Average draft position is a very useful metric to look at when planning your draft day strategy. It’s important to get value for each one of your picks in your fantasy drafts, and there’s no better way to recognize value than by being familiar with the ADP of each player. Taking things a step further, we’ve decided to put together this article to spotlight players that we feel are being either overvalued or undervalued in drafts. ADP is living, breathing, constantly evolving information so I’ll be tracking ADP movement and updating this article as we progress through the summer to keep you up to speed.
Note: All ADP data used in this article is courtesy of our partners at the NFFC and the data is used from drafts over the previous week.
Removed since the last update: Derrius Guice, Damien Williams
Added since the last update: Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Lindsay
Dak Prescott, DAL (ADP: 61, QB3)
Dak and Kyler Murray have been switching back and forth as QB3 and QB4 so far this summer. We’ve got Dak projected for more fantasy points and he’s my choice between the two. He was last year’s QB3, they’ve added CeeDee Lamb, and he’s playing on a one-year “prove it” deal.
Kyler Murray, ARI (ADP: 66, QB4)
Murray is the QB fantasy owners seem to feel will take the biggest leap forward in 2020. He finished his rookie campaign as QB11 in FPG but he’s being taken as QB3 this year. A lot has to go right for him to finish at QB3, and while the addition of DeAndre Hopkins certainly helps, he doesn’t look like a value at his current ADP. Updated 8/2: Murray and Dak continue to flip flop between QB3 and QB4 but either way Dak looks like the better value.
Matt Ryan, ATL (ADP: 92, QB7)
Ryan’s ingredients for fantasy success – plenty of weapons to throw to, a suspect run game and a lousy defense – are all still in place for 2020. I like Ryan but he looks overvalued at his current ADP. He finished last year as QB12 and we have him ranked as QB9 but he is being drafted as QB7.
Josh Allen, BUF (ADP: 100, QB9)
Allen has been a top-10 fantasy QB in each of the last two seasons and the Bills continue to do a nice job upgrading the talent around him. We have him as our QB7 and he’s being drafted as QB8 so his ADP looks to be about right. Updated 8/2: Wentz has jumped Allen for now but with the Philly WR core looking shakier right now Allen could easily hop back ahead of Wentz. Updated 8/15: Allen’s ADP has taken another step backwards since our last update. He’s gone from QB8 to QB9 to QB10 per the NFFC ADP data over the last month. He’s a value at his current price tag. Updated 9/4: Wentz’s stock has fallen with all the injuries in Philly so Allen is back up to QB9. He’s one of our favorite QB targets.
Carson Wentz, PHI (ADP: 107, QB10)
Wentz deserves a lot of credit for finishing as 2019’s QB14 in fantasy points per game considering virtually his entire WR core was wiped out by injury. The Eagles have done a great job restocking at WR and my sense is that Wentz is undervalued even as the 9th QB off the board in drafts this summer. Updated 8/2: Wentz has jumped Allen for now but with the Philly WR core looking shakier right now Allen could easily hop back ahead of Wentz. Updated 9/4: Wentz’s ADP has dropped a full round since mid-August as his receiving core is once again banged up and the Eagles have lost a couple of offensive linemen. He’s still a target of mine 100+ picks into a draft.
Aaron Rodgers, GB (ADP: 121, QB13)
Added 9/4: Rodgers is a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer but his reality for fantasy is that he hasn’t been a consistent starting option in years.There are still major questions about his receiving core behind Davante Adams and the Packers are transitioning into more of a run-heavy team. We have Rodgers ranked as QB20 and I’ll be passing on him at his current price tag.
Daniel Jones, NYG (ADP: 124, QB14)
Jones had some absolutely monster games last season, showing his upside for fantasy even though he never had his full complement of weapons healthy and on the field at the same time. We’re bullish on him in Year 2, and have him ranked as a low-end starter so he looks undervalued at his current high-end backup ADP. Updated 9/4: Jones’ ADP has dropped a full-round since mid-August making him even more attractive as the 14th QB off the board. He’s a great upside play for those who like to wait on drafting their QB.
Baker Mayfield, CLE (ADP: 145, QB16)
Fantasy owners may be holding a grudge against Mayfield for last year’s weak fantasy output but we think he’s a prime bounce-back candidate. He’s ranked as our QB12 but he’s being drafted squarely as a backup so he looks to be undervalued so far. Updated 8/15: He’s been steady as the 15th QB off the board but he’s going about a round later now than he was in mid-July so he’s a bit more affordable. Updated 9/2: His ADP has dropped 20+ spots since mid-July but it’s not like there have been bad reports coming out of Browns camp.
Jared Goff, LAR (ADP: 149, QB17)
Goff is just two years removed from a QB7 finish but isn’t getting any love from fantasy owners due to last year’s disappointing performance. The Rams dumped Brandin Cooks but they’re still deep at WR and TE, and he’s got enough to work with to be successful. He’s a tough call but there are some cheaper QB2s we have ranked higher.
Joe Burrow, CIN (ADP: 150, QB18)
We have a large discrepancy between our ranking of Burrow as QB13 and where he’s being drafted. Fantasy owners may be shying away because he’s a rookie on what they feel is an awful team, but he’s got weapons on offense and the Bengals will be trailing a lot which should be good for his fantasy output. He’s undervalued as a cheap QB2 who comes with some upside. Updated 8/15: Burrow is now QB15 in our rankings but he’s less than 2 fantasy points away from being our QB12.
Cam Newton, NE (ADP: 155, QB19)
Cam is cheap in fantasy drafts so far probably because he signed a low-ball 1-year deal that indicates he’s not even guaranteed to be the starter. It’s not a beautiful situation either, as New England’s weaponry is lacking, but Cam’s always been a strong fantasy option as long as he’s running so his health will be key. He’s a value at his current ADP because we know what the upside can be. He’s projected as our QB in terms of fantasy points per game.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN (ADP: 171, QB20)
Tannehill was a top-10 option last year but he’s being drafted as a mid-range backup signaling that fantasy owners don’t believe he can do it again. His 2019 YPA and TD% will be nearly impossible to duplicate but we still think he’ll be an efficient fantasy point scorer. He looks to be undervalued so far. Updated 8/15: Tannehill’s ADP has dropped 15 spots since our last update making him more appealing as a QB2 value pick. Updated 9/4: His ADP dropped another half-round over the last two weeks and he looks like a value as our QB14 on the site.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF (ADP: 183, QB21)
Fantasy owners are likely scared off after the Niners took the ball out of his hands in last year’s playoffs – and now Deebo is hurt – but Jimmy had some huge games last year (three 4-TD games from Week 8 on) and could be undervalued. He’s our QB18 compared to his QB22 ADP. Updated 9/4: The gap has closed between Jimmy’s ADP and our rankings. He’s being drafted as QB21 and he’s ranked as our QB20.
Gardner Minshew, JAC (ADP: 191, QB22)
Minshew was last year’s QB17 in FPG, this year’s supporting cast is better, and he’s no longer battling with Nick Foles. Fantasy owners may be chalking up Minshew Mania as a fluke as he’s not getting much love in drafts so far. He looks undervalued as we’ve got him ranked as our QB22 compared to his QB25 ADP. Updated 8/15: He’s going about a round later than he was a month ago making him even more appealing as a dirt-cheap QB2. Updated 9/2: His ADP has moved up from QB25 to QB22 since the last update which makes him less of a value but still a favorite cheap QB2 of mine.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (ADP: 6, RB5)
He’s a perfect fit for this offense and Andy Reid’s RBs have a history of fantasy greatness. The only potential fly in the ointment is the presence of Damien Williams, but we’re still higher than most on the undervalued Edwards-Helaire late in the second round. Updated 8/2: His overall ADP moved up a couple of spots over the last couple of weeks but expect a big move up now that Damien Williams has opted out of the 2020 season. Updated 8/15: He’s now moved up a full round and is consistently being drafted as the 6th RB off the board in the middle of Round 1. He’s our RB9 which technically makes him a little overvalued. Updated 9/4: CEH continues to climb draft boards as he’s now being taken as RB5 compared to our ranking of him as RB8.
Miles Sanders, PHI (ADP: 11, RB8)
The Eagles let Jordan Howard go and haven’t signed any meaningful competition for RB touches so fantasy owners are aggressively drafting Sanders in the back half of the first round, which is exactly where we think he should be. Updated 8/15: His ADP hasn’t budged in a month and it likely won’t unless the Eagles sign a veteran back. Updated 9/2: Hamstring tightness late in August hasn’t affected Sanders’ ADP at all.
Kenyan Drake, ARI (ADP: 14, RB12)
We love The Drake and the fantasy world at large agrees. He’s the guy in Arizona with David Johnson shipped off to Houston and he’s now being drafted late in the first round. He looks like a potential steal in leagues where he falls to the second. Updated 8/15: Drake is more often available in the early second round now than he was a month ago. He is a favorite of drafters on the Round 1/Round 2 turn. Updated 9/4: Drake has dipped from RB10 to RB12 since mid-August as he’s been in a walking boot and obviously not practicing. Indications are that the Cardinals don’t have any concerns about his Week One availability.
Austin Ekeler, LAC (ADP: 14, RB11)
We’ve got Ekeler slotted a little lower than his ADP. Those taking him early are banking on a big increase in carries with Melvin Gordon gone but that may not be the case. His value is driven by his role in the passing game which very likely takes a meaningful hit this year without Rivers. Updated 9/4: Ekeler’s ADP moved from 16 to 14 since our last update compared to our ranking of him as RB12.
Josh Jacobs, LV (ADP: 13, RB10)
Added 8/15. Jacobs displayed special traits as a runner last year and remains the unquestioned lead back for the Raiders in 2020. The only thing potentially capping his upside is his limited role in the passing game. GM Mike Mayock has indicated Jacobs will be used more as a receiver this year but the Raiders re-signed passing back specialist Jalen Richard and are listing rookie gadget player Lynn Bowden as a RB so additional targets for Jacobs could be hard to come by. He’s currently projected as our RB10 on the site so he appears to be a little undervalued in drafts. Updated 9/4: Jacobs’ ADP moved from RB13 to RB10 since mid-August as the team continues to talk up his likely expanded role in the passing game.
Jonathan Taylor, IND (ADP: 31, RB16)
Fantasy owners are seeing the high-end potential of Taylor as the lead dog in Indy’s offense and are drafting him accordingly. He’s been moving up draft boards all offseason but Mack and Hines could still be potential roadblocks. Updated 8/2: Taylor moved from RB17 to RB19 in this update with Fournette and Conner which could be an indication of drafters placing more emphasis on continuity and being cautious with rookies. Updated 8/15: Taylor dipped down another spot in this update as the Colts continue to talk about using multiple backs. Updated 9/4: Taylor’s ADP has taken a big leap up since mid-August as guys like Fournette, Gordon and Gurley’s stock have seen their stock drop recently. We’re also seeing evidence out of Colts camp of a potentially larger role than anticipated in the passing game for Taylor which would be huge for his fantasy value.
Melvin Gordon, DEN (ADP: 38, RB20)
Gordon should own every meaningful backfield role (early downs, red zone, passing downs) in this improved offense and he feels a little undervalued right now. He’s looking like a great RB2 target in the third round if you grab a stud back and #1 receiver with your first two picks. Updated 9/4: Gordon’s ADP has taken a nosedive by almost a full round since our last update as the team maintains he’ll be in a timeshare with Phillip Lindsey. We still think he’ll be the lead dog and he’s our RB15 so I’d be very happy to get him at his current early fourth-round ADP.
Leonard Fournette, JAC (ADP: 47, RB22)
We have a big discrepancy here between our rankings and Fournette’s ADP. He’s our RB26 but he’s being drafted in the third round as RB18. He’ll likely score more TDs this year but his role in the passing game is in danger of taking a significant hit with Chris Thompson added. Updated 8/2: Leonard moved up a notch as is now being taken ahead of Jonathan Taylor but we’ve got Taylor ranked seven backs ahead of him. Updated 8/15: Fournette’s ADP has dipped a few spots and he’s now close to being available in the 4th round. His ranking on the site has actually moved up to RB24 but he’s still too expensive and we’re still not buying. Updated 9/4: Lenny was released by the Jaguars on 8/31 and has since been signed by Tampa Bay. It’s an extremely crowded backfield but if Fournette assumes the lead role he’ll be able to justify his fourth-round ADP..
David Johnson, HOU (ADP: 38, RB19)
Opinions on Johnson are all over the place, but we’re on the conservative side of things and not really targeting him. He will fill the Carlos Hyde role from a year ago but he’ll need to be more involved as a pass-catcher to justify his RB22 ADP, which may be difficult with Duke Johnson still on the roster. Updated 9/4: Johnson has reportedly looked good so far with no reports of health issues and he’s now being taken as a top-20 back. We’re officially out on him at this price tag.
Cam Akers, LAR (ADP: 48, RB23)
Akers has potential league-winning pick written all over him. He’s undervalued right now as fantasy owners are likely concerned with the presence of Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson in the Rams backfield. However, Akers is the best of the bunch and if he takes over this backfield, he’ll go down as a great late fourth/early fifth-round pick. Updated 8/2: Similar to Jonathan Taylor, Akers got jumped by a couple of veteran backs in this update as owners may be cooling off on rookies without getting a chance to see them play in the preseason. Updated 8/15: Akers has once again fallen a few spots in this update. He’s our RB20 and his ADP has dipped to RB28 so I am buying this potential league-winner as my RB3 in the 5th. Updated 9/4: Akers is flying up draft boards moving up eight spots and jumping from RB28 to RB23. Henderson has missed valuable practice time with a hamstring injury so drafters have become more bullish on Akers making an immediate impact.
Raheem Mostert, SF (ADP: 52, RB24)
Mostert’s ADP and our ranking seem to be in line with each other. We’ll see if the data starts to move based upon Mostert’s expressed interest to play elsewhere in 2020. Updated 8/15: Mostert has leapfrogged 5 RBs since mid-July now that his contract situation has been settled. Fantasy owners seem sold on him but we have a large discrepancy between our projection of Mostert as RB31 and his ADP of RB24 so I’m passing at his current price tag.
Kareem Hunt, CLE (ADP: 55, RB25)
Hunt received 10.9 opportunities per game last season and turned them into 12.7 PPR FPG which is extremely efficient. He should be usable as a third back or flex on a weekly basis, plus he carries enormous handcuff upside in the event Nick Chubb gets injured. He’s slightly undervalued based on our RB26 ranking but it looks like fantasy owners are generally in on Hunt. Updated 9/4: Our guy Adam Caplan has told us how much the Browns are enamored with Hunt and fantasy owners seem to agree as he’s now moved up from RB27 to RB25.
Mark Ingram, BAL (ADP: 56, RB26)
Added 8/15. Ingram was very efficient with the ball in his hands last year finishing as RB10 in PPR FPG on just 228 touches. He looks to be a little undervalued in drafts this year as fantasy owners appear worried about rookie J.K. Dobbins cutting into or even stealing his role. Barring injury, we believe Ingram will maintain a role large enough to make him a solid RB2 for fantasy. He’s currently ranked as our RB21. Updated 9/4: We’ve dropped Ingram down from RB21 to RB23 in our rankings as all reports on Dobbins have been absolutely glowing. HC John Harbaugh says Dobbins will have a “significant role” in the offense and Ingram’s ADP is down a hair from RB25 to RB26 since our last update.
Devin Singletary, BUF (ADP: 59, RB27)
Singletary’s value likely takes a hit with Buffalo’s drafting of RB Zack Moss but fantasy owners still seem to be overdrafting him based on his late-season usage as a rookie. There are lots of mouths to feed in Buffalo so we wouldn’t expect RB2 numbers. Updated 8/15: Zack Moss seems to be closing the gap in the minds of fantasy owners as Singletary has dropped a few spots and Moss has jumped up a bit over the last month. Updated 9/4: Singletary’s ADP has dropped another 6 spots since the last update and Moss has moved way up as the Buffalo backfield is looking like a true timeshare.
D’Andre Swift, DET (ADP: 61, RB29)
Added 8/15. Swift’s role in the Lions offense has yet to be defined but he’s likely looking at a timeshare with Kerryon Johnson. Detroit wasn’t a great landing spot for the rookie but we do know the Lions at least want to run it and Swift is a better receiver than Johnson so betting on his talent to win out makes him a viable 5th round pick for fantasy. His ADP is in line with our ranking of him as RB28 here on the site. Updated 9/4: Swift missed some time with a leg injury but returned to practice on 8/31. Johnson likely starts the season as the lead back but fantasy owners are still in on Swift. He’s moved up to RB21 in our rankings so he looks like a real value at his current ADP.
J.K. Dobbins, BAL (ADP: 67, RB30)
Dobbins is getting overdrafted so far based on his potential upside in the league’s best rushing offense. The problem is that while he will likely be a stud in 2021, he still has Mark Ingram (and possibly Gus Edwards to start the year) in front of him in 2020, so it will likely take an Ingram injury to get value from Dobbins at his current ADP. Updated 9/4: The reports on Dobbins have been fantastic and his head coach is calling for a “significant role” for him so we’re feeling better about his chances to return value at his ADP.
David Montgomery, CHI (ADP: 67, RB31)
While we’re not overly excited about the player, there aren’t many backs likely to log 250+ carries this year, and Montgomery is one of them. We have him ranked as RB22 and he is a nice fallback plan in the late fourth or early fifth rounds if you didn’t grab an RB2 earlier. He’s likely going so late due to his pedestrian rookie campaign. Updated 8/15: Montgomery has gone from a late 4th rounder to more often an early 5th rounder since mid-July. Updated 9/4: Montgomery’s groin injury may force him to miss the start of the regular season so fantasy owners have backed way off. His ADP has dropped 15 spots over the last two weeks and he’s gone from RB24 to RB31. If he only misses a game or two and returns to his usual large role he’ll be a value at his current ADP.
Zack Moss, BUF (ADP: 83, RB33)
Don’t be surprised if Moss gets about half the carries in this backfield and more goal-line/red-zone work than Devin Singletary. Based on our rankings, Singletary is being overvalued and Moss is being undervalued by fantasy owners so far. I’ll take Moss in the tenth over Singletary in the fifth. Updated 8/15: Moss’s ADP has gone from RB44 to RB 40 and from 112 overall to 103. It took a few weeks but his ADP has caught up to our rankings to the point that he’s now appropriately priced. Updated 9/4: Moss’ continues to climb draft boards as he leaps 20 spots from 103 to 83 since our last update. Reports are that his role in the passing game may be larger than expected and fantasy owners are warming to the possibility that Moss may get just as much work as Singletary.
Tarik Cohen, CHI (ADP: 85, RB34)
Cohen is undervalued in drafts so far (as are most Bears players by the way) as he had one of the quietest 79-catch seasons in NFL history. His 2019 YPR was putrid and is something that should easily be improved upon. We feel good about him as our RB30 compared to his RB37 ADP. Updated 8/2: Drafters seem to be leaning towards continuity and what they know and we’ve seen Cohen’s ADP rise almost a round over the last couple of weeks. Updated 8/15: Cohen’s ADP has gone from RB37 to RB33 since mid- July. Even with the big jump up draft boards he’s still a value as our 29th ranked back. Updated 9/4: Cohen’s ADP hasn’t moved despite the Montgomery injury as Cohen’s role in the offense likely remains unchanged with or without Montgomery.
Marlon Mack, IND (ADP: 93, RB35)
Mack should see a large reduction in opportunities this year thanks to the drafting of Jonathan Taylor and he has fallen down draft boards accordingly. He still looks a little overvalued though compared to his RB43 ranking here on the site probably because Colts coaches have gone out of their way to say this backfield will utilize multiple backs. Updated 8/15: Mack is going about a round earlier than he was in early August as the coaches continue to talk up his status as a returning starter. There’s a significant gap between his ADP and where we have him ranked on the site so I’ll be passing at his current price tag. Updated 9/4: Mack’s ADP is back down to where it was in mid-July as the hype train on Taylor is in high gear.
Phillip Lindsay, DEN (ADP: 95, RB37)
Added 9/4: We’ve viewed Lindsay as overvalued for months and we currently have him ranked as our RB51 which makes him one of the worst values on our board. Fantasy owners are buying into the narrative that Lindsay will split fairly evenly with Melvin Gordon but we just don’t see that happening. He’ll likely have a hard time returning value at his current ADP unless Gordon gets hurt.
Damien Harris, NE (ADP: 112, RB43 )
He’s worth a shot very late as the likely handcuff to Sony Michel. The Pats figure to run the rock plenty and Harris could have a meaningful full role if Michel gets injured or underwhelms again (3.7 YPC in 2019).Updated 8/2: Harris has moved from RB59 to RB55 and he’s being drafted a round and a half earlier than just a couple of weeks ago as Sony Michel continues to rehab his foot injury. Updated 8/15: Sony Michel remains on the active/PUP list but the Pats added Lamar Miller to the mix which dampens Harris’ outlook. His ADP hasn’t moved much. Updated 9/4: Harris’s ADP jumped up 45 spots in this update as it’s been reported he’s been the best skill position player in Patriots camp. However, he now has a hand injury which could put his Week One status in doubt.
Antonio Gibson, WAS (ADP: 116, RB--)
Added 8/15. Gibson is listed as a WR on the NFFC site but looking at his overall ADP he’d be about RB46/47 if he were listed as a back. Washington will find ways to get the football in his hands both as a runner and a receiver and the Football Team doesn’t have many exciting other options at either RB or WR. Based on our ranking of him as RB34 he looks to be a draft day value so far. Updated 9/4: He’s moved up half a round since mid-August as reports out of Washington have been very positive on him.
Sony Michel, NE (ADP: 121, RB45)
Michel looks undervalued right now as we have him ranked at RB35 compared to his RB40 ADP. The Pats will likely be a run-heavy offense and Michel is their best early-down option. Fantasy owners are probably a little wary of him coming off a down season in 2019. Updated 8/2: News of Michel not being healthy for the start of camp has moved him down a few spots over the last couple of weeks. Updated 8/15: Michel is still on the active/PUP list and doesn’t appear to be a lock for Week 1. The Pats have signed veteran Lamar Miller which isn’t a great sign for Michel’s anticipated availability. Michel’s ADP has plummeted from RB40 to RB47 since mid-July and from 106 overall to 127 over the last two weeks. We’ve downgraded him to RB37 here on the site.Updated 9/4: Michel moved up a couple of spots in this update as he’s now back and practicing with the team. Damien Harris has a hand injury which could put his Week One availability in doubt.
Boston Scott, PHI (ADP: 123, RB46)
Scott showed enough last season to earn some touches each week in 2020. How many touches remains to be seen but he’s a little undervalued right now considering his potential upside if Miles Sanders goes down. Updated 8/15: The Eagles have yet to add any veteran backs to the roster so Scott stands out as the Eagles’ likely #2 and a handcuff to Sanders. His ADP has climbed from RB49 to RB46 and he’s moved up 9 spots from the 11th round to the laet 10th.
Duke Johnson, HOU (ADP: 128, RB48)
We have our guy Dukie ranked almost 10 RBs higher than his ADP. Fantasy owners seem to be scared off by the addition of David Johnson to the Houston backfield but Duke will still be involved. Once you get to the double-digit rounds, Dukie should be in play as a PPR value. Updated 8/15: He’s jumped ahead of three other backs since mid-July and he’s going about a round earlier. We’re still higher on him than most and he still looks like a value in the 10th. Updated 9/4: Dukie has dropped a round since the last update as fantasy owners are feeling more confident in David Johnson after a solid camp. I’m in on him here as he also has handcuff value for the oft-injured D.J.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (ADP: 142, RB50)
It looks as if fantasy owners are looking at the Bucs backfield as a Jones/Vaughn committee with Jones and Vaughn being drafted within a few picks of each other. News of Vaughn winning the starting gig or impressive camp reports would push him way up draft boards. Updated 8/2: Vaughn is another rookie RB that drafters seem to be cooling on with the lack of a preseason. He’s being drafted almost a round later than he was a couple of weeks ago. Updated 8/15: It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Vaughn as he missed time due to Covid-19 and the Bucs signed veteran LeSean McCoy. Vaughn is back with the team now but there’s a real chance he starts the season behind both McCoy and Ronald Jones. The rookie’s ADP has dropped from RB36 to RB43 over the last two weeks. He’s now a 10th or 11th round pick after going regularly in the 8th just a few weeks ago. Updated 9/4: Vaughn’s free fall continues now that the Bucs have signed Leonard Fournette. It’s hard to see a path to fantasy relevance for Vaughn in 2020.
Nyheim Hines, IND (ADP: 150, RB52)
Hines will still lead the Colts backfield in targets and catches but we’re likely looking at three backs involved on a weekly basis which is why his ADP is around the 150 mark. He could be a tad undervalued though as he may have sneaky PPR value playing with Captain Checkdown Philip Rivers this season. Updated 8/15: Hines’ ADP moved from 150 to 145 and RB53 to RB50 since early August as the Colts coaches keep talking up this backfield as a committee of sorts. Updated 9/4: Hines’ ADP has dropped a few spots as there’s talk of Jonathan Taylor having more of a role in the passing game than first imagined.
Adrian Peterson, WAS (ADP: 158, RB55)
Added 8/15. Peterson looks to be back in business at age 35 as Washington’s best early-down option. Derrius Guice is out of the picture which makes Peterson’s path to fantasy relevance pretty clear. He won’t give us much in the passing game and rookie Antonio Gibson could be used liberally as a compliment but Peterson still looks to be very much undervalued in drafts. He’s ranked as our RB35.
Ryquell Armstead, JAC (ADP: 153, RB53)
Armstead has been one of our favorite late-round dart throw guys. The Jags obviously are not enamored with Leonard Fournette and could decide to give Armstead a chance as their lead runner at any time. Updated 9/4: Armstead’s ADP is on the rise with Fournette out of town. He’s missed significant camp time though and may be in a committee to start the season.
Joshua Kelley, LAC (ADP: 161, RB56)
The loss of Melvin Gordon leaves behind a huge hole in the Charger backfield for early down carries and short-yardage work. Austin Ekeler may get some but either veteran Justin Jackson or rookie Joshua Kelley could emerge as that guy. We’re betting on Kelley who looks to be undervalued so far. Updated 8/15: Kelley’s ADP has jumped from RB60 to RB56 and from 180 overall to 164 since our last update. Fantasy owners are warming up to him and he’s now going just a few picks after teammate Justin Jackson. Updated 9/4: Kelley’s ADP jumped by almost two full rounds since the last update. He reportedly has an edge over Jackson for the Chargers’ #2 RB spot.
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (ADP: 18, WR5)
D-Hop has averaged 100 catches over the last two seasons but the change in scenery from Houston to Arizona will likely have a negative effect on his targets and catch total. That fact seems to be baked into his second-round ADP. He’s a stud though and he’s likely looking at TD regression (just 7 last year), and he’s fine as your first receiver after taking a back in the first.
Allen Robinson, CHI (ADP: 29, WR9)
We’re sold on Robinson as a great pick in the third round. He’s a baller who should get better QB play this year and he’s got little competition for targets. We have him ranked as our WR7. His ADP could move him up into the second round and I’d still sign off on him. Updated 9/4: There’s now a three WR difference between our ranking of Robinson as WR6 and his ADP of WR9 making him a terrific value in the third round.
Odell Beckham, CLE (ADP: 31, WR10)
OBJ is priced at a discount this year after disappointing last season with just 74 catches and 4 TDs. He’s a good candidate for a bounce-back season but he hasn’t reached 1200 yards or scored 10 TDs since 2016, which seems like an eternity ago. He’s just the 11th WR on our board compared to his WR9 ADP which technically makes him a little overvalued, but the potential for a monster season is there which still makes him appealing. Updated 8/2: Mike Evans has snuck ahead of Beckham in this update which is more in line with our rankings. Updated 8/15: Beckham is now back in front of Evans.
Adam Thielen, MIN (ADP: 36, WR12)
Added 8/15. We have a big discrepancy between our ranking of Thielen as WR8 on the site and where he is being drafted. He’s the Vikings only proven option at WR and he’ll command targets even in a low volume passing game. He looks to be one of the biggest draft day values anywhere on the board and someone I’d be thrilled to get as my WR2 early in the 4th round. Updated 9/4: Thielen’s ADP has inched up over the last couple of weeks as the Vikings have uncertainty at their #2 receiver spot but he’s still undervalued on the round three / round four turn in a PPR league.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (ADP: 37, WR13)
If you owned JuJu last year, you know he was one of the bigger disappointments in fantasy. Things are looking up in 2020 as he gets his QB back but it remains to be seen if that will be enough to push him back into high-end WR2 territory. He’s a bit of a risky pick at his current ADP. Teammate Dionte Johnson, who can be had three or four rounds later, looks like a better value. Updated 8/15: JuJu has gone from WR13 to WR11 since our last update as all the reports on Big Ben’s health have been positive. However, he’s our WR14 so he’s looking a little overvalued. Updated 9/4: Our ranking and JuJu’s ADP are now the same.
Calvin Ridley, ATL (ADP: 38, WR15)
Ridley may be Atlanta’s WR2 but we think he has a good shot to produce like a WR1 for fantasy. We have him ranked 4 spots higher than his positional ADP and I’m grabbing him in the fourth round in any draft I can.
Amari Cooper, DAL (ADP: 39, WR16)
Cooper is still being drafted as a WR1 but we have him ranked as a mid-range WR2 which is quite a discrepancy. Fantasy owners are clearly buying into the Cowboys offense -- as am I -- but there’s only one football and lots of mouths to feed in Big D. He’ll have some huge games but will disappear at times and can be taken out, which is not a quality I want in a WR1. Updated 8/15: He’s fallen a couple of spots to put him on the Round 3/Round 4 turn but it’s still too rich for me. He’s our WR19 on the site so we feel he’s overvalued in drafts so far. Updated 9/4: Cooper dropped again since the last update. He’s had a quiet camp and it turns out he’s been a limited participant or non-participant for “preventative measures” lately.
A.J. Brown, TEN (ADP: 42, WR17)
The second-year WR looks to be a little undervalued right now as a fourth-round pick. Fantasy owners could be shying away thinking his YPR will be tough to duplicate, and it will be, but he should see an uptick in targets and catches this season; plus, the Titans didn’t add any competition of note at WR.
Robert Woods, LAR (ADP: 44, WR18)
I feel like Woods is undervalued every year and that appears to be the case again in 2020. He was WR13 last year despite catching only 2 TDs. He’ll score more in 2020 and his WR18 ADP makes him an extreme bargain right now.
D.K. Metcalf, SEA (ADP: 45, WR19)
The big-bodied Metcalf finished as last year’s WR33 in PPR and he’s being drafted as WR19, this year which shows that fantasy owners are expecting a sizable jump in production. He seemed to surpass Tyler Lockett as Seattle’s top option in the passing game late last season and if that carries over to 2020 he’ll be worth a pick at his late fourth-round ADP.
D.J. Chark, JAC (ADP: 48, WR20)
Chark’s numbers tailed off towards the end of last season which could be why he’s only a fifth-round pick as the 22nd WR off the board. Some owners may also be worried about the Jags’ selection of WR Laviska Shenault in the second round of the NFL draft, but he isn’t a threat to Chark’s 2020 production. Greg Cosell likes Chark’s tape and that’s good enough for me to feel good about him. He’s one of the better WR values on the board. Updated 8/15: Chark has moved from WR22 to WR20 in this update but as our WR16 he’s still a great value pick in the 5th round.
Terry McLaurin, WAS (ADP: 50, WR22)
Washington’s already thin WR group took a blow when Kelvin Harmon tore his ACL in July. McLaurin should be absolutely peppered with targets as the only proven pass-catching option in D.C. He’s our WR21 and a value as a fifth-rounder but we’ll see if his ADP moves after the Harmon news. Updated 8/2: As suspected, McLaurin’s ADP has moved up by a few spots and he’s now being taken as WR20 up from WR22 a couple of weeks ago. We now have him ranked as WR20 as well. Updated 8/15: He dropped from WR20 to WR21 since our last update. He’s one of our favorite fifth round targets. Updated 9/4: We have a decent gap between McLaurin’s ADP of WR 22 and our ranking of him as WR18. He’s still one of my favorite fifth round picks.
Keenan Allen, LAC (ADP: 54, WR24)
Allen has averaged more than 100 catches over the last three seasons but now he’ll be playing with a journeyman (Taylor) or a rookie (Herbert) in 2020 instead of a future Hall of Famer (Rivers). He finished as fantasy’s #8 WR last year but he’s being drafted on the WR2/WR3 border this year, so clearly fantasy owners are expecting a significant decrease in production, as are we. Updated 9/4: It’s interesting that Allen’s ADP hasn’t moved even with Mike Williams hurting.
Marquise Brown, BAL (ADP: 60, WR25)
We’re all in on Brown as an upside pick in the sixth round. He was nowhere near 100% healthy last season and the Ravens gave him a big vote of confidence by not bringing in any significant challengers for targets. He’s healthy now and fantasy owners seem to know he’s ready to break out this season. Updated 8/15: His ADP has crept up a little since mid-July but he still looks undervalued compared to our WR22 ranking.Updated 9/4: His ADP moved up a few more spots in this update as he’s now a fifth round pick in many drafts.
DeVante Parker, MIA (ADP: 62, WR26)
We have a large discrepancy here with Parker ranked only as our WR 32 but being drafted as WR26. Parker was a fantasy stud after rookie Preston Williams went down to injury in 2019 and Greg Cosell does like his tape, but we have our concerns. Williams is back and the Dolphins will be rolling with a rookie QB at some point this season. Updated 8/15: The gap between Parker’s ADP and our ranking has widened even more as his ADP moves from WR26 to WR25 in this update.
T.Y. Hilton, IND (ADP: 63, WR27)
Hilton’s WR35 finish in PPR FPG last year was disastrous for fantasy owners who also were without him for six games due to injury. His QB play will be better this year with Philip Rivers added but the Colts’ run-heavy approach, the addition of rookie WR Michael Pittman and Hilton’s injury concerns have kept the former WR1 in high-end WR3 range so far this draft season. Updated 8/2: Hilton has been placed on the active/NFI list with a “mild” hamstring injury. Expect his ADP to drop until he is back on the field. Updated 8/15: Hilton has been activated from the active/PUP list already but the data hasn’t caught up to that news yet. He dropped from WR25 to WR27 since the last update. Updated 9/4: Hilton has been back with the team for a couple of weeks now but his ADP hasn’t moved.
Stefon Diggs, BUF (ADP: 65, WR28)
Diggs goes from one low-volume passing game to another as he joins a crowded Bills offense. There is no shortage of playmakers here and his 17.9 YPR average last season was very unusual for Diggs (career 12.7 YPR). He can get deep but he’s playing with an inaccurate deep-ball thrower in Josh Allen. He looks to be overvalued right now based on name value.
Michael Gallup, DAL (ADP: 66, WR30)
Gallup will likely have a difficult time duplicating his WR18 finish from 2019 thanks largely to the addition of CeeDee Lamb and fantasy owners seem to recognize that based on his ADP. We like the player but he still looks overvalued as we have him ranked as our WR36 while his ADP is WR31. I’m passing on him at the 6/7 turn. Updated 9/4: Not much has changed for Gallup as he’s moved up one spot both in ADP and our rankings.
Will Fuller, HOU (ADP: 68, WR31)
DeAndre Hopkins leaves behind 150 targets in Houston and while Fuller certainly won’t see all or even most of those, we know he can do a lot with a little. It all comes down to health with Fuller. Fantasy owners seem cautiously optimistic and are drafting him a few spots ahead of teammate Brandin Cooks. We have him ranked as our WR33, and are in on him at his current ADP. Updated 8/2: Fuller has moved in front of Dionte Johnson and Julian Edelman in the latest batch of data. Updated 8/15: He’s now jumped Jarvis Landry too as he remains in good health. Updated 9/4: Fuller has moved up by a half round since the last update as it appears he’ll make it to Week One healthy,
A.J. Green, CIN (ADP: 75, WR33)
Added 8/15. Green looks to be undervalued right now when you compare his ADP to our ranking of him as WR25. Green missed all of 2019 and 13 of his previous 48 games so clearly fantasy owners are baking his injury history into his ADP. He’s also 32 and playing with a rookie quarterback so I understand why drafters aren’t all over Green. However, early reports on Green from Bengals camp are good and the price is right for me to feel good about him in the 6th round as a WR3. Updated 9/4: Green hasn’t been practicing in full for some time now and his ADP has dropped by half a round.If he can get his hamstring right he could be a nice value as a seventh round pick.
Julian Edelman, NE (ADP: 80, WR34)
Edelman has remarkably averaged better than 6 catches per game in six straight seasons but the QB change from Brady to Newton is likely going to end that streak. We’ve never seen a slot receiver put up big numbers with Cam, and Edelman is entering his age-34 season in what figures to be a run-heavy offense. His ADP looks about right but with little upside, I won’t be drafting him there.
Deebo Samuel, SF (ADP: 81, WR35)
We’ve got a large discrepancy here between Deebo’s ADP of WR36 and our ranking as WR52. There is still a grey area regarding his injury timetable so he’s being drafted all over the place right now. That may settle down as we get a little more clarity closer to the season. There can be value to be had in drafting players that will miss time to start the season but for now, draft Deebo at your own risk. Updated 8/2: Deebo has moved down about a half a round as HC Kyle Shanahan has confirmed that he will indeed miss some regular season games. Updated 8/15: Deebo drops another half a round in this latest update but he’s still being overdrafted compared to our rankings. Updated 9/4: Deebo’s ADP has jumped up 18 spots into the seventh round with the news that he may actually be ready to go for Week One.
Diontae Johnson, PIT (ADP: 82, WR36)
Johnson led all rookie WRs with 59 grabs a year ago despite poor QB play in Pittsburgh. Big Ben returning means good things for Johnson and the entire offense. Fantasy owners seem to be hip to Johnson, but we’re even more bullish on him than most. He’s our WR29 so he’s undervalued right now as a seventh-rounder. Updated 9/4: Johnson has dropped six spots since mid-August which isn’t all that significant but it’s worth noting that he’s missed time with a leg injury.
Brandin Cooks, HOU (ADP: 83 WR37)
Cooks comes over from L.A. and is expected to line up primarily in DeAndre Hopkins’ old spot. We certainly shouldn’t expect Hopkins-like production from Cooks, but this is a nice landing spot for him. Cooks carries with him a significant injury risk, and he’s on his fourth team in five years which is never a great sign. If you’re investing in the Texans passing game, we like Fuller more than Cooks at their current ADPs. Updated 9/4: Note that Cooks is ranked as our WR46 compared to his ADP of WR37 which is one of the larger discrepancies of any player at the position.
CeeDee Lamb, DAL (ADP: 90, WR39)
The Cowboys offense will likely remain one of the better units in the league, if not the best unit in the league in 2020 and the addition of Lamb represents an upgrade over the pedestrian Randall Cobb. However, there is only one ball to go around and all three Cowboys WRs look to be overvalued right now based on their ADPs. The best way to get a piece of this passing game may be to draft Dak. Updated 9/4: You used to be able to get Lamb 100+ picks into a draft but those days are over as the reports on him out of Cowboys camp have been overwhelmingly positive.
Jamison Crowder, NYJ (ADP: 92, WR40)
Crowder is the one constant in what looks to be an overhauled group of Jets pass catchers this season. QB Sam Darnold is very comfortable throwing to Crowder in the slot and we may see plenty of that while he gets acclimated to the new pieces. Crowder is not a sexy pick but he looks like PPR gold 100+ picks into a draft. Updated 9/4: Crowder has moved up almost a full round since mid-August as Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims have been out of practice.
Darius Slayton, NYG (ADP: 97, WR42)
Added 8/15. Slayton finished 2019 as WR41 in PPR FPG and he’s being drafted right around that spot again this year. The Giants passing game does have other mouths to feed in Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram and of course Saquon Barkley but all those players do most of their damage on the inside, playing from the slot or on short passes around the line of scrimmage. Slayton is the only vertical threat of the bunch, will start on the outside and showed well as a rookie. He’s our WR36 so he looks to be a little undervalued in drafts so far.
Jerry Jeudy, DEN (ADP: 106, WR43)
Jeudy didn’t get enough love in the NFL draft and he’s probably not getting enough love in fantasy drafts either. There are lots of mouths to feed in Denver so we’re not expecting the world but he’s our WR38 being drafted as WR42, so there’s some value to be had by grabbing the polished Jeudy in the ninth round. Updated 8/2: Jeudy has dropped a couple of WR spots as owners seem to be a little hesitant on rookies in this weird ramp up to the regular season. Broncos GM John Elway has said he’s "tempered his expectations" for rookies this year. We have moved him down to WR40 in our rankings. Updated 8/15: He’s now WR41 in our rankings.
Mecole Hardman, KC (ADP: 109, WR46)
Hardman’s 6 TDs on just 41 targets a year ago have fantasy owners pushing him up draft boards. We’re excited about his game-breaking speed but with every significant piece of the Chiefs offense returning, it’s hard to envision him being a consistent fantasy producer in 2020. He’s our WR60 so he’s significantly overvalued at his current ADP. He’s definitely more appealing in best-ball leagues as he carries boom or bust potential every week.
Henry Ruggs III, LV (ADP: 109, WR47)
Added 8/15. Ruggs’ ADP is directly in line with our ranking of him as WR46. The Raiders are talking him up and they’ll manufacture targets for him. Fantasy owners are likely pleased to hear the reports of Ruggs working from the slot and being moved around the formation. Ruggs carries some potential upside for sure and 100+ picks into a draft, I’ll take a shot on Ruggs as a depth WR who could potentially give me some big games.
DeSean Jackson, PHI (ADP: 124, WR51)
Jackson’s social media woes have him in hot water, he has missed 27 games over the last five seasons and he’s entering his age-34 season. Many fantasy owners are understandably scared off but Jackson can still play at a high level and he looks like a value as our WR47. Updated 9/4: Jackson’s ADP has moved up 17 spots over the last couple of weeks as he’s the healthiest of the Eagles WRs at this point.
Jalen Reagor, PHI (ADP: 128, WR53)
We’re excited about Reagor’s possibilities in what we expect to be an explosive Eagles offense in 2020. It’s looking like Alshon Jeffery may miss the start of the season and DeSean Jackson seems to be on shaky ground, and is always an injury risk. The latest news may have Reagor moving up draft boards but right now our WR39 is undervalued as WR49 in drafts. Updated 8/2: Reagor has moved up almost a full round as Alshon Jeffery still isn’t ready to play and Marquise Goodwin has opted out of the 2020 season. Updated 9/4: Reagor’s ADP has dropped by about a round as it looks like he’ll miss at least one game, maybe more, to start the regular season.
Golden Tate, NYG (ADP: 140, WR56)
Tate scored at least 11.8 PPR FP in 9 of his 11 starts last season. Perennially undervalued, we have him ranked as WR51 but he’s being taken as only WR55 around 140 picks into drafts. He’s surrounded by sexier names on the Giants offense which is probably keeping his ADP down.
Breshad Perriman, NYJ (ADP: 140, WR57)
Perriman still isn’t getting much love in fantasy drafts despite the fact that he’s been very productive when given opportunities the last two seasons. He should be the Jets leading outside receiver and we have him ranked significantly higher (WR40) than his ADP. Fantasy owners are likely still skeptical after the slow start to his career…and of course, the Adam Gase factor. Updated 8/15: Perriman’s ADP drops from WR53 to WR58 in this update making him an even better draft day value. Rookie Denzel Mims injured his hamstring on 8/14 so we could see Perriman’s ADP on the rise soon. Updated 9/4: Perriman is dealing with a bad hamstring and has been out of practice for more than a week but his ADP hasn’t moved much.
Brandon Aiyuk, SF (ADP: 151, WR60)
This may be a case of the data needing to catch up with the news but as of now Aiyuk still isn’t being drafted highly enough. He’s a rookie in a low-volume passing game so fantasy owners may not be feeling him but he should have a large role to start the season and a big opportunity to establish himself with Deebo missing time. Updated 8/2: Aiyuk’s ADP hasn’t moved over the last couple of weeks and he’s a value on our board as our WR50. Updated 8/15: Aiyuk moved up 8 spots in this update but he’s our WR50 being selected as WR59 so he looks like a value.
Michael Pittman, IND (ADP: 151, WR61)
Pittman stands out as one of the bigger draft day values on our board as we have him as WR46 compared to his WR59 ADP. He’ll have a large role from day one with only the oft-injury T.Y. Hilton in front of him in Indy’s target pecking order. Updated 8/2: Pittman moved from WR59 to WR58 in this update which isn’t significant but we’ll see if the Hilton injury news pushes Pittman up draft boards.Updated 8/15: Hilton has been activated from the active/PUP list and Pittman’s ADP dropped a couple of spots in this update. We see a huge buying opportunity here as he’s our WR42 on the site. Updated 9/4: We have dropped Pittman down to 52 in our WR rankings as it appears Hilton and Doyle (and potentially the backs) could all be ahead of him in the target pecking order, but he is still a value at his current price tag.
Parris Campbell, IND (ADP: 165, WR64)
Similar to Harry, Campbell didn’t get a chance to show much as a rookie but he’ll be in a nice situation in 2020 to take a big jump up playing with Phillip Rivers. Fantasy owners are likely not as bullish as we are based on his lack of numbers last year and the Colts desire to run the football but he is a breakout/sleeper candidate for sure. Updated 9/4: Campbell’s ADP has risen by 18 spots since mid-August. He’s reportedly a “full go” to start the season after being in the league’s concussion protocol.
N’Keal Harry, NE (ADP: 167, WR65)
Harry is coming off a quiet injury-laden rookie season but he’s in a nice spot to earn plenty of playing time this year. The addition of Cam Newton helps his case to be a potential breakout player in 2020. We’ve got him ranked as WR54 compared to his ADP of WR60 so he’s a value on our board. Updated 8/15: Harry’s ADP has actually fallen from WR60 to WR63 since mid-July so the signing of Cam Newton hasn’t improved his fantasy value in the minds of drafters. Updated 9/4: Harry has been unimpressive in camp so far and his ADP dropped a few more spots in this update.
Hunter Renfrow, LV (ADP: 169, WR66)
Similar to Jamison Crowder in New York, Renfrow is a slot guy who should be a comfortable option for his QB while new receivers (Ruggs, Edwards, Witten) attempt to integrate themselves into the offense. He’s a nice pick for cheap catches 150+ picks into a draft. Updated 8/15: Renfrow is one of the biggest fallers in this update as his ADP plummeted 23 spots and he’s now just WR65. News of rookie Henry Ruggs III working from the slot in practice and fellow rookie Bryan Edwards potentially being on the field in 3-WR sets puts a damper on Renfrow’s fantasy outlook. Updated 9/4: Tyrell Williams’ injury is good news for Renfrow who will likely see the field more and his ADP has risen by half a round since the last update.
Steven Sims, WAS (ADP: 196, WR72)
Added 9/4: Sims has been one of our favorite late-round targets as he seems to be in line for the most targets on the Washington Football Team among all players not named Terry McLaurin. He’s ranked as our WR61 and I’m totally fine taking him a couple rounds earlier than his ADP.
Dede Westbrook, JAC (ADP: 215, WR74)
Fantasy owners seem to have soured on Dede after last year’s disappointing fantasy output but he remains the #2 option in the Jaguars passing game and we still like the player. Rookie Laviska Shenault could be a factor but not enough to keep Westbrook from being a draft-day value at his current WR75 ADP. He’s ranked as our WR68. Updated 8/2: The gap between Dede’s ADP and our ranking has closed so he’s not looking particularly appealing at this point.
Cole Beasley, BUF (ADP: 236, WR76)
Beasley is getting no love in fantasy drafts so far but he was a fantasy WR3/WR4 last season and his role has not changed. For all the talk about Josh Allen’s big arm, he did a better job getting the ball the Beasley on short passes than he did pushing it down the field for big gains. Beasley is our WR69 so we think he’s worth a pick a couple of rounds earlier than his ADP.
Russell Gage, ATL (ADP: 237, WR77)
We’re more bullish on Gage than the drafting community at large as evidenced by our ranking of him as WR66. He’ll be involved on a weekly basis as the Falcons #3 WR and an injury in front of him to either Julio or Ridley makes him a weekly fantasy starter in a 12-teamer.
Mark Andrews, BAL (ADP: 48, TE3)
Andrews busted out big time last year and we’re expecting similar digits in 2020. The Ravens pass attempts will likely be up a bit in 2020 and they didn’t add anyone of significance to compete for targets. He’s the best value among the top three TEs on the Round 4/Round5 turn..
Darren Waller, LV (ADP: 67, TE5)
Waller was a steal last season who we told people to draft on SiriusXM Fantasy Football but this year you’ll have to pay up for him if you want him. He’ll score more than the 3 TDs (on 117 targets!) he did a year ago but his targets and catch totals will likely decline due to the added competition in Vegas.
Evan Engram, NYG (ADP: 82, TE6)
He’s produced at an elite TE1 level when on the field without Odell Beckham and there’s a case to be made for him as the Giants #1 option in the passing game. It all boils down to availability and injury risk and that’s baked into his ADP. There are so many upside TE2s to be had later in drafts that I’m fine taking on Engram’s injury risk and drafting him as my starter. Updated 9/4: Engram is healthy to start the season and he’s jumped ahead of Tyler Higbee in this latest round of ADP data.
Tyler Higbee, LAR (ADP: 87, TE7)
Higbee was an elite producer down the stretch last year averaging better than 100 yards per game over the final five weeks and that has us excited. We’re hoping for more clarity on his 2020 usage with Gerald Everett back in the mix but right now fantasy owners are drafting him as a mid-range TE1.
Hayden Hurst, BAL (ADP: 89, TE8)
We’re in on Hurst and we have him ranked above both Higbee and Engram who are both typically being drafted before him. He’s been moving up draft boards all summer as people are realizing the huge void left by Austin Hooper’s signing with the Browns but he’s actually still undervalued at his current ADP.
Rob Gronkowski, TB (ADP: 114, TE10)
Gronk could be undervalued at his current 10th round ADP as he carries tremendous TD potential. He likely won’t see as many snaps or targets as he used to in NE, and there are plenty of other receiving options in Tampa which is likely keeping his ADP from being prohibitive. Updated 8/2: Gronk moved in front of both Jared Cook and Mike Gesicki over the last couple of weeks but not by much.
Jared Cook, NO (ADP: 123, TE12)
It seems like nobody is talking about Cook this year despite the fact that he was 2nd in TDs and 8th in yards among all TEs a year ago. The Saints drafted Adam Trautman which could be keeping Cook’s ADP in check but rookie TEs rarely make an impact and I’ll gladly take Cook 120 picks into my draft if I miss out on one of the bigger names at the position.
T.J. Hockenson, DET (ADP: 140, TE15)
Hockenson is not getting as much love from drafters as we feel he should be. He didn’t do much as a rookie but we still believe in the talent. He’s got a year under his belt now and Stafford back at QB, which should help him take a big step forward this season.
Noah Fant, DEN (ADP: 135, TE14)
The Broncos have reloaded on offense so Fant will have more competition for targets but he showed last year he can do a lot with a little. His ADP and our ranking seem to be in line but we’ll monitor for movement in the coming days/weeks. Updated 8/15: Fant moves from TE16 to TE13 in this update possibly as a result of GM John Elway saying the rookies (Juedy, Hamler) could be slow off the mark. Updated 9/4: Fant has settled in as a high-end TE2 option in the 12th round which looks about right to me.
Jonnu Smith, TEN (ADP: 143, TE17)
Smith enters 2020 as the unquestioned TE1 in Tennessee. He won’t likely be heavily targeted but it’s reasonable to expect career-highs in every meaningful category this year and we do have him ranked ahead of guys like Hooper and Fant who are typically being drafted before him. Updated 8/15: Fant has leapfrogged Smith in our rankings.
Chris Herndon, NYJ (ADP: 147, TE18)
Herndon gained more than 500 yards as a rookie in 2018 but missed almost all of last season due to injury. After last year’s lost season, fantasy owners don’t seem to be fully embracing Herndon. He should be a meaningful part of the Jets offense and looks to be undervalued at his current ADP. Updated 8/15: Herndon has settled in as an undervalued TE2. He’s our TE15 but his ADP has been steady at TE20. Updated 9/4: Herndon’s ADP has jumped up by about two rounds since mid-August as the Jets have been talking him up and their WR group is a walking wounded right now.
Jace Sternberger, GB (ADP: 241, TE26)
Here’s a John Hansen favorite, who looks like a potential steal on draft day. The Packers don’t have a clear cut #2 option in the passing game after Davante Adams and we like Sternberger’s chances to emerge as a weekly contributor for the Pack. Here’s our TE19 but is only being drafted as TE24. Updated 9/4: Sternberger’s ADP has fallen off a cliff (almost 50 spots!) since our last update as he’s reportedly not ready for prime time and Robert Tonyan could actually be playing ahead of him.
Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: 152, DST2)
We’ve got Pittsburgh ranked as our #1 fantasy defense. We’re passing on the Niners and targeting the Steelers who ranked as a top-2 unit in sacks, interceptions and fumbles in 2019 and should be playing with more leads this season. Updated 8/15: Our #1 ranked defense has dropped from DST2 to DST3 since mid-July making them even more of a draft day value. Updated 9/4: Their ADP is back to DST2 and they’re still our #1 DST.
Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 164, DST3)
The Ravens are one of our defenses to target this year if the price tag isn’t too high. They’re currently going off the board as DST3 compared to our ranking of DST4. There are comparable units that look like better values available a few rounds later. Updated 8/15: The Ravens, Steelers and 49ers are all being drafted within 5 picks of each other. Updated 9/4: The Ravens, Steelers and 49ers are now being drafted within 12 picks of each other.
Chicago Bears (ADP: 201, DST6)
We like this unit and they’re a viable DST1 selection for sure but we feel a little bit better about some other defenses that are being drafted a few picks later (NO, TB). Updated 8/2: The Bears, Saints and Bucs are all being drafted within a few picks of each other. Updated 8/15: The Bears ADP has dropped by a round or so since early-August. Starting DT Eddie Goldman opting out of the 2020 season could have something to do with that.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 209, DST9)
The Bucs defense looks like an undervalued group right now. We’ve got them as DST5 but they’re only being drafted as DST8. This is another unit that should benefit from playing with more leads in 2020 than they did a year ago. Updated 8/15: Their ADP has dropped from DST8 to DST10 which makes them even more appealing. Updated 9/4: The Bucs look like a value for us as we have them ranked as DST4 and their being drafted as DST9.