Brett Whitefield's 2024 NFL Mock Draft 4.0


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Brett Whitefield's 2024 NFL Mock Draft 4.0

The 2024 NFL Draft is here! The buildup to this year’s draft seems crazier than any other I can remember. Uncertainty at the top, plus an offense-dominated group, leaves the door open for endless possibilities — and is exciting for fantasy.

I have watched all the tape for over 200 prospects and have scored about 190 of them. That also means the Fantasy Points Prospect Guide is live, and you can check out skill-player write-ups for free right now. Offensive linemen and defensive players will continue to be added through tomorrow night.

Overall, this is a really good draft class at the top. I have 23 first-round grades (as of now), which is a personal record in my nine years of scoring prospects. While watching each prospect, my gut all along was that this class was very top-heavy and then fell off a cliff somewhere in the second round (minus extremely deep classes like WR and IOL).

I think, more than ever, top 50 picks in this class are uber valuable — for instance, the 27th-best player in the class is pretty similar to the 48th-best player in the class.

This fourth and final mock is meant to be predictive—what I think could happen rather than what I would do. However, please note that I took some pretty fun trade liberties (all relatively plausible) here to keep my mock fresh and unique. So, while I am calling it “predictive,” I also had some fun with it. Keep that in mind when you go, “no way!

To make these selections, I have carefully considered each team's needs, evaluated the positional value of available prospects, and weighed each player's talent against the specific fit for each team. Considering these factors, I have compiled a mock draft reflecting my evaluation and vision for the 2024 NFL Draft.

Remember, my big board ranking is completely team-agnostic. If I were to do a big board for each individual team, they would look drastically different from each other. Let's get started!

Check our Brett’s Mock Draft 1.0, Mock Draft 2.0, and Mock Draft 3.0. The first two have a “what Brett would do” theme.

The 2024 NFL Mock Draft 4.0

1) Chicago Bears (VIA CAR): Caleb Williams, QB, USC (Big Board: 3)

This has been set in stone for quite a while at this point. The Bears land the freakishly talented Williams, who may become the franchise QB they’ve virtually never had in the Super Bowl era.

2) Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU (Big Board: 6)

There are a lot of social media rumors suggesting Daniels would prefer to play elsewhere, but every person I talk to who is in the know seems to think this is the direction. I concede my opinion and side with consensus on this one. The Commanders get their new QB1 in Daniels, whose rushing upside should be accentuated nicely by OC Kliff Kingsbury.

3) New York Giants: JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan (Big Board: 1)

Trade Alert!

Giants get: 2024 1st-round pick (#3)

Patriots get: 2024 1st-round pick (#6), 2024 3rd-round pick (#70), 2025 2nd-round pick

The Giants did a lot of work on McCarthy, and JJ seems to think that means he's going to end up in New York. That is good enough for me. The Giants land the best QB in the draft and have Daniel Jones in place to serve as a meat shield for now.

4) Minnesota Vikings: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina (Big Board: 19)

Trade Alert!

Vikings get: 2024 1st-round pick (#4 via ARI)

Cardinals get: 2024 1st-round pick (#11 via MIN), 2024 1-round pick (#23 via MIN), 2025 4th-round pick

The four-QB start to the draft happens here in this mock. In reality, I am unsure there will need to be so much jostling in order to get these QBs into these landing spots. Perhaps the Giants can sit back and take JJ at 6 and Vikings with Maye at 11. That seems risky, though, so I have them going to get their guys.

5) Indianapolis Colts: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (Big Board: 2)

Trade Alert!

Colts get: 2024 1st-round pick (#5 via LAC)

Chargers get: 2024 1st-round pick (#15), 2024 3rd-round pick (#86), 2025 1st-round pick

The city of Indianapolis will be partying in the streets. The Colts come and get the son of one of the best players in their franchise's history. Marvin Harrison Sr. is a Colts Ring of Honor member. This pairing just makes too much sense from a dot-connecting standpoint and from what it means for young Anthony Richardson, who now has an excellent stable of diverse skill sets at WR ready to rock. You know Colts owner Jim Irsay has asked GM Chris Ballard if he can make this happen.

6) New England Patriots: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame (Big Board: 5)

Trade Alert!

Patriots get: 2024 1st-round pick (#6), 2024 3rd-round pick (#70), 2025 2nd-round pick

Giants get: 2024 1st-round pick (#3)

The Patriots find a minor trade back and still fill the biggest hole on their roster with Alt. It’s a win/win situation and a great start for the new regime. They likely have a bottom-5 roster in football and will have an opportunity to grab a QB next year when the roster is a little further along.

7) Arizona Cardinals: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (Big Board: 4)

Trade Alert!

Cardinals get: 2024 1st-round pick (#7 via TEN)

Titans get: 2024 1st-round pick (#11 via MIN), 2024 3rd-round pick (#90), 2024 5th-round pick (#162)

The Cardinals pull off the double trade for the second year in a row. After moving back to pick 11, the Cardinals don’t want to miss the boat on elite WR options and come back here to take Odunze. Coincidentally, my comp for Odunze is Larry Fitzgerald. This would just make too much sense.

8) Atlanta Falcons: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA (Big Board: 8)

With all the action in front of them, the Falcons miss the boat on a trade back but should be content taking the best defensive player in the draft. There might be medical concerns here with Latu, but with the addition of Kirk Cousins at QB, the Falcons have pushed their chips to the center in a win-now approach. With that in mind, it is reasonable to assume the Falcons will look past those concerns in order to land a player of Latu’s caliber.

9) Chicago Bears: Byron Murphy II, DL, Texas (Big Board: 19)

The Bears continue building their defensive line with this pick. Murphy is tailor-made for the Matt Eberflus defense.

10) New York Jets: Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington (Big Board: 7)

The Jets’ season is arguably one OL injury away from the whole thing going down in flames. Fautanu gives them great depth as a guy who can likely back up at four spots, with the potential to be the long-term solution at LT. Fautanu is not the sexy pick here, but the necessary one. This is also a potential Brock Bowers spot — whether to the Jets or to a team that trades up.

11) Tennessee Titans: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (Big Board: 11)

Trade Alert!

Titans get: 2024 1st-round pick (#11 via MIN), 2024 3rd-round pick (#90), 2024 5th-round pick (#162)

Cardinals get: 2024 1st-round pick (#7 via TEN)

The Titans expertly maneuver the board after getting sniped on Joe Alt. The trio of DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and Nabers gives QB Will Levis a fighting chance at success.

12) Denver Broncos: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State (Big Board: 16)

Honestly, this is a total guess. We have heard teams are going to go crazy for the offensive tackles early, so I am thinking this could be a surprise spot. It’s also entirely possible the Broncos trade back for someone like Bo Nix while another team moves up for Fashanu.

13) Las Vegas Raiders: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington (Big Board: 24)

The 5th QB in the top 13! Penix is getting gassed up in a lot of insider reports this week, and the Raiders land a player they’ve been linked to since February.

14) New Orleans Saints: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State (Big Board: 15)

Fuaga is an insanely gifted offensive line prospect whom I prefer trying out at offensive tackle before sliding him into guard. Fuaga provides some flexibility to the Saints, who have multiple needs on their line. They can do what they see fit to ensure they get their best five on the field.

15) Los Angeles Chargers: JC Latham, OT, Alabama (Big Board: 13)

Trade Alert!

Chargers get: 2024 1st-round pick (#15), 2024 3rd-round pick (#86), 2025 1st-round pick

Colts get: 2024 1st-round pick (#5 via LAC)

The tradeback pays dividends, as the Chargers pick up multiple valuable assets and get a player at a position they were considering at #5 anyway. Latham slides in at RT and provides that nasty edge new HC Jim Harbaugh is going to want to implement across the board.

16) Philadelphia Eagles: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo (Big Board: 17)

Trade Alert!

Eagles get: 2024 1st-round pick (#16)

Seahawks get: 2024 1st-round pick (#22), 2025 3rd-round pick

Defensive players are coming off the board slowly, as QB and OL-needy teams are desperate to get ahead of their counterparts. That’s just fine for Howie Roseman, who takes advantage to attack his biggest need with the best player at the position in this draft. It’s a huge win for the Eagles here.

17) Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU (Big Board: 21)

Thomas Jr. is exactly the type of traits-y prospect GM Trent Baalke is drawn to. He would round out what would easily be the best WR trio Trevor Lawrence has gotten to play with, and he helps soften the sting of losing Calvin Ridley to a division rival. I love the idea of loading up on skill players for the former #1 overall pick.

18) Cincinnati Bengals: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia (Big Board: 18)

Bowers is likely destined to go earlier, but it is very hard to predict landing spots for players at non-premium positions. He is an elite TE prospect, though, and instantly gives any offense some added fuel. With Tee Higgins essentially on a one-year deal, I liked the idea of adding a pass-catcher for Joe Burrow.

19) Los Angeles Rams: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama (Big Board: 9)

The Rams have been linked to this EDGE class through the whole process. Looking back on the way mocks were going even a week ago, it's crazy to fathom Turner falling to number 19, but this class is loaded offensively. Turner is also a better fit for this defense than Latu or Jared Verse.

20) Pittsburgh Steelers: Graham Barton, IOL, Duke (Big Board: 26)

The Steelers are one of the easier teams to predict in this exercise. They appear to be locked in on OL and have paid much attention to Barton.

21) Miami Dolphins: Jer’Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois (Big Board: 10)

The departure of Christian Wilkins has left a giant hole on the Dolphins DL. Newton steps in and brings an elite pass-rushing arsenal to the table. I am a little concerned medicals might knock Newton out of the first round, but he fills a massive need for Miami.

22) Seattle Seahawks: Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon (Big Board: 29)

Trade Alert!

Seahawks get: 2024 1st-round pick (#22), 2025 3rd-round pick

Eagles get: 2024 1st-round pick (#16)

With Fautanu and Fuaga off the board, the Seahawks did the smart thing and traded back, still managing to fill their biggest need. JPJ would be an upgrade at center or left guard.

23) Arizona Cardinals: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama (Big Board: 22):

Trade Alert!

Cardinals get: 2024 1st-round pick (#11 via MIN), 2024 1-round pick (#23 via MIN), 2025 4th-round pick

Vikings get: 2024 1st-round pick (#4)

The Cardinals had arguably the worst CB room in the NFL last year and haven’t done much to improve it this offseason. Arnold definitely fits as an outside CB in the Jonathon Gannon scheme but could also thrive at nickel.

24) Dallas Cowboys: Payton Wilson, LB, North Carolina State (Big Board: 36)

I know offensive line is the conventional wisdom here, but In terms of face-to-face meetings, the Cowboys have done the most work on the RB and LB classes. They have other bigger needs elsewhere, but Wilson just feels like a typical Jerry pick. I could also see them going with one of the Texas WRs or completely shocking the world by going with Jonathon Brooks.

25) Green Bay Packers: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia (Big Board: 31)

The Packers have had such steady offensive line play for the better part of a decade. That requires constant investment upfront, and while they have done a good job hitting in the early mid-rounds, Mims is the type of toolsy guy they would love to mold.

26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State (Big Board: 14)

Verse replaces Shaq Barrett as an undersized speed-to-power specialist. He instantly upgrades a pass rush that had long bouts of inconsistency last year.

27) New England Patriots (VIA ARZ VIA HOU): Bo Nix, QB, Oregon (Big Board: 27)

Trade Alert!

Patriots get: 2024 1st-round pick (#27 via NE)

Cardinals get: 2024 2nd-round pick (#34 via MIN), 2024 4th-round pick (#103)

Another QB off the board? Why not! Nix has New England swagger, and since they were able to attack the other glaring weakness on the roster with Joe Alt, why not take a swing on a QB next?

28) Buffalo Bills: Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina (Big Board: 41)

I have seen a lot of Xavier Worthy talk here, but I just can’t see how he fits with Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel. Legette can come in and play the X while also doing a ton of the dirty work in the offense.

29) Detroit Lions: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa (Big Board: 28)

Detroit would be a prime trade-back candidate if the board fell this way. The team's defensive philosophy is to be a bit zone heavier than their pass rush has allowed them to be. With some upgrades made on the defensive line, DeJean slides in nicely as the Lions work towards a more zone-heavy approach. His positional versatility is also super valuable, as he can play safety as well.

30) Baltimore Ravens: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas (Big Board: 55)

I don’t love Mitchell’s tape but with the abundance of physical traits he has, I can easily see someone pulling the trigger in round 1. Mitchell gives the Ravens a bigger X-type WR to pair with Zay Flowers.

31) San Francisco 49ers: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona (Big Board: 56)

Morgan comes in and likely competes for a starting guard spot on Day 1 and potentially replaces Trent Williams, who has officially crossed into “ancient” territory, in the near future.

32) Kansas City Chiefs: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma (Big Board: 33)

I hate trying to predict the Chiefs at the end of the round. They are likely a trade-back candidate, given they don’t have glaring holes on the roster. I could see them going any number of ways, including DL, CB, or WR.

Brett Whitefield is an experienced professional in football analytics, with more than a decade in the business. He has held several key positions with some of the top companies in the industry, including as a process manager at Pro Football Focus (PFF), where he spent more than seven years. Brett has also worked with and consulted for multiple NFL teams and Power-5 NCAA football programs.