General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool enter Sunday night with what should be a more concentrated target share akin to Justin Jefferson/Adam Thielen or Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf. This comes on the heels of Juju Smith-Schuster’s injury that will sideline him for the season. Johnson and Claypool already had a stranglehold on the offensive passing production, but this could give them even more of a bump. They currently have been fed a combined 50% of targets and 75% of air yards. Juju leaves behind an additional 17% of targets and 14% of air yards. Johnson and Claypool are top picks to land in the captain spot in Week 6.
Najee Harris could take advantage of good game script. The Steelers are 4-point favorites and will be facing Geno Smith at quarterback. There is a possibility this game gets away from the Seahawks and we see an emphasis on the run game like we did last week in which Harris racked up 20+ carries and the 100-yard bonus. The fact he’s involved in the passing game makes it all the more likely he could land in the captain spot. He’s currently third on the team in targets with 21% share, good for nearly 8 targets per game.
The Seahawks side of the ball is going to be a bit trickier to dissect than normal. I actually think Geno Smith has a bit more captain appeal than the masses will suspect. He looked competent last week in relief of Russ against the Rams and he has the pedigree. He could be more willing to take off than Russ as well. Russ had mobility, but always prioritized keeping his eyes downfield and slinging it. Geno went for 3/23 rushing last week and with a full game to get outside the pocket has potential for ceiling game.
Alex Collins will again be the lead back without Chris Carson. His captain salary is somewhat affordable in comparison to the rest of the skill players and he will push them for the same amount of touches. He handled 15 carries and saw three targets. The Steelers run defense has been stout, so I don’t love loading up on him here, but he’s viable.
The key question is how much does Geno Smith hurt the viability of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Honestly, if you told me the Seahawks would run the same tempoed offense they have the first month of the season, I’d say not much. But there’s always the chance that they slow it down and try to make this game a slugfest with a backup quarterback at the helm. I’m going to lean to the Steeler options in this game because I don’t think the Seahawks offense will be as efficient. However, Tyler Lockett is pretty inexpensive as a captain compared to the rest of the studs in this game. Lockett can reel in one or two bombs and get there without much else of an offensive effort from the Seahawks
Flex
Ben Roethlisberger didn’t make the captain spot because I think the Steelers’ offense will be a bit more concentrated than normal and when that’s the case, the skill players usually land in the 1.5x spot. He’s in play more on FanDuel for the captain spot because of the scoring and lack of salary adjustment.
The Steelers ancillary pass-catchers make for solid adds to the flex spot. James Washington, Pat Friermuth, Eric Ebron, Ray-Ray McCloud and Cody White. Washington will step into three wide receiver sets and has big play potential. He’s averaged 9 fantasy points over the last two weeks. Freiermuth has scored the lone tight end touchdown, but has been out-targeted by Eric Ebron. Ebron is due for some positive touchdown regression as he hasn’t scored yet this season, but his expected td rate indicates one is coming. McCloud and White are solid dart throws as they should be on the field a bit more without Juju. I wouldn’t expect anything more than 2-3 targets max.
Travis Homer will work in on passing downs. If you’re projecting a Steelers lead for most of this game, it could be smart to rotate Homer through some lineups for some catch-up mode. Deejay Dallas will probably factor in to a less extent, but I’d rather Homer.
The pass-catchers for the Seahawks outside of Metcalf and Lockett aren’t much to be excited about. Freddie Swain is the clear number three. He has two double digit fantasy games in his last four. There is potential narrative that Smith and Swain worked together a lot on the second team, so he could favor him. Either way, Swain provides necessary salary relief and has 10+ fantasy point upside. Gerald Everett is set to return from his illness and could be a forgotten element to this offense. He’s a bit expensive, but has the athletic profile to smash his salary given a handful of targets. Will Dissly is less enticing because Everett is back, but there is always the possibility Everett isn’t ready for a full workload and Dissly gets overlooked despite remaining the top tight end option.
Lineup Starters
Captain: Diontae Johnson
Flex: Ben Roethlisberger, James Washington, Travis Homer
Captain: Chase Claypool
Flex: Najee Harris, DK Metcalf Geno Smith
Captain: Najee Harris
Flex: Diontae Johnson, Tyler Lockett, Ray-Ray McCloud
Captain: Alex Collins
Flex: Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, DK Metcalf
Captain: Geno Smith
Flex: Tyler Lockett, Gerald Everett, Chase Claypool
Captain: Tyler Lockett
Flex: Geno Smith, Najee Harris, James Washington
Captain: DK Metcalf
Flex: Geno Smith, Diontae Johnson, Eric Ebron
