I’m so excited about the Week 5 slate!
This slate is filled with so many incredible matchups including an Alabama-Mississippi game with a total of 79. There are various options at QB on this slate, but should you even risk not having Matt Corral or Bryce Young in your lineup? If you have them in your lineup, then how do you fill out the rest of your lineup with competitive players? I have written this entire article under the assumption we have both expensive QBs in our lineup, and I am still excited about the players available for our lineups at the skill positions. Who are those players?
Come find out…
Against the Spread Picks
Notre Dame (+2.5) vs Cincinnati
Arkansas (+18.5) vs Georgia
Alabama vs Mississippi (Under 79)
TCU vs Texas (Under 66.5)
Matt Corral, Mississippi vs Alabama (DK: $9.2K | FD: $10.5K | O/U: 79.0 | Implied: 32.25)
Matt Corral will be the highest-owned QB on the slate, and rightfully so. He is averaging 46.2 FPG on DK. His passing numbers are crazy (332 YPG and 9 passing TDs) but he is also averaging 53 YPG on the ground with 5 TDs. Alabama’s defense struggled versus Florida QB Emory Jones, who is also a dual-threat, allowing him to run for 76 yards and produce 23.35 FPs despite only throwing for 195 yards. Last year, Corral threw for 365 yards and 2 TDs versus Alabama in a crazy shootout along with 40 yards rushing yards for 29.6 FPs. If he simply produced the same numbers on Saturday then he would hit value at $9.2K. It’s hard to envision a scenario where Corral is not in our lineups in Cash/SE (single-entry) contests.
Nick Saban on Matt Corral: "He played really well against us last year. He's very elusive, can extend plays. He's a very accurate passer. He can make plays with his feet. He's as talented as anyone we've seen, run or pass, in a long time."— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) September 27, 2021
Bryce Young, Alabama vs Mississippi (DK: $10.0K | FD: $11.2K | O/U: 79.0 | Implied: 46.75)
Bryce Young has picked up where Mac Jones left off last year throwing for 281 YPG and 15 TDs over the first four games despite three of those games being blowouts. That will not be the case on Saturday as they will need Young for all four quarters in a game with a total of 79 points. Alabama has the highest team total (46.75) on the main slate by over 10 points. Mississippi is allowing only 9.0 FPG to opposing RBs so this looks like a perfect spot for Young to put up a signature performance for his Heisman campaign. At $10.0K, he is expensive, but I prefer having him in my lineups.
Tanner McKee, Stanford vs Oregon (DK: $6.5K | FD: $9.1K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 25.0)
If you don’t want to put all your chips in the Alabama-Mississippi matchup, which is understandable, Tanner McKee is a very cheap alternative who has put up surprisingly good numbers to start the season. He also happens to be facing the worst defense versus opposing QBs in FPG (27.3) on this slate, Oregon. Since week two, McKee has thrown for at least 218 yards passing and 2 TDs in each game, averaging 25.2 FPG over that span. At $6.5K, it is not hard for McKee to hit value in this contest.
Sam Hartman, Wake Forest vs Louisville (DK: $7.5K | FD: $9.7K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 34.25)
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati vs Notre Dame (DK: $7.5K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 26.25)
Hendon Hooker, Tennessee vs Missouri (DK: $6.8K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 31.25)
Casey Thompson, Texas vs TCU (DK: $8.4K | FD: $10.2K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 35.75)
TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State vs Rutgers (DK: $6.8K | FD: $8.8K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 36.5)
TreVeyon Henderson. Wow. Is it possible for a true freshman to win the Heisman? We might find out this year. He has been a revelation for Ohio State averaging 25.2 FPG and 9.5 YPC. Ohio State HC Ryan Day said this week that Henderson will be getting 20 touches per game moving forward. Rutgers has dramatically improved defensively, but Henderson is already matchup proof in my eyes four games into his true freshman campaign. Similar to Bijan Robinson earlier in the year, DK has not properly adjusted Henderson’s salary yet to match his value. He is a steal at $6.8K and a lock in our lineups.
Ryan Day mentioned he'd like to see freshman running back TreVeyon Henderson "right in the 20-carry range."— Joey Kaufman (@joeyrkaufman) September 28, 2021
Kyren Williams, Notre Dame vs Cincinnati (DK: $5.0K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 24.75)
Kyren Williams is having a rough start to the season on the ground averaging 61 YPG and 3.8 YPC. However, he is making up for it with 38.8 receiving yards per game so he is still putting up 19 FPG. I’m not sure why Williams is only $5.0K as he faces an Cincinnati DEF that is ranked 90th versus opposing RBs in FPG (24.8). Williams is a cheap RB option that will hit value and allow us to spend up on Matt Corral and Bryce Young.
Jabari Small, Tennessee vs Missouri (DK: $4.4K | FD: $6.8K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 31.25)
Jabari Small is a tremendous value on DK this week at $4.4K. Historically, Tennessee HC Josh Heupel loves to split carries evenly between his top RBs and this year has been no different when Tiyon Evans and Jabari Small have been healthy. In week 1, Small had 22 carries, Evans had 16. Last week, each RB had 11 carries. Evans had a long receiving TD last week leading him to be priced almost $2K more this week than Small. This Missouri DEF is one of the worst run defenses in the nation allowing 271 YPG and 39.1 FPG to opposing RBs. At $4.4K, Small needs to be in our lineup with this massive opportunity.
Bijan Robinson, Texas vs TCU (DK: $8.7K | FD: $11.5K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 35.75)
Tyler Badie, Missouri vs Tennessee (DK: $8.2K | FD: $10.3K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 33.75)
Jerome Ford, Cincinnati vs Notre Dame (DK: $6.8K | FD: $8.2K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 26.25)
Zach Evans, TCU vs Texas (DK: $7.4K | FD: $9.8K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 30.75)
Tiyon Evans, Tennessee vs Missouri (DK: $6.2K | FD: $7.1K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 31.25)
Leddie Brown, West Virginia vs Texas Tech (DK: $6.9K | FD: $10.5K | O/U: 56.5 | Implied: 31.75)
Kennedy Brooks, Oklahoma vs Kansas State (DK: $4.2K | FD: $6.8K | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 32.25)
Jaylen Wright, Tennessee vs Missouri (DK: $3.6K | FD: $8.1K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 31.25)
Dontario Drummond, Mississippi vs Alabama (DK: $7.5K | FD: $8.8K | O/U: 79.0 | Implied: 32.25)
Jonathan Mingo, Mississippi vs Alabama (DK: $6.1K | FD: $7.9K | O/U: 79.0 | Implied: 32.25)
Dontario Drummond and Jonathan Mingo are clearly the top two WRs in the Mississippi pass game with target shares of 26.9 and 23.1 respectively. Drummond has at least 8 targets in each game and is averaging 30.5 FPG on 7 catches for 113 YPG along with 5 TDs. He has been incredibly consistent with his lowest scoring output being 24.1 FPs. At $7.5K, it is hard to find room for him in the lineup if you also have Young and Corral.
Jonathan Mingo has actually led the team in targets over the last two weeks and matched Drummond’s output, averaging 28.75 FPG on 6.5 catches for 117.5 with 3 TDs. His salary is only $6.1K and is much easier to fit with Young and Corral.
SEC leaders in receiving yards per game:— John Clay (@johnclayiv) September 23, 2021
Dontario Drummond, Ole Miss 113.0
Wan'Dale Robinson, Kentucky 112.3
Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss 96.7
Josh Vann, South Carolina 94.0
Makai Polk, Miss State 75.3
Kayshon Boutte, LSU 74.3
Photo @AlexSlitzPhoto #BBN #ukfootball #gamecocks pic.twitter.com/GaBbKdTJ8r
Bo Melton, Rutgers vs Ohio State (DK: $4.9K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 21.5)
Bo Melton is the focal point of the Rutgers passing game with a 30 percent target share and is averaging 9 targets per game along with 16.1 FPG. The Ohio State defense is ranked 86th versus opposing WRs in FPG (24.3) and 102nd in PASS YPG (255.5) so there is a big opportunity for Melton to exceed value in this contest at $4.9K. There are other options in this price range at WR like Marvin Mims or Braylon Sanders, but Melton is the safest to hit value.
Jahleel Billingsley, Alabama vs Mississippi (DK: $3.6K | FD: $6.0K | O/U: 79.0 | Implied: 46.75)
Jahleel Billingsley finally got out of Nick Saban’s doghouse and immediately flashed for Alabama. He had 6 targets for 5 receptions, 105 yards and a TD for 24.5 FPs versus Southern Mississippi last week. The week before he had 9.6 FPs versus Florida. I expect Billingsley to be used to create mismatches versus Mississippi and to be heavily utilized. He is only $3.6K on DK so he will probably have a high ownership with a fantastic opportunity to exceed value.
Jameson Williams, Alabama vs Mississippi (DK: $7.7K | FD: $9.2K | O/U: 79.0 | Implied: 46.75)
John Metchie, Alabama vs Mississippi (DK: $7.1K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 79.0 | Implied: 46.75)
Drake London, USC vs Colorado (DK: $8.5K | FD: NA | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 29.0)
Xavier Worthy, Texas vs TCU (DK: $6.2K | FD: $8.4K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 35.75)
Jaquarii Roberson, Wake Forest vs Louisville (DK: $5.2K | FD: $7.1K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 34.25)
Braylon Sanders, Mississippi vs Alabama (DK: $4.8K | FD: $6.4K | O/U: 79.0 | Implied: 32.25)
Kaylon Geiger, Texas Tech vs West Virginia (DK: $5.8K | FD: $7.6K | O/U: 56.5 | Implied: 24.75)
Marvin Mims, Oklahoma vs Kansas State (DK: $4.8K | FD: $6.9K | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 32.25)
Joshua Moore, Texas vs TCU (DK: $3.8K | FD: $5.7K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 35.75)
JD Spielman, TCU vs Texas (DK: $3.3K | FD: $5.4K | O/U: 65.0 | Implied: 30.75)