Hello and welcome to the Week 2 Sunday Morning Update. What is this article? Mostly it’s a follow-up to yesterday’s big DFS piece – Scott Barrett’s Week 2 DFS Breakdown. But this article should also offer some utility of its own for redraft and dynasty players.
Each week Graham Barfield and I will be breaking down the key injuries, news, and notes from Saturday / Sunday and will be updating this article up until kickoff (1PM EST). And we’ll also be providing a sort of TL;DR to yesterday’s big DFS article. Who are my core cash game plays? Who are Graham’s preferred low-owned plays for tournaments? You can find that at the end of this article.
Key News, Injury Updates, & Notes
Sunday Morning Update
- Jets WR Jamison Crowder is OUT. Keelan Cole is ACTIVE.
- Bills RB Zack Moss is ACTIVE.
- 49ers RB Trey Sermon is ACTIVE.
- Colts WR Parris Campbell is OUT. Michael Pittman is ACTIVE.
- Browns WR Anthony Schwartz is ACTIVE.
- Bills WR Gabe Davis is ACTIVE.
- Saints CB Marshon Lattimore is OUT.
- 49ers CB Emmanuel Moseley is OUT. SF is very thin at CB… they’re starting Josh Norman.
- Steelers LB Devin Bush and CB Joe Haden are OUT. Darren Waller explosion coming.
- Colts T Eric Fisher is ACTIVE.
- Broncos LB Bradley Chubb is ACTIVE.
- ESPN’s Mike Reiss reports that Patriots RB JJ Taylor will be active today. This is notable after Damien Harris’ late fumble and Rhamondre Stevenson’s fumble / pass pro errors last week. Stevenson is OUT.
- Rapsheet reports that Elijah Mitchell will “carry the load” for the 49ers today. Between Rapsheet’s spotty record for Sunday morning reports and likely Shanahanigans, we can safely ignore this. Mitchell is still a boom/bust play.
Saturday Update
- Per Adam Schefter: "Players expected to play Sunday include Eric Ebron, Peyton Barber, Trey Sermon, Zach Ertz, Eric Fisher, Quenton Nelson, A.J. Brown, Josh Reynolds, Gabriel Davis, Zack Moss, Tyrann Matthieu and Frank Clark."
- Colts CB Xavier Rhodes is OUT.
- Chargers CB Chris Harris Jr. and OT Bryan Bulaga are OUT.
- Cowboys DE DeMarcus Lawrence is OUT.
- Jaguars CB Tre Herndon is OUT.
- Raiders RB Josh Jacobs is OUT.
- Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny is OUT. WR Dee Eskridge is DOUBTFUL.
- Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr. is OUT. WR Anthony Schwartz is QUESTIONABLE.
- Titans CB Caleb Farley is OUT. TE Anthony Firkser is QUESTIONABLE.
- Steelers DT Carlton Davis is OUT. CB Joe Haden and LB Devin Bush are QUESTIONABLE.
- 49ers LB Dre Greenlaw is OUT. CB Emmanuel Moseley is DOUBTFUL. DT Javon Kinlaw, LB Marcell Harris, and DE Arik Armstead are QUESTIONABLE.
- Saints LB Kwon Alexander, DE Marcus Davenport, LB Pete Werner, LB Chase Hansen are all OUT. CB Marshon Lattimore, CB C.J. Williams, S C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and DE Tank Kpassagnon are all QUESTIONABLE. I think people are over-rating New Orleans’ defense in light of these injuries.
- Bengals CB Trae Waynes and S Ricardo Allen are OUT. CB Darius Phillips and LB Markus Bailey are QUESTIONABLE.
- Vikings LB Anthony Barr, DE Everson Griffin, CB Harrison Hand, and OT Christian Darrisaw are OUT. LB Eric Kendricks is QUESTIONABLE.
- Raiders OG Richie Incognito, LB Nick Kwiakoski, DE Yannick Ngakoue, and DE Carl Nassib are QUESTIONABLE.
- Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis is QUESTIONABLE.
- Texans TE Pharaoh Brown is QUESTIONABLE.
- Patriots OL Trent Brown is QUESTIONABLE.
- Bears WR Darnell Mooney LIKELY TO PLAY.
- Chargers RB Austin Ekeler practiced in full all week and is off the injury report.
Things I Think
I think not much has changed since I posted yesterday’s article. Though, after spending more time with our ownership projections, there are a few players I like considerably more now. Graham will be writing up his favorite contrarian plays later in this article, but, just in case he doesn’t 100% agree with me (my biggest pet peeve), I feel compelled to share my preferred contrarian plays in this space:
- RB Christian McCaffrey projects to be only 10% owned. Like with Tyreek Hill last week, that’s probably always a mistake. Despite not scoring a touchdown, McCaffrey was the No. 1 overall scorer at the position last week. He’s “flopped” maybe only once in his last 18 games. And New Orleans’ defense is being massively overrated, now absolutely decimated by injuries.
- RB Leonard Fournette is an absolutely phenomenal tournament-play, coming in at just 3%-owned on DraftKings. He’s seen a bell-cow workload in 5 of his last 5 games, and Tampa Bay is favored by 12.0-points behind the highest implied point total of the slate (32.0). Johnny doesn’t totally agree, but he’s probably my favorite tournament-play on the slate.
- Love me some Antonio Brown at just 8% (DK) / 5% (FD).
- Check on Quenton Nelson’s status Sunday morning, but Jonathan Taylor is a little low on FanDuel (7%).
- Mike Williams is arguably a top-6 overall play on FanDuel, so I don’t know why our projections have him at just 3%, while Allen sits at 22% (2nd-most overall).
- If Cedrick Wilson at 2% on DraftKings isn’t a mistake, it should be.
- Similarly, Marquez Callaway at 4% feels fairly exploitable. He was at 27% last week. What are the odds we weren’t wrong and this was just a flukey flop in a game Jameis Winston threw only 20 times for 148 yards? I don’t know, but it’s better than 4%… We can say the same thing with Elijah Moore (<1%), though I know I’ve already used up a lot of my goodwill on him.
- I like Diontae Johnson (4%) and Chase Claypool (2%) a lot on FanDuel, though both appear egregiously overlooked. I slightly prefer Claypool this week, who flashed slate-busting upside at least once last season (39.1 fantasy points in Week 5).
Graham Barfield’s Contrarian Angles
Overlooked Stacks / Games
Vikings / Cardinals (Murray-Hopkins + Thielen or Jefferson)
With everyone wanting to stack up Cowboys / Chargers (for good reason), Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are projected for 8% ownership as home-favorites against a Vikings side that is a shootout team. It’s the most expensive stack on the slate, but this game is hot. Over the Vikings last 17 games dating back to Week 1 of last season – their games have combined for an average of 56.2 points per game. Whew. In fact, the Vikings are 9-3 towards the over in their last 12 games with 10-of-12 scoring 50 or more points. And, for the second-straight week, no one wants to play Vikings WRs. Both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are headed for sub-3% ownership against the destitute Cardinals secondary. Jefferson > Thielen on FD.
Jalen Hurts / DeVonta Smith
Hurts scored 28.8 FP last week in a game where the Falcons could not keep it close. What will he put up this week in a much more competitive game against a 49ers defense that gave up the second-most rushing yards to QBs last year and is dealing with a slew of injuries? Stack him with Smith, who led the team in routes, targets, receptions, and yards in his rookie debut. Both Hurts and Smith are projected for 5% ownership on DK and FD. This is my favorite no-Cowboys / no-Chargers stack for Week 2.
Contrarian Plays With Slate-Breaking Upside
(Projected ownership in parenthesis).
RB
- James White (DK only, 2%) was targeted 43.8% of the time on his routes run last week, which was second-highest among RBs. Jets gave up 11 catches to CMC and Chuba Hubbard last week.
- Kareem Hunt (3-5%)… The Browns have the second-highest team total (30.8) on the slate and the only player the field wants to play on Cleveland is Chubb. Well, don’t forget about Hunt. He doesn’t have the face-melting upside that Chubb has, but we’re expecting the Browns to score at will here and Hunt has 7 TDs in his last eight games (including playoffs). Hunt is a better value on FD.
WR
- I agree with Scott (which is my biggest pet peeve, lol) that Mike Williams is the best way to gain leverage in Justin Herbert stacks – especially on DK where he’s slightly over-priced. He’s projected at 10% on DK, which will be 1.5-2x lower than Allen. Herbert / Allen / Williams + Cowboys is one way to be unique in that game. I also agree Marquez Callaway is an excellent GPP play after he was 25-30% owned across all contests last week. Callaway was on the field for all of the Saints passing plays, but only got 2 targets because Winston threw it 20 times.
- Robert Woods (8%) sets up as an excellent leverage play off of Cooper Kupp (20%) in tournaments.
- Donovan Peoples-Jones (2-3%) is a great tournament play on DK at minimum-price, and will become an excellent play if Anthony Schwartz (knee) misses. DPJ ran way more routes (26) than Schwartz last week (17), but just didn’t get the targets.
TE
- Jared Cook (4% on DK)… No one wants to play the only good tight end in the game of the week? Cook was a part-time player in Week 1, but got a ton of targets on his routes (25.8% – eighth-highest among TEs). Gronk went 8/90/2 vs. Dallas on Opening Day.
Chalk Plays (Ownership Projections)
DraftKings
1. Najee Harris, RB (25%) 2. Cooper Kupp, WR (19%) 3. Chris Carson, RB (17%) 4. Stefon Diggs, WR (14%) 5. Amari Cooper, WR (14%) 6. Nick Chubb, RB (14%) 7. Chase Edmonds, RB (14%) 8. Tyler Higbee, TE (14%) 9. DeAndre Hopkins, WR (14%) 10. Keenan Allen, WR (14%)
FanDuel
1. Najee Harris, RB (29%) 2. Keenan Allen, WR (22%) 3. Alvin Kamara, RB (21%) 4. CeeDee Lamb, WR (21%) 5. Christian McCaffrey, RB (21%) 6. Cooper Kupp, WR (20%) 7. Stefon Diggs, WR (19%) 8. Chris Carson, RB (18%) 9. Austin Ekeler, RB (18%) 10. Darren Waller, TE (17%)
Cash Core (DK/FD)
QB: Justin Herbert (DK/FD), Dak Prescott (DK), Josh Allen (FD)
RB: Najee Harris, Chris Carson, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott (DK), Austin Ekeler (FD), Nick Chubb
WR: CeeDee Lamb, Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper (DK), Mike Williams (FD), D.K. Metcalf (FD), Cedrick Wilson (DK), Emmanuel Sanders (DK)
TE: Darren Waller (FD), Tyler Higbee (DK)
DEF: MIN, TB (FD), CIN (FD), MIA (DK)
