Scott Barrett's Week 14 DFS Breakdown

What is this column? Each week I’ll be listing the best and most-interesting plays of the week, grouped by position, and ranked and tiered in some sort of descending order. Keep in mind, we’re looking only at the players available on the main slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

This article is long. It’s going to be long every week. Ideally, it’s all you should need to know to be able to profit playing DFS in any given week.

Be sure to also watch our DFS Preview livestream every Friday at 3PM EST. Be sure to get in our Discord — if you’re not in there already, you’re missing out on a lot of important news updates as well as personal guidance and advice from our experts. And, most importantly, be sure to check back on Sunday mornings for the “Sunday Morning Update” – basically a TLDR version of this piece along with any injury-related updates we might need.

Anyway, let’s dive in…

TLDR: Too Long, Didn’t Read

Graham’s Thoughts:

• Jeff Wilson becomes far less attractive if Deebo Samuel plays. Deebo has 5-6 carries in his range of outcomes + red-zone work. Wilson needs TDs to hit a ceiling.

• I’d have McLaurin a bit higher – few WRs carry the slate-breaking upside he has.

• I’m higher on Hooper, especially on FD where he’s near the minimum.

• Elijah Moore is out. Tony Pollard is likely to miss. We’ll have an update for you on that and all other important news in the Sunday Update.

How to Play this Slate

There have been some ugly slates this year, but Week 14 is by far the worst. It’s an absolutely abominable, ugly, very difficult slate.

To start off the week, there were very few plays which stood out to me, looking at price, matchup, and recent volume or production. Almost no plays clicked in all three phases. Meanwhile, last week, there were at least 10. And then beyond that, there’s still a lot of injury news left to digest. News, which could swing a player +/- 5.0 projected points in either direction.

But even if we already knew all of the injury news we’ll know on Sunday, it’s still the grossest slate of the season. You can poke a number of holes in just about any play we’ll write up. And, well, that’s the nature of this unique slate.

For this reason, I think it’s especially important we lean even more heavily on the great and unique work of Wes Huber. And I’ll be doing that in this piece, re-posting some of the highlights from his Advanced Matchups column.

I also think this is a great week to go heavy on gamestacks in tournaments. When every play feels shaky, it makes more sense to lean stack-heavy. For instance, if you play Joe Mixon stacked with CIN DST, and Tom Brady stacked with Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, and Stefon Diggs, (ideally) you only need to get 5 things right, instead of 9. (You need Cincinnati to win in a convincing matter, you need a pass-heavy shootout in BUF@TB, and then you need to get the other 3 empty spots right.)

Like I said, it’s definitely an ugly slate, but I also think it’s going to be a highly profitable slate for us. Analysis elsewhere around the industry feels lazy or sloppy. And I think I have a really good grasp on this slate. And I think I’ve found some big edges for us.

We’ll see…

Gamestacks

The highest over/under games this week are: BUF@TB (53.5), SF@CIN (48.5), and DAL@WAS (48.0).

The teams with the highest implied point total are: Chiefs (29.0), Buccaneers (28.5), Broncos (26.5), Cowboys (26.25), and Chargers (26.25).

I know this sounds a little insane but I want to be much lower than the field on BUF@TB, which is by far the chalkiest game of slate

BUF@TB is easy to fall in love with: the two QB leaders by FPG facing off against each other in what could be a massively high-scoring shootout. The spread is close, implying a shootout, with Tampa Bay favored by 3.5-points. I have a hard time imagining one of Leonard Fournette, Rob Gronkowski, Chris Godwin, or Mike Evans isn’t on a winning lineup. I already discussed all of them, and the league-winning juggernaut-nature of this Tampa Bay offense in more detail here. And then, of course, if this game is in any way competitive, which Vegas thinks it will be, Josh Allen and his pass-catchers will have to put up a lot of points.

Last week I told Discord to bet on New England to beat Buffalo, to hammer the overs on the RBs, and unders on everyone else. Obviously, the inclimate weather was a massive factor, but I also think most teams would be better off leaning run-heavy against this Buffalo defense. They’re the top run funnel defense by run rate over expectation (+6.7%), and ranked No. 4 even before last week. They’re giving 5.65 YPC to RBs over the last 3 weeks, but lead the league in opposing passer rating (62.9). And, that's actually the 2nd-best mark by any defense this past decade. So, I don’t really love Brady stacks as much as I think the field is going to. And, instead, I’ll be prioritizing Fournette on my own lineups.

But that said, all of the other Tampa Bay pass-catchers can still hit big, even with a run-heavy approach.

Through 6 full games, Rob Gronkowski averages 8.0 targets per game, 14.0 XFP/G, 72.7 YPG, and 18.8 FPG. Among all TEs, those numbers rank 4th, 4th, 1st, and 1st (22% more FPG than next-closest, Travis Kelce). Heck, among WRs, he ranks 15th in YPG and 7th in FPG… At age 32, Gronkowski has shown no signs of slowing down. He ranks 2nd-best among all TEs in PFF receiving grade, he leads all players at all positions in end zone targets per game (1.14), and he’s eclipsed an 80% route share in each of his last 2 games (up from 59%). And, so he’s glaringly mispriced at just $6,000 on DraftKings. I like him a lot. And so does Wes Huber, who talked about this being a perfect coverage shell matchup for skillset.

Since Week 7, Chris Godwin averages 20.3 FPG, which ranks behind only Deebo Samuel (20.8) among all slate-eligible WRs. But he's priced as just the WR6 and WR5 on the week. He comes fresh off of a game in which he gained 152 YFS on 17 targets (15 catches). But this week’s matchup is brutal. Buffalo ranks 2nd-best in FPG allowed to opposing slot WRs (9.9). CB Taron Johnson is easily a top-5 slot CB, Godwin has never done well in man-heavy matchups (per Wes Huber), and, with CB Tre’Davious White out, this matchup looks even worse in comparison (or at least relative to Mike Evans).

Among all slate-eligible WRs, Mike Evans ranks 6th in FPG (16.7) since Week 7. He’s a sizable distance behind Godwin, but he’s also significantly cheaper — $1,100 cheaper on DraftKings and $500 cheaper on FanDuel — priced as the WR11 and WR9 of the slate. His on-paper matchup is even tougher — Buffalo ranks best in FPG allowed to outside WRs (12.9), and best against WR1s (-6.0) — but I like his matchup more than Godwin’s this week. Without CB Tre’Davious White, expect Evans to run nearly half of his routes against backup CB Dane Johnson. Wes Huber also loves his coverage shell matchup, though it’s not quite as favorable as Gronkowski’s.

Buffalo’s side legitimately concerns me. I think there’s a decent chance they, simply, “don’t show up.” They’ve lost 4 of their last 7 games. The coverage shell matchup is a nightmare for Allen (through the air), per Wes Huber, who wrote, “I’m not going to venture so far as to list Allen ($7.8K/$8.8K) as a complete Avoid with his ability to generate numbers on the ground. But the Buccaneers are presenting a rotation that features the exact coverages that shut Allen down in Weeks 9 and 11.”

CB Carlton Davis has been a top shadow CB over the last few years, and he’ll be back this week to take on WR Stefon Diggs. (CB Richard Sherman will be back as well.) WR Emmanuel Sanders, at age 34, looks fully cooked, failing to reach 30 receiving yards in 4 straight games. WR Gabriel Davis is inexplicably only a part-time player. The RB situation is a mess, and has been for a number of years. And this matchup dictates Buffalo would be better off totally neglecting the RBs, something they (and other Tampa Bay opponents) have been happy to do in recent weeks. WR Cole Beasley hasn’t cleared 5 targets in 4 straight weeks, averaging 5.4 FPG over this span. And Tampa Bay ranks 3rd-best in FPG allowed to slot WRs. (Though Sean Murphy-Bunting is back in the slot, and hasn’t played well, just last week getting cremated by Russell Gage.) Beasley has also, seemingly, been leapfrogged by Dawson Knox in the target pecking order. I do, actually, like Knox, but he also isn’t cheap.

SF@CIN I’m a little less bullish on as well. WR Deebo Samuel, RB Elijah Mitchell, and RB Jeff Wilson are all at least a little banged up. As is RB Joe Mixon and WR Tee Higgins for the Bengals. And Joe Burrow is dealing with a broken pinkie finger to his throwing hand, and wasn’t particularly effective following that injury. All of these injuries could condense XFP into a week-winning score for someone else, but I’m more inclined to bet San Francisco to win and the under to hit.

That said, it’s hard to argue against Burrow stacks if Mixon sits.

But if Mixon plays, I’d expect both teams to lean massively run-heavy. HC Kyle Shanahan seems more concerned with establishing the run than actually winning games. Joe Mixon has 77 carries over his last 3 games, and we should expect the Bengals to lean even heavier on the ground game due to Burrow’s injury. But, then again, if this game turns into a pass-heavy shootout, and if Burrow is even mildly competent, one or multiple of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Ja’Marr Chase, or Tee Higgins could post week-winning scores.

DAL@WAS is intriguing, but Washington hasn’t been as vulnerable against the pass in recent weeks. Their offense has leaned more run-heavy, their pace has slowed, and their defense has played a lot better. Over their last 5 games, opposing QBs are averaging just 14.1 passing FPG against them. This coincides with a savvy scheme-shift, which Wes Huber talked about here.

Has Washington totally fixed their defense? It’s hard to say. And, at the very least, they’ve been easily the worst pass defense in football for much of the season. And, with both RB Ezekiel Elliott and RB Tony Pollard banged up, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Dallas lean hyper-pass-heavy. And they should. Even if Washington’s pass defense has improved, their run defense is still significantly better (2nd-best in YPC allowed), and they are still the top pass-funnel in football by a wide margin (+6.9%). So, I do like Prescott-stacks quite a bit, with the added bonus of providing leverage against Antonio Gibson.

I like Antonio Gibson a lot, but I also don’t think it’s a coincidence his recent hot-streak has coincided with a 4-game win streak. Obviously, I’d love if Washington finally unleashed Gibson in the passing game, but we’ve yet to see that happen. Even over the last two weeks, he averages just 29.0 receiving YPG, and then 9.0 receiving YPG over his prior 7. So, he does seem quite a bit gamescript-dependent to me, regardless of J.D. McKissic’s status. That’s especially an issue this week, with Dallas favored by 4.5-points. (But, of course, if Washington wins, he’s probably the best RB play of the slate on DraftKings.)

The issue with NYG@LAC is there’s legitimately no one on the Giants side I like. The 9.0-point spread isn’t doing Justin Herbert any favors, and we do have to downgrade him a bit with Keenan Allen sitting out. But, still, he’s a phenomenal GPP-play every single week. Herbert to Mike Williams and/or Josh Palmer stacks are exceedingly cheap, and Herbert has been a GPP-juggernaut this year. He’s tied with Tom Brady for the position-high in DK FPG (25.3), and has flashed an obscene ceiling, averaging 35.8 DK FPG in his top-40% of games (compared to Brady’s 33.7, who ranks 2nd). That said, Austin Ekeler feels like the sharper play on paper. The Giants have an underrated and legitimately stout pass defense, and they’re much worse against the run. They rank 7th-best in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing QBs (-1.4), and 4th-best over the past 5 weeks (-6.4).

So, I like Kansas City gamestacks the most. And by a wide margin. I think Mike Clay summed it up perfectly in the Week 14 Shadow Report:

“The Chiefs have faced two-high safeties a league-high 58% of the time this season, which has been the way opposing defenses are trying to eliminate their explosive plays. However, when these teams faced off in Week 10, the Raiders used two-high 28% of the time (the least Kansas City has seen it this season), instead sticking with their Cover-3 scheme. The Chiefs feasted, with Patrick Mahomes throwing for a season-high 406 yards and five touchdown passes. Perhaps the Raiders will adjust this week, but considering that they didn't last month and that they rank first in Cover-3 (46.2%) and last in two-high safety looks (24.8%), it's not something we should expect.”

In Week 10, against the Raiders, Patrick Mahomes scored 39.2 DK fantasy points. In his other 5 most recent games, he averages just 11.6.

Tyreek Hill dropped 27.5 DK fantasy points in Week 10, but averages just 14.3 in his other 5 most recent games.

And Travis Kelce dropped 22.9, but averages just 12.3 in his other 5 most recent games.

It’s no doubt risky and expensive, but it should also be far less popular than TB- and BUF-stacks. And I like that risk-reward, especially on a week without many other exciting high-ceiling plays.

Mahomes and his receivers have also gotten pretty unlucky with drops in recent weeks. Over his last 5 games, his receivers have totaled a league-high 16 dropped passes (120 air yards), and with 2 of those drops resulting in interceptions.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

[DK: RB1, FD: RB1]

Ekeler is our highest-projected RB of the week (not just of the slate), meaning he’s egregiously mispriced at just $8.300 on DraftKings. Per the SuperModel, he’s the No. 1-overall value on the slate, mispriced by nearly $1,200.

Ekeler averages 22.0 FPG this season, which leads all slate-eligible RBs by +1.75. As I've argued for a few months now, he should be viewed almost no differently from 2020 Alvin Kamara, while 2021 Alvin Kamara should be viewed almost no differently from 2020 Austin Ekeler.

Ekeler is finally a full-on bell cow, playing on 67% of the team’s snaps, and averaging 12.9 carries (69%) and 6.2 targets (80%) per game. But more importantly, he’s finally being used near the end zone. He ranks 6th among all RBs in XTD. He’s averaging 0.70 XTD per game (up from 0.42) and his XTD% is up to 77% (from 42%).

With Keenan Allen out, there will be a high number of vacated (low aDOT) targets that might go to Ekeler this week. And, on top of that, the matchup is excellent. The Giants rank 6th-worst in YPC allowed (4.49), they rank bottom-6 in rushing and bottom-10 in receiving YPG allowed to opposing RBs, and rank 7th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs (+1.6).

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

[DK: RB2, FD: RB2]

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

Kamara has the best matchup of any RB in Week 14, with the Jets giving up an incredible +11.5 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (46% more than the next closest team). And Mark Ingram (COVID) appears unlikely to play this week, which almost certainly gives Kamara a higher share of backfield XFP given he captured 82% of backfield XFP before Ingram joined the team, compared to 71% when both he and Ingram were active in Weeks 8 and 9.

So this is a dream scenario for the swag captain of the NFL, right? Unfortunately, not quite. Taysom Hill is expected to start at QB this week, and Kamara averaged just 14.2 FPG and 4.0 targets per game during Hill’s 4 game stretch as the starter in 2020. Kamara also never exceeded 18 touches in any of those games, something he’s done in every game except 2 this season.

And it wasn’t just Kamara, the entire backfield took a hit with Hill as the starter. Since 2019, Saints RBs average 31.2 FPG with Drew Brees under center, 27.6 FPG with Teddy Bridgewater, 24.1 FPG with Jameis Winston, and only 20.5 FPG with Taysom Hill under center.

So what do we make of this?

Well, Kamara’s share of backfield XFP (should Ingram be inactive) and his matchup are undoubtedly the best on the slate. But he risks reduced target volume, lower backfield productivity, and the possibility Taysom Hill could vulture goal line TDs. So I think it’s fair to view him as the Kamara of old, but with significantly more downside risk than we are used to. That takes him out of consideration for cash games, but he’s still a strong value in tournaments given the backfield situation and the Jets’ egregious numbers against opposing RBs.

Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

[DK: RB5, FD: RB5]

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

Over the last 4 games, Fournette leads all slate-eligible RBs in targets per game (7.8) and FPG (24.2), while also ranking 4th in touches (79). More importantly, Fournette has eclipsed an 80% snap share in each of the last 2 weeks, something he has only managed to do once previously during the regular season in his Buccaneers tenure (Week 4). His market share over the backfield XFP has jumped from 61% to 77% over the last 4 weeks. And, what’s most impressive is his involvement in the passing game. He’s seen at least 5 targets in 8 of his last 9 games, and averages 7.8 targets per game over his last 4. And he’s productive as well, averaging 14.1 receiving FPG over his last 4 games. (For perspective, Christian McCaffrey averages 13.1 receiving FPG throughout his career.)

Fournette is now a true bell cow on the league’s highest-scoring offense (31.4 PPG), commanding 79% of RB opportunities over the last 2 weeks in a backfield that’s averaging 27.9 FPG (6th-most). This is an extremely valuable role, and despite the tough on-paper matchup, Fournette still appears underpriced.

The Buccaneers are 3.5-point favorites this week, and their 28.0 implied team total signals that oddsmakers expect another strong offensive performance from the defending Super Bowl champions. That’s surely good news for Fournette, who averages 21.2 DraftKings FPG and 18.4 FanDuel FPG in Buccaneers wins this season, and 20.4 DraftKings FPG and 17.6 FanDuel FPG when the Bucs’ implied team total is over 27.5 this year. Both of those marks easily make Fournette a top-3 RB on this slate, and yet he’s the RB5 (by salary) on both sites.

Buffalo ranks as the 6th-toughest matchup for opposing RBs based on schedule-adjusted FPG this year (-2.7), but they’ve been significantly more vulnerable lately, allowing +0.5 schedule-adjusted FPG over their last 5 games (13th-most). So this matchup isn’t nearly as difficult as it initially appears.

He’s a top-3 RB on both sites by raw projection, and a top-5 value RB on both sites once we account for pricing. I’ll be leaning into the play primarily on Fanduel, where he ranks as our 2nd-best value RB and can be locked into cash lineups.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

[DK: RB12, FD: RB11]

Jalen Richard is confirmed out, so Jacobs appears fully locked-in to a bell cow workload. Per our projections, he’s now the 2nd-best RB value of the slate (on DraftKings). And, still, for some reason I’m a little hesitant to go all-in. Or at least for tournaments. This was what we’ve long been waiting for. But I do expect Kansas City to truck the Raiders, as does Vegas (favoring them by 10.0-points). Jacobs’ 11 targets last week is drool-inducing, and gives him a massive floor, but I still question the upside. I suspect in Quarters 2-4, it will become fully apparent Las Vegas will have to completely abandon the run, and I question his touchdown-upside, given the Raiders’ 19.0-point implied total (0.5 less than the Falcons, 0.25 more than the Jets).

The Chiefs rank 8th-worst in YPC allowed (4.46) and middle-of-the-pack in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs (-0.2).

From the Week 14 XFP Report:

Last week, RB Jalen Richard was out (COVID) and Kenyan Drake played on just 7 snaps prior to a season-ending ankle injury. And Jacobs was (for the first time in his career) a full-on bell cow in their absence, setting a career-high in snap share (85%) and catches (9).

On 13 of 13 carries, 10 of 11 targets, and 2 of 2 opportunities inside the red zone, Jacobs scored 24.0 fantasy points on a 24.0 expectation (4th-most among RBs on the week). Both marks were season-highs for Jacobs.

I think it remains to be seen whether or not this was outlier usage, or if Las Vegas will let Jacobs be a bell cow when Richard returns. But this question is of massive importance, and is probably worth about 6.0 FPG at minimum to Jacobs-owners.

And maybe 6.0 FPG is too conservative. Jacobs has long been one of the most gamescript-sensitive RBs in fantasy. Across his career, he averages 8.8 more FPG in wins (20.0) than losses (11.2). And Las Vegas’ RBs lead the league in receptions and receiving yards, and average 14.3 receiving FPG. But Jacobs himself averages just 6.3 receiving FPG.

I’m not sure why he was so long an afterthought in the passing game, and why he was never given a chance to be a true bell cow — he was a promising pass-catcher in college, leading his class in career YPRR (2.06) and career YPT average (10.4) — but maybe this is his chance. And maybe now you’ve got yourself a league-winning RB1 down the stretch.

Again, it wouldn’t take much. Jacobs has handled just 63% of the team’s backfield XFP (18th), but ranks 13th in XFP/G (15.6). If that moved to just 75% (7th-most), he’d rank 6th in XFP/G (18.6), in between Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette.

Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team

[DK: RB14, FD: RB8]

If McKissic is out, Gibson becomes (clearly) the best value-play at the position and mega-chalk. But even if McKissic plays, he’s still arguably the best value-play at the position. We’re currently projecting McKissic to play (and score 9.2 fantasy points), and Gibson is still our top RB-value on DraftKings (3.08X). So, he’s no doubt a great play, but as I discussed earlier, I have my reservations, and he’s still fairly easily fadeable from an ownership perspective.

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

With J.D. McKissic out, Gibson finally saw elite, bell cow-type usage in Week 13. He earned a career-high 82% snap share, just one week after setting his previous career-high in snap share (67%). And he captured 82% of backfield routes and 75% of backfield targets – a marked improvement on his 38% route share and 32% backfield target share from the first 12 weeks of the season.

So, if McKissic (who didn’t practice Wednesday) is out again in Week 14, then we can view Gibson as a true bell cow, high-end RB1.

That, on its own, makes Gibson a clear value as he’s priced as the RB14 on DraftKings and the RB8 on Fanduel. But he’s also playing in the 3rd-highest total game of the slate (48.0) and this game ranks 1st in Graham Barfield’s pace and plays game model, so we can add the outstanding game environment to the litany of reasons to be bullish.

With that said, Gibson is facing a difficult matchup, as Dallas ranks as the 2nd-toughest schedule-adjusted defense for opposing RBs (-4.6). While it’s reasonable to slightly ding Gibson for that, our projections suggest he’s still in line to see more touches per dollar of salary than any other player on this slate, and I’d absolutely agree. He’s an outstanding value, and an easy lock button play in cash should McKissic be out in Week 14.

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos

[DK: RB16, FD: RB15]

Even with Gordon expected back, Williams deserves serious consideration in this pillow-soft matchup. We have him listed as the 3rd-best RB value of the slate (on DraftKings), expecting only a 60/40 committee in his favor. So, with Gordon limited in practice all week, if that’s actually 70/30 or better, he could be a near week-winner.

The only other update to the analysis further below is that RB Mike Boone is out for the Broncos, and the Lions have 10 defensive players listed on their injury report as questionable or out.

The Lions run a 3-4 defense. Every 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-string defender on their front-line is questionable or out. Every single one. They have 2 of 4 starting LBs confirmed out; their weakside LB (Julian Okwara) and their right inside LB (Jalen Reeves-Maybin). Their strongside LB (Charles Harris) and his direct backup (Austin Bryant) are both questionable. And their free safety and highest-graded run defender Tracy Walker is out. Depending on who is out, this might be not only the best matchup for any RB this week, but the best matchup for any RB this season.

From Start / Sit:

I already spent a great deal of time talking about Williams here, but here’s the synopsis:

Through the first 12 weeks of the season, Williams was looking uniquely elite in terms of hyper-efficiency, though he was frustratingly stuck in a 50/50 committee (technically 48/52) with Melvin Gordon. But, with Gordon out last week, we finally got to see Williams in the bell cow role we were long awaiting. And he again looked elite, scoring 30.0 fantasy points (most) on a 26.9-point expectation (2nd-most).

So what happens next? Might Denver keep him in that bell cow role? Has he at least earned more work, possibly tipping this backfield towards 70/30 in his favor? Or will Denver go back to that frustrating 50/50 committee?

It’s hard to say what exactly might happen. But the upside of more work coming Williams’ way — especially with Gordon still banged up (hip) — needs to be factored into the analysis. As such, we’re viewing him as a low-end RB1 this week. But, even if we were promised a 50/50 committee, you’d still be starting Williams as a mid-range RB2 at worst.

That’s because this week’s matchup is just about perfect. Denver is favored by 7.5-points, and Denver is the 6th-most run-heavy team when playing with a lead of 5 or more points (60%). And Detroit ranks 4th-worst in rushing FPG allowed (16.3) and 4th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs (+4.8).

Jeff Wilson Jr., RB, San Francisco 49ers

[DK: RB45, FD: RB53]

RB Elijah Mitchell is confirmed out. WR Deebo Samuel is questionable but it seems likely he’ll play. That’s worth, I think, a significant downgrade to Wilson. Samuel averages 6.3 carries and 14.0 receiving FPG over his last 3 games.

Still, Wilson is one of the better pure values of the slate. Well, a “value in a vacuum”. He’s still exceedingly risky, volatile, or boom-or-bust. San Francisco's RB1 averages 20.6 DK FPG in their best 50% of games, but just 9.3 DK FPG in their worst 50% of games. Wilson himself averaged 27.8 DK FPG in his 4 best games last year, but just 4.9 DK FPG the rest of the time. (Though granted, his role back then wasn’t quite as good as it’s going to be this week.)

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

*

It could be a one week outlier, but Elijah Mitchell maintained bell cow status even with pass catching RB JaMycal Hasty back in the fold. Should Mitchell continue to earn 90% of backfield opportunities going forward, then we are looking at approximately 19.9 FPG, given this backfield has averaged 22.1 FPG this season. That, on its own, makes Mitchell a clear value, as 19.9 FPG would rank 2nd among all slate-eligible RBs in Week 14, behind only Austin Ekeler.

He also draws a favorable matchup against a Cincinnati team (albeit as 1.0-point underdogs) that has allowed the 6th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+2.5) and the 3rd-most receiving FPG to opposing RBs (14.0) – an important note given Mitchell has commanded 90% of backfield targets and 89% of backfield routes over the last 2 weeks.

With all that said, Mitchell has entered concussion protocol and is dealing with a knee issue, so he hasn’t practiced this week. With his Week 14 status looking iffy at best, Jeff Wilson becomes the obvious pivot, should Mitchell sit.

Without Mitchell, Wilson should see the vast majority of rushing work in the NFL’s 7th-most productive rushing backfield (125.9 YPG), which would make him a screaming value on both sites as the RB45 (by salary) on DraftKings and the RB53 on Fanduel. But, Wilson will almost certainly be vulnerable to gamescript, as his work in the pass game is virtually nonexistent, averaging just 0.8 targets per game and 4.5 routes per game this season. That presents obvious risk for cash games, but Wilson is certainly still viable in those formats, especially on Fanduel where he is relatively cheaper and receiving work matters less.

And in tournaments, assuming Mitchell sits, I’ll likely have most of my Wilson exposure geared towards a San Francisco win, and that means pairing him with SF D/ST, rather than using him as a bring-back on Cincinnati stacks.

James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

[DK: RB18, FD: RB21]

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

In Week 13, James Robinson saw just 9 touches, a season-low 26 snaps, and scored a season-low 2.5 fantasy points.

The way Urban Meyer and the Jaguars handled RB rotations in that game was strange, to say the least. So strange, in fact, that even Trevor Lawrence spoke about his frustration with James Robinson being kept off the field.

{{

*Here’s #Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence’s full answer on James Robinson and having continuity in the backfield:

“Bottom line is James is one of our best players and he’s gotta be on the field, and we addressed it, and I feel like we’re in a good spot.” pic.twitter.com/YJXDuYiSWA*

— Demetrius Harvey (@Demetrius82) December 8, 2021

}}

Now, could Robinson’s lack of reps these last few weeks be the result of the heel injury he’s been nursing since Week 8? Absolutely. But, Lawrence’s statement that the Jaguars “are in a good spot” in regards to getting him more playing time suggests that Robinson may be headed for a similar workload to what he saw from Weeks 3 through 6, when he was their bell cow and averaged 19.8 touches per game, 17.3 XFP per game, and 21.7 FPG. Among slate-eligible RBs, those numbers would rank 4th-, 6th-, and 3rd-best. And yet, Robinson is priced as the RB18 on DraftKings and the RB21 on Fanduel.

So if he does return to being the JRob of Weeks 3 through 6, he’s easily one of the top RB values on the slate, despite a tougher matchup against a Tennessee team that’s allowed the 7th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-2.5) to opposing RBs. Gamescript is a concern given the Jags’ 17.25 implied point total, but excluding last week, Robinson has averaged 17.1 DraftKings FPG and 14.9 Fanduel FPG in his career when the Jacksonville team total is 20.0 points or lower (10 instances). So with his usual bell cow role, gamescript may not actually hamper him that much.

The problem is, though, that we have no way of knowing if Robinson will return to bell cow status this week. I think he will, and so does Wes Huber, but I’m certainly not confident enough to warrant calling Robinson anything close to a cash game play. For tournaments, however, Robinson represents an excellent contrarian play and a compelling pivot off of similarly-priced Antonio Gibson on DraftKings.

Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

[DK: RB3, FD: RB3]

Notes: Joe Mixon’s illness seems a little bit more serious than I initially anticipated. He was listed as a DNP in practice all week, but (per Zac Taylor) is expected to play. Obviously, this makes him more risky, and he was already pretty risky to begin with (though the upside is still there)… When Joe Mixon went down in Week 5, Samaje Perine was a full on bell cow. Minus Mixon (28% of the team’s snaps), he played on 85% of the team’s snaps, earning 11 of 11 carries and 5 of 7 targets out of the backfield. I think Mixon will play, but if he’s out I’ll have a longer writeup on Perine in the Sunday Update.

Mixon has found the end zone in 9 of his last 9 games. He’s finished top-4 at the position in 5 of his last 7 games, averaging 22.8 FPG over this span (behind only Jonathan Taylor and Alvin Kamara). He’s on quite the hot streak, and he’s undeniably a mid-range RB1 at-worst moving forward, but…

His role hasn’t been quite as good as we were promised, which is to say he’s still far more a workhorse (but a highest-end workhorse) than a true bell cow. We were promised an 80% snap share with heavy target volume, but he’s at a 67% snap share and has fewer than 5 receiving yards in 8 of 12 games this year.

His role really hasn’t changed much at all from 2020, with Samaje Perine serving as the team’s new Giovani Bernard. He’s scoring more fantasy points, yes, but that’s because his gamescript is significantly improved, and the offense as a whole is much more potent (more sustained drives, more scoring opportunities, etc.). Mixon has handled 78% of the team’s carries but just 48% of the targets out of the backfield, which comes out to only 69% of the backfield XFP (10th-most). And, so, with the other RBs siphoning off about 50% of the passing-down work, Mixon is going to continue to be highly-volatile and gamescript dependent on a week-to-week basis.

Since 2018, Mixon averages 24.4 DK FPG in wins but only 14.3 FPG in losses.

All this to say, Mixon is risky, but offers massive upside. And that’s especially true this week. Joe Burrow’s injury likely results in more work for Mixon, but it also means the offensive environment might not be as strong as it has been.

And gamescript this week is a concern, with San Francisco favored by 2.0-points. Otherwise, the on paper matchup looks strong. San Francisco ranks 8th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs (+1.5), and 8th-worst in rushing FPG allowed to opposing RBs. Though, to be fair, that’s been heavily bolstered by touchdowns (12, 4th-most), and they rank 12th-best by rushing YPG allowed (83.3) and 8th-best YPC allowed (3.95).

But again, I think the crucial variable is the spread. If Cincinnati wins, and Mixon is 100% healthy, he should smash. But Vegas gives that a ~45% chance of that happening. He’s a fine GPP play and a “value in a vacuum”, but not as strong of a play as he’s been in recent weeks.

Other / Notes

I spent a great deal of time on Saquon Barkley here. Yes, he’s seen excellent work of late, and has a strong on-paper matchup, but I’m extremely skeptical. He’s clearly not playing at close to 100% (and by his own admission), and we have a long sample of Barkley struggling while playing through ankle injuries. Further, this team is now led by Mike freaking Glennon.

Since Week 2 (and excluding Week 10 due to injury), Cordarrelle Patterson averages 20.5 FPG and 15.6 XFP/G. If over the full season, those numbers would rank 4th- and 12th-best among all RBs. Or, 3rd- and 17th-best among all WRs… On-paper the matchup for Patterson is tough, but matchups haven’t mattered at all to Patterson this year, actually averaging more FPG in his toughest matchups. The Panthers did hold him to just 72 YFS in Week 8, but he still scored 18.2 fantasy points… Russell Gage’s matchup is brutal, as is Kyle Pitts’ (against mostly Stephon Gilmore). So, although Atlanta’s 19.0-point total is low (but not low for them), he still has decent odds of posting a week-winning score.

In Advanced Matchups, Wes Huber made an extremely compelling case for Rashaad Penny (RB36 / RB37). And shortly after that article was published, HC Pete Carroll said, "He expects Penny to ‘be a big part’ of the Seahawks' offensive game plan Sunday at Houston." I know it feels gross, but he’s a solid play nonetheless, and he’s exceedingly cheap and no one else will roster him.

On our livestream, Johnny talked up the idea of D’Onta Foreman (RB29 / RB26) stacked with Tennessee’s DST against the Jaguars. Foreman is fresh off of 20 touches for 112 YFS in a 13-36 loss against New England. Vegas expects Tennessee to drop 26.0-points and win by 8.5. If Mike Davis was (once upon a time) 80% Christian McCaffrey, Foreman could be 80% Derrick Henry in this matchup… But what makes me nervous is Dontrell Hilliard also saw 12 carries last week, and was similarly excellent, gaining 131 yards on the ground (10.9 YPC).

Godwin Igwbuike or Jermar Jefferson with Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift out? Hard pass on what looks to be a 50/50 committee on the worst offense in football.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

[DK: WR1, FD: WR1]

Hill has seen 9 or more targets in 8 of his last 9 games, but hit that mark in just 8 of his prior 24 games. He’s historically cheap against a defense he dominated just 4 weeks ago. No player on this slate has anywhere near the slate-busting upside Hill does.

From Wes Huber’s Advanced Matchups:

During his Week 10 matchup with the Raiders, Tyreek Hill submitted a 7/83/2 line on 10 targets for 27.5/24.0 FPs. It’s a far cry from the 2/22/0 line he generated on five targets for 4.2/3.2 FPs last week against Denver. I took the opportunity to refresh my brain on Hill’s matchup with Las Vegas. One variable quickly stood out: OC Eric Bieniemy insisted on shifting Hill all over the formation in order to create specific matchups. One of the downsides of using a single coverage at such a high rate is opposing offenses tracking defensive alignments. And Bieniemy took advantage of just that to pitt Hill across from Johnathan Abram (2/11/2), a disgusting pwnage of Desmond Trufant in the red zone (1/8/1), and, specifically, putting Brandon Facyson out to dry as much as possible (2/48/0). Raiders’ DC Gus Bradley tried everything in his toolkit to keep Hill in the vicinity of Casey Hayward Jr. It didn’t work. Hayward just couldn’t station himself in more than one place at a time. Patrick Mahomes II connected for 406 passing yards and five TDs.

Based on the disgusting results from Bradley spending so much effort trying to isolate Hill, we may actually see the Raiders allow the matchups to work themselves out on their own in Week 14. And that’s precisely why I am recommending the wideout with the WR3/WR2 salary. Which, to be clear, is actually great value for Hill since he’s typically priced as the WR1/WR1. The Raiders are using the highest rate of Cover 3 this season. Hill requires no introduction, I’ll just state that, during his last 39 games, he’s created 0.46 FP/Rt (10th-most) across from Cover 3. And Facyson is gift-wrapping 1.45 YPCS (15th-most), 0.37 FP/CS (third-most), 0.33 AY/CS (second-most), a 118.8 passer rating (seventh-highest), and the seventh-highest completion rate on throws of 20-plus yards.

Hunter Renfrow, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

[DK: WR16, FD: WR16]

Renfrow earned double-digit targets for the first time in his career last week, when he hit 100 receiving yards for the second week in a row. He’s now finished as a top-12 fantasy option in 4 of his last 5 games following the release of Henry Ruggs, averaging 16.8 FPG over this span (14th-most). Across the full season, Renfrow ranks 23rd in FPG (14.5), just ahead of Terry McLaurin (14.4) and D.K. Metcalf (14.3).

From Wes Huber’s Advanced Matchups:

No team has used Cover 2 more than the Chiefs since Week 6, the second-highest rate this season. LV and KC just faced each other in Week 10. And Renfrow manufactured a 7/46/1 line on nine targets for 17.6/14.1 FPs.

Renfrow was put on this earth to destroy Cover 2. He leads all qualified WRs with 0.52 FP/Rt, ranks second with 2.85 YPRR, and draws the second-highest target share when defenses put a Cover 2 on the field (27%) during his 41-game career. I’m counting on the field being scared off Renfrow due to Kansas City’s defensive hot streak. They are holding opposing WRs to 31.9 FPG (seventh-fewest). But they are permitting 252.5 passing YPG (ninth-most) and 7.25 YPA (sixth-most).

In addition, the Chiefs are passporting 0.36 FP/CS (13th-most), a 120.8 TPR (eighth-highest), and 24% completion rate on throws of 20-plus yards (sixth-highest) against play action. It just so happens that Renfrow is catalyzing 31% of his total FPG output (4.72) on play action. He's producing 0.47 FP/Rt (13th-most) and has been provided with a 20+% target share in seven of his last nine games. L’Jarius Sneed will be in primary, press-zone coverage. He’s granting 1.35 YPCS (10th-most among 41 qualified nickelbacks), 0.32 FP/CS (fourth-most), and a 107.2 TPR (ninth-highest). Don’t sleep!

Los Angeles Chargers WRs

WR Keenan Allen is out, leaving behind 11.3 targets per game. WR Mike Williams is expected to play, only needing to test negative for COVID on Friday. And, in that case, Williams becomes (glaringly) one of the best plays of the slate.

Among all slate-eligible and active WRs, he ranks 10th in FPG (15.2) and 12th in XFP/G (15.3), but just 17th (DK) and 13th (FD) in pricing.

From 2018-2020, there were only 4 games in which Allen sat out or played on fewer than 35% of the team’s snaps. In those games, Williams averaged 8.5 targets and 22.5 FPG. In all other games, he averaged just 4.9 targets and 9.7 FPG.

The Giants rank 6th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to WR1s (+2.6), but 15th in FPG allowed to outside WRs (21.3). CB Adoree Jackson is out, which could mean a far more advantageous matchup than that latter stat implies. But, then again, it might also mean shadow coverage against CB James Bradberry. But, then again (again), maybe that doesn’t matter. Bradberry was great in shadow coverage last year, but, this year, ranks 17th-worst of 63-qualifying CBs in fantasy points allowed per snap in coverage. (Jackson ranked top-15.) So, yeah, I’m viewing this as a very favorable matchup for Williams.

Jackson’s absence shakes things up a bit, but at least through the first 13 weeks of the season, the Giants were looking like a high-end slot funnel defense, ranking 9th-worst in FPG allowed to slot WRs (14.1). The question then is who earns the Keenan Allen-role and that soft matchup?

Jalen Guyton (DK: $3,400) has played more than Josh Palmer ($3,000) in recent weeks, and has been more effective. Guyton caught 4 of 4 targets for 90 yards and a score last week (53% route share). Palmer failed to haul in his lone target (33% route share). Over the team’s prior 5 games, Palmer averaged 20.0 snaps, 2.0 targets, and 22.0 YPG. Guyton averaged 31.6 snaps, 2.0 targets, and 15.6 YPG.

Still, I prefer Palmer straight up. Chargers beat writer for The Athletic Daniel Popper expects Palmer to move to the slot, and for Guyton to resume his role as the infrequently targeted deep-threat / field stretcher, presumably still coming off the field in 2WR sets. And it makes sense, GM Tom Telesco said Palmer’s versatility and ability to play inside and out was a key reason why he selected him in Round 3 of the 2021 NFL Draft.

I definitely prefer Palmer, but maybe not if WR K.J. Hill gets activated by Sunday. He’s definitely a slot WR. And, so, we could see a grosser slot WR-by-committee situation if he suits up.

Julio Jones, WR, Tennessee Titans

[DK: WR25, FD: WR18]

Wes Huber loves Julio Jones this week. John Proctor loves Julio Jones this week. I wanted to love Jones at his price-tag ($5,400 / $6,500) relative to Tennessee’s 26.0-point total (5th-most), but I have a few reservations. 1) Jones has shown us nothing all year. Well, granted, aside for that Week 2 game before the hamstring injury started flaring up. 2) I’m expecting Shaq Griffin to shadow, making this matchup at least a little more difficult than Huber alluded to below. In 5 shadow games, Griffin has held A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Stefon Diggs, and Michael Pittman to a combined 50.4 YPG.

I wanted to love him as a pure value-play, but couldn’t quite get there. He feels pretty risky. But I do like him a lot as a GPP-play, and I don’t expect him to be too highly owned.

From Wes Huber’s Advanced Matchups:

Jacksonville is situationally using Cover 1 at the 13th-highest rate, Cover 2 at the 10th-highest, and Cover 3 at the 13th-highest. Working against those three coverages during the last three seasons, Tannethrill has connected on 38 TDs vs. 12 INTs. When opposed by Cover 1 during his 40 games with Tennessee, Tannehill has supported his team with 0.50 FP/Db (eighth-highest), a 101.4 passer rating (ninth-highest), and featured play action on 35% of dropbacks (second-highest). During the same timeframe, he’s concentrating 0.43 FP/Db (ninth-most), a 100.1 passer rating (eighth-highest), a 13% increase in YPA (eighth-highest), and calling play action on 45% of dropbacks (second-highest rate).

The best example of the type of numbers Tannehill and Julio are capable of against Cover 3, look back to Week 2. A.J. Brown was still on the mend from double knee surgery. Tannehill fed Jones with a 6/128/0 line on eight targets for 21.8/15.8 FPs against the Cover 3-heavy scheme. Since then, Jones has played a secondary role to AJB in his five other games. Over his last 30 games, Jones has manufactured 0.54 FP/Rt (15th-most), 3.09 YPRR (ninth-most), and a 29% target rate when defenses put Cover 1 on the field (14th-highest). Against Cover 3, he’s been one of the very best in the game with 0.59 FP/Rt (fifth-most), 3.58 YPRR (the most), 12.8 YPT (fourth-most), and a 28% target rate (fourth-highest).

The Jags are giving way to 38.1 FPG to WRs (seventh-most) and 1.92 RZ touches/game (fourth-most). Jones is set to draw the most coverage snaps across from Tyson Campbell. The ‘21 second-rounder is handing out 1.63 YPCS (sixth-most among 79 qualified outside CBs), 0.32 FP/CS (13th-most), 0.18 AY/CS (24th-most), and a 103.9 TPR (25th-highest). Shaquill Griffin is set to return from a two-game absence due to lingering concussion symptoms. His quality coverage over Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($4.5K/$5.7K) places even more importance on Jones making an instant impact for the Titans in his first game off IR. And we can roster one of the top WRs in the game with a rookie in coverage with discount WR34/WR24 pricing.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

[DK: WR8, FD: WR10]

Chase averaged 20.9 FPG across his first 7 games, but just 10.8 FPG over his last 5.

What’s gone wrong? A number of things I discussed in great detail here. But 5 weeks ago I was predicting a heavy (negative) regression to the mean for Chase. And now I’m predicting a positive one.

Drops aren’t a sticky stat. It’s not something to worry about long-term. But they can be pretty costly.

Chase has 7 drops over his last 5 games. 3 of those targets have come deep, and 2 of those targets have come in the end zone. He averages just 10.8 FPG over this span. But if he caught all 7 of those passes, he’d be averaging somewhere between 16.8 FPG and 27.8 FPG.

I don’t think Chase is some terrific value, but he does offer immense upside on a relatively gross week. That said, our projections disagree, listing Chase as the top WR value on DraftKings, among all WRs priced above $5,000. And the top overall WR value on FanDuel.

Wes Huber might agree with that, but I don’t. Instead, I think he carries considerable risk, with Burrow playing through a dislocated pinkie. But again, he’s a great upside-play for tournaments.

From Wes Huber’s Advanced Matchups:

Losing Emmanuel Moseley could not have come at a worst time for the 49ers. Without Moseley — their top perimeter corner — SF will be forced to feature ‘21 fifth-rounder Deommodore Lenoir. His numbers are unqualified, but they are significant nonetheless. He’s distributing 1.46 YPCS, 0.32 FP/CS, 0.49 AY/CS, and a 121.1 TPR – all of which would rank at the very bottom of the ranks. And Lenoir will face a massive challenge from Ja’Marr Chase on Sunday. The 49ers are utilizing the seventh-highest rate of Cover 3 and fourth-highest of Cover 4. They are providing 35.0 FPG to WRs (15th-most) and 1.75 RZ touches/game (11th-most). During his rookie season, Chase has created 0.45 FP/Rt (12th-most), 2.58 YPRR (10th-most), and 12.5 YPT (sixth-most) against Cover 3. And he’s posted 0.41 FP/Rt (23rd-most) with a 26% target share (eighth-highest) when opponents put a Cover 4 on the field. Lenoir’s deep allowances stand to provide Chase with a massive opportunity to put together another massive line.

Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens

[DK: WR14, FD: WR12]

From Start/Sit:

Since Week 7, Marquise Brown ranks behind only Diontae Johnson in targets per game (12.2) and XFP/G (23.0). Unfortunately, the production hasn’t been there, as he ranks just 22nd in FPG over this span (14.6), but he’s not the one to blame. Over this span, QB Lamar Jackson ranks dead-last in PFF pass grade (43.5).

That’s our concern with Brown this week — that Jackson falls apart, like he did when he last faced the Browns two weeks ago, compiling a distressing 165/1/4 line on 32 pass attempts. This season Jackson has twice as many games with 2 or more interceptions than he does games with 2 or more passing touchdowns. And, well, yeah, that’s bad.

But, still, I think you have little choice but to start Brown this week, who ranks 10th in XFP/G (16.5) and 11th in FPG (16.7) across the full season. At least on paper, the Browns don’t look like a tough matchup for Jackson, ranking 9th-worst in passing fantasy points allowed per pass attempt (0.48). And though he struggled against them in Week 12, he’s thrown for 3 or more touchdowns in 3 of their last 5 meetings. But it’s undeniably a terrific matchup for Brown (if Jackson can at least play somewhat competently), as Cleveland ranks 4th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing WR1s (+3.4).

Jarvis Landry, WR, Cleveland Browns

[DK: WR25, FD: WR23]

Earlier in the week, I was a little torn between Jarvis Landry and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

Landry has been dealing with a knee injury suffered in Week 11, but should be a bit healthier following the team’s Week 13 bye. And same for Baker Mayfield, who is dealing with a laundry list of injuries: separated left shoulder, bruised heel, and a bone bruise to his knee.

Since Week 7, opposing WR1s are averaging an astounding 111.3 YPG and 24.0 DK FPG against Baltimore. The team lost CB Marcus Peters in training camp and now CB Marlon Humphrey in Week 13. And they have 2 other CBs listed on the injury report as Questionable. CB Tavon Young (fully healthy) has been excellent in the slot; Baltimore is giving up the 5th-fewest FPG to opposing slot WRs (10.5), but they rank bottom-3 to outside WRs (23.6), and, with Humphrey out, they’re easily now the No. 1 matchup for any outside WR.

Landry has run 61% of his routes from the slot since the Odell Beckham Jr. trade. He averages 7.7 targets and 15.5 FPG in his last 10 healthy games without OBJ. In his last game (which actually came against Baltimore), he gained a season-high 111 yards on a season-high 10 targets.

DPJ gained only 10 yards on 5 targets in this contest. But he averaged 4.8 targets and 14.3 FPG across his prior 4 games. On paper, he no doubt has the more advantageous matchup this week, but he feels a lot harder to trust than Landry.

And, as usual, I’ll let Wes Huber be the tie-breaker. And in this case, it’s an easy one to break. He loves the coverage shell matchup for Landry, and thinks he’s a great play, far better than DPJ.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos

[DK: WR23, FD: WR25]

I was ready to run victory laps on Jeudy in Week 1, prior to his ankle injury. He caught 7 of 6 targets for 72 yards in just one half of football. But he hasn’t given us much of anything since. Though, I suppose, he is fresh off of a season-high 77 receiving yards. He’s also cheap. And Wes Huber thinks Jeudy’s matchup couldn’t be more ideal.

That said, Vegas and I both expect Denver to win in a landslide. And Denver ranks bottom-5 in pace and bottom-5 in pass-rate when leading. So, the play feels very thin. Still, he’s a slight value, and an even stronger contrarian GPP play, given the matchup.

From Wes Huber’s Advanced Matchups:

Even facing off with one of the hottest defenses in the league during the last six weeks, Jeudy’s 4-77-0 line on six targets represents his potential against Cover 2. During his career, Jeudy has manufactured 0.52 FP/Rt (third-most), 2.88 YPRR (the most), 14.0 YPT (sixth-most), and a 115.1 TPR (23rd-highest) across from Cover 2. In addition, on 17% of career routes, Jeudy has generated 25% of his receptions, 27% of his yardage, and 33% of his TDs when a Cover 2 is called to defend him.

The Lions are using the fifth-highest rate of Cover 2. And Detroit will ask C.J. Moore and his 22 snaps in coverage the last two seasons to try to slow Jeudy down. The Lions are presenting wideouts with 1.92 RZ touches/game (fourth-most) and 36.0 FPG over the last four weeks (10th-most). If Teddy Bridgewater takes a moment to realize the nuclear opportunity Jeudy returns from this stylistic matchup, we could get big numbers in return for his WR31/WR32 pricing.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team

[DK: WR7, FD: WR11]

Dallas is giving up the 5th-most FPG to outside WRs (23.5), and CB Trevon Diggs hasn’t shadowed since Week 5. McLaurin averages 10.0 targets and 18.5 FPG in 3 career games against Dallas. He’s far from a value, but he’s a fine high-risk/high-reward GPP-play. He averages 29.1 DK FPG in his 4 best games, but just 8.5 DK FPG the rest of the time.

From Wes Huber’s Advanced Matchups:

As difficult as it may be to believe for some, from a scouting perspective, Heinicke has been playing at a top-five QB level extending quite a bit beyond Washington’s current four-game winning streak….

Between attacking the Raiders’ run defense as the primary goal, the massive rate of Cover 3 from Las Vegas, Casey Hayward Jr.’s elite coverage, and Washington attempting to grind out the clock after taking a 14-6 fourth quarter lead, the 5.2/3.7 FPs scored by Terry McLaurin last week can be understood. The Football Team has actually worked against two of the top-three Cover 3 rates in consecutive weeks. But they will be in for a scheme-treat in Week 14. Dallas is using the highest rate of Cover 1 this season. The last time we saw WFT opposed by a top-five rate of Cover 1, F1 McLaurin registered a 5/103/1 line on seven targets for 24.3/18.8 FPs at Carolina in Week 11.

Poor QB play the last two seasons kept McLaurin from breaching the top-20, but he still managed 0.46 FP/Rt (23rd-most among 110 qualified WRs) and reached the end zone for 50% of his total TDs on only 25% of routes against Cover 1 over his 41-game career. Anthony Brown will draw the challenge of containing Terry McScorin. As the 10th-most targeted outside corner, Brown is relinquishing 1.42 YPCS (16th-most), 0.29 FP/CS (25th-most), 0.19 AY/CS (19th-most), and an 81.0 TPR (26th-best – another anomaly) to his coverage responsibilities.

The ‘Boys are responsible for distributing 37.1 FPG to WRs (eighth-most), 261.4 passing YPG (fifth-most), 7.18 YPA (ninth-most), an 18.7% completion rate on 20-plus throws (second-highest), and a 3.73% completion rate on 40-plus throws (fourth-highest). I have a massive exposure percentage dedicated to McLaurin on both platforms for all of these reasons.

Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets

[DK: WR18, FD: WR25]

Moore is dealing with a hip injury and hasn’t practiced all week. Even if he’s banged up, he’s still a great play if he’s active. If not, Jamison Crowder would be the pivot.

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

Elijah Moore ranks 2nd among all WRs in fantasy points scored since Week 9. Keep in mind, he’s accomplished this feat while catching passes from Mike White, Josh Johnson, Joe Flacco, and Zach Wilson. He ranks as PFF’s 4th-highest graded WR since Week 8 (83.2), and ranks top-6 in separation rate across the full season.

And his Week 13 performance was his most encouraging yet, earning 12 targets (32%), 187 air yards, 2 end zone targets, 4 deep targets, and 1 carry. He scored 20.6 fantasy points, his third performance with 20-plus fantasy points in 5 games, but saw a season-high in XFP (28.4). That ranked most among all WRs on the week, and was 71% more than his prior season-high. And those 187 air yards were also 48% more than his prior-high. So, although he’s been performing like a fantasy WR1 for quite a while now, this was the first week he’s actually seen WR1-levels of volume.

Obviously, QB-play is still a massive concern. Zach Wilson ranks dead-last of 31-qualifying QBs in PFF pass grade. But the good news is, any upsurge in volume should go a long way in helping to negate that deleterious effect.

Corey Davis will be out for the remainder of the season, and Moore draws an attractive on-paper matchup this week. The Saints rank 5th-worst in FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs, and the Jets will likely need to throw as 5.5-point underdogs. QB concerns make Moore too risky of a play for cash, but it’s hard not to love the ceiling in tournaments, especially given his price of WR18 on DraftKings and WR26 on Fanduel.

Laquon Treadwell, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

[DK: WR64, FD: WR57]

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

Treadwell obviously isn’t a player I want to target in a given week, but with his current role and salary, he does appear to be a value headed into Week 14. Over the last three games, Treadwell ranks 2nd on the team in targets per game (5.3), routes per game (29.0), FPG (7.2), and 1st in receiving yards per game (42.0).

Is that an incredibly valuable role? No, not at all. But, as punt plays at WR go, Treadwell is one of the few who offer a guaranteed full-time role and a decent target floor (5 or more targets in each of the last 2 weeks), thus securing his value in a price range that’s devoid of consistency.

Jacksonville is a 9.0-point underdog this week — the 2nd-largest spread of the main slate — meaning the Jaguars will almost certainly need to air the ball out to have a chance. And the matchup is certainly favorable, with Tennessee allowing the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+6.7) to opposing WRs this season.

It’s understandable to have trepidation with plays like this, but if you are looking to punt WR this week, Treadwell is arguably your best bet on DraftKings.

Other / Notes

The Bengals are giving up a league-high 26.8 FPG to opposing outside WRs (26.8), and the 3rd-most YPG to opposing WRs on deep passes (70.7)… WR Deebo Samuel averaged 9.6 targets and 20.2 receiving FPG across his first 9 games. He averages 6.3 carries and 14.0 receiving FPG over his last 3 games. So, yeah, with RB Elijah Mitchell out, he's absolutely a terrific play if he suits up. Maybe one of the best plays of the slate relative to ownership… If he’s out, WR Brandon Aiyuk is again a very enticing value.

From last week’s article: “Since being let out of the doghouse in Week 8, Aiyuk has seen at least 7 targets in 4 of his last 5 games. And he’s hit at least 85 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games, averaging 15.1 FPG over this span (16th-most)… Aiyuk averages a whopping 11.3 targets and 21.6 FPG (low of 19.7) in his last 4 healthy games with Samuel out. (Though, granted, George Kittle only played in one of these games.).”… Obviously, he flopped last week, catching 3 of 6 targets for 55 yards, while George Kittle went nuclear (39.6 fantasy points, 12 targets). But, as we outlined in that article, it was a bottom-3 matchup for Aiyuk, and a top-3 matchup for Kittle. This week it’d be top-3 for Aiyuk, and an only neutral matchup for Kittle. He’s a great play if Samuel is out, but I won’t have much (if any) exposure if Samuel suits up.

Amari Cooper is no doubt mispriced, but I still think I prefer paying up for CeeDee Lamb… Lamb has led Dallas’ WRs in XFP in 9 of his 10 healthy games this year, averaging 17.6 XFP/G. That ranks 8th-most among WRs, sandwiched in between Justin Jefferson (18.4) and Stefon Diggs (16.7). Cooper ranks 21st (12.3)… Washington is giving up the 4th-most FPG to slot WRs (15.6), and the 8th-most FPG to outside WRs (22.7). But they’ve stepped up their game on the perimeter in recent weeks (while still struggling on the interior, giving up big games to Hunter Renfrow and Tyler Lockett in recent weeks). William Jackson III in particular (who Cooper will spend 40% of his day against) is finally living up to the salary he earned this offseason, ranking top-10 in PFF coverage grade since the team’s bye. Lamb, meanwhile, in the slot, will get Danny Johnson, an inexperienced 2018 UDFA.

Jameson Crowder ($4,700) is interesting, especially if WR Elijah Moore can’t suit up (with Corey Davis also out). He’s seen 6 or more targets in 7 of 9 games. And he’s been Zach Wilson’s most targeted receiver in games active, tied with Moore at a 17% target share. New Orleans ranks 7th-worst in FPG to slot WRs (14.6). But all of this being said, Wes Huber vehemently disagrees.

I think WR Breshad Perriman is a terrific GPP punt. He ran a route on 90% of the team’s dropbacks last week. The matchup is tough on paper, though not as tough now with CB Tre’Davious White out. He’s just $3,000 on DraftKings… Tampa Bay has a 28.5-point implied total, and he just needs to catch one deep ball to smash value.

I think WR DeAndre Carter is a viable punt. He averages 4.2 targets, 0.6 carries, and 9.8 FPG over Washington's last 5 games. Wes Huber really likes his coverage shell matchup.

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

[DK: TE4, FD: TE3]

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

Through 6 full games, Rob Gronkowski averages 8.0 targets per game, 14.0 XFP/G, 72.7 YPG, and 18.8 FPG. Among all TEs, those numbers rank 4th, 4th, 1st, and 1st (22% more FPG than next-closest, Travis Kelce). Heck, among WRs, he ranks 15th in YPG and 7th in FPG… At age 32, Gronkowski has shown no signs of slowing down. He ranks 2nd-best among all TEs in PFF receiving grade, he leads all players at all positions in end zone targets per game (1.14), and he’s eclipsed an 80% route share in each of his last 2 games (up from 59%).

He faces a tough matchup against a Bills’ defense that ranks as the 3rd-toughest for opposing TEs based on schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (-5.0). But I’m not sure that can be considered a significant factor this week, given Tampa Bay’s 28.5 implied team total – the 2nd-highest on the slate. The Buffalo defense ranks as a bottom-3 schedule-adjusted matchup for all non-RB positions, and that’s because they allow just 16.3 PPG (2nd-fewest). But Vegas doesn’t think that’s particularly relevant, given they only shaved 2.9 points off the Bucs’ league-leading average of 31.4 PPG.

And if the Tampa Bay offense is expected to have a similar offensive performance to what we’ve seen throughout the year, then Gronk should have no problem getting close to, or exceeding his season-long averages. And that easily makes him one of the top TE values of the slate as the TE4 (by salary) on DraftKings and the TE3 on Fanduel.

From Wes Huber’s Advanced Matchups:

The Bills are utilizing the fifth-highest rate of Cover 1, finishing with the highest rate in two of the last three.

On 22% of his routes since returning from retirement, Rob Gronkowski has tracked down 29% of his catches, 32% of his yardage, and 53% of his TDs against Cover 1. He’s also creating 0.74 FP/Rt (the most), a 126.8 TPR (fourth-highest), 14.0 AY/Tgt (second-most), 2.52 YPRR (fourth-most), and 9.89 YPT (fourth-most). As the top TE to ever step onto a football field, Gronk has not only built his career around Super Bowl victories, he’s the finest TE example to ever attack Cover 1, and also holds the same title when dismantling Cover 2.

James O’Shaughnessy, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

[DK: TE26, FD: TE32]

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

O’Shaughnessy is filling in for the injured Dan Arnold, and has averaged 5.5 targets per game (15% target share), 29.5 routes per game, 5.6 FPG, and 8.7 XFP per game in Arnold’s absence. Among slate-eligible TEs, those numbers rank 11th-, 9th-, 23rd-, and 11th-best. So, strong volume and usage relative to his price, but subpar raw fantasy production (-3.1 PAR).

Given his career 1.04 YPRR, I’m not sure we can expect O’Shaughnessy to meet, or even exceed his expectation on a weekly basis. But he’s a solid punt option given he’s locked into a full-time role, and should see top-12 volume among slate-eligible TEs, despite being priced as the TE26.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

[DK: TE1, FD: TE1]

From Jake Tribbey’s Early Look:

Kelce hasn’t exceeded 20.0 fantasy points since Week 2, but a ceiling performance is certainly possible this week as the Raiders are an outstanding matchup for opposing TEs.

Las Vegas has allowed 17.0 FPG to opposing TEs (2nd-most) and the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (+3.3). They have also been a tough matchup on deep balls for opposing WRs, allowing the 7th-fewest YPG (30.9) on passes down the field. That suggests, at least to me, that Las Vegas will do everything they can to prevent Tyreek Hill from beating them over the top — opening the door for Kelce to feast underneath.

And that is what we saw the last time these teams met, as Kelce earned a season-high 119 receiving yards on the back of 10 targets, scoring 19.9 fantasy points.

We can’t forget we are dealing with one of the best fantasy TEs of all time. Kelce has averaged 19.7 DraftKings FPG in his last 27 regular season games, a mark that’s 20% better than the TE2 on the season (Rob Gronkowski) and would rank 3rd-best among slate-eligible WRs. And if we did consider Kelce a WR, he’d only be the WR5 (by salary) on DraftKings and the WR7 on FanDuel.

Kelce is a strong play on both sites, but I’ll have the majority of my exposure on FanDuel, where it’s typically more worthwhile to pay up for TE.

Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills

[DK: TE9, FD: TE7]

From Start/Sit:

A few weeks back we talked about how Knox was looking eerily similar to 2020 Robert Tonyan. At that point, Knox ranked 7th among all TEs in FPG (11.8), despite averaging just 4.0 targets per game (24th). Like Tonyan, he was obscenely efficient, averaging 2.94 fantasy points per target, an all-time great mark.

This made me nervous, anticipating a heavy regression to the mean. And though that’s come — he’s fallen short of his volume-based expectation by 3.0 or more points in three of his last four games — he’s helped to offset the impact with a massive increase in volume. He averages 12.8 XFP/G over the last 3 weeks (5th-most), and has seen his route share jump from 70% to 90%.

This newfound surge in volume has left me far more bullish on Knox’s prospects of returning mid-range TE1 production throughout the remainder of the season (he currently ranks 7th in FPG with 12.0). And, in any case, he’s clearly a mid-range TE1 this week. This game offers a massive 53.5-point over/under, and Tampa Bay is especially vulnerable to TEs, ranking 9th-worst in FPG allowed (14.6).

Gerald Everett, TE, Seattle Seahawks

[DK: TE15, FD: TE20]

From Start/Sit:

Since the team’s Week 9 bye, Everett is just one target off of D.K Metcalf for the team-high, and he’s averaging 12.7 XFP/G over this span, which ranks 5th-most among TEs. He’s been modestly productive, averaging 10.1 FPG over this stretch, which ranks 10th-most at the position, though that’s also +3.6 FPG more than D.K. Metcalf. He gets a favorable matchup this week, against a Texans defense that ranks 5th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing TEs (+3.3). I’m viewing him as a fringe TE1 this week

Other / Notes

Johnny said it best on the livestream. Austin Hooper “is just a slam-dunk play.” He’s locked into 100% of the team’s snaps with TE David Njoku and TE Harrison Bryant out. The Ravens rank 3rd-worst in FPG allowed to opposing TEs (16.1), and 5th-worst in funnel% (26.9%)…. He’s arguably the best value at the position, though he’s also easily fadeable if chalky. In Cleveland’s last game (against this same Baltimore defense), Hooper played on 90% of the team’s snaps and scored zero fantasy points on 3 targets.

Our projections love Mark Andrews, and so does Wes Huber (here). Over their last 5 games, against the Steelers, Bengals, Patriots, Lions, and Ravens, the Browns have given up 16.8 FPG to opposing TEs. Andrews tagged them for 16.5 fantasy points in Week 12, catching 4 of 10 targets for 65 yards and a score. Like Marquise Brown, he’s seen terrific volume in recent weeks, but Andrews has been a little more consistent. He averages 9.4 targets per game over his last 5 (low of 8). And he’s averaged 62.8 YPG (low of 50) and 14.8 FPG over his last 4. And he historically dominates Cleveland’s Cover-3 shell, which they roll out at the 5th-highest rate.

You can go back to the well on Foster Moreau, but it’s thin. Without Waller in Week 7, he earned an 86% route share, scoring 18.0 fantasy points on 6 targets. Last week that fell to 62%, scoring 4.4 fantasy points on 3 targets. He gets a fringe-top-10 matchup on paper.

In 4 full games, Ricky Seals-Jones is averaging 7.0 targets, 12.6 XFP, 56.8 YPG (including plays negated due to penalty), and 9.8 FPG on 100% of the team’s snaps. Among all slate-eligible and active TEs, those numbers rank: 4th, 4th, 6th, 9th, and best. He’s just the 13th (DK) and 32nd (FD) highest-priced TE of the slate.

Jared Cook ($3,200) is a terrific punt on DraftKings. He ranks 20th in salary, but 12th in XFP/G (8.6) and 14th in FPG (7.8). Obviously, we should expect a little more this week with Keenan Allen out.

Brevin Jordan is in play as a punt ($2,500), though I’m not quite as bullish as I was last week. He ran a route on only 40% of the team’s dropbacks last week, behind Pharaoh Brown.

If Deebo Samuel is out, George Kittle is very much in play. But I expect Samuel to suit up. If I’m wrong, I’ll break this down in more detail in the Sunday Update.

Quarterbacks

For cash, I’m playing Taysom Hill on DraftKings, and Patrick Mahomes on FanDuel.

On both sites, Patrick Mahomes is my top-QB play for tournaments. Dak Prescott would be a distant second. And then Justin Herbert behind him.

After that? As always, get weird, get creative, have fun. The QB position is always more about the stack (and the leverage you’ll gain if that stack hits) than the individual QB play itself.

The Broncos have the 3rd-highest implied point total of the slate (26.5). Detroit ranks 2nd-worst in passing fantasy points allowed per pass attempt (0.52). They only have (no hyperbole) 4 starters healthy on defense. So, why not Teddy Bridgewater to Jerry Jeudy at 0% ownership? Sounds good. (I really like this one.)

Or, a similar argument for Ryan Tannehill to Julio Jones against the Jaguars? Okay. Cam Newton naked or clothed? Sure, either one works. Lamar Jackson at historically low ownership levels and all he needs is one 70-yard rushing touchdown to smash? Why not? Etc. (You get the idea.)

Taysom Hill, QB, New Orleans Saints

[DK: QB13, FD: QB7]

Hill is an easy lock-button play for DraftKings cash. Wes Huber (here) and Jake Tribbey (here) are both in full agreement.

From Start/Sit:

Hill threw 4 interceptions last week. He’s been dealing with a partial tear of the plantar fascia (foot) for several weeks now, which is supposedly a more painful injury than if it were fully torn. And as of last week, he is also dealing with “Mallet Finger” on his throwing hand, the same injury that kept Russell Wilson off the field for three games, and still seemed to be affecting him for several weeks after.

And still, you’re starting him this week as a low-end QB1.

In spite of these ailments, last week, Hill managed to throw for 264 yards (2 touchdowns) while adding 101 yards rushing on the ground. Through 5 career QB starts, Hill averages 22.2 FPG (low of 18.5), which would rank 6th-most among all QBs this season. Although the risk of Hill getting benched (should he struggle) seems massive, he otherwise boasts one of the highest floors in fantasy, averaging 77.5 rushing YPG, 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game, and 13.8 rushing FPG in his 5 career starts.

And this week’s matchup is excellent. The Jets have given up the 4th-most passing FPG to opposing QBs (17.3), while also ranking 3rd-worst in passing fantasy points allowed per pass attempt (0.52). They rank 4th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing QBs (+2.4), though Hill’s Week 13 opponent (the Cowboys) ranked top-10 by the same stat (and 3rd-best in opposing passer rating). The Jets have allowed an opposing QB to reach 18.5 fantasy points against them in 8 of their last 9 games (20.4 FPG), though only one of these QBs ranks top-10 in fantasy points scored.

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

[DK: QB6, FD: QB5]

From Jake Tribbey’s Early Look:

Prescott has had quite a bit of volatility in his fantasy performances over the last 4 weeks, averaging 25.8 FPG in his best 2 games, but just 6.9 FPG in his other 2 games.

Granted, it’s certainly worth noting that Prescott has only had his top 3 WRs at full health in Week 1 (where he scored 27.4 fantasy points) and Week 10 (26.3), so we only have a minuscule, but quite impressive sample of how Prescott performs when this offense is at full strength.

Thankfully for Dak, his 3 top options should all be healthy heading into Week 14, and the offense draws a spectacular matchup against Washington. No defense has been more favorable to opposing QBs, allowing 24.2 FPG (most), and +4.9 schedule-adjusted FPG (most) this season. The Football Team also ranks 3rd-worst in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA (27.6%) and 8th-worst in PFF coverage grades (50.5). This is easily one of the most exploitable pass defenses in the NFL. And teams know that, which has led to the Washington defense facing the highest pass rate over expectation (+6.6%) this season.

Dallas enters this game with an implied team total of 27.0 points, and Dak has averaged 25.0 DraftKings FPG and 23.8 FanDuel FPG when the Cowboys team total is 26.0 points or more over the last 3 seasons (25 instances).

And he’s available at a relative discount, clocking in at his cheapest price on DraftKings since Week 4, and his cheapest price on FanDuel since Week 10.

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

[DK: QB15, FD: QB9]

Newton isn’t a top play, but he’s fine for tournaments as leverage off of Hill.

From Start/Sit, courtesy of Graham Barfield:

I know, I know. Cam was awful his last time out against the Dolphins as the Panthers offense collapsed. HC Matt Rhule was so furious after the game that he ended up firing OC Joe Brady in the lead up to Week 14 and made it clear that the two had philosophical differences offensively. Rhule, once again, reiterated that he wants to run the ball way more – and I absolutely think that Cam is going to be a huge part of that. Cam ran it 10 times for 46 yards and a score back in his first start of the year in Week 11, but the Panthers got away from that the following week as Cam ran for just 5 yards. Well, this is an ideal get right spot for Cam and the Panthers run game as a whole against this Falcons defense that has struggled against mobile QBs all year. Jalen Hurts (7/62), Daniel Jones (8/39), Taylor Heinicke (5/43), Sam Darnold (8/66), and Trevor Lawrence (5/39) have all had solid days on the ground against Atlanta. Cam is obviously not without risk, but he simultaneously carries the highest ceiling among streamers on this slate. And in must-win weeks like this, you’re shooting for the most upside possible.