Hello and welcome to the Week 7 Update. What is this article? Mostly it’s a follow-up to yesterday’s big DFS piece – Scott Barrett’s Week 7 DFS Breakdown. But this article should also offer some utility for redraft and dynasty players.
Each week I’ll be breaking down the key injuries, news, and notes from Saturday / Sunday and will be updating this article up until kickoff (1PM EST). And I’ll also be providing a sort of TL;DR to yesterday’s big DFS article. Who are my core cash game plays? You can find that at the end of the article.
Key News
- BREAKING: Packers RB Aaron Jones is NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY. RB Tyler Ervin is also OUT. Through 5 games, Jones has handled 63% of Green Bay’s backfield XFP, with Williams sitting at 27%. Jones was averaging 15.0 carries, 5.6 targets, and 17.0 routes run per game. Williams is averaging 6.6 carries, 2.8 targets, and 14.2 routes run per game. A.J. Dillon is averaging 2.6 carries, 0.0 targets, and 0.0 routes run per game. Dillon had 845 carries to 21 catches in college. Basically, I’m expecting Williams to receive about 60-65% of the carries and 85% of the backfield routes. Keep in mind, this is a best-possible matchup, and Jones ranked 2nd among all players in XFP% (27.9%). Williams isn’t nearly as talented, but he’ll see even better usage than what Jones typically gets, and this is a dream matchup. Green Bay also offers the highest implied point total of the slate (30.25). He’s an amazing play, rivaling Giovani Bernard in terms of value. He’s probably a little less safe, while offering a bit more upside. RB ownership will be highly condensed between Williams, Bernard, Kamara, and Hunt. Dillon is a viable punt and would offer leverage off of Williams, and maybe also Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams.
- BREAKING: Jaguars placed RB Chris Thompson on the reserve/COVID-19 list, while activating RB Devine Ozigbo. James Robinson at 6% ownership looks very enticing. Maybe it’s not a great matchup, but a true bell cow workload seems likely. Thompson and Robinson combined to play all but 6 of the team’s RB snaps this year, with Robinson leading the backfield 65/35. Robinson didn’t initially get a write-up because the matchup seemed better suited towards Thompson’s skillset as the pass-catching back. Jacksonville is 7.5-point underdogs, and Los Angeles is giving up the fewest rushing FPG to opposing RBs, but the 2nd-most receiving FPG to opposing RBs. He’s probably close to a lower-end Tier 2 RB play now.
- BREAKING: Jets WR Jamison Crowder is DOUBTFUL. Braxton Berrios is only $3,200 on DraftKings, and now rivals Tre’Quan Smith and Gabriel Davis as one of the better WR punts of the slate. Berrios averaged 6.0 targets and 17.2 FPG across Weeks 2-3 when Crowder sat out. Adam Gase does only one thing well, and that’s getting his slot WR some fantasy points. And maybe the same thing can be said for Sam Darnold, dating back to the Quincy Enunwa-era. Breshad Perriman becomes a very good play, but the threat of a Tre’Davious White shadow makes him risky. If White also sits out he might be an even better play than Smith or Davis.
- Bills WR John Brown is OUT.
- Bills TE Dawson Knox is OUT. This bumps Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, while also pushing Tyler Kroft in play as a viable punt.
- Saints WRs Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are OUT.
- Bengals RB Joe Mixon is OUT.
- Browns TE Austin Hooper is OUT.
- Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins is OUT.
- 49ers RB Raheem Mostert is OUT. 49ers RB Jeff Wilson is EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- Chargers RB Justin Jackson is QUESTIONABLE but EXPECTED TO PLAY. He’ll draw ownership, but I don’t think he’s at all necessary in a week with Jamaal Williams and Giovani Bernard offering tremendous value. And, in fact, I’m not even sure he out-scores Joshua Kelley this week.
- Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins is QUESTIONABLE but EXPECTED TO PLAY. Per Adam Schefter, "Cardinals’ WR DeAndre Hopkins, listed as questionable for Sunday night due to an ankle injury, is expected to play vs. the Seahawks, per source. Hopkins being on the injury report due to his ankle, and playing, are become a weekly occurrence." If he’s out, bump up Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella. Kyler Murray, already a cash favorite, would get a big bump down in our projections. On paper, Hopkins is a phenomenal play, but there obviously is some risk here.
- Patriots WR Julian Edelman is QUESTIONABLE (knee) but EXPECTED TO PLAY. He’s averaging just 22 YPG and 3.7 YPT since first popping on the injury report in Week 3.
Chalk
- According to our Ownership Projections, powered by FanShare, the highest-owned players are likely to be:
DraftKings
1. Alvin Kamara (33%)
2. Giovani Bernard (30%)
3. Kareem Hunt (25%)
4. Davante Adams (22%)
5. Justin Jackson (17%)
FanDuel
1. Alvin Kamara (33%)
2. Kareem Hunt (31%)
3. Davante Adams (22%)
4. Aaron Jones (20%)
5. Travis Kelce (18%)
Things I Think
I think this is another very tough week for cash game players. I think it’s extremely tough for single-entry and 3-max tournament players. I think this is a great week for MME players, and for 20-max contests.
I think this is a great week to go contrarian, with so many plays highly owned, and so many attractive games drawing lesser ownership.
Luckily, I dedicated a section to all this in yesterday’s column…
Cash Core (DK/FD)
QB: Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow (DK), Matthew Stafford (FD)
RB: Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, Giovani Bernard, Kareem Hunt
WR: Terry McLaurin (DK), Keenan Allen (DK), Diontae Johnson (DK), Stefon Diggs (FD), DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Tyler Lockett (DK) / D.K. Metcalf (FD), Tre’Quan Smith / Gabriel Davis / Breshad Perriman (if White is out) / Braxton Berrios (all DK), Davante Adams, Brandin Cooks (DK) / Will Fuller (FD)
TE: Travis Kelce, Hunter Henry, T.J. Hockenson (FD), Jared Cook (DK)
DEF: Football Team, Chargers (DK), Browns (DK), Cowboys (FD), Bills (FD)
