Hello and welcome to the Week 13 Update. What is this article? Mostly it’s a follow-up to yesterday’s big DFS piece – Scott Barrett’s Week 13 DFS Breakdown. But this article should also offer some utility for redraft and dynasty players.
Each week I’ll be breaking down the key injuries, news, and notes from Saturday / Sunday and will be updating this article up until kickoff (1PM EST). And I’ll also be providing a sort of TL;DR to yesterday’s big DFS article. Who are my core cash game plays? You can find that at the end of the article.
Key News, Injury Updates, & Notes
Sunday Morning Updates
- BREAKING: Dolphins RBs Malcolm Perry, DeAndre Washington, and Salvon Ahmed are OUT. Only Myles Gaskin and Patrick Laid are active in addition to Lynn Bowden. Expect a massive workload for Myles Gaskin. Per Dr. Jene Bramel (FBG) “injury should not limit effectiveness” for Gaskin. I’m nearly all-in.
- BREAKING: Per Tom Pelissero, “Vikings RB Dalvin Cook shrugged off the suggestion he's beat up, even after limited practice this week. With Alexander Mattison (appendectomy) out today against the #Jaguars, expect Cook to get plenty of work, with Mike Boone spelling him.” Per Dr. Jene Bramel: “"Minor ankle sprain, full Friday practice, will play… Vikings want to be 'smart' w/ usage but Mattison's appendicitis likely means Cook gets 20+ touches again." He’s the best player worth paying up for and maybe the top RB-play overall.
- BREAKING: Per Dr. Jene Bramel whose updates were absolute fire.emoji this morning, “expect Ben Roethlisberger, Terry McLaurin, Allen Robinson, and Jerry Jeudy to see their typical snap count. While Carlos Hyde, Philip Lindsay, Kalen Ballage, and Zach Ertz will likely see limited usage due to injury.” That’s about what we had in mind as well. Dr. Jene added (on Gurley): “Likely dealing w/ flare in arthritic knee… Has struggled to remain effective with past flares, usage likely to be managed in first week back…”
- BREAKING: Falcons WR Julio Jones WILL PLAY. Per Dr. Jene Bramel, “Julio Jones: Ongoing hamstring soreness, sounded very confident in his recovery… "no route I couldn't run" in Friday's practice… Productive Week 6 return after missing Week 5 - 64 snaps, 10 targets, 8-137-2… Aggravation will be risk again but ceiling expectation is in play…” He’s likely to draw CB Marshon Lattimore in shadow coverage today, leaving Calvin Ridley in an advantageous matchup against backup CB Patrick Robinson. Jones is still the more intriguing of the 2 at only $6,600 on DraftKings. He’s a strong value and a fine play.
- BREAKING: Per Ian Rapoport: "Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is expected to start for Miami, while #Colts QB Philip Rivers will likely need surgery following the season to repair a plantar plate rupture. But he’ll play on the injury, which could also be described as a really bad turf toe." Upgrade Myles Gaskin slightly, significantly downgrade DeVante Parker. He’s no longer really in play. Neither is Tagovailoa (we liked Fitzpatrick quite a bit.) This is about what I feared with Rivers. Upgrade RB Jonathan Taylor. He’s a solid value on FanDuel. Give a slight downgrade to WR Michal Pittman.
- BREAKING: Lions RB D’Andre Swift is OUT. As expected.
- BREAKING: Texans WR Isaiah Coulter is inactive. WR Steven Mitchell will start over him as expected. I do not think this necessarily means HOU plays a lot more 2TE sets than typical.
Late Saturday Updates
- Per Adam Schefter: “Bears’ WR’s Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney, both listed as questionable for Sunday due to knee injuries, both are expected to play vs. the Lions, per source.” I’m still hoping for more clarity here.
- Per Adam Schefter: “Falcons’ WR Julio Jones (hamstring) and RB Todd Gurley (knee), both listed as questionable for Sunday, both are expected to play vs. Saints barring any pre-game setbacks, per source.” (Again, I’m looking forward to hearing what Dr. Chao and Dr. Gene Bramel have to say on Jones Sunday AM.)
- “Per Adam Schefter: "Seahawks’ RB Carlos Hyde, who is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game due to a lingering case of turf toe, will play vs. the Giants, per source." (Bump Chris Carson a spot or too. I’m still expecting Carson to handle the lion’s share of the touches. He’s a solid value on DraftKings.)
- Per Adam Schefter: "Chargers’ RB Kalen Ballage, listed as questionable for Sunday’s game due to an ankle injury, will play vs. the Patriots, per source." (Bump Ekeler down slightly but not by much.)
- Per Adam Schefter: “Giants’ QB Colt McCoy is expected to start Sunday against the Seahawks in place of the injured Daniel Jones, per source. Jones still is recovering from a hamstring injury, and the Giants also promoted practice-squad QB Clayton Thorson to the active roster for Sunday’s game.” (As expected.)
- Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin has been activated from injured reserve. Fellow Dolphins RBs Salvon Ahmed and DeAndre Washington are DOUBTFUL. We talked about this quite a bit yesterday.
- Lions RB D’Andre Swift has been downgraded to doubtful. Kerryon Johnson (DK: $4,400 / FD: $5,200) is in play as a punt option. He totals 17 carries and 9 targets over his last 2 games. He’s not high on my radar, but he’s in play.
- Texans RB David Johnson has been activated from injured reserve. He’s not really in play.
- Vikings RB Alexander Mattison (illness) is OUT.
- Las Vegas RB Josh Jacobs is OUT.
- Titans TE Jonnu Smith is OUT.
- Vikings TE Irv Smith is OUT.
- Lions WR Kenny Golladay is OUT. WR Marvin Hall was released earlier this week. You can take a look at WR Quintez Cephus as a punt-play, but it’s thin.
- Lions starting outside CBs Jeffrey Okudah and Desmond Trufant are OUT. Slot CB Tracy Walker is QUESTIONABLE. That’s a huge upgrade to all Chicago WRs, and all 3 of them are popping as values per the SuperModel.
- Dolphins RB Matt Breida is OUT.
- Seahawks RB Travis Homer is DOUBTFUL, RB Carlos Hyde is QUESTIONABLE.
- Giants QB Daniel Jones is DOUBTFUL.
- Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald is DOUBTFUL.
- Bears WRs Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney are QUESTIONABLE. From the sound of things, the team is just being overly-cautious with Mooney and he’s much more likely to play than not. It’s hard to say what’s going on with Robinson. He injured his knee in Friday’s practice, left practice, and then picked up a questionable tag. Robinson was also questionable in Week 10 with a knee injury (when he went 6-43-0). I think he’s likely to play, but there’s a chance this injury impacts his performance. I’m hoping to get more clarity Sunday AM. If all 3 WRs were perfectly healthy, Robinson would be the No. 1 WR play on FanDuel and a top play on DraftKings. Mooney would rank as a top value on DraftKings and Miller wouldn’t be too far behind him.
- Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is QUESTIONABLE. But if I had to guess, I’d say he probably plays. If he does, upgrade Gaskin slightly and give a huge downgrade to DeVante Parker.
- Falcons RB Todd Gurley is QUESTIONABLE. WR Julio Jones is QUESTIONABLE. But both seem likely to play. I’m eager to hear Dr. Chao and Dr. Gene Bramel’s thoughts Sunday morning. If they think Julio Jones will be around 100% he’s mighty interesting on DraftKings ($6,600) at likely low ownership.
- Chargers RB Kalen Ballage is QUESTIONABLE. Give a very slight downgrade to Ekeler if he plays.
- Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay and WR Jerry Jeudy are QUESTIONABLE but LIKELY TO PLAY.
Chalk
- According to our Ownership Projections, powered by FanShare, the highest-owned players are likely to be:
DraftKings
1. David Montgomery, RB (31.3%)
2. Brandin Cooks, WR (27.3%)
3. Dalvin Cook, RB (25.4%)
4. Derrick Henry, RB (25.4%)
5. Austin Ekeler, RB (23.9%)
6. Denzel Mims, WR (22.7%)
7. Keke Coutee, WR (22.7%)
8. Allen Robinson, WR (18.2%)
9. James Robinson, RB (17.9%)
10. Davante Adams, WR (16.7%)
FanDuel
1. David Montgomery, RB (31.3%)
2. Brandin Cooks, WR (27.3%)
3. Dalvin Cook, RB (25.4%)
4. Derrick Henry, RB (25.4%)
5. Austin Ekeler, RB (23.9%)
6. Denzel Mims, WR (22.7%)
7. Keke Coutee, WR (22.7%)
8. Allen Robinson, WR (18.2%)
9. James Robinson, RB (17.9%)
10. Davante Adams, WR (16.7%)
Things I Think
I think I probably should have waited until after the season before I tried to quit caffeine and other vices.
I think the Dalvin Cook vs. Derrick Henry debate was made easy for us when Alexander Mattison got ruled out. There’s still a chance Mike Boone and Ameer Abdullah steal a good amount of work while HC Mike Zimmer tries to rest Cook down the stretch. But even if that is the case he still feels like a lock for at least 20 touches in a lay-up matchup. (He averages 27.9 touches per game since Week 3.) He’s a top-2 RB play on both sites. Henry is also in play, but not the priority, and probably a distance behind James Robinson (who is $1900-2200 cheaper).
I feel good about a lot of individual plays -- Aaron Rodgers QB1, Kirk Cousins QB2 on FanDuel, Myles Gaskin RB2 (behind Cook), a fully healthy Allen Robinson WR1 on FanDuel, Michael Pittman as a top value, Chris Carson RB5 on DraftKings, Anthony Firkser TE1, Robert Tonyan TE2 on DraftKings, etc. -- a lot of individual plays that the other major sites seem to disagree on, but overall I don’t feel as strongly about this slate as I did last week.
Cash Core (DK/FD)
QB: Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins (FD), Ryan Tannehill (DK), Mitch Trubisky, Justin Herbert (FD)
RB: Dalvin Cook, Myles Gaskin, Austin Ekeler, Chris Carson (DK), David Montgomery, Devontae Booker, James Robinson, Jonathan Taylor (FD)
WR: Brandin Cooks, Michael Pittman, Allen Robinson, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods (DK), Jarvis Landry (FD), Sterling Shepard (FD), Adam Thielen (FD), Other Punts (Breshad Perriman, Keke Coutee, Denzel Mims, Darnell Mooney, Anthony Miller, Danny Amendola, Andy Isabella)
TE: Anthony Firkser, Robert Tonyan (DK), Kyle Rudolph (FD), T.J. Hockenson, Darren Waller (FD), Dallas Goedert (DK), Jordan Akins
DEF: DET, SEA (DK), GB (FD), CHI (FD), NYG (DK), CIN (DK)