Welcome back!
We’re down to eight teams vying for glory and all four of these matchups are a lot of fun on paper. Aaron Rodgers is the MVP, but can he overcome what has been the best defense in the NFL? Ravens-Bills has shootout potential with Baltimore’s offense surging as does Browns-Chiefs. And can Tom Brady erase his regular season struggles against the Saints?
We’ve got a nice spread of games between the Chiefs (-10.5) and Packers (-7) set as strong favorites and two games that project much closer with the Bills set -2.5 favorites and the Saints at just -3. I can’t wait.
Here are the notes I found researching the Divisional Round slate:
L.A. Rams at Green Bay
Rams Stat-Pack
The Rams are implied to score just 19.5 points, which is the lowest on the Divisional Round slate. The second-lowest team total is the Browns at 23.3.
A lot has been made of Jared Goff’s cold weather splits this week as game-time temperatures are supposed to be around 32 degrees at Lambeau. In the eight career games that Goff has played in under 50 degree temperatures, he’s been held under 12 fantasy points 6 times.
So, if this game plays out like Vegas expects and the Rams are trailing — does that mean we’ll see Goff chuck it a ton? Not necessarily. Among the eight remaining playoff teams, the Rams are the second-most run-heavy team when they’re behind on the scoreboard (41%).
Meanwhile, Green Bay ended up giving up the 9th-most EPA per carry this season.
If the Rams do have to throw more, it’ll likely lead to huge games from Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp because Sean McVay really condensed the passing attack last week to these two. Kupp (9 targets) and Woods (8) combined for a massive 68% share of Rams’ targets.
Over his last five starts, Cam Akers has handled 22, 31, 16, 25, and 30 touches.
In this span, Akers is averaging 16.6 fantasy points per game — which would have made him the RB13 behind Myles Gaskin (16.8) over the full season.
Jalen Ramsey is giving up just 0.60 yards per coverage snap, which is tied with Jaire Alexander for third-best among qualified cornerbacks.
Opposing offenses have largely stayed away from Ramsey’s side of the field, targeting him on just 11.4% of his coverage snaps. That’s the third-lowest rate among qualified cornerbacks.
Overall, the Rams are the No. 1 defense in yards per play allowed (4.6), they’ve allowed a score on just 28% of drives (fewest), and they’ve forced a sack on 8.8% of dropbacks (second-best).
Packers Stat-Pack
For as good as Aaron Rodgers has been, he definitely benefited from a fairly easy schedule. Rodgers averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game in four contests against teams with top-8 pass defenses and 25.9 FPG in his 12 other games.
Rodgers threw 29 TDs inside of the 10-yard line, which is the most by a quarterback since 2016, when Rodgers threw 25 TDs inside of the 10-yard line.
The Rams allowed just 10 passing TDs inside of the 10-yard line this season, fourth-fewest.
If we remove the Week 2 game when he left early, Davante Adams averaged 27.2 fantasy points per game in 13 healthy contests.
The most fantasy points per game scored by a wide receiver all-time was Jerry Rice (26.2) in 1987 when he scored 22 TDs in 12 games.
Robert Tonyan was a scoring machine to end the year. Even though he averaged just 34.1 yards per game over his final seven games, Tonyan scored six times in this span.
Tonyan ended the season as the TE5 in fantasy points per game behind Kelce, Waller, Kittle, and Andrews.
This isn’t an easy spot for the Packers run game, either. The Rams are giving up just 3.6 yards and -0.17 EPA per carry. Both of those figures rank third-fewest.
However, Aaron Jones has thrived in similar spots in his career. Over the last two seasons, he’s averaged 23.4 fantasy points per game when the Packers are at home and favored by six or more points. In all other games, Jones averages 17.6 FPG.
Baltimore at Buffalo
Ravens Stat-Pack
- Over their last six games, the Ravens are averaging 6.8 yards per play (second-best).
- Baltimore has scored on 57% of their possessions in this span, tied with Tampa Bay for the highest rate in the league.
- In this stretch, Lamar Jackson is averaging 27.4 fantasy points per game. When he finished as the QB1 last year, he averaged 27.7 FPG.
- Jackson has gone over 80 yards rushing in every game in this span.
- However, this matchup with the Bills is one of the tougher ones Jackson has seen as a runner this season. Buffalo predominantly plays zone coverage, which inherently limits QBs scrambling lanes and it’s a part of the reason Jackson was held to 40 yards rushing against Buffalo in 2019.
- In that game, the Bills played zone coverage on 16 of Jackson’s 25 pass attempts.
- Marquise Brown’s late-season surge has coincided directly with Jackson’s. Over his last seven games, Brown is averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game — which would have made him the WR14 tied with Julio Jones for the full year.
- This is an amazing spot for Mark Andrews against this Bills defense that allowed a league-high 5.8 receptions and 62.6 yards (second-most) to tight ends during the regular season. Last week, Colts TEs combined for 14 catches, 136 yards, and a TD in this matchup.
Bills Stat-Pack
- Over their last six games, the Bills are averaging 6.6 yards per play (third-best).
- Buffalo has scored on 54% of their possessions in this span (fourth-best).
- Josh Allen is averaging a whopping 28.8 fantasy points per game and has scored 30+ four times in this stretch.
- Stefon Diggs is on a heater, too. Over his last six games, Diggs has put up 25.8 fantasy points per game.
- Again, the WR1 Davante Adams averaged 27.2 fantasy points per game in 13 healthy contests this year.
- Diggs has now caught six or more passes in an unreal 16-of-17 games this season.
- Even though John Brown goose-egged, the usage was there. He was on the field for every single one of Josh Allen’s dropbacks.
- With Zack Moss out of the lineup, we’ll get Devin Singletary back in a workhorse role. When Moss missed (or was limited) in Week 3-6, Singletary played on 79% of the team’s snaps and averaged 15.8 touches per game.
- The Ravens held the Titans offense in check last week, but that was only because of poor play-calling. Tennessee went 57% run-heavy on early downs in the Wild Card round and were stuffed for 2.4 yards per play on these runs. Buffalo won’t do that. Over their last six games, the Bills have gone 60% pass-heavy on early downs.
Cleveland at Kansas City
Browns Stat-Pack
- The last time the Browns played in the Divisional Round was in 1995. Baker Mayfield wasn’t born yet.
- Mayfield has been one of the most efficient passers in the league off of play-action, averaging 9.5 YPA and a 121.9 passer rating.
- When he doesn’t use play-action, Mayfield averages just 6.4 YPA and a 84.8 rating.
- The Chiefs have allowed just 10.7 fantasy points per game to receivers that lineup outside this season, which is second-fewest behind the Rams (9.7).
- 64% of the production that the Chiefs allowed to wide receivers this season came through the slot, which is the third-highest rate among all teams.
- Jarvis Landry runs 55% of his routes from the slot.
- Over his last six games, Landry is averaging 6.5 receptions, 76.8 yards, and 18.2 fantasy points per game.
- Nick Chubb has now gone over 100 scrimmage yards or scored a touchdown in 11-straight games.
- This is quietly a nice spot for Austin Hooper against this Chiefs defense that gave up the eighth-most receptions and fifth-most yards per game to tight ends.
- Hooper has 37 targets over his last four games.
Chiefs Stat-Pack
- Even though the Chiefs offense wasn’t really playing up to their potential, Patrick Mahomes still averaged 25.9 DraftKings points per game over the final five weeks.
- Mahomes never scored fewer than 20 points in this span.
- Travis Kelce averaged 20.9 fantasy points per game this season, which is most all-time ahead of Rob Gronkowski’s 2011 season (20.7 FPG).
- Over the final eight games, Kelce averaged 8.1 receptions and 114.4 yards per game.
- Cleveland allowed the fourth-most receptions per game to tight ends during the regular season and just gave up 7/62/1 to Eric Ebron last week.
- With Sammy Watkins looking unlikely to play, remember that Mecole Hardman is Tyreek Hill’s direct backup and didn’t see a big boost in his role when Watkins missed time mid-season. Hardman only played on 48% of the Chiefs snaps in Week 6-11 when Watkins was out.
- Demarcus Robinson averaged 5 targets/game without Watkins and 3.2 with him in the lineup.
- This is just a note for if Clyde Edwards-Helaire misses… but in Week 16 when CEH was out, Darrel Williams (70%) out-snapped Le’Veon Bell (30%) by a wide margin. Williams had 14 touches to Bell’s 8.
- Then, Week 17 was the Darwin Thompson game where Bell sat and Williams barely played.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Buccaneers Stat-Pack
- Over his last eight games, Tom Brady is averaging a ridiculous 327 yards per game and owns a 22:5 TD-to-INT ratio.
- However, Brady’s two of Brady’s 3 worst games from a passer rating perspective came against the Saints this season.
- New Orleans’ front-seven did a phenomenal job generating pressure on Brady in these two games, forcing disruption on 43% of Brady’s dropbacks.
- When pressured, Brady’s passer rating is 56.8.
- When he’s kept clean, Brady’s rating is 115.1.
- The first game that Antonio Brown played this season was against the Saints in Week 9.
- Mike Evans in his career vs. Marshon Lattimore: 1/13 (6 targets) > 5/55 (13 targets) > 7/147/1 (7 targets) > 4/86 (6 targets) > 0/0 (3 targets) > 1/2/1 (4 targets) > 4/64 (6 targets).
- Leonard Fournette played on 85% of Bucs’ snaps last week.
Saints Stat-Pack
- In two previous meetings against this Bucs’ secondary, Drew Brees completed 71% of his passes for 382 yards and a 6:0 TD-to-INT ratio.
- Latavius Murray hasn’t missed a game over the last two years, but when he’s been limited to just a couple of carries, Alvin Kamara has gone off. In two games where Murray has seen 3 or fewer carries over the last two years, Kamara has scored 37.1 and 38.4 fantasy points.
- Obviously, the spot is tough for Kamara on the ground. The Buccaneers allowed a league-low 3.29 yards per carry and just 6.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backs this year.
- However, it’s a great spot for Kamara as a receiver. Tampa allowed a league-high 6.3 receptions per game to opposing backs.
- Michael Thomas looked great in his return last week and got his usual role, running a route on 35 of Brees’ 40 dropbacks against the Bears.
- Thomas got hurt in Week 1 against the Bucs and actually made his return off of I.R. in Week 9 against them, too. But, he previously owned them in his previous two outings against Todd Bowles’ unit last year going for 11/182/2 and 8/114/1.
