Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors, such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews.
Mia @ Buf
Game Notes:
The Dolphins need to win (or have one of a few other teams lose) so they should be a full-go. The Bills can’t do much to change their playoff situation, so they may rest some key players. Shaq Lawson (shoulder) is Questionable. Buffalo has a solid tackle crew, so Miami’s IDPs should see a boost.
Targets:
Eric Rowe - he has a good matchup, as does Xavien Howard and Byron Jones if Josh Allen sits.
Avoids:
A.J. Klein and Matt Milano - Particularly given the situation, these two can’t be trusted.
Jerry Hughes - he’s likely to get more rest.
Bal @ Cin
Game Notes:
The Ravens have to beat the Bengals to make the playoffs. They’ll be going all-out. The Bengals should be going all-out, too. Zac Taylor may be coaching for his job, and they have the motivation to keep Baltimore - a division rival - out of the playoffs. Tons of Ravens are Questionable: Calais Campbell (neck), Marlon Humphrey (knee, shoulder), Marcus Peters (calf), Jimmy Smith (ribs, shoulder), and Yannick Ngakoue (thigh). The Bengals will be without William Jackson (concussion) and Logan Wilson (ankle). Cincinnati has one of the most assist-heavy (and solo-light) stat crews.
Targets:
Germaine Pratt and Jordan Evans - they have a good matchup and have been playing more without Logan Wilson.
Sam Hubbard - the Ravens are banged up and Hubbard has been playing and producing at a high level.
Derek Wolfe - he’s got a dream matchup, and with so many injuries around him, he could see another high snap count.
Avoids:
If the Ravens get out to a big lead, they may rest players late, particularly the injured ones.
Pit @ Cle
Game Notes:
The Steelers are locked into their seed as the AFC North Champions. They will rest veterans. Also, Terrell Edmunds (shoulder) is Out.
Targets:
Myles Garrett, Sheldon Richardson, Larry Ogunjobi, and Olivier Vernon - they should be all-out against some backups at OL. Plus, they’ve been balling all year.
Avoids:
Mack Wilson - his snaps have suffered, and Pittsburgh is a poor matchup.
Any and All Steelers IDPs, sadly.
Min @ Det
Game Notes:
Both teams are out of it, and will likely use this game for evaluation. This may be Preseason Week 4 level chaos. Plus, Eric Kendricks, Ifeadi Odenigbo, and Cameron Dantzler are Out, while Jamie Collins is Questionable. I think I’m gonna be sick.
Targets:
Maybe some younger players like Eric Wilson and Romeo Okwara. A long shot could be Troy Dye.
Avoids:
All.
NYJ @ NE
Game Notes:
Javelin Guidry and Bless Austin are both Questionable. That’s a shame, as both have been productive. These teams have been out of it for a while, so there’s no clear indication of a change in usage (though all bets are off in Week 17 when two teams that have no effect on the playoffs face off).
Targets:
Marcus Maye - has been playing really well and has 13 tackles over his last two games.
Neville Hewitt - the Patriots run a ton and produce solid FPG to LBs.
Folorunso Fatukasi - the Patriots are down 2 starting OLs.
Avoids:
All the main Patriots LBs are Questionable.
DAL @ NYG
Game Notes:
The winner of this game would win the division if Washington loses on SNF. That means all hands on deck for both squads. Leighton Vander Esch is Out.
Targets:
Jaylon Smith - less tackle competition and a good stat crew.
Leonard Williams - one of the best matchups for DLs.
Avoids:
Sean Lee - even with LVE out, the team has split Lee and Joe Thomas in that role.
Atl @ TB
Game Notes:
The Bucs are essentially locked into the #5 seed, so they may rest players. The Falcons are out of it, so they may evaluate. Devin White and Shaq Barrett are currently on the COVID/Reserve list. Carlton Davis (groin) is Doubtful.
Targets:
Foyesade Oluokun - as a younger player, they should still use him a ton and he’s got a good matchup. He’s also playing in a good stadium.
Avoids:
Keanu Neal, Jason Pierre-Paul, Lavonte David, Ndamukong Suh - I can’t imagine these guys will play much. David may play more than expected because they’re shorthanded at LB.
NO @ Car
Game Notes:
The Saints are still fighting for a better playoff seeding, but will be without Alvin Kamara (COVID), and - for IDP purposes - Marcus Williams. Use your Saints IDPs as you would any other week. The Panthers are out of it and are missing several key players. Brian Burns and Troy Pride, Jr. are Doubtful, while Yetur Gross-Matos and Efe Obada are Questionable.
Targets:
Jeremy Chinn and Juston Burris - They have good matchups and should be logging in valuable snaps as young players.
Cameron Jordan - Russell Okung is banged up and the team is down their top 2 RBs. Jordan could have a big game.
Avoids:
Derrick Brown - with no help around him, Brown could get tackles, but he’ll likely be the only DL this stout O-line will be worried about. That makes big plays a lot harder to come by.
GB @ Chi
Game Notes:
The Packers and Bears are playing for the playoffs. A Packers win means possibly the #1 seed and a playoff bye. A Bears win means they’re in the playoffs. Kingsley Keke (concussion) is Out, which is a shame because he’s been playing well. The Bears are hurting in the secondary, as Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine are Out, while Deon Bush and Tashaun Gipson are Questionable.
Targets:
Duke Shelley and Kindle Vildor - they’re our targets because they will be Aaron Rodgers’ targets. Rodgers always creates production for opposing CBs, especially when they’re backups.
Khalil Mack - with David Bakhtiari Out, Mack’s day will be a little easier.
Avoids:
Akiem Hicks - normally we love Hicks, but the Packers are still the worst matchup for interior DLs.
LV @ Den
Game Notes:
There’s not much to play for here, expect evaluations for next year. This could mean younger players may get experience snaps. Maurice Hurst and Lamarcus Joyner are Questionable. Bradley Chubb is also Questionable. I can’t imagine they’ll push it with him.
Targets:
Malik Reed - he’s got a good matchup with Trent Brown out.
Johnathan Abram and Erik Harris - the Broncos are the #1 team for opposing DB production and with Joyner out, these two will be busy.
Avoids:
The Raiders LBs have a slow matchup. The Broncos produce a below-average 18 tackles per game to LBs.
Ten @ Hou
Game Notes:
The Titans need to win the AFC South and be a top-4 seed. The Texans are out of it, but will likely play most (not all) of their starters out of competitive obligation.
Targets:
Tyrell Adams and Zach Cunningham - there’s a chance that the Texans won’t risk their star LBs, but I’m not sure I can sit them. The Titans are a top-10 team for LB FPG.
Avoids:
Keion Crossen and Lonnie Johnson, Jr. - we’ve loved using these guys lately, but they both have a horrendous matchup. The Titans are one of the worst teams for DB production. I might still use them, but don’t expect the 8-10 tackles they've been giving us.
Jax @ Ind
Game Notes:
The Colts can still make the playoffs with a win (given some other teams’ fates), so they’ll play all out, while the Jaguars are banged up and out of it. The Colts secondary will be missing two important players: Khari Willis and Rock Ya-Sin are both Out.
Targets:
Greg Mabin - if he starts again, Philip Rivers will go at him all day. Mabin had 10 solos last week squaring off against Allen Robinson.
Josh Jones - the Colts are massively productive to DBs.
Avoids:
None of note.
LAC @ KC
Game Notes:
The Chiefs are locked into the #1 seed, so they will be resting players, particularly in a game with no other playoff implications. Ben Niemann is Out, as is Joey Bosa and Rayshawn Jenkins.
Targets:
Jahleel Addae - assuming he replaces Jenkins again, look for a productive day out of him against a backup QB.
Avoids:
It really is tough to start any KC IDP.
Ari @ LAR
Game Notes:
Whoever wins this game makes the playoffs. It. Is. On. Budda Baker is Questionable. Micah Kiser is Out again, and Leonard Floyd is Questionable.
Targets:
Troy Reeder - he’s got a good matchup and has been posting LB2+ production.
Haason Reddick and Zach Allen - the Rams are already a top-5 team in giving up production to DLs. Add a backup QB in the mix, and it’s gangbusters.
Avoids:
None of note.
Sea @ SF
Game Notes:
Seattle is playing for a top-4 seed, while San Francisco is out of playoff contention. With so many starters out for SF, there’s a chance this is a blowout and Seattle rests players late. The 49ers have a ton of IDPs banged up. Javon Kinlaw, Richard Sherman, K'Waun Williams, and Dre Greenlaw are Out, while Tarvarius Moore, Emmanuel Moseley, and Mark Nzeocha are Questionable. The Seahawks get to play in a better tackle stadium to close out the year.
Targets:
D.J. Reed and Jamal Adams - SF has been a great matchup for DBs, and these two have been playing great. Reed should hang onto his starting gig over Tre Flowers, who was activated this week.
Avoids:
None of note. Though Carlos Dunlap may get extra rest if they don’t need him much.
Was @ Phi
Game Notes:
If Washington wins, they win the division and are in the playoffs. The Eagles can play spoiler and Doug Pederson and other coaches are likely fighting for their jobs. Thomas Davis is Out, while Kevin Pierre-Louis is Questionable. Derek Barnett and Fletcher Cox are Out.
Targets:
Cole Holcomb - beyond a solid matchup, Holcomb has fewer reinforcements, so his snap count should be very high.
Josh Sweat, Vinny Curry, Brandon Graham, and Javon Hargrave all will see elevated snaps with Cox and Barnett out. Washington gives up over 2 sacks and 14 tackles per game to DLs.
The Washington DLs are also in line for increased production. The Eagles surrender the most sacks in the NFL, and this line racks up sacks with regularity.
Avoids:
Rodney McLeod and Jalen Mills - with Alex Smith likely to start and no Terry McLaurin, the ball will likely stay near the line of scrimmage, keeping these two far from the action.
