Fantasy Points managing editor Joe Dolan runs a playoff contest with his friends that employs the “one-and-done” or “use ‘em and lose ‘em” format.
The premise is simple: you pick a lineup from the entire available player pool every week (in this format, I reluctantly include kickers and defenses to make lineups bigger). The goal is to score the most points throughout the entire playoffs. But you can only use a player once. So you can choose to use Josh Allen in the first week of the postseason, but he’s unavailable the rest of the way.
It’s a really deep and interesting way to play because you have to maximize your scoring every week. Yes, saving players is important. But you can’t just use scrubs from teams you project to lose every week because you need to score the most points overall to win the grand prize. On the flip side, you can load up on points in the first round, but you may be doing so by eliminating players who are going to advance deep into the playoffs, which gives you a very limited player pool the rest of the way.
With that in mind, here are the strategies our staff are using in the contest in the first round.
Lineups are 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 DST, and 2 WRT FLEX. Scoring is PPR with 4 points per passing TD. Return TDs — but not yards — count.
Joe Dolan
Quarterback (1)
I’m using Lamar Jackson. This game with the Titans could go either way, but this game also has the highest total of the week, and I’m getting my damn exposure to it with the most explosive player in the game. Lamar is being more decisive with his legs since these teams met in November, and even if the Ravens advance to next week, I’ll have no doubt Lamar was a big reason why.
Also considered: Ben Roethlisbeger (Pit)
Running Backs (4)
I’m going chalky at RB too, with one exception. Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, and Jonathan Taylor are absolute hammer RB1s on teams that are underdogs this week. The RB pool thins out significantly after this week presuming chalk holds, so I’m not missing on this opportunity to use them. I especially expect Montgomery and Taylor to be “one and done.” Henry might not be, but again, given I’m using Lamar at QB, I want exposure from the two best fantasy players in the highest-lined game of the week. I’ll save the secondary options from both teams for next week.
Then, following optimistic reports about Alex Smith’s availability on Friday, I’m plugging in JD McKissic, who has had 8 or more targets six times in the second half of the season. The team is 2-4 in those games, and 2-6 in games in which McKissic has 8 or more targets overall this season. The Team is an 8-point dog to the Bucs, so it’s a perfect time to use him.
Also considered: Nick Chubb (Cle), JK Dobbins (Bal), Gus Edwards (Bal), Nyheim Hines (Ind)
Wide Receivers (2)
Again, I think the RB pool thins out after this week, so I’m going with some “lower used” guys at WR with the expectation I’ll use some of those hammer WRs down the line. I’m shying away from the chalk and not using Allen Robinson this week, which might be a mistake. But I will use Tyler Lockett, who had 12 catches last week and gets the easier matchup against the Rams with Jalen Ramsey spending a decent chunk of time on DK Metcalf. I’m also going to go way off the radar and use Antonio Brown from the Bucs this week. Mike Evans isn’t 100% even if he plays, so I expect Brown will get some more usage than usual.
Also considered: Chris Godwin (TB), Chase Claypool (Pit), AJ Brown (Ten)
Tight End (1)
Chalkasaurus Rex. Logan Thomas is the play. I think Washington is gonna get toasted this week, and he’s the best TE on the board for just one fantasy game this week.
Also considered: Jared Cook (NO), Mark Andrews (Bal)
Defense/Special Teams (1)
I’m going with Seattle’s improved defense against either Jared Goff (thumb injury) or John Wolford (first playoff start).
Also considered: LA Rams, Pittsburgh, New Orleans
Place Kicker (1)
My Pick: Rodrigo Blankenship (Ind); Also considered: Justin Tucker (Bal)
Tom Brolley
Quarterback (1)
I picked the Ravens to advance to the Divisional Round, but I’m not missing out on using Lamar Jackson at least once just in case the Titans pull off the upset in the second-tightest lined contest of Wild Card weekend.
Stat to know: Lamar has posted 22+ FP while accounting for multiple scores in each of his last five games.
Also considered: Ryan Tannehill (Ten), Ben Roethlisberger (Pit)
Running Backs (4)
Four of the top six running backs in the playoffs are on teams that are underdogs this week. I’m loading up at the position just in case a lot of these guys get knocked out this week. I don’t want to be left playing guys I want no part of later in the playoffs. Derrick Henry is the top play at the position, and he’s not guaranteed a second game. The Browns clearly held back Nick Chubb last week, but he’ll be fully unleashed this week with Kareem Hunt struggling. David Montgomery and Jonathan Taylor caught fire in the second half of the season, and I’m expecting them to be fed the rock this week even in negative game scripts.
Stats to know: Henry has seen 23+ carries in six of his last seven games with 98+ rushing yards in each of those games. Chubb has posted 100+ scrimmage yards in six of his eight games since returning to the lineup in Week 10. Taylor has averaged 139.5 scrimmage yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game in his final six contests. Montgomery has posted 110+ scrimmage yards and 20+ FP in six straight games since Trubisky took back over at quarterback.
Also considered: J.K. Dobbins (Bal), J.D. McKissic (Was)
Wide Receivers (2)
I’m going light at wide receiver to take advantage of the top backs who might only be available this week. I’ll likely be going with four at the position in the final three weeks. I think Allen Robinson is one of the best receivers available and I would be stunned if the Bears knock off the Saints this week so I’m getting him in my lineup. I’m also using A.J. Brown in the highest totaled game of the week. He’s capable of a ceiling game at any time and I don’t want to miss out on that if the Titans lose this week.
Stats to know: Before his dud last week, A-Rob posted 74+ receiving yards while averaging 10.2 targets per game in Weeks 12-16 after Trubisky became the starter again. Brown has scored touchdowns in 10 of his 14 games this season and he’s managed 4+ catches on 13 occasions.
Also considered: Chris Godwin (TB), Diontae Johnson (Pit), Marquise Brown (Bal)
Tight End (1)
Much like Lamar, I wanted to make sure I got Mark Andrews into one of my lineups in this contest. The Ravens are running neck-and-neck with the Bills for the highest-implied total of Wild Card weekend.
Stats to know: Andrews posted a season-high 96 receiving yards in this matchup in Week 11 on his way to 5/96/1 receiving on seven targets for 20.6 FP.
Also considered: Logan Thomas (Was), Jared Cook (NO)
Defense/Special Teams (1)
I have some chalky picks this week so I’ll try to differentiate some at defense with the Steelers. I think the Saints and the Buccaneers could come in a little higher owned than Pittsburgh.
Stats to know: Baker Mayfield has never thrown for 200+ passing yards in five games against the Steelers. Pittsburgh owns five turnovers and 16 sacks against him in those contests.
Also considered: New Orleans, Tampa Bay
Place Kicker (1)
My Pick: Ryan Succop (TB); Also considered: Justin Tucker (Bal)
Ben Kukainis
Quarterback (1)
Lamar Jackson (Bal): I see two things happening… the Ravens getting bounced yet again by the Titans, and Lamar Jackson continuing his rushing totals after becoming the first QB to finish with 1,000 rushing yards in back to back seasons. I want Lamar’s production, and I’m not concerned about an inability to use him in the following playoff rounds.
Running Backs (4)
Cam Akers (LAR): I’m not ignoring his 1.6 YPC in Week 17. I’m simply choosing volume here. Goff is currently limited and if he can’t go, I’d expect more of a rushing attack. Darrell Henderson is dealing with a high-ankle sprain and Akers has seen an average of 21.5 carries in his last four games, so while I think there’s a slim chance the Rams could win, I don’t mind burning Akers early here and helping to put a big Round 1 number on the board for me.
Nick Chubb (Cle): Maybe it’s my Cleveland bias (yes, I’m a Philly guy but with half my family from Cleveland), but I believe either the Browns will win, or they will keep it competitive throughout. And they’ll keep it competitive by using one of the best pure runners in the league. This is actually a win-win situation: if the Browns win, I’m free to use Hunt in what should be a more favorable losing game script for him in the next round. If they lose, I will have at least gotten a game out of Nick Chubb.
J.D. McKissic (Was): I don’t see a scenario where this game isn’t competitive without McKissic seeing double digit targets. Simply put, gimme his receiving production before The Football Team gets bounced, while I stash some RB studs for future rounds.
Latavius Murray (NO): With the Saints eyeing a Super Bowl run, I have to think they are going to play things very evenly and balanced in their backfield in the Wild Card game. Kamara will outproduce Murray, but I’ll be free to use Kamara in the future while hopefully banking a TD (or two?) from Murray, who may see solid 3rd and 4th quarter action.
Note: I’m playing it risky here by not including Derrick Henry. If the Titans lose, I will have likely missed out on a 20-30+ FP performance. So I’m taking a gamble, in the hopes of getting a Derrick Henry-Aaron Jones lineup next week.
Wide Receivers (2)
Allen Robinson (Chi): This one is easy. A top-5 wide receiver in the league who is set to be bounced in the first round. I’ll take his production and then look forward to using the likes of Tyreek, MT, and others in the future.
Marquise Brown (Bal): I struggled a bit with this decision. I still think the Ravens will lose, but there’s no denying Hollywood’s last 3 games have been very encouraging, totaling 15/164/3 on 19 targets. I’m not expecting anything spectacular, but I’m using this mini-stack with Lamar to either hedge (lack of Hollywood production may mean more rushing production from Jackson) or double-up with some Jackson-Brown connections.
Tight End (1)
Logan Thomas (Was): Another easy decision for me here. Finished the year absolutely scorching hot, as his 176.6 PPR FP were 3rd among TEs on the year, and he won’t be available to use after Washington loses this week.
Defense/Special Teams (1)
Pittsburgh: I don’t see the Browns, who are dealing with another COVID outbreak, topping 17 points in this one, and I think we can count on 3 sacks and an INT from the Steelers defense. Even if the Steelers lose, I just think this game will be ugly; and I’d much rather have the Steelers now than face the prospect of having to use them against the Chiefs or Bills if they make it further into the playoffs.
Place Kicker (1)
Justin Tucker (Bal): Going back to my thoughts on Baltimore losing this weekend, gimme the points from the best kicker in the league before he’s eliminated.
Graham Barfield
Quarterback (1)
Lamar Jackson: I thought hard about using Ryan Tannehill here. I knew I wanted to save Josh Allen for the Divisional or Championship Round as well, so Jackson it is. Ravens-Titans is by far the toughest game to handicap this weekend so I’m just going to guarantee myself a high-floor and high-ceiling QB out of the gates. Jackson finished the season on a tear, averaging 27.9 fantasy points per game — which is better than his QB1 season last year (27.7). This game has the highest total on the board (54), so I’m going to correlate my lineup and take a few more pieces from this game so I can guarantee exposure to two of the best offenses playing in this round.
Running Backs (4)
Nick Chubb, David Montgomery, J.D. McKissic, and Jonathan Taylor: I’m taking four runners that are all underdogs this week so I give myself plenty of great options for the final three rounds. Montgomery and McKissic are extremely likely to be one-and-done and eliminated from the pool this week, no one thinks the Browns have a chance, and the Colts are up against their toughest task of the season in Josh Allen. Running backs are going to get really thin as we continue this pool, so I think using up all of the bell-cows (Chubb / Montgomery / Taylor) that are unlikely to move on to the Divisional Round is the optimal move this week.
Wide Receivers (2)
Allen Robinson and A.J. Brown: Again, the Bears are likely one-and-done so I want to go ahead and get exposure to A-Rob as one of the best standalone plays on the slate. Mitch Trubisky is going to pepper A-Rob with Darnell Mooney (ankle) likely out. Meanwhile, A.J. Brown sets up perfectly with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. If that game shoots out, the hope is that it’s with plenty of fantasy points through the air on both sides.
Tight End (1)
Mark Andrews: I’m completing my Ravens-Titans game stack by pairing Jackson and Andrews to go along with A.J. Brown at receiver. Logan Thomas was my other consideration here, but I’m already playing McKissic and would rather bank on him getting all the dump-offs instead of playing two members of The Team in the same lineup. Andrews might be the best tight end play on this slate anyway. He’s seen 33% of the Ravens targets over the last five weeks and crushed in this matchup earlier this year (5/96/1).
Defense/Special Teams (1)
Rams D/ST: The Steelers were my other consideration, but I don’t want any negative correlation in my lineup since I’m also playing Chubb. Rams-Seahawks can really go either way and I think it projects as the lowest-scoring game on the slate by far. The spot can’t really get much better for the Rams D/ST either. The Seahawks offensive line got ripped to shreds in the two prior meetings between these two teams as Russell Wilson took an enormous 11 sacks and lost 3 turnovers.
Place Kicker (1)
Will Lutz: The Saints are huge favorites and the only team playing in a dome this week.
Tom Simons
Quarterback (1)
Lamar Jackson: I debated Jackson, Russell Wilson, and Josh Allen as I wanted a quarterback that will supply points off his legs as well as his arm. Ryan Tannehill was considered but I believe the Ravens defense will keep him in check. Allen might be without two key wide receivers (Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley), thus he may struggle a bit. I almost went with Wilson with the thought that Jackson would be available in the next round of playoffs. Wilson has struggled against the Rams and two more stud quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers) are getting added to the mix next week. Plus, Jackson will face tougher defenses as the playoffs roll on. This could be Jackson’s best matchup in the entire playoffs.
Running Backs (3)
Derrick Henry, J.K. Dobbins, and Nick Chubb: In PPR leagues, I tend to go more wide receivers than running backs but in player elimination leagues, wide receivers tend to drop off quickly the deeper you go into the playoffs. So I chose three running backs in the first round. Two of my three choices are likely just one round playoff teams. I consider a few other running backs over Dobbins, but most of them are players I feel will make it to the next round. Jonathan Taylor and David Montgomery were heavy considerations, but Taylor has a shoulder injury that concerns me and Montgomery is facing one of the best defenses in the NFL. I need to maximize my choices in the first round. Henry will not put up 200 yards against the Ravens, but the Titans will lean on him big time. The Browns will likely fall behind the Steelers and Chubb will see most of his action in the passing game, which bodes well in this point-per-reception scoring.
Wide Receivers (3)
Chris Godwin, A.J. Brown, and Cooper Kupp: With Mike Evans banged up and questionable, I see Tom Brady focusing in on Godwin and Antonio Brown against a beatable Washington secondary. Not wanting to put all my eggs in the Buccaneers basket, I opted for Brown against the Ravens. He is banged up as well (knee/hand) and might be a last minute change once I see the Titans’ Friday practice report. Kupp is coming off the Reserve Covid-19 list and should be ready to do some damage against a Seahawks secondary that could be missing Shaquill Griffin. Kupp posted 13 catches for 116 yards in his two games against the Seahawks this year.
Tight End (1)
Mark Andrews: Jared Cook and Andrews were my two choices here. I originally had Cook as my tight end, but went with Andrews as I worked on my quarterback decision. Having Lamar Jackson as a possible choice at quarterback made me lean heavily towards Andrews. There is a solid chance both Andrews and Cook are available in the next round, so I could go either way with one of them.
Defense/Special Teams (1)
Saints D/ST: The Buccaneers were on my radar as well. Facing a Washington offense that is struggling right now is very enticing. So is the Saints battling a Bears offense that is also struggling. New Orleans has allowed the fourth fewest points (337) in the NFL this year. The Bears have given up the fourth most INTs (16) this year. It was a tough decision but I like the Saints at home over the Buccaneers on the road.
Place Kicker (1)
Ryan Succop: Succop is coming off his eighth multiple field goal game of the year. Washington has allowed multiple field goal attempts at home in three of their last four home games. Succop could get at least two field goal attempts in this one.
