Brown | Keanu Neal |
| 18 | Tampa Bay | Antonio Brown | Carolina | Jaycee Horn | Donte Jackson | Jeremy Chinn |
| 18 | Washington | Dyami Brown | N.Y. Giants | James Bradberry | Adoree' Jackson | Blake Martinez |
First things first, the new James Bradberry-Adoree’ Jackson shadow combo pops up four times on the list. That’s just going to be a problem for every receiver. Michael Gallup’s value takes quite a hit from each of the four Cover 3-heavy matchups, where he had his best opportunity to succeed will be defended by those Giants and the Kendall Fuller-William Jackson III shadow combo from Washington. Yikes!
Now that Antonio Brown passed his physical to make his deal official with Tampa Bay, we could be looking at a potential breakout candidate. One of the main factors that led to Brown having such a nice season with the Buccaneers is hios and Tom Brady’s history of Cover 3 dominance. We need to consider the sample size being reduced due to his previous suspension, but the Cover 3 numbers we do have on Brown over the last three seasons would rank him first in YPRR (4.67) and fantasy points/route (FP/Rt, 1.03). On only 17% of total routes, Brown has collected 41% of receptions, 44% of yards, and 50% of TDs when facing Cover 3. Those are money numbers. Weeks 1 (Dallas), 16 (Carolina), and 18 (Carolina) are clear DFS targets.
Greg Ward could still finagle his way toward a starting role, but recent reports suggests that Travis Fulgham could end up winning an outside role, and kicking Jalen Reagor into the slot. Let’s face reality, you’re not drafting Ward in season-long, or adding exposure in DFS either way. It’s exactly the same story for Marquez Callaway as the one I described for Tre’Quan Smith in the WR2 entry: Drew Brees was one of the finest Cover 3 QBs in the history of the game, they’ll need Taysom Hill to win the starting competition just to see a percentage of their Cover 3 success continue in the future.
The final name listed more than twice within the data set is N’Keal Harry. Has Harry been a massive disappointment the last two seasons? No question, yes. Is it time to force the kid into early retirement? Not even close. Harry fought through multiple injuries during his rookie season. With Tom Brady relocating to Florida, Harry went from working the best QB in history to one (Cam Newton) who threw more INTs (10) than TDs (eight), and finished 44th in air yards/game (195.5). Of all of the rumors circulating, one that I feel is more than a longshot is in favor of Mac Jones being elevated to the starting role in Year 1. It won’t take much for Jones to show he offers far better arm talent than Newton. But Jones never saw anything resembling pocket pressure while playing in Tuscaloosa. If Jones is plugged into the starting role right away, stick an immediate fork in the Patriots’ season. However, Harry will simply not be an option until Jones is eventually installed.
The Avoid List
To reiterate the criteria for a weekly matchup to avoid, these are the WR3s facing a defense that not only includes their glaring coverage weakness and are void of featuring any of their scheme strengths. As with the matchups to target, this list is far from exhaustive. It simply highlights the matchups where we need to think long-and-hard in favor of avoiding:
| Week | Team | WR3 | Opponent | 1° Shadow Threat | 2° Shadow Threat | 3° Shadow Threat |
| 1 | Dallas | Michael Gallup | Tampa Bay | Carlton Davis | Jamel Dean | Sean Bunting |
| 1 | N.Y. Giants | Sterling Shepard | Denver | Kyle Fuller | Patrick Surtain II | Bryce Callahan |
| 2 | Pittsburgh | JuJu Smith-Schuster | Las Vegas | Casey Hayward | Rasul Douglas | Johnathan Abram |
| 3 | Kansas City | Cornell Powell | L.A. Chargers | Chris Harris | Michael Davis | Derwin James |
| 3 | Tampa Bay | Antonio Brown | L.A. Rams | Jalen Ramsey | Darious Williams | David Long |
| 3 | New England | N'Keal Harry | New Orleans | Marshon Lattimore | Malcolm Jenkins | Paulson Adebo |
| 4 | Baltimore | Devin Duvernay | Denver | Kyle Fuller | Patrick Surtain II | Bryce Callahan |
| 4 | Kansas City | Cornell Powell | Philadelphia | Darius Slay | Rodney McCleod | Avonte Maddox |
| 4 | Las Vegas | Hunter Renfrow | L.A. Chargers | Chris Harris | Michael Davis | Derwin James |
| 5 | Atlanta | Olamide Zaccheaus | N.Y. Jets | Blessuan Austin | Bryce Hall | Lamarcus Joyner |
| 5 | Baltimore | Devin Duvernay | Indianapolis | Xavier Rhodes | Darius Leonard | T.J. Carrie |
| 6 | Baltimore | Devin Duvernay | L.A. Chargers | Chris Harris | Michael Davis | Derwin James |
| 6 | Houston | Nico Collins | Indianapolis | Xavier Rhodes | Darius Leonard | T.J. Carrie |
| 6 | L.A. Chargers | Tyron Johnson | Baltimore | Marlon Humphrey | Chuck Clark | Marcus Peters |
| 6 | Las Vegas | Hunter Renfrow | Denver | Kyle Fuller | Patrick Surtain II | Bryce Callahan |
| 6 | N.Y. Giants | Sterling Shepard | L.A. Rams | Jalen Ramsey | Darious Williams | David Long |
| 7 | Carolina | Terrace Marshall | N.Y. Giants | James Bradberry | Adoree' Jackson | Blake Martinez |
| 7 | Tampa Bay | Antonio Brown | Chicago | Desmond Trufant | Tashaun Gipson | Roquan Smith |
| 8 | Chicago | Anthony Miller | San Francisco | Jason Verrett | Jaquiski Tartt | Fred Werner |
| 8 | Dallas | Michael Gallup | Minnesota | Cameron Dantzler | Patrick Peterson | Eric Kendricks |
| 8 | Pittsburgh | JuJu Smith-Schuster | Cleveland | Denzel Ward | Greg Newsome II | Greedy Williams |
| 8 | Philadelphia | Greg Ward | Detroit | Jeffrey Okudah | Quinton Dunbar | Mike Ford |
| 9 | Atlanta | Olamide Zaccheaus | New Orleans | Marshon Lattimore | Malcolm Jenkins | Paulson Adebo |
| 9 | Minnesota | Bisi Johnson | Baltimore | Marlon Humphrey | Chuck Clark | Marcus Peters |
| 10 | Atlanta | Olamide Zaccheaus | Dallas | Trevon Diggs | Anthony Brown | Keanu Neal |
| 10 | Denver | KJ Hamler | Philadelphia | Darius Slay | Rodney McCleod | Avonte Maddox |
| 10 | New Orleans | Marquez Callaway | Tennessee | Janoris Jenkins | Caleb Farley | Rashaan Evans |
| 11 | Dallas | Michael Gallup | Kansas City | Charvarius Ward | L'Jarius Sneed | Tyrann Mathieu |
| 11 | Philadelphia | Greg Ward | New Orleans | Marshon Lattimore | Malcolm Jenkins | Paulson Adebo |
| 12 | New England | N'Keal Harry | Tennessee | Janoris Jenkins | Caleb Farley | Rashaan Evans |
| 13 | Houston | Nico Collins | Indianapolis | Xavier Rhodes | Darius Leonard | T.J. Carrie |
| 13 | Kansas City | Cornell Powell | Denver | Kyle Fuller | Patrick Surtain II | Bryce Callahan |
| 14 | Detroit | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Denver | Kyle Fuller | Patrick Surtain II | Bryce Callahan |
| 14 | Minnesota | Bisi Johnson | Pittsburgh | Joe Haden | Terrell Edmunds | Cameron Sutton |
| 14 | N.Y. Giants | Sterling Shepard | L.A. Chargers | Chris Harris | Michael Davis | Derwin James |
| 15 | Kansas City | Cornell Powell | L.A. Chargers | Chris Harris | Michael Davis | Derwin James |
| 15 | Washington | Dyami Brown | Philadelphia | Darius Slay | Rodney McCleod | Avonte Maddox |
| 16 | Atlanta | Olamide Zaccheaus | Detroit | Jeffrey Okudah | Quinton Dunbar | Mike Ford |
| 16 | Houston | Nico Collins | L.A. Chargers | Chris Harris | Michael Davis | Derwin James |
| 16 | Las Vegas | Hunter Renfrow | Denver | Kyle Fuller | Patrick Surtain II | Bryce Callahan |
| 17 | Atlanta | Olamide Zaccheaus | Buffalo | Levi Wallace | Tre'Davious White | Jordan Poyer |
| 17 | Cincinnati | Tyler Boyd | Kansas City | Charvarius Ward | L'Jarius Sneed | Tyrann Mathieu |
| 17 | N.Y. Giants | Sterling Shepard | Chicago | Desmond Trufant | Tashaun Gipson | Roquan Smith |
| 17 | Pittsburgh | JuJu Smith-Schuster | Cleveland | Denzel Ward | Greg Newsome II | Greedy Williams |
| 17 | Washington | Dyami Brown | Philadelphia | Darius Slay | Rodney McCleod | Avonte Maddox |
| 18 | Atlanta | Olamide Zaccheaus | New Orleans | Marshon Lattimore | Malcolm Jenkins | Paulson Adebo |
| 18 | Kansas City | Cornell Powell | Denver | Kyle Fuller | Patrick Surtain II | Bryce Callahan |
| 18 | Las Vegas | Hunter Renfrow | L.A. Chargers | Chris Harris | Michael Davis | Derwin James |
Whereas Cornell Powell will have several favorable matchups, he gave us nothing at Clemson to suggest he will succeed against an NFL Cover 6. Take note, since Powell will face five teams featuring Cover 6. It’s not all positive for Devin Duvernay. Like so many other receivers, Duvernay has struggled throughout his career against Cover 6. Each of these three opponents spell particular trouble. Hunter Renfrow strikes me as the kind of slot that could break out with monster PPR numbers, with the right QB. Unfortunately, Derek Carr is not that QB. Sit Renfrow whenever he’s facing either the Broncos or Chargers.
As if it were needed, there’s additional compelling evidence to avoid JuJu Smith-Schuster. I do think Michael Gallup’s best football is ahead, I just haven’t been able to pull the trigger in any of the drafts I’ve participated in this offseason. More than anything, it’s likely due to a massive man-crush on CeeDee Lamb’s game.
We’ll close out the WR3s with three receivers whom I’ve ultimately avoided in all formats: Nico Collins, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Sterling Shepard. For Collins, some might ask how I can look past that athleticism. I went 15 rounds with Collins’ profile, coming away unimpressed with everything other than his testing measurements. Nothing from his Michigan playing history suggests NFL stud receiver. Compounding the issue, it would take a return from Deshaun Watson — potentially never going to happen — to project positive results for Collins in Year 1.
As for Zaccheaus, my immediate thought following the trade of Julio Jones moved to the upside explosion for Kyle Pitts. After Pitts, my attention turned to Russell Gage. After Gage, I began to wonder how it might all affect Zaccheaus. Unfortunately, Atlanta’s schedule painted a crystal clear picture. Zaccheaus is a Cover 6 guy who, after Week 1 (Eagles), will not face another Cover 6 defense the rest of the season.
How can we not be impressed with the moves by the Giants? They took advantage of a timid market for Kenny Golladay to provide Daniel Jones with a bonafide WR1. And, by drafting Kadarius Toney, they supplied Jones with an instant checkdown option in the flat that will allow him to circumvent their pitiful O-line. With all reports indicating Saquon Barkley will return to full health, Shepard is simply going to struggle to see anything close to a healthy target share. Four obvious matchups to avoid only complicates his value further.
Employing the Information
Much of the approach to using this data is on a common sense-level. And the majority of the factors involved at QB and WR are nearly identical. First, everything depends on the format. As I’ve already stated, you want to start your studs in season-long formats unless you happen to have elite WRs on standby. My goal is, by the conclusion of this series, that you will be provided with enough valuable information to already supply a leg up in preparation over the massive DFS population.
Keep in mind, most of these WR3s have provided compelling data over a considerable stretch of action, and have either proven to have mastered or failed facing the specific coverage types. But why have these WR3s succeeded/failed? Three main factors help to answer that question:
- Proper pre-snap reads to identify the scheme
- When the QB and his WR unit have been able to identify the coverage, working together to employ the proper combo routes to attack all three levels of the secondary that have been proven to succeed in response
- WR separation — when it comes to the world of receiving, the ability to get open is far more important than speed
Make no mistake, coverage schemes are not simply defensive gimmicks. And, whether you like it or not, understanding how to take advantage of them in fantasy is a necessity. Coverages determine the scoring of every single (non-kicking) fantasy point scored in football. Teams either have a QB able to identify, attack, and the WRs able to get open or their offense falls flat on its face. Our fantasy squads mirror those alternatives.
