CFB DraftKings Cash & Single Entry: December 18

It’s the kickoff of bowl season, and I could not be more excited!

This Saturday slate features some interesting matchups and one potential shootout in Utah State versus Oregon State. We have three good options to choose from at QB in Malik Willis, Jake Haener, and Logan Bonner. Which two should we choose? Is Oregon State RB BJ Baylor the top RB option on the slate? With Chris Smith ruled out, which Louisiana RB do we choose: Montrell Johnson or Emani Bailey? Deven Thompkins is a lock versus Oregon State, but which other two WRs do we choose between Jalen Cropper, Jacob Cowing, and Puka Nacua?

Let’s dig in…

Against the Spread Picks

Liberty (-9.5) vs Eastern Michigan

Fresno State (-11.5) vs UTEP

Louisiana (-5.5) vs Marshall

Total Wagers

Liberty vs Eastern Michigan (Under 59.0)

Fresno State vs UTEP (Over 51.0)

Utah State vs Oregon State (Under 67.5)

Quarterbacks

Malik Willis, Liberty vs Eastern Michigan (DK: $8.7K | FD: $11.3K | O/U: 59.0 | Implied: 34.25)

Malik Willis is looking to end his college football career with a signature performance versus Eastern Michigan. For the year, Willis had 3,446 total yards, including 820 rushing yards, and 35 TDs for 29.4 FPG. The Eagles DEF ranked 45th in QB FPG (20.0) and 75th in PASS YPG (233.4), but did not face many Konami Code QBs like Willis. When they faced Ohio dual-threat QBs, Kurtis Rourke and Armani Rogers, they struggled to contain them. The two QBs combined for 17 carries and 111 rushing yards, totaling 35.1 FPs combined. I expect Willis to have success and hit value versus Eastern Michigan.

Jake Haener, Fresno State vs UTEP (DK: $7.9K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 31.25)

Jake Haener had quite the dramatic start to the month as he entered the transfer portal in early December, with plans to transfer to Washington, before pulling his name out of the portal on December 8th. Haener leads a dynamic Fresno State passing attack, ranked 9th in PASS YPG (330.1) with 32 TDs for 26.0 FPG. Haener faces a UTEP DEF ranked 52nd in QB FPG (20.5) and 29th in PASS YPG (203.4). However, UTEP ranked 123rd in SOS (strength of schedule) so these rankings are a bit inflated for them. For example, they allowed UTSA QB Frank Harris to score 41.9 FPs four weeks ago. I expect Haener to hit value versus UTEP in this contest.

Logan Bonner, Utah State vs Oregon State (DK: $7.7K | FD: $11.0K | O/U: 67.5 | Implied: 30.0)

Logan Bonner has caught fire over these last six weeks for the Utah State Aggies. During that stretch, he has thrown for 1,794 yards and 23 TDs for 29.64 FPs. He is the top QB in FPG over that stretch of games on the slate. With an implied game total of 67.5 points, this is the highest scoring game on the slate by 9 points. The Oregon State DEF is ranked 74th in QB FPG (22.9) and 87th in PASS YPG (241.1). Bonner is my QB lock of the slate.

Alternatives:

Gavin Hardison, UTEP vs Fresno State (DK: $5.6K | FD: $6.3K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 19.75)

Running Backs

BJ Baylor, Oregon State vs Utah State (DK: $6.7K | FD: $8.8K | O/U: 67.5 | Implied: 37.5)

BJ Baylor was one of the best PAC-12 RBs this year, averaging 104.9 YPG and 13 TDs for 19.3 FPG. He was also incredibly consistent, scoring double-digit FPs in 11 of 12 games. With Deshaun Fenwick questionable versus Utah State after sitting out the Beavers’ previous game versus Oregon with an ankle injury, Baylor could be in line for a huge workload. The Utah State DEF is ranked 84th in RB FPG (24.3), 82nd in RUSH YPG (162.6), and 87th in RUSH YPC (4.4). This is one of the most advantageous matchups for any player on the slate.

DeWayne McBride, UAB vs BYU (DK: $4.8K | FD: $7.4K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 24.0)

Jermaine Brown, UAB vs BYU (DK: $4.3K | FD: $5.9K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 24.0)

DeWayne McBride was unstoppable over the last 6 games of the year, scoring 20-plus FPs in every game he was healthy. Unfortunately, he suffered an ankle injury in the first quarter versus UTEP that knocked him out of the game and left him in a walking boot. I watched the ankle injury live, and I’d be shocked if he plays in the bowl game. However, I did want to mention him here, because if he is healthy and plays, he is a lock in our lineup at $4.8K.

Jermaine Brown stepped in for McBride in the UTEP game and scored 30.1 FPs on 101 total yards and 3 TDs. Brown split carries with McBride over the first half of the year and the coaching staff loves him. UAB is a heavy run-first team and that will not change with Brown as the lead back. The BYU DEF is ranked 102nd in RB FPG (26.5), 66th in RUSH YPG (151.58) and 78th in RUSH YPC (4.27). At $4.3K, Brown is one of the better values on the slate.

Emani Bailey, Louisiana vs Marshall (DK: $5.2K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 24.0)

Montrell Johnson, Louisiana vs Marshall (DK: $4.0K | FD: $6.7K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 24.0)

Since Emani Bailey returned from injury three weeks ago, Louisiana has been a three-headed rushing attack led by Chris Smith, Montrell Johnson, and Bailey. However, Smith has been dealing with an injury and has been officially ruled OUT for the bowl game. Over the last three games, Bailey is averaging 13.7 carries for 79.3 yards with 3 TDs for 19.26 FPG. Again, that’s while splitting carries three ways. The Marshall DEF is ranked 88th in RB FPG (25.0) and 105th in RUSH YPG (189.67). Look for Emani Bailey to hit value in this game at $5.2K.

Montrell Johnson is also a solid option on this slate at $4.0K. He struggled these last three weeks with all three RBs healthy. However, week 9 through 11 with only Chris Smith and Johnson healthy, he averaged 14.7 carries for 67.3 yards with 3 TDs for 14.7 FPG. Both RBs are solid options on this slate.

Alternatives:

Rasheen Ali, Marshall vs Louisiana (DK: $7.5K | FD: $9.8K | O/U: 54.5 | Implied: 24.5)

Ronnie Rivers, Fresno State vs UTEP (DK: $6.1K | FD: $9.2K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 31.25)

$4.5K-or-less options:

Lucious Stanley, UAB vs BYU (DK: $3.0K | FD: $4.9K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 24.0)

Receivers

Deven Thompkins, Utah State vs Oregon State (DK: $7.5K | FD: $9.8K | O/U: 67.5 | Implied: 30.0)

Deven Thompkins ended up as the CFF WR3 in all of college football this year with 96 catches, 1,589 yards and 9 TDs for 25.8 FPG. The Oregon State DEF is not very good against the pass. They are ranked 53rd in WR FPG (21.9) and 87th in PASS YPG (241.1). Utah State will be airing it out in this contest and Thompkins will be the top beneficiary. At $7.5K, he is one of the better WR values on the slate.

Jalen Cropper, Fresno State vs UTEP (DK: $7.0K | FD: $9.2K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 31.25)

Jalen Cropper has been inconsistent this year, but still put up 76 receptions, 827 yards and 14 TDs as the WR1 for Fresno State. I’m expecting big things from Cropper versus a UTEP that faced a very soft schedule. When they faced good WRs, the Miners struggled to stop them. Versus Boise State and UTSA, they allowed 34.1 and 33.2 FPs respectively. The Bulldogs will move the ball through the air at will versus UTEP, and Cropper will be the biggest beneficiary.

Jacob Cowing, UTEP vs Fresno State (DK: $6.4K | FD: $8.4.K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 19.75)

Jacob Cowing quietly had one of the best seasons of any WR in college football with 67 receptions for 1,330 yards and 8 TDs for 23.3 FPG. UTEP is an 11.5-point underdog so they are going to have to throw the ball a ton in this contest. Cowing is extremely consistent with a high floor, scoring 18-plus FPs in 9 of 11 games this year. At $6.4K, Cowing is one of the best values on this slate at WR.

Puka Nacua, BYU vs UAB (DK: $4.9K | FD: $7.7K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 30.75)

Puka Nacua has been incredible over the last month of the season. In the last four games, he is averaging 5.5 receptions for 88 YPG with 5 TDs for 24.75 FPs. He is only $4.9K on this slate. The UAB DEF is ranked 84th in WR FPG (25.3) and 53rd in PASS YPG (219.2). The Blazers also allowed 24 PASS TDs on the year, which ranks 97th in the country. I love this matchup and price point for Nacua here.

Alternative:

Derek Wright, Utah State vs San Diego State (DK: $5.7K | FD: $8.2K | O/U: 50.0 | Implied: 22.0)

CJ Daniels, Liberty vs Eastern Michigan (DK: $5.0K | FD: $7.6K | O/U: 59.0 | Implied: 34.25)

Justin Garrett, UTEP vs Fresno State (DK: $4.7K | FD: $6.1K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 19.75)

Trea Shropshire, UAB vs BYU (DK: $4.6K | FD: $6.7K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 24.0)