For fantasy purposes, it’s better to have players in games that feature teams that play fast and run a lot of plays. Why? Faster paced offenses drain less clock in between plays which gives the game more overall play volume. And more play volume = more opportunities.
In this weekly column, I’ll highlight a few games that project for more pace and plays and some spots that could underwhelm.
Fast-paced games
Bills (8th in pace) vs. Cardinals (2nd)
This game is the best environment for points that we have on this slate. Both teams rank inside of the top-8 in pace (seconds in between snaps) and their speed is leading to a bunch of shootouts. Five of the Cardinals last six games have combined for at least 48 points while the Bills are obviously capable of hanging big scores, too. Buffalo has faced a slew of slow-paced opponents — like the Jets twice, Patriots, Raiders, and Dolphins — but when they have faced similarly fast teams like the Rams (5th in pace) and Titans (3rd), those contests combined for 67 and 58 points respectively. If this game stays as close as the spread implies (the Cardinals are 2-point favorites), we should expect a back-and-forth shootout and plenty of passing from Josh Allen. Vegas is all over this game, too. The over/under has been on the move all week since opening at 52. It’s now up to 56, which is the highest total on the slate ahead of Rams-Seahawks (54.5).
Texans (6th in pace) vs. Browns (14th)
Deshaun Watson is unquestionably putting together his best season yet. It’s just too bad the Texans are wasting it. After a brutal opening stretch (vs. Chiefs / Ravens / Steelers), Watson has been stellar over the Texans last five games where he’s completed 69% of his passes, averaged 316.8 yards per game, and compiled a 13:2 TD-to-INT ratio. Houston’s defense is just getting absolutely shellacked both through the air and on the ground, causing almost all of their games to be shootouts and forcing Watson to carry the team. You add in the fact that Watson and the Texans play fast and try to score quickly when they are on offense, and we’ve got dream game environments in fantasy. In fact, all but one of the Texans games this year have combined for at least 49 points this season and their last three contests have gone for monster totals: 78 points vs. Titans, 55 points vs. Packers, and 52 points vs. Jaguars. Sure, the Browns are close to average in pace and extremely run-heavy regardless of game-script — they’re the NFL’s fourth-most run-heavy team when leading (58%) and when trailing (41%) — but that won’t matter. Regardless if it’s through the air or on the ground, Cleveland should have no trouble putting up points and it’ll force Watson to continue to play fast and work his magic.
Bengals (11th in pace) vs. Steelers (16th)
On the one hand, this game should be up in pace and should feature another pass-heavy game-script for Joe Burrow. Not only are both teams at or above league-average in pace, the Bengals are third in the league in plays (72 per game) while the Steelers are 11th (65 per game). Play volume isn’t a problem here. The larger concern for how this game plays out is whether or not the Bengals can keep Burrow upright. Pittsburgh is a notoriously aggressive front-seven and they send blitzes at the league’s second-highest rate (43%). The good news? The Bengals offensive line is much healthier coming out of their bye. Burrow should get C Trey Hopkins and LG Michael Jordan back and it sounds like both LT Jonah Williams and RT Bobby Hart are both trending in the right direction. Even though AFC North matchups are usually slugfests, this game has shootout appeal if the Bengals offensive line is somewhat healthy.
Slow-paced games
Jaguars (31st in pace) vs. Packers (21st)
Whew, boy. Green Bay is going to be able to do whatever they want in this spot. The Jags’ play slow and try to bleed the clock when they have the ball because of their painfully bad defense. Which is a good plan! But it won’t work this week against a red-hot Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are equally slow and methodical on offense and trail only the Panthers (3 minutes, 20 seconds) in time of possession per drive (3 minutes, 17 seconds). The Packers have put up at least 30 points in six of 8 games this year and should have no problem hanging another crooked number on a completely over-matched Jacksonville secondary and front-seven. Vegas is expecting the Packers to dominate (they are 14-point favorites) and they have trimmed 3.5 points off of the over/under since Monday morning, which signals they expect a big time blowout.
49ers (32nd in pace) vs. Saints (29th)
This game is pretty gross overall. Both teams are among the bottom four teams in pace with the Saints ranking fourth-best (3 minutes, 7 seconds) and 49ers eighth-best (3 minutes, 1 second) in time of possession per drive. Not only do we have pace concerns in this matchup because both teams love to play slow and sit on the ball, but the bigger problem for the 49ers will be how they put up points with their skeleton squad on offense. Even with the Saints struggling defensively, Vegas is not high on the 49ers prospects. San Francisco’s implied team total is down to just 19.3 points, which is third-lowest on the slate ahead of only the Patriots and Jaguars (18.3 implied points).
Vikings (28th in pace) vs. Bears (26th)
We know how the Vikings want to play. They have no interest in letting Kirk Cousins throw the ball, instead relying on Dalvin Cook and grinding out the clock with their run game. When the game goes their way, Cousins has averaged a hilariously low 18.7 pass attempts per game in wins. When the Vikings have lost, Cousins’ volume is far more normal (30.6 attempts per game). Meanwhile, the Bears’ offense is painfully inept and equally slow. Six of Chicago’s nine games have combined for 41 or fewer points.
