Against the Spread Picks
Colorado (+10.5) at USC
Oklahoma State (-11.0) vs. Texas Tech *If Spencer Sanders is cleared
Total Wagers
Maryland at Indiana (Over 63.5)
Pittsburgh at Clemson (Over 55.0)
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson vs. Pittsburgh (DK: $9.0K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 39.5)
I find it rather odd that Vegas is currently implicating this game with a combined total of only 55 points. The Pittsburgh run defense is legitimately one of the best in the country -- perhaps the best, rendering Travis Etienne an easy fade. Without a complimenting ground game, expect Trevor Lawrence of the Kobra Kai … I mean the Clemson Tigers to air it out early, and often. The Panthers’ pass defense isn’t a pushover, but it will be assaulted on a level they’ve yet to face this season.
The Bottom Line: We may actually find ourselves with a slate suited to fading high-priced RBs in favor of a pair of elite QBs with a receiving stack or two. For Lawrence, his best stacking options are Amari Rodgers and/or Cornell Powell. If the score does in fact remain as “close” as the plugged-in insiders are expecting, we could get some fourth quarter action from this insanely talented passing attack.
Justin Fields, Ohio State at Illinois (DK: $9.7K | O/U: 71.5 | Implied: 49.75)
You really can’t say enough about the Indiana Hoosiers. I witnessed Justin Fields make mistakes that I’ve not seen him make at any point with Ohio State or in the games I’ve seen of him playing for Harrison HS. The performance must have the Hoosiers’ confidence at an all-time high, but the Buckeyes likely took that victory as a moral defeat. Well, this is the perfect spot for a get right performance for Fields.
The Bottom Line: Illinois is allowing the fifth-highest completion percentage (71 percent), 18th-highest YPA (8.73), and 32nd-highest pure passing FPG to QBs (19.1). As 28-point road favorites, we always run the risk of Ohio State resting its studs for the fourth quarter. But three frames are more than enough for Fields to completely dismantle the Fighting Illini secondary, releasing all of his pent up frustrations.
Michael Penix Jr., Indiana vs. Maryland (DK: $8.8K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 37.25)
With arguably the hottest WR in college football, Ty Fryfogle, it is no surprise at all to see Michael Penix Jr.’s salary increase by $2.2K since last week. I’m torn right at the moment in deciding between stacking the Hoosiers passing offense, or fading Penix in favor of a Maryland stack with Fryfogle as the run-back. The Terrapins pass defense hasn’t made it look pretty, but they’ve actually been slightly better than average. However, they are permitting 247.0 passing YPG (49th-highest) and their pass rush could be the worst in the nation.
The Bottom Line: I was very surprised that the struggling -- up until last week -- Indiana O-line provided Penix with ample time to work against the Buckeyes’ lethal pass rush last week. Major kudos to Hoosiers’ HC Tom Allen and staff for the masterful game planning. With 64 percent of opportunities passing through the hands of Penix, he should have zero trouble covering value. In fact, deciding on three QBs to analyze proved an unexpected challenge. I fully expect all of Lawrence, Fields, Penix, Kedon Slovis, Sam Noyer, Taulia Tagovailoa, Mac Jones, Matt Corral, and Malik Cunningham to cover their respective floor value. Now those are options, people. However, I would be careful with exposure to any of the sub-$7K QBs. Cade McNamara is likely the most intriguing.
Alternatives:
Malik Cunningham, Louisville at Boston College (DK: $8.5K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 27.0)
Kedon Slovis, USC vs. Colorado (DK: $7.9K | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 37.25)
Sam Noyer, Colorado at USC (DK: $7.7K | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 26.75)
Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland at Indiana (DK: $7.4K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 26.25)
Mac Jones, Alabama vs. Auburn (DK: $8.2K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 43.5)
Matt Corral, Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State (DK: $10.1K | O/U: 69.5 | Implied: 39.5)
Cheap super-flex option:
Terry Wilson, Kentucky at Florida (DK: $4.9K | O/U: 60.5 | Implied: 17.5)
Running Backs
Stevie Scott III, Indiana vs. Maryland (DK: $K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 37.25)
While I may end up fading Michael Penix Jr., I fully plan on maximum exposure to Stevie Scott III. His current salary was constructed around the complete dud of a performance from the OSU game. However, that’s not really a knock on him at all. The Buckeyes are simply one of the top run defenses in the country. This week, Scott will face a Maryland run defense allowing 4.90 YPC (30th-highest), 227.0 YPG (10th), 3.0 TDs/game (7th), and 40.7 FPG allowed to opposing backfields (8th).
The Bottom Line: We all know Ty Fryfogle is going to eat. Penix would be foolish not to put the ball in the young man's hands. After that’s out of the way, the fact that the Hoosiers are heavy favorites with an anticipated positive game script will benefit Scott receiving a 63 percent share of carries. He may not run over many defenders, but this defense hasn’t been offering a hint of resistance.
Jarek Broussard, Colorado at USC (DK: $8.0K | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 26.75)
If I’m going to go after a RB above $7K, it’s going to be Jarek Broussard. The 5-foot-9, 185 pound redshirt sophomore has been on a tear to begin the season. He’s been very difficult to tackle, has been provided with the bulk of carries (31.5 touches/game), and he teams with Sam Noyer’s own rushing ability to form a dangerous read-option attack.
The Bottom Line: The singular weakness revealed by the USC defense thus far has been in stopping the run. Much of that issue is centered around missing tackles at a rate outside of the top 90 schools. In order to fit a pair of high-priced QBs onto Cash/SE lineups, we may need to look elsewhere. However, if we can find a way to fit him under the cap, trust in his skills leading you to the promised land of rewards.
Jo’Quavious Marks, Mississippi State at Ole Miss (DK: $5.1K | O/U: 69.5 | Implied: 30.0)
I may end up with multiple Cash lineups with both Stevie Scott III and Jo’Quavious Marks. Both are cost-effective, head into Week 13 in absolute smash spots. Marks has been the singular bright spot during HC Mike Leach’s first season with the Bulldogs. While he’s been significantly more of a receiving threat, a date with the Ole Miss “run defense” should pay off big. Even if he were to only provide us with around eight-to-10 FPs on the ground, adding that to an average of 7.3 targets over seven games would nearly guarantee a profit.
The Bottom Line: Let’s run down the Rebels’ run D metrics. They’ve allowed 5.84 YPC (8th-highest), 243.4 YPG (5th), 3.43 TDs/game (4th), and 44.9 FPG to opposing backfields (3rd). No defense on the slate has allowed more rushing yards or TDs. Considering the 69.5 implied total between these teams, the scoreboard controller is going to earn his paycheck. Another factor to consider is the weather. The forecast is calling for a 40 percent chance of rain. Wet conditions could force the pass-happy Leach to run the ball more often than he prefers.
My preferred Flex RB salary-savers:
Jase McClellan, Alabama vs. Auburn (DK: $4.0K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 43.5)
Brian Robinson Jr., Alabama vs. Auburn (DK: $3.3K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 43.5)
LD Brown, Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech (DK: $4.2K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 32.5)
Caziah Holmes, Penn State at Michigan (DK: $3.4K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 28.0)
Alternatives:
Zonovan Knight, NC State vs. Syracuse (DK: $6.9K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 32.75)
Najee Harris, Alabama vs. Auburn (DK: $9.6K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 43.5)
Jake Funk, Maryland at Indiana (DK: $6.2K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 26.25)
Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech (DK: $6.6K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 32.5)
Sean Tucker, Syracuse vs. NC State (DK: $5.5K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 18.25)
Keyvone Lee, Penn State at Michigan (DK: $5.3K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 28.0)
$4.5K-or-less flex options:
David Ellis, Indiana vs. Maryland (DK: $4.5K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 37.25)
David Bailey, Boston College vs. Louisville (DK: $4.4K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 28.0)
Trey Sermon, Ohio State at Illinois (DK: $3.8K | O/U: 71.5 | Implied: 49.75)
D.J. Williams, Auburn at Alabama (DK: $4.1K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 19.0)
Receivers
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State at Illinois (DK: $6.8K | O/U: 71.5 | Implied: 49.75)
I simply could not believe my eyes when I noticed that Chris Olave was only priced at $6.8K. Garrett Wilson’s salary is $8.4K, for comparison’s sake. Unless DK salary constructors are just being kind, the only other reasonable explanation is that someone hit a six instead of a seven when setting his salary. Either way, Olave should be 100 percent owned on Saturday.
The Bottom Line: When Justin Fields watched footage from last week, if he didn’t spot all of the routes where he missed a wide open Olave, his coaching staff definitely brought each instance to his attention. I fully believe that Week 13 will be a get-right game for both Fields and Olave. Even if you disagree, how can you sit Olave at $6.8K?
Ty Fryfogle, WR, Indiana vs. Maryland (DK: $7.8K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 37.25)
No WR in the country has improved his draft stock more this season than Ty Fryfogle. What he did last week to the Ohio State defense will stick in the minds of NFL teams for months to come. They may have sent their evaluators to measure up the OSU roster stacked with former four- and five-stars, but they all ended up turning their heads in another direction. Fryfogle was literally unguardable against a secondary of future first-round defensive backs.
The Bottom Line: The craziest part about Fryfogle’s 7/210/3 output against the Buckeyes is that he also dropped a pair of passes. Let’s also not forget that he collected 11/200/2 the previous week against Michigan State. How can a single Cash/SE lineup be constructed without Ty after averaging 42.0 FPG over his last three games?
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State at Michigan (DK: $6.5K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 28.0)
Turning in a trifecta of must-start receiving options, somehow Jahan Dotson is finally reasonably priced the week after putting up 30.9 FPs against a stingy Hawkeyes’ secondary. How does that work? Over his last four, Dotson has put together a combined receiving line of 27/433/5 (25.1 FPG). The $1.7K dip in salary after his 4.7 FP-output from Week 11 is understandable. Another $600 drop after Iowa is mind-boggling. Not that I’m complaining, nor should you. We have a great opportunity for Dotson exposure in a smash spot.
The Bottom Line: The Michigan defense is allowing 274.0 passing YPG (25th-highest), 2.4 TDs/game (21st), and 63.0 FPG to opposing receivers (20th). They’re also allowing 36 PPG to opposing offenses (27th-highest). After benching QB Sean Clifford in favor of Will Levis, Penn State switched back to Clifford, and he nearly brought the Nittany Lions back from a 31-7 deficit. That included a 68-yard strike to Dotson. Jahan’s upside is at its best with Clifford under center. The Nebraska game that resulted in those 4.7 FPs was the result of Levis leading the offense the majority of the game. If Clifford is named the starter -- which is likely, plug Dotson into your lineups, and don’t look back.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC vs. Colorado (DK: $6.4K | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 37.25)
and/or
Drake London, WR, USC vs. Colorado (DK: $6.2K | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 37.25)
Here we are again, left with a decision to make on USC receivers. And we do need to make a decision in this spot. Colorado’s secondary is permitting the 10th-most passing YPG (315.0), 14th-most TDs/game (2.5), and eighth-most FPG to opposing receivers (72.0). After some mixed weather conditions in Los Angeles to begin their season, the Trojans will have clear skies, and a light breeze on Saturday.
The Bottom Line: To make matters even better for the passing offense, the Buffaloes run defense has limited opponents to 122.5 YPG (29th-best). Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the group with a 22 percent target share, an average of 128.6 air yards/game. Drake London has garnered an 18 percent share with 98.4 air yards/game. Bru McCoy is also in play at $4.2K, a 13 percent target share -- 24 percent last week, and an average of 43.6 air yards/game. You can also consider Tyler Vaughns, but I’ve not been blown away by his play this season. With a quartet of capable receiving options against a vanilla secondary, you can get an idea why I am fully anticipating Kedon Slovis to exceed value.
Alternatives:
Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson vs. Pittsburgh (DK: $7.5K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 39.5)
Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State (DK: $9.4K | O/U: 69.5 | Implied: 39.5)
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama vs. Auburn (DK: $9.2K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 43.5)
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State at Illinois (DK: $8.4K | O/U: 71.5 | Implied: 49.75)
Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech (DK: $7.1K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 32.5)
Cornell Powell, WR, Clemson vs. Pittsburgh (DK: $6.3K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 39.5)
Tyler Vaughns, WR, USC vs. Colorado (DK: $5.7K | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 37.25)
Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, WR, Northwestern vs. Michigan State (DK: $5.6K | O/U: 41.5 | Implied: 27.5)
Dontay Demus Jr., WR, Maryland at Indiana (DK: $5.5K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 26.25)
Whop Philyor, WR, Indiana vs. Maryland (DK: $5.2K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 37.25)
John Metchie III, WR, Alabama vs. Auburn (DK: $5.2K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 43.5)
Rakim Jarrett, WR, Maryland at Indiana (DK: $5.1K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 26.25)
$4.5K-or-less options:
Josh Ali, WR, Kentucky at Florida (DK: $4.3K | O/U: 60.5 | Implied: 17.5)
Bru McCoy, WR, USC vs. Colorado (DK: $4.2K | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 37.25)
Check status:
Pat Freiermuth, WR, Penn State at Michigan (DK: $3.0K | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 28.0)
Optimal Passing Game Stacks (Cash/SE)
Pay particular attention to the labels between each receiving option. Here are the guidelines:
Plus (+) = Optimal receiving stack
Plus/Minus (+/-) = Triple stack option
Plus/or (+/or) = More than one optimal receiving stack and worthy triple stack option
Or = More than one worthy secondary option in a triple stack
For the Run-Back Options: salaries are not included in provided cap calculations.
The combined salary listings are calculated triple stacks consisting of the QB plus the first two receiving options.
Trevor Lawrence + Amari Rodgers +/or Cornell Powell
Run-Back Options: None
Clemson Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Line: -24.0 | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 39.5 | Combined Salary: $22.8K DK | Cap: 45.6%
Justin Fields + Chris Olave +/- Garrett Wilson
Run-Back Options: None
Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini
Line: -28.0 | O/U: 71.5 | Implied: 49.75 | Combined Salary: $24.9K DK | Cap: 49.8%
Michael Penix Jr. + Ty Fryfogle +/- Whop Philyor
Run-Back Options: Dontay Demus Jr., Rakim Jarrett
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Maryland Terrapins
Line: -11.0 | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 37.25 | Combined Salary: $21.8K DK | Cap: 43.6%
Kedon Slovis + Amon-Ra St. Brown +/or Drake London +/- Bru McCoy
Run-Back Options: Dimitri Stanley, K.D. Nixon
USC Trojans vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Line: -10.5 | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 37.25 | Combined Salary: $20.5K DK | Cap: 41.0%
Passing Game Stacks (GPPs)
Taulia Tagovailoa + Dontay Demus Jr. +/or Rakim Jarrett
Run-Back Options: Ty Fryfogle, Whop Philyor
Maryland Terrapins at Indiana Hoosiers
Line: +11.0 | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 26.25 | Combined Salary: $18.0K DK | Cap: 36.0%
Sam Noyer + Dimitri Stanley +/- K.D. Nixon (check health status)
Run-Back Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, Bru McCoy, Tyler Vaughns
Colorado Buffaloes vs. USC Trojans
Line: +10.5 | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 26.75 | Combined Salary: $17.1K DK | Cap: 34.2%
Mac Jones + DeVonta Smith +/or John Metchie III
Run-Back Options: Anthony Schwartz, Seth Williams
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers
Line: -24.5 | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 43.5 | Combined Salary: $22.6K DK | Cap: 45.2%
Cade McNamara + Cornelius Johnson +/or Ronnie Bell
Run-Back Options: Jahan Dotson, Pat Freiermuth
Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Line: -2.0 | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 30.0 | Combined Salary: $18.0K DK | Cap: 36.0%
