Scott Barrett's Week 9 Sunday Update

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Scott Barrett's Week 9 Sunday Update

Hello and welcome to the Week 9 Update. What is this article? Mostly it’s a follow-up to yesterday’s big DFS piece – Scott Barrett’s Week 9 DFS Breakdown. But this article should also offer some utility for redraft and dynasty players.

Each week I’ll be breaking down the key injuries, news, and notes from Saturday / Sunday and will be updating this article up until kickoff (1PM EST). And I’ll also be providing a sort of TL;DR to yesterday’s big DFS article. Who are my core cash game plays? You can find that at the end of the article.

Key News

- BREAKING: Falcons WR Calvin Ridley is officially OUT.

- BREAKING: Chargers WR Keenan Allen WILL PLAY. - BREAKING: Per Ian Rapoport, who is often wrong, expect a Christian McCaffrey and Mike Davis to rotate series this week. Something along the lines of a “Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray-esque split.” I really liked McCaffrey as a low-owned leverage play off of Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry, but this has me nervous.

- BREAKING: Per Michael Gehlken, Cowboys beat writer for the Dallas Morning News, “Cowboys are preparing to be without RB Ezekiel Elliott (hamstring) on Sunday vs. Steelers. Team has elevated FB Sewo Olonilua from practice squad. More backfield depth behind Tony Pollard, Rico Dowdle if Elliott inactive. Mike McCarthy has said Elliott to have pregame workout.” More on this if you scroll down. Per Ian Rapoport, he “has a good chance to play.”

- BREAKING: Texans CB Bradley Roby is OUT for Week 9 against the Jaguars. This is an absolutely massive upgrade for D.J. Chark. When Roby is active, this is probably a bottom-7 matchup for any WR1. When he’s out it’s probably top-5. Still, he’s hard to trust with Jake Luton under center. He’s not a Tier 1 or Tier 2 Play, but he is a fine contrarian option who will go lower owned. And he’s probably the best bring-back for Texans stacks.

- Chargers’ WR Keenan Allen (illness) has been added to the team’s injury report and is now listed as questionable to play Sunday vs. Raiders. This pushes him firmly behind all of Tyler Lockett, Stefon Diggs, and Julio Jones. Downgrade Justin Herbert (Deshaun Watson is probably now the superior option for cash), upgrade Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, and Jalen Guyton. K.J. Hill (who saw 2 targets on 24 routes in Week 5) is the direct backup to Allewn. Mike Williams caught 5 of 7 targets for 109 yards and 2 scores in Week 5, when Allen missed the last 3 quarters of the game due to injury. He’s an AMAZING play if Allen sits out. UPDATE: Keenan Allen WILL PLAY.

- BREAKING: The Lions have activated QB Matthew Stafford from the reserve/COVID-10 list, and will start in Week 9. - Denver Broncos starting CBs AJ Bouye and Bryce Callahan are both OUT.

- Cardinals CB Dre Kirkpatrick (thigh) has been ruled out for Week 9 against the Dolphins. This could push Patrick Peterson to shadow DeVante Patrick, which would leave Preston Williams in a very favorable matchup. Every Miami player projects to be less than 1% owned this week.

- Seahawks RBs Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde are OUT, Travis Homer WILL PLAY. RB Alex Collins was signed off of the practice squad. HC Pete Carroll said he’s “very comfortable” playing RB Alex Collins this week against the Bills. RB DeeJay Dallas was high on our radar, but he’s no longer necessary if Elliott sits out, and this news is a little disencouraging. Seahawks Insider Joe Fann expects a full split between Homer and Dallas, with Dallas getting a little more work in the passing game.

- Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins is OUT.

- Lions WR Kenny Golladay is OUT. WR Quintez Cephus is ACTIVE.

- Dolphins RB Matt Breida is OUT.

- Cardinals RB Kenyan Drake is OUT.

- Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew is OUT.

- Titans WR Adam Humphries is OUT.

- Colts WR Ashton Dulin is OUT, WR TY Hilton is OUT. TE Mo Alie-Cox WILL PLAY.

- Bills TE Dawson Knox

- Ravens RB Mark Ingram is OUT.

- Raiders RB Josh Jacobs (illness) is QUESTIONABLE.

- Broncos WR Tim Patrick is QUESTIONABLE.

- Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay is ACTIVE.

Chalk

- According to our Ownership Projections, powered by FanShare, the highest-owned players are likely to be:

DraftKings

1.Chase Edmonds (30.3%)

2. Dalvin Cook (29.6%)

3. Keenan Allen (21.9%)

4. James Conner (20.2%)

5. Tyler Lockett (20.0%)

6. Derrick Henry (17.8%)

7. Noah Fant (16.8%)

8. Julio Jones (16.2%)

9. Stefon Diggs (15.2%)

10. David Johnson (15.0%)

FanDuel

1. Dalvin Cook (29.6%)

2. Chase Edmonds (19.6%)

3. Keenan Allen (23.9%)

4. Josh Jacobs (21.0%)

5. Stefon Diggs (20.9%)

6. Tyler Lockett (19.1%)

7. Steelers DEF (18.6%)

8. Robby Anderson (17.8%)

9. Darren Waller (17.3%)

10. Julio Jones (16.7%)

Things I Think

Here’s what I had to say about Tony Pollard yesterday:

Pittsburgh is an absolutely brutal matchup for any RB, and Dallas has the lowest implied point total of the week (14.25, 3.25 less than the Jets). Even so, if Ezekiel Elliott (currently questionable with a hamstring) is ruled out, Pollard becomes a borderline must-play. And if Elliott is active, but severely limited, Pollard becomes a very strong play at-worst. For a few weeks now, Greg Cosell has continually griped on our livestreams that “this does not look like the same Ezekiel Elliott on tape.”

If the news comes in late that Elliott is out, he’ll be a terrific GPP play. If it comes early, he’ll be higher owned and better suited for cash (high floor, low ceiling).

I spent a great deal of time outlining the top plays of the week in yesterday’s article. If looking to go a little unique (factoring in ownership), I’d look at Cousins and his receivers as leverage off of Dalvin Cook. Wes Huber is all over them from an advanced matchup-perspective.

Kyler Murray + DeAndre Hopkins is going to be lower owned and is excellent leverage off of Chase Edmonds.

Lamar Jackson + Marquise Brown / Mark Andrews has massive slate-busting upside relative to ownership.

Justin Herbert + Mike Williams + Hunter Henry is cheap, will go lower-owned, and has massive upside if Keenan Allen sits out.

It’s more thin than the others, but Ben Roethlisberger stacks are a great way to go unique with good upside (think Patrick Mahomes vs. NYJ last week) while also fading James Conner, but Conner is looking to go way lower owned than he should. I like him A LOT.

Cash Core (DK/FD)

QB: Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, Drew Lock (DK)

RB: Dalvin Cook, Tony Pollard (if Ezekiel Elliott is OUT), Chase Edmonds, James Conner, Justin Jackson, David Johnson

WR: Tyler Lockett, Stefon Diggs, Julio Jones, Brandin Cooks, Justin Jefferson, Mike Williams (if Keenan Allen is OUT)

TE: Darren Waller (FD), Noah Fant, Mark Andrews (DK), Hunter Henry (DK), Irv Smith (DK)

DEF: ATL, HOU, NYG (DK), AZ (FD)

Scott Barrett combines a unique background in philosophy and investing alongside a lifelong love of football and spreadsheets to serve as FantasyPoints’ Director of Analytics and Lead DFS Writer.