General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
It’s going to be very difficult for me to not have Javonte Williams in my showdown lineups, in fact I think he’s a safe captain or flex lock, meaning he’s in every lineup somewhere. With Melvin Gordon on the shelf, the fantasy world finally gets to take a peak at what Williams in a lead role can do. He’s had great games with only 50% of the backfield touches. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mike Boone see snaps and touches, but this should be Javonte’s game. He’s an excellent play in all formats on all sites.
The Big Three on the other side of the ball would be my main focus for the game outside of Williams. Patrick Mahomes has the potential to throw five touchdowns to four different receivers on any given Sunday, in fact he just did it two weeks ago. That’s how a quarterback lands in the captain spot, that or rushing in a touchdown or two which he’s also capable of doing. If you’re slotting Mahomes in make sure to correlate him with a few pass-catchers.
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are obviously the two most heavily targeted Chiefs and will be great captain options. Hill is negatively correlated with all of the pass-catchers on the Chiefs, but positively correlated with the running backs and obviously Mahomes. This makes a bit of sense when you think about it. When Hill has his splash plays they create monster games from him while detracting from everyone else. It also puts points on the board quick for the Chiefs and gets the running backs involved on the ground more. Kelce correlates negatively with Hill, so I would limit the amount of lineups they are in together to very very few. Kelce, oddly, correlates most with Harrison Butker. In games when there aren’t a ton of touchdowns scored and the Chiefs are settling for field goals, the volume receiver can still accrue fantasy points with yards and receptions and that’s Kelce.
I wouldn’t fault anyone for opening up their player pool a bit more at captain, but I’m sticking with the three above in my MME run. Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos receivers haven’t been lighting things up this season. The offense just doesn’t get going enough for me to want to play him or most of the receivers in the captain spot. He’s a fine flex play, especially since he isn’t overpriced.
Jerry Jeudy will most likely lead the team in targets as he has for the most of the season with a 23% percent share. Jeudy has a low aDOT and hasn’t scored a touchdown yet in 2021, so he will be slotted into lineups that I’m projecting for Chiefs’ big wins. I can envision a scenario where the Broncos don’t score much at all but Jeudy is the player that lands in the optimal because he goes 6-80 or something of that nature.
Courtland Sutton hits lineups if the Broncos get on the board as he is the deep threat and touchdown scorer in this offense. I think he correlates well with Bridgewater in game scripts that have the Broncos keeping it close or this being a shootout. Sutton has a 38% air yard rate and an expected touchdown rate double his actual touchdown rate.
Noah Fant also has a super low aDOT of 6.1 yards. I like Fant as a player, but he may be over-rostered given his target share and depth of target. He makes for a solid rotational piece as does Tim Patrick who is more in the vein of Sutton with a higher aDOT. Jeudy and Fant compete for the same type of targets, while Sutton and Patrik compete for the deeper stuff in this offense. I think it’s fine to have one from each group, but would limit the number of rosters that have both Jeudy and Fant or both Sutton and Patrick.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrell Williams can be rotated through as a fourth or fifth Chief in lineups, but I’m more interested in concentrating on the passing game with two running backs getting involved in the offense. A few weeks ago when Darrel Williams was the only back active we locked him in because he was going to get all the touches, but it’s tough to predict the workload in this game for each player. If CEH is inactive (illness), then that changes but it seems like he’ll be good to go.
Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle are the rotational pieces that are always hard to nail down how exactly they’ll be used. Pringle has actually seen the most targets over the last three weeks, but if you extend it to four weeks, Hardman sees a bump to number one. It really is somewhat arbitrary who gets the targets from week-to-week, but I’d avoid Pringle and Tyreek in a lot of the same lineups because they seem to play the same receiver spot.
Mike Boone is a really nice leverage play off Williams, but he could also be added to lineups that already contain Williams. Oftentimes we create lineups as if we know whats going to happen with a rotation when we really don’t. So slotting on Boone is smart in some lineups in case he assumes a 30% role in this offense and is actually a screaming showdown value.
Albert Okuwuegbunam is basically a touchdown or bust type player with Fant active, but he’s a monster in the end zone and can out leap defenders for the football. I would make sure Teddy Bridgewater is in lineups that contain Albert O hoping to capture some multi-touchdown magic
Captain: Patrick Mahomes
Flex: Travis Kelce, Byron Pringle, Jerry Jeudy
Captain: Javonte Williams
Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Noah Fant
Captain: Javonte Williams
Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Courtland Sutton
Captain: Travis Kelce
Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Javonte Williams, Tim Patrick
Captain: Tyreek Hill
Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Mecole Hardman, Javonte Williams