Several seasons ago, I introduced a metric for finding big-play potential among DLs and LBs called Backfield Impact (BI). Backfield Impact measures an IDP’s ability to get into his opponent’s backfield and be disruptive by factoring in sacks, QB hits, QB hurries, and tackles for loss (TFL). Essentially, anytime a defender causes trouble by beating their opponent and getting into the opposition’s kitchen. The important addition to this metric is the inclusion of TFL. Defenders should also get credit for a sack-worthy rep even if the offense runs the ball.
Through BI and BI/S (Backfield Impact per Snap) we’ve been able to uncover some top-tier big-play threats heading into each season. We’ve also been able to predict regression for some players who might have gotten extremely lucky the year prior.
Let’s see if we can’t uncover some big-play opportunity for 2020. We’ll dive in with a review of the top 20 in sacks in 2019 for defensive linemen*:
*Since most leagues still divide EDGE defenders into DL and LB, we will continue to divide them here so that these lists can be useful for the majority of IDP leagues.
Sacks
| Name | Sacks |
| Cameron Jordan | 15.5 |
| Danielle Hunter | 14.5 |
| Aaron Donald | 12.5 |
| Joey Bosa | 11.5 |
| Justin Houston | 11 |
| Josh Allen | 10.5 |
| Maxx Crosby | 10 |
| Arik Armstead | 10 |
| Myles Garrett | 10 |
| Jordan Phillips | 9.5 |
| Cameron Heyward | 9 |
| Carlos Dunlap | 9 |
| Nick Bosa | 9 |
| Chris Jones | 9 |
| Sam Hubbard | 8.5 |
| Brandon Graham | 8.5 |
| Matt Ioannidis | 8.5 |
| Yannick Ngakoue | 8 |
| Frank Clark | 8 |
| Everson Griffen | 8 |
We had 10 DLs with double-digit sacks last season (if we round up Jordan Phillips’ 9.5 takedowns). One thing I always look for is the presence of outliers at the top. Whether it’s Aaron Donald’s 20.5 sacks in 2018 or Justin Houston’s 22 sacks in 2014, these individual spikes usually result in overvaluing these players in the next few years.
2019 didn’t produce any high-end outliers from DLs, which makes evaluating BI/S for DLs this year even more reliable. We expect about 14-16 sacks from the top DLs, and that’s exactly what we saw in 2019.
Now that we’ve isolated the sexiest (and likely most valuable for fantasy) stat, let’s view that production within the context of Backfield Impact.
Backfield Impact (BI)
Backfield Impact combines the most important trackable statistics that indicate that a defender is getting into the backfield: Sacks, QB hits, QB hurries, and TFL.
Let’s take a look at the top-10 in BI in 2019 for DLs:
| Name | BI (Backfield Impact) |
| Nick Bosa | 118 |
| Danielle Hunter | 115 |
| Aaron Donald | 102.5 |
| Cameron Jordan | 102 |
| Cameron Heyward | 92 |
| Joey Bosa | 92 |
| Calais Campbell | 91 |
| Arik Armstead | 86.5 |
| Brandon Graham | 85 |
| Everson Griffen | 81 |
Takeaways:
Danielle Hunter, Cameron Jordan, and Aaron Donald - the top 3 sack producers at DL - are predictably near the top of this list. That shows that they didn’t get particularly lucky with their sacks, and therefore are more likely to produce at an elite level again this year.
Nick Bosa - who by many accounts had a phenomenal year - was rather unlucky when it comes to sacks. Expect Bosa to surpass that double-digit sack number this season, and possibly near the top of the leaderboard in sacks.
Some vets continue to get it done. Check out Calais Campbell, Brandon Graham, and Everson Griffen rounding out the top 10 in Backfield Impact. Some elite pass rushers can go past their prime and still provide top-shelf production. Adding some of these “past their prime” DLs whose ADPs have fallen can be great values in drafts.
Backfield Impact is a good way to compare the elite every-down big-play options at DL. But what about the ones who - through injury or usage - didn’t post 900+ snaps? How can we project them into increased health/role?
That’s where Backfield Impact per Snap comes in.
Backfield Impact per Snap (BI/S)
To find out who made the most of their opportunity, let’s take a look at the top 10 in BI/S for DLs with at least 500 snaps in 2019:
| Name | BI/S |
| Nick Bosa | 7.8 |
| Danielle Hunter | 8.6 |
| Myles Garrett | 8.8 |
| Justin Houston | 9.0 |
| Calais Campbell | 9.0 |
| Marcus Davenport | 9.0 |
| Aaron Donald | 9.0 |
| Robert Quinn | 9.0 |
| J.J. Watt | 9.1 |
| Joey Bosa | 9.1 |
Takeaways:
Nick Bosa, ladies and gentlemen. He DOMINATED last season. As a rookie. Buy All. The. Nick. Bosa. Shares.
Myles Garrett could provide a discount. A lot of drafters have let him slip because he wasn’t on the top of many leaderboards last season (ya know, cuz of the whole helmet throwing incident). If he repeats that BI/S, Garrett could post 14-16 sacks this season.
Marcus Davenport flashed in just 533 snaps. He presents a great opportunity to snag a potential DL1 later in drafts.
Cameron Jordan just missed the top 10 posting a 9.3 BI/S.
Honorable Mention
Each year, I like to point out some players who put up a strong BI/S score but flew under the radar for various reasons.
- The first honorable mention goes to Cameron Wake. In his final season, on limited snaps, Wake posted a 6.3 BI/S on 195 snaps. Damn. He was a perennial BI/S leaderboard tenant. Nice to see him throw up an other-worldly number on his way out.
- Another strong showing for Vinny Curry, posting a 9.4 BI/S on just 415 snaps. It’s clear coaches like to use him in a limited but effective fashion. It’s possible that he’s the type of player who gets gassed on high snap counts, so he’s used in high-leverage situations.
For a look at how BI/S impacts LBs, check out the IDP Metrics: Backfield Impact - LBs article.
