Because of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States, many Pro Day’s were canceled nationwide. Outside of a few players like Clemson’s Tee Higgins who got to have their Pro Day, the majority athletic testing data we have for the 2020 Draft Class comes from the NFL Combine. While only a few Combine metrics positively correlate to future fantasy points, athletic baselines are incredibly important in our evaluations. Athleticism matters in athletics.
The Combine is far from the be-all and end-all, but understanding what these athletic thresholds say and how to apply them is key.
Quarterbacks
Team interviews are by far the most important aspect of the NFL Combine for passers. Having quarterbacks answer questions about their film and their understanding of concepts is invaluable in determining whether or not they’re fit for the NFL. In general, I largely ignore Combine “performance” for quarterbacks. I couldn’t care less about how players look throwing the ball in their underwear to open receivers running against air. That’s what film study is for.
The Combine is great, however, for setting athletic baselines at each position and Jalen Hurts confirmed just how dynamic he is in Indy. Hurts ran a 4.59 forty-yard dash, which was good enough to rank in the 95th percentile among all quarterbacks to enter the NFL Combine all-time. Hurts still needs to develop as a passer, but his fantasy upside is appetizing since he can add so much value with his legs. Hurts scored 43 rushing touchdowns and averaged over 5.3 yards per carry in his college career.
Justin Herbert and Jordan Love both unsurprisingly tested well in Indy, too. Herbert and Love don’t have near the rushing production that Hurts accumulated in college, but they are both fantastic athletes in their own right. Hebert ran a 4.68 forty yard-dash -- giving him a strong 86th percentile score -- while Love’s 4.74 forty ranked in the 77th percentile all-time. Even though Herbert and Love’s game doesn’t center as much around running as Hurts, both are more than quick enough to escape pressure and add fantasy value on the ground. Herbert was especially under-utilized as a runner in college.
Jake Fromm, on the other hand, tested as a marginal NFL athlete. Per PlayerProfiler, Fromm’s SPARQ score (a composite score from all the Combine drills) ranked in the 17th percentile. Fromm’s “poor” testing isn’t a surprise, but his lack of mobility does limit his upside for our game. Jake Luton and Jacob Eason also tested out as marginal NFL athletes, earning bottom-10th percentile SPARQ scores.
2020’s QB1 Joe Burrow and QB2 Tua Tagovailoa both did not participate in the Combine. Burrow had nothing to prove by throwing and going through the drills on-field. While it’d be nice to get an official testing number, we know that Burrow can scramble and is quick enough to add some fantasy value with his legs. Tua didn’t test or throw because of his hip injury.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor had a performance to remember at the Combine. After adjusting for weight, Taylor’s 4.39 forty-yard dash time made him the 10th-fastest running back ever at the Combine. Saquon Barkley owns the 4th-fastest weight-adjusted forty all-time. Taylor also posted above-average scores in both the three-cone and 20-yard shuttles and tested above the 70th percentile in the broad and vertical jumps. It’s not a stretch to say Taylor is one of the most athletic backs to enter the league in recent memory.
Cam Akers and D’Andre Swift’s Combine performance got lost in the hype around Taylor, but both backs posted strong forty-yard dash times. Akers ran a 4.47 and Swift ran a 4.48, giving both backs 80th percentile (or better) weight-adjusted speed. Meanwhile, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s 4.60 forty time confirmed his lack of home run speed on tape, but he showed his burst and explosiveness off in the jumping drills. Edwards-Helaire’s 39.5-inch vertical was third-best among running backs at this year’s Combine and only a little behind A.J. Dillon’s position-best 41-inch vertical.
Other notes:
J.K. Dobbins did not test at the Combine, but I think he would have even more hype heading into the NFL Draft if he did. Dobbins tested as a 99th percentile athlete in Nike’s SPARQ rating back in 2016 at “The Opening” for incoming freshman. Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah and FSU RB Cam Akers finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in Nike’s athletic testing at this event.
Utah RB Zack Moss was apparently injured at the Combine, resulting in a 4.65 forty. Moss doesn’t win with home-run speed, but my Yards Created study revealed a similar lack of speed and suddenness. Still, Moss’ injury puts an asterisk on his Combine performance.
Maryland RB Anthony McFarland popped in Yards Created and quietly posted a strong 86th percentile weight-adjusted forty time (4.44 at 208lbs).
App State RB Darrynton Evans tested well in Indy, posting 80th percentile (or better) scores in the forty-yard dash, broad, and vertical jumps.
Wide Receivers
While zero Combine metrics positively correlate to future statistical production at wide receiver, my favorite way to look at metrics is by creating baselines. For example, according to Establish the Run’s Adam Levitan, 80% of the top-10 producers in fantasy over the last five years weighed at least 190lbs. Also, 88% of these top-10 fantasy finishers ran the forty-yard dash in under 4.60 seconds and 80% posted a vertical jump of at least 35-inches.
Of course, certain players like Tyreek Hill and DeSean Jackson buck the weight trend and use their speed and sharp cuts in and out of breaks to win against NFL cornerbacks. In theory, Henry Ruggs is one of those receivers. Ruggs is heavier than Hill (by 3lbs) and Jackson (by 13lbs) and blazed an absurd 4.27 forty yard-dash, giving him a blistering 90th percentile speed score once you adjust for weight. Ruggs’ forty time was the main attraction, but he also posted some of the best scores in the jumping drills -- posting top-4 marks for 2020 in both the broad and vertical at the position.
Like Ruggs, TCU’s Jalen Reagor is a high-ceiling prospect who wins with his explosive release off of the line of scrimmage. Reagor’s 4.47 forty yard dash was solid, but he stole the show with elite marks in the burst drills. With a ridiculous 42-inch vertical and 138-inch broad, Reagor’s explosiveness was on full display in Indy. Both Reagor’s vertical and broad scores ranked in the 98th percentile among receivers to test at the Combine all-time.
Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb had nothing to prove at the Combine, but still ran the 40-yard dash and went through the jumping drills. Jeudy’s 4.45 and Lamb’s 4.50 forty times were rock solid and both posted average scores in the vertical jump, with Lamb topping out at 34.5-inches and Jeudy hitting the 35-inch mark. Jeudy’s short shuttle -- which is a test of agility -- was horrible (3rd percentile) but I’m completely willing to write it off. Not only is Jeudy’s route running some of the best I have ever seen from a college prospect, but most Alabama skill position players have tested all relatively poorly at the Combine in recent years. I can’t explain why, but it’s notable that Josh Jacobs, Amari Cooper, Mark Ingram, and Calvin Ridley all tested as below-average athletes (relative to their positional baselines) or completely bombed a drill just like Jeudy did.
There were some scouts that questioned Justin Jefferson’s play speed, but he answered all of those concerns with a 4.43-forty yard dash (86th percentile for wide receivers). Lamb is the best wideout in this class with the ball in his hands -- and it’s not close -- but Jefferson’s explosiveness and ability to create after the catch might be second-best at the position.
Denzel Mims and Chase Claypool were two of the biggest winners from the NFL Combine. Mims had a ridiculous day in Indy, earning 85th percentile marks (or higher) in the 40-yard dash, three-cone drill and in the broad/vertical jumps. Mims profiles as a potentially dominant boundary receiver in the NFL and reminds me of Kenny Golladay. Claypool is a tweener coming out of Notre Dame. He’s 6-4, 248lbs but ran an unreal 4.42-forty yard dash -- giving him 99th percentile speed for his weight. Claypool also posted a casual 40.5-inch vertical, ranking in the 93rd percentile all-time. Claypool may just be a big slot receiver type at the next level but there is no denying that he is a freak athlete.
Other notes:
Laviska Shenault was hurt at the Combine (core muscle injury) and his poor testing metrics should probably be ignored.
K.J. Hamler didn’t test in Indy, but I’ll bet he would have pushed Ruggs for the fastest time at the Combine. I’m not sure he’d a sub-4.3 forty, but he looks like a 4.35 guy on tape. Hamler is tiny, though. He is 5-9 and weighs 178lbs and has a similar looking frame to Ravens WR Marquise Brown (5-9, 166lbs).
Both Brandon Aiyuk and Donovan Peoples-Jones sneakily posted fantastic scores in the jumping drills. Aiyuk’s broad and vertical jumps tested out in the 90th percentile while Peoples-Jones ridiculous 44.5-inch vertical was the best at the Combine.
Tight Ends
This tight end class is one of the worst groups in recent years and their performance at the Combine did nothing to change that notion. Albert Okwuegbunam posted a ridiculous 4.49 forty-yard dash time, but outside of that, there was little to get excited about from this group’s performance. Washington product Hunter Bryant is largely heralded as the top tight end of 2020 and had a decent day in Indy, earning a 61st percentile SPARQ score. Both Hunter and FAU’s Harrison Bryant had nearly identical forty-yard dash times (4.73 and 4.74).
Cole Kmet didn’t produce much at Notre Dame but had a decent Combine. His forty-yard dash was just slightly faster than Hunter Bryant and Harrison Bryant, earning him an 80th percentile weight-adjusted speed score. On the flipside, Dayton’s Adam Trautman is an elite producer -- he went 70/916/14 in his senior season -- but his 4.80 forty-yard dash left a lot to be desired.
