Week 12 MNF Showdown

General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups

1. Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
2. On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
3. On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
4. Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
5. Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
6. DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
7. When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.

Captain/MVP

Tyler Lockett has the ability for ceiling games, we all know that. He’s had a few slate winning performances on the main slate this year alone. I think he’s in a great spot here against the Eagles’ defense. A note to keep in mind when rotering Lockett at captain is that he often leaves no scraps for his teammates when he goes off. In the games Lockett has had captain worthy performances he has been pretty much the only productive member of the offense outside of Russell Wilson. I like rostering Lockett in the captain spot, and I think a unique idea is to only roster Lockett and Wilson in those lineups and hope that he catches fire like he has earlier this season. Of course, Russell Wilson is also a viable captain because we know Russ can cook. If Russ is captain, like we always say with quarterback captains, he either did a lot with his legs or by spreading the ball around. If we roster Wilson, I like using DK Metcalf and another pass-catcher not named Tyler Lockett. Metcalf leads the Seahawks in target share and air yards share at 24% and 33% respectively. There have been very few instances where Lockett and Metcalf would land in the same optimal lineup given their salaries. It’s smart to not have many lineups with both pass-catchers, though I wouldn’t completely rule it out. Chris Carson is going to make his return against a run-funnel Eagles defense. I think you can take calculated shots with Carson at captain if you think the Seahawks are going to have a big advantage in this game. Carson is solid in the passing game, so you can add Russ to those lineups

The Eagles have been woeful on offense, but the Seahawks may be the elixir that Wentz and crew need to get back on track. Carson Wentz has been brutal to put it lightly, but he does have that little bit of magic that flashes every now and again. A home matchup with Seahawks is a spot that I’ll give him a shot. We are only a month removed from Wentz dropping back-to-back 30 DraftKings point performances on the Giants and Ravens. His weapons are more intact than they’ve been all year, save Ertz. Miles Sanders seems due for a breakout performance as his usage has been solid since his return from injury. He has seen 20 opportunities in two straight games. I like using Sanders and Wentz in lineups, because I think if Sanders gets there he does some on some big passing plays.

Flex

Carlos Hyde and Boston Scott are the cheaper versions of their counterparts and could see significant work. In lineups where Sanders or Carson don’t fit, I like slotting Hyde and Scott in as touchdown vultures with some reception upside. Scott has had a bunch of red-zone usage in place of Sanders and Hyde could potentially be in for more of a split workload than we realize if Carson isn’t fully healthy.

The Eagles’ pass-catchers are a tough group to parse through. Travis Fulgham keeps getting the targets. He saw seven targets last week despite nearly full health for the unit. Jalen Reagor and Fulgham are tied with 26% of the Eagles’ air yards over the last month. Everyone outside of those two and Dallas Goedert hasn’t seen much of a workload outside of a stray target. When I’m building around Eagles receivers it’s going to mainly be the three aforementioned pass-catchers. Greg Ward, Richard Rodgers, and Alshon Jeffrey can be sprinkled in as dart throws in lineups that you need a super cheap option to fill out an otherwise high upside lineup.

The punt options on the Seahawks side of the ball include the ever-popular David Moore. Moore is always a popular play on showdown slates because he has flashed big-play potential and he’s usually fairly cheap. Moore is often overowned so that’s something I would think about before slotting him into your lineup. I would play him with Russ captain lineups or otherwise contrarian builds, but wouldn’t slot him into lineups that are already rostering chalky players. Freddie Swain will be my favorite play from the Seahawks if Moore can’t go (hip), but I think I’ll still have a good bit of him if Moore goes as well because there is a chance he isn’t fully healthy and they share that WR3 role. Swain scored a touchdown for us on a showdown slate earlier this year, so I may be biased, but I think he has a real shot at the bare minimum on DraftKings. Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister at the lone tight ends with Greg Olsen on IR. When Olsen went out last week, it was Hollister who saw three targets to Dissly’s one. I wouldn’t doubt if one of the Seahawks tight ends makes it into the optimal lineup as they are cheap and project well point-per-dollar.

This is a week where I’ll be underweight on each DST as I think both offenses have the advantage. The kickers on the other hand will most likely have plenty of opportunities for field goals.

Lineup Starters

Captain/MVP: Tyler Lockett

Flex: Russell Wilson, Jalen Raegor, Dallas Goedert

Captain/MVP: Russell Wilson

Flex: DK Metcalf, Miles Sanders, Freddie Swain

Captain/MVP: Russell Wilson

Flex: DK Metcalf, Travis Fulgham, Jacob Hollister

Captain/MVP: Carson Wentz

Flex: Dallas Goedert, Boston Scott, Tyler Lockett

Captain/MVP: Miles Sanders

Flex: Carson Wentz, Travis Fulgham, DK Metcalf