General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Jalen Hurts seems invincible right now. The Panthers stifled the Eagles’ offense for much of the game this past Sunday and Hurts still managed to come away with 22 fantasy points. He hit this mark despite throwing for a touchdown or 200 yards. The value he adds rushing the football is immense, not only for his floor games like last week, but also to boost his ceiling games like we hopefully get in this game against the Buccaneers. I’ve had success “skinny stacking” Hurts on main slates, meaning choosing just one pass-catcher instead of multiple to pair with him. A unique strategy this week will be to stack Hurts with just one pass-catcher, then load up on Buccaneers in the flex. These two teams complement each other well in the fact that the Bucs can get production from a bunch of spots whereas the Eagles is fairly concentrated.
Devonta Smith has increased his usage steadily as the season has gone on and that should be felt even more this week with Dallas Goedert not likely to suit up. After averaging around a 4/40 stat line through three weeks, he has turned in back to back seven reception performances for an average of 100 yards.
Quez Watkins is my favorite cheap captain that allows you to get access to more studs in the flex. The absence of Goedert will have players flocking to Zach Ertz, for good reason, but I’m expecting more 11 personnel (3WR) that gets Watkins on the field a bit more than normal. He is excellent at getting open and the more he’s on the field the more targets he can earn. Last week against the Panthers, Hurts didn’t see Watkins wide open on a flood concept. On the next series they went back to the same play and Hurts him for a near touchdown. They want to get Watkins involved and he makes sense in the captain spot on DraftKings.
Tom Brady is one of the few “statue quarterbacks” I trust at the captain spot, for the simple reason of what we saw in his last game. He shredded the Dolphins for 400/5 while distributing the ball to different receivers. Antonio Brown would have been the optimal captain last week, but the point remains that a monster game without one pass-catcher dominating is in his range of outcomes.
Mike Evans, like Tyler Lockett and Tyreek Hill, are captain or fade players for me. At their salaries, they are usually under-rostered in the captain, but over-rostered in the flex. Because he often flip flops between explosion games and pedestrian outcomes, taking a hard stance on him with regards to the captain will be my strategy.
Antonio Brown isn’t priced up enough for him to be a captain fade. I honestly think he’s the WR1 in Tampa, or at least the wide receiver that will be the most efficient with his targets each week. In the three games he has started and finished this year he is averaging 6/100/1. The blip on the radar in Weeks 2 and 3 caused people to forget about AB, but he’s primed for a monster rest of season.
Flex
The Buccaneers running back situation isn’t as clear cut as many think. Leonard Fournette was popular last week and he turned in a 21 fantasy point performance that should get the recency bias ratcheted up a notch. Despite the fact the Eagles are a run funnel defense, I’m going to shy away from playing a ton of Lenny. With Ronald Jones and Giovani Bernard sharing half the workload, it makes for some real dud potential, couple that with the fact I think he’ll be rostered more than he should be and he will be an underweight play for me. I’d much rather use Bernard and Jones at a massive discount and hope for some touchdown variance to swing their way.
Miles Sanders is just brutal right now. He is inefficient with his touches, and there haven’t been many of them. Sometimes, I don’t understand coaching in the NFL. Kenny Gainwell flashed major upside in the Eagles’ previous game, yet they barely gave him the ball the following week. It’s like they thought they might hurt Sanders feeling or something. Either way, I just can’t get behind Sanders again this week, especially with the way the Bucs defend the run. The only way he lands in the optimal if he catches five check downs and happens to fall into the end zone. Give me the more versatile Kenny G for a discount.
Zach Ertz still has a bit left in the tank, but we can’t assume that Goedert’s absence immediately catapults him to a 25% target share. He will definitely be a flex play, in fact maybe the best flex play of the night, but I have a hard time finding a ceiling performance worthy of captain consideration, especially on FanDuel. Maybe if he scores twice, he can get there on DraftKings, I’ll still opt for flex-only. Jalen Reagor is in the same boat, a very viable flex play if he hits one of his top outcomes, but more than likely he won’t score enough to be a captain play on DraftKings. Greg Ward is very cheap and with no Goedert, could rotate in at slot wide receiver a bit more than he has to start the year. He works for lineups you have very little salary remaining.
Chris Godwin was left off the captain spot write up, because you can’t play everyone in the captain. I feel it’s important to take a stand on who you think lands in the 1.5x spot. Since I ranked them AB>Evans>Godwin, Godwin will be a flex only play. If he was nearer in price to Brown, it would be a different story, but he is almost $2,000 more as a captain. Brady has been as quick to pull the trigger in targeting Cam Brate and OJ Howard like he did Gronk in the red zone. While they can certainly land in the optimal lineup, they aren’t a priority when setting my parameters
Lineup Starters
Captain: Jalen Hurts
Flex: Devonta Smith, Antonio Brown, Tom Brady
Captain: Devonta Smith
Flex: Jalen Hurts, Chris Godwin, Greg Ward
Captain: Quez Watkins
Flex: Jalen Hurts, Tom Brady, Mike Evans
Captain: Tom Brady
Flex: Antonio Brown, Devonta Smith, Giovani Bernard
Captain: Mike Evans
Flex: Jalen Hurts, Jalen Reagor, Kenny Gainwell
Captain: Antonio Brown
Flex: Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, Zach Ertz
