The Fantasy Points staff recently welcomed NFL Films legend Greg Cosell and NFL Insider Adam Caplan to talk about the NFC South as part of our Virtual Pow-wow Series. We highly encourage you to check out the entire conversation by accessing our Livestream archives.
Cosell and Caplan joined John Hansen and company to break down the NFC South from front to back to help us get a deeper understanding of every roster heading into the summer. Hansen has been holding these closed-door meetings with Cosell and Caplan for the last 15 years. The Fantasy Points staff is proud to let the public peek behind the curtain for the first time ever during these exclusive Livestreams! Here are the notes I compiled from the NFC South meeting, and I included my biggest fantasy takeaways for each team.
Atlanta Falcons
Calvin Ridley has fallen slightly below Greg’s expectations coming out of Alabama. He’s been a nice complement — a piece of a passing game — to Julio Jones in his first two seasons, but he hasn’t shown that he’s a volume receiver to this point. Ridley will get the chance to take a step forward this year with Austin Hooper and Mohamed Sanu gone.
Greg thinks Hayden Hurst is a little more athletic than Hooper, and he’s interested to see how he fits into this passing game. Hooper is more like Zach Ertz (more of a route runner) while Hurst is more like Dallas Goedert (more explosive plays). Matt Ryan isn’t afraid to target his tight ends when he feels comfortable with them as he did with Hooper and Tony Gonzalez. OC Dirk Koetter likes to attack downfield off of run action, and Hurst should get opportunities in the intermediate to deeper areas.
Russell Gage moves well and he can line up inside and outside. He should emerge as the #3 WR, and Ryan is going to have a lot of attempts again with this defense. The Falcons have no WR depth at WR, and Adam was stunned they didn’t draft anyone.
Hooper is more like Zach Ertz (more of a route runner) while Hurst is more like Dallas Goedert (more explosive plays).
Greg said Todd Gurley didn’t look good last year. Gurley has always been downhill, power-explosion runner and he no longer had it last season. He’s lost what made him special. Graham added that Gurley no longer has the same agility, which really showed up in the passing game. He finished dead last in yards per route run (.53) among RBs last season after being one of the best in yards per route run earlier in his career.
Alex Mack is near the end of his career, but the Falcons have gotten much younger and more athletic on their O-line.
The Falcons brought in Dante Fowler to be their top rusher and to take the pressure off Takk McKinley, who has been a disappointment to this point. Former 2017 first-round pick Charles Harris didn’t do anything in Miami, but Greg really liked him coming out and he’ll get the chance to rush the quarterback in Atlanta. A.J. Terrell and Isaiah Oliver are both bigger CBs with athletic traits, and they’re going to be thrown into the fire this season.
Brolley’s Fantasy Takeaways
We’re well above consensus on both Calvin Ridley and Hayden Hurst this season, and our discussion didn’t damper my excitement for both of these receivers. Greg did raise one concern with Ridley that he’s never been a receiver to command the rock every week. He started to do it at the end of the season when both Austin Hooper (injury) and Mohamed Sanu (trade) were out of the lineup, but an ab injury ended cut his season short. Hurst’s concerns are obvious since he’s never been a full-time player. He got stuck behind Mark Andrews as Baltimore’s movement TE, but the Falcons traded a second-round pick for him to be their guy. Both Ridley and Hurst are in good shape since the Falcons should throw it a ton again this season — the Falcons running game is going to struggle and their defense should get gashed. They’re also going to have little competition for targets because of Atlanta’s extremely thin receiving corps. They also have ceiling potential if Julio Jones’ play falls off a bit or if he gets hurt. Keep loading up on Ridley and Hurst in your drafts.
I have no interest in drafting Todd Gurley this season after the grim picture that Greg and Graham painted for him. Gurley should see volume, especially in the passing game — Devonta Freeman averaged 4.2 catches per game last season — and he has little competition in the backfield. The problem is Gurley doesn’t have the same explosiveness and agility that he once had. It’s much more likely that his play continues to fall off because of his bad knees rather than to suddenly improve. If you want to draft RBs that might stink but could get a lot of volume, I’d go for David Johnson or David Montgomery since at least their ADPs are two rounds later than Gurley’s early-third price tag.
Carolina Panthers
The Joe Brady-Matt Rhule marriage should be interesting. Brady likes to spread out defenses with four or five WRs on the field while Rhule is more old school. At his core, Rhule wants to run the rock. Greg thinks it will be a mix of both approaches, and Adam pointed out that Rhule isn’t a micromanager like Mike Zimmer has done in Minnesota at times. Greg thinks Teddy Bridgewater fits better in the Rhule’s run-heavy approach than Brady’s spread approach.
Greg thinks this passing game will be a combination of quick rhythm throws and scripted deep shots. Teddy can move well but not as well as Joe Burrow.
Greg really likes their receiving corps because they have every dimension you could want at the position. They’re going to run scripted verticals for Robby Anderson. He’s going to open this offense up and let them do other things because of his speed. D.J. Moore is a complete receiver. He’s big and can run but he’s not a true burner. Curtis Samuel is their moveable chess piece. And Ian Thomas is the kind of TE who Brady will detach from the formation as he did with Thaddeus Moss and like he saw Sean Payton do with the Saints TEs.
Graham believes Moore is a little overpriced in the mid-third round. He’s a volume receiver and there’s more competition for targets this season. He scored just four touchdowns last year and he was a floor receiver as a WR2.
The Panthers have some O-line issues and they’re likely to be a bottom-10 group. They’re below average at guard. The Bills didn’t want John Miller back and the Panthers didn’t draft an offensive lineman. Russell Okung has played well when healthy, but that didn’t happen enough in 2019.
The Panthers are going to have a competition for the handcuff role between Mike Davis, Reggie Bonnafon, and Jordan Scarlett. They don’t have a dependable second option behind Christian McCaffrey, which led to a 93% snap share for Christian McCaffrey last season.
The Panthers hope that P.J. Walker can push Will Grier for the backup QB spot. Adam said we need to remember that he had NFL chances before his XFL success and he was on and off the Colts practice squad.
They want Brian Burns to develop into a big-time rusher, and Yetur Gross-Matos and Stephen Weatherly should help in that department. Greg said Weatherly flashed at times in Minnesota. This secondary has a lot of questions, which is why their pass rush is going to be so critical. Adam said Troy Pride put himself on the map at the Senior Bowl but his tape was average, and Jeremy Chinn is a better athlete than a football player.
Brolley’s fantasy Takeaways
I agree with Graham that D.J. Moore is slightly overpriced. If I’m selecting a WR in the third round, I’m looking for a guy with more potential to finish in the top-five at the position than he currently possesses. The Panthers suddenly have a loaded receiving corps after landing Robby Anderson this off-season, and he’ll have to contend with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. I’m anticipating Bridgewater to distribute passes a little more evenly this season than Kyle Allen and company did last season, and Moore isn’t going to get a ton of big-play chances with Teddy. I prefer drafting higher upside WRs that are being drafted behind him like Allen Robinson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Adam Thielen, and Calvin Ridley.
I’ve never been a huge Bridgewater fan, but I’m going to own a lot of Teddy best-ball shares this summer as my QB2/3. Bridgewater has no QB competition with just Will Grier and P.J. Walker behind him. His receiving corps is a top-10 unit if you include Christian McCaffrey. Bridgewater has this year’s hotshot young offensive coach calling plays for him in Joe Brady, who is going to spread defenses out with these receivers. The Panthers are also going to throw it a metric ton with potentially the league’s worst defense. Add it all up and it’s more than worth spending a free pick on Teddy with his ADP at 170+ picks.
New Orleans Saints
Emmanuel Sanders is a great fit for this offense. He can run every route in the playbook, and he’s great after the catch. He’ll pair perfectly with both Drew Brees and Michael Thomas.
Greg said Brees has been losing energy on his deep throws recently, but he’s still one of the best in the quick passing game. Scott said Brees doesn’t have the upside that he once had. Taysom Hill really hurts his ceiling with his red-zone work.
The Cesar Ruiz pick wasn’t sexy, but the Saints are always looking to fortify the interior of their O-line for Brees. They could have the best O-line in the league.
Alvin Kamara had an ankle injury early last season, and he never could get back to full strength. He wasn’t forcing missed tackles when he came back, and he got unlucky with touchdowns with just six scores after finding the end zone 31 times in his first two years. Latavius Murray never got the Mark Ingram role when Kamara was healthy.
Adam said the Saints don’t know who their starting QB will be in 2021. They want to take a look at Jameis Winston this year to see how he learns. They’re intrigued by him and they like that he’s very durable. Winston has a reputation for being pretty sharp picking up offenses off the field, but he loses his mind on the field. Hill had a pretty significant injury history at BYU, and he’ll be 30 years old this season.
Adam Trautman is big and pretty athletic, and he fits what they do. They’ll move him around the formation and do some interesting things with him.
Sean Payton likes players like Ty Montgomery, who can line up all over the field. He’ll scheme some looks up for him.
Demario Davis was one of the best LBs last year. They have lots of versatile pieces in their secondary. Greg called Chauncey Gardner-Johnson the Saints version of Isaiah Simmons. Malcolm Jenkins can play man on tight ends. They can play single-high safety with Marcus Williams.
Brolley’s fantasy Takeaways
Emmanuel Sanders could be a perfect fit for this Saints offense with his route-tree and inside-outside versatility, but I’m not too excited about his fantasy potential. Sanders doesn’t have a huge fantasy ceiling with Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara commanding so much volume. Thomas has also been matchup-proof early in his career so Sanders isn’t going to get a bump when Thomas gets matchups against top CBs. Sanders will get a QB upgrade going from Jimmy G and Joe Flacco to Drew Brees, and he’ll play in a pass-happier offense. I still don’t see a ton of upside at 33 years old in a new offense at his current ninth-round ADP.
Alvin Kamara is my fourth overall player behind Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliott and just ahead of Dalvin Cook and Michael Thomas. The Saints upgraded the interior of their offensive line, Kamara should be back to full health, and he should have better touchdown luck.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady likes 12 personnel and the Buccaneers certainly have the personnel to run it more this year with Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard, and Cameron Brate.
Scott said Bruce Arians’ slot receivers almost always crush, and he gets Brady this year who loves to feed his slot receivers. If the Buccaneers do play with more 12 personnel this season, it would be a departure for Arians and a bit of a concern for Chris Godwin.
Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson are also slot types too, which could hurt Godwin if they bump him outside more even when they’re in 11 personnel. Godwin supporters need to root for Justin Watson to win the battle for the #3 WR role during training camp since he’ll play primarily on the outside and keep Godwin in the slot.
Adam said they’re keeping Howard around just because of Gronk’s age and injury history. Howard played lackadaisical more than anything last year, which won’t fly playing with Brady. Greg said Howard is frustrating because he clearly has a ton of ability. Howard fits what Brady likes to do with his TEs with Howard’s athleticism down the seams and in the middle of the field. Howard needs to be more precise because Brady won’t accept sloppy play
Adam said Ronald Jones is the starter heading into camp, and they drafted Ke’Shawn Vaughn to be the #2 RB this season. The organization is going to give RoJo the first chance to be the starter because they feel like he improved last year, but he needs to be more consistent to keep the job. Adam has no idea who will lead this backfield in targets, adding that it’s up in the air who will be the third-down back.
Greg sees Jones and Vaughn as different kinds of backs. Jones is an explosive back and a hard runner while Vaughn is a grinder back — he reminded Greg of Sony Michel. Vaughn has good contact balance and he has some ability as a receiver, but he’s not an explosive player. Seventh-round pick Raymond Calais is an explosive player.
Graham has never been a fan of Jones, and he thinks Vaughn is a more creative runner. Vaughn does everything reasonably well but he doesn’t stand out in any one area.
The plan is for Tristan Wirfs to play right tackle.
Todd Bowles loves big physical corners and he’s got them in Tampa. It wasn’t too long ago that the fantasy industry targeted this secondary, but Greg thinks they have the chance to become really good over the course of this season.
Brolley’s fantasy Takeaways
A big camp battle to follow this August will be the competition for the #3 WR job in Tampa between perimeter WR Justin Watson and slot WRs Scott Miller and Tyler Johnson. Why is that battle important for fantasy? It could determine Chris Godwin’s fantasy fortunes this season. Godwin will play on the perimeter more in 11 personnel if slot types Miller or Johnson win the #3 job, whereas Godwin would stick mostly to the slot in 11 personnel if perimeter WR Watson wins the #3 job. I think Watson is the best receiver in the battle for the #3 WR job, and it’s in the best interests for the Buccaneers to keep Godwin in the slot. However, Watson may not be the best fit with a Brady-led offense compared to a Jameis Winston-led offense since he does more of his work deeper down the field. Arians may prefer to get another underneath-to-intermediate receiver on the field for Brady in either Miller or Johnson. This battle will be a fascinating one to watch.
The Buccaneers will have another fascinating battle to follow between Ronald Jones, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Dare Ogunbowale, and Raymond Calais. Jones will likely open camp as the early-down back and Ogunbowale would likely be the favorite to be Tom Brady’s hurry-up back, but they’re not exactly stellar options. Vaughn will compete with Jones to be the lead runner while Calais will push Ogunbowale for a receiving role. Vaughn and Calais are at a bit of a disadvantage as rookies heading into an offense led by Brady, who expects a lot out of every player that takes the field with him. I get the feeling this Buccaneers backfield is going to be totally gross for fantasy for the second straight season.
