Week 5 features all of the Big 12, SEC, and 10-of-15 ACC teams in play. We’ve already covered the action from the first nine CFB DFS matchups on the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates. To reiterate, I’ve dedicated countless hours toward researching every facet of each of the listed matchups in order to provide you with trusted DFS recommendations. You’ll find listings below each game writeup for multi-entry tournaments, single-entry tournaments, and cash games alike. Make sure that you also jump on Discord tomorrow afternoon where I’ll post a link to access my personal spreadsheet. There you’ll find second-to-none statistical detail covering the entirety of the main slate.
*Please note that the swiftly expanding field of teams in action will prevent me from providing breakdowns for eight Group of Five games, the three Power Five teams facing FCS opponents, or LSU at Vanderbilt. These matchups are not included within the main slates on either DraftKings or FanDuel. However, I will be on Discord throughout Saturday where I’ll be available to discuss utilizing players from each of these unlisted matchups for DFS purposes. Without further delay, let’s jump into the remaining nine matchups.
Memphis @ SMU
Gametime: 3:30 PM ET
Location: Dallas, TX
Betting line: Memphis -2.5
Over/Under: 74.5
Highlight that Vegas over/under above to truly grasp the collective fireworks expected to go off Saturday afternoon. With both teams fielding vulnerable secondaries, I absolutely expect the score to exceed the 74.5 implied points. This will be the most significant test for both teams thus far. Memphis took the victory from Arkansas State 37-24 all the way back in Week 1. The Tigers are led by the sturdy pocket presence of Brady White. In Week 1, White racked up 30.1 FPs with a 16 percent carry share, a quartet of TD passes, and keeping the only GL attempt to himself. Two of his targets should be the entire focus of receiver attention from Memphis. Flanker Damonte Coxie put up an 8/90/1 line thanks to a 29 percent share of both RZ targets and overall targets.
Sean Dykes emerged against the Red Wolves to pull overly aggressive attention away from Coxie. Dykes collected all 10 targets for a ridiculous 10/137/2 line. It wouldn’t be a Memphis offense without a stud RB and, following Kenneth Gainwell’s opt out, Rodrigues Clark took a 47 percent backfield share to post a respectable 16.7 FPs. But the SMU offense will not stand aside as Memphis runs over its defense. Shane Buechele transferred to SMU from Texas two years ago after Sam Ehlinger beat him out for the starting job. All he has done since is average nearly 300 passing yards and 2.6 TDs over 16 games with the Mustangs.
When Buechele faced Memphis last season, he passed for 456 yards, and three TDs in a 54-48 thriller in favor of the Tigers. As you can understand, you’ll need to find room for Buechele’s lofty salary. His top target is Reggie Roberson Jr. Through three games, Roberson is averaging 19.2 FPs -- 30 percent of that on screen passes alone -- on a 23 percent target share and 33 percent share of all RZ targets. SMU also features Rashee Rice (20 percent target share, 3.86 YPRR), Danny Gray (12 percent target share, 2.84 YPRR), and Kylan Granson (14 percent target share, 44 percent RZ target share). And they balance their passing attack with the imposing backfield duo of T.J. McDaniel and Ulysses Bentley IV. Bentley might be the hottest pure running back in the country through four weeks.
Chalk: Brady White (DK: $8,200 | FD: $9,700), Rodrigues Clark (DK: $6,700 | FD: $8,800), Damonte Coxie (DK: $8,300 | FD: $9,400), Sean Dykes (DK: $5,000 | FD: $8,400), Shane Buechele (DK: $9,200 | FD: $10,200), Reggie Roberson Jr. (DK: $8,100 | FD: $9,300), Rashee Rice (DK: $5,900 | FD: $8,000), Ulysses Bentley IV (DK: $5,900 | FD: $8,600)
Cash: White, Clark, Coxie, Dykes, Buechele, Roberson, Rice, and Bentley
Digging Deep: Kylan Watkins (DK: $4,600 | FD: $7,300), Calvin Austin III (DK: $4,300 | FD: $7,200), Danny Gray (DK: $5,100 | FD: $7,100), Kylen Granson (DK: $5,700 | FD: $6,300)
On the fence: TJ McDaniel (DK: $7,500 | FD: $7,800)
Fade: Both Waterboy’s
Devy Talents: Coxie, Buechele, Roberson, and Bentley
Texas Tech @ Kansas State
Gametime: 3:30 PM ET
Location: Manhattan, KS
Betting line: Kansas State -2.5
Over/Under: 64.0
The other half of the classic showdown with Texas in Week 4, the Red Raiders will face the Wildcats fresh off an upset of Oklahoma. While the matchup might not have the expected total of a few of the other main slate matchups, 64 combined points at only 2.5 points in favor of KSU is nothing to sneeze at. For the second year in a row, Skylar Thompson scored on four TDs runs against the Sooners. His 22 percent ground share -- over 80 percent of rushing attempts by design -- and 57 percent GL attempt share shifts his floor upstairs. Chabastin Taylor (18 percent target share) and Briley Moore (23 percent target and 33 percent RZ target shares) combine to eat up most of the passing volume. Should Harry Trotter miss another week, fingers crossed, Deuce Vaughn would have an opportunity to show that his 12-touch, 167 combined yard, one TD performance was not an outlier. I still like Vaughn’s upside with Trotter in play, I just have a difficult time trusting the KSU rotation.
The Texas Tech offense should be considered nothing short of juggernaut-status. Alan Bowman is one of the very few QBs without at least a ten percent backfield share that I’ll expose to my LUs without hesitation. He’s able to feed three different wideouts with enough volume for standalone DFS value. T.J. Vasher heads the list as the first option with a 21 percent target and 25 percent RZ target share. KeSean Carter currently leads the TT WRs at 24.7 FPG with a 14 percent target and 25 percent RZ target share on only 39 percent of passing routes. Then we have Erik Ezukanma at flanker with a 17 percent target and 38 percent RZ target share. Last but far from least, SaRodrick Thompson’s NFL future is as bright as any in the Big 12 behind Chuba Hubbard. Thompson holds a 61 percent share of backfield reps, 13 percent share of RZ targets, and 10 percent share of all targets.
Chalk: Skylar Thompson (DK: $6,500 | FD: $9,500), Alan Bowman (DK: $7,600 | FD: $9,300), SaRodrick Thompson (DK: $7,100 | FD: $8,500), T.J. Vasher (DK: $6,100 | FD: $8,300), KeSean Carter (DK: $5,000 | FD: $7,400), Erik Ezukanma (DK: $6,000 | FD: $7,900)
Cash: Sk. Thompson, Bowman, Sa. Thompson, and Carter
Digging Deep: Deuce Vaughn (DK: $6,200 | FD: $8,000), Chabastin Taylor (DK: $6,200 | FD: $7,300), Briley Moore (DK: $4,000 | FD: $6,400)
On the fence: None
Fade: None
Devy Talents: Bowman, Sa. Thompson, and Vaughn
Virginia Tech @ Duke
Gametime: 4:00 PM ET
Location: Durham, NC
Betting line: Virginia Tech -10.5
Over/Under: 54.0
It’s tough to follow the previous two matchup’s firepower. With Duke struggling as a whole and the Hokies’ starting QB currently unknown, plucking DFS components is a task seeped in danger. We all thought Hendon Hooker would start last week against NC State. Then he didn’t. We were left with a timeshare of Braxton Burmester and Quincy Patterson II. HC Justin Fuente passed along that Hooker “might play.” I’ll pass on the lot. The Blue Devils have been horrendous against the run and lacking tackling fundamentals, to boot. Transfers from Kansas, Khalil Herbert, and Rutgers, Raheem Blackshear, should be able to provide value in this plus matchup. I’m also buying James Mitchell as their go-to receiving option.
Chalk: Khalil Herbert (DK: $6,600 | FD: $9,000), Raheem Blackshear (DK: $4,800 | FD: $7,500), James Mitchell (DK: $4,400 | FD: $7,200)
Cash: Herbert
Digging Deep: Tayvion Robinson (DK: $5,800 | FD: $7,000) and Tre Turner (DK: $5,200 | FD: $7,100)
On the fence: None
Fade: VT QBs and Duke Offense
Devy Talents: None
Ole Miss @ Kentucky
Gametime: 4:00 PM ET
Location: Lexington, KY
Betting line: Kentucky -6.5
Over/Under: 61.5
While I appreciate the obvious improvements displayed by Matt Corral last week, I am always left with a bitter taste in my mouth when I see improperly utilized talent. Serious consideration should be given to any player rushing for over 1,000 yards in the SEC. But when that player does so while playing QB, that accomplishment is elevated to the stratosphere. Despite that success, John Rhys Plumlee touched the ball just six times against Florida. If that level of involvement proves to be the norm, count on seeing the true sophomore placing his name in the transfer portal. Imagine Plumlee succeeding Skylar Thompson at KSU, or leading the Tulane or Navy attacks. Oh my! Until then, we have the Rebels facing one of the absolute top defenses in the country. The recruiting advantage held by Auburn over the Wildcats last week will not be a factor in this matchup.
The ejection of UF safety Shawn Davis on the opening drive provided Corral with the ability to open up the passing game. But that in no way discounts his play. He provided slot Elijah Moore with a 37 percent target share en route to an absurd 11/249/0 line. He also fed Dontario Drummond with 38 percent of RZ targets that resulted in a pair of TDs. As expected from a Lane Kiffin team, TE Kenny Yeboah took a 14 percent target share for 20.1 FPs. We’ll need to keep an eye on Yeboah’s status, however, as he was slow to get up after hitting the ground during the second half.
The Cats’ offense did not show out with the same results provided by Ole Miss during garbage time. Terry Wilson averaged a replacement level 6.0 YPA over 42 attempts. News that Joey Gatewood had been granted immediate eligibility by the SEC could signal the end of Wilson’s run without significant improvements. UKs three-headed backfield is another easy fade. But HC Mark Stoops’ prediction that Josh Ali was in for a big season held true through the first week. I’ll be all in on Ali this week regardless of who plays QB. The return of Bryce Oliver’s lid-lifting prowess should pull secondary attention from Ali enough to become a top value on a slate stacked to the gills with WR upside.
Chalk: Elijah Moore (DK: $6,900 | FD: $8,900), Dontario Drummond (DK: $5,400 | FD: $7,200), Jerrion Ealy (DK: $6,400 | FD: $8,000), Matt Corral (DK: $6,900 | FD: $9,200), Kenny Yeboah (DK: $4,000 | FD: $7,100), Josh Ali (DK: $5,600 | FD: $7,700)
Cash: Moore and Ali
Digging Deep: Bryce Oliver (DK: $3,000 | FD: $5,900)
On the fence: Joey Gatewood (DK: $5,800 | FD: $4,000)
Fade: Terry Wilson (DK: $7,400 | FD: $8,700) and Kentucky RBs
Devy Talents: Moore, Drummond, Jonathan Mingo, Ealy, Henry Parrish Jr., Gatewood, and Ali
Auburn @ Georgia
Gametime: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Athens, GA
Betting line: Georgia -6.5
Over/Under: 44.5
For two rosters absolutely loaded with four- and five-star talents, the Vegas predictions call for a cap on DFS potential. If you have an interest in wagering money against the spread, Georgia should have a clear cut path toward defeating Auburn for at least a full TD. And I am anticipating the combined scoring to exceed 44.5 implied points. These expectations are predicated on J.T. Daniels at QB for the Bulldogs. Georgia’s offense appeared stale with D’Wan Mathis and Stetson Bennett under center. Should Daniels sit, I don’t think the Zamir White and James Cook backfield will be able to bail the team out like they did last week in Fayetteville. George Pickens would also be in line for a big game with Daniels under center.
Bo Nix did not show the big time development I had hoped for against Kentucky. Granted he faced a top defense and passed for three TDs. But that really sums up the extent of his success with a significant talent advantage over the Kentucky roster. I normally tout a QB taking a 26 percent backfield share. However, Nix’s carries came at the direct expense of a talented individual I believe has the potential to be a national top-five Devy RB, D.J. Williams. Rather than feeding Edgerrin James’ 5-10, 208 pound nephew, Auburn split the reps between Nix, Shaun Shivers (22 percent), Tank Bigsby (22 percent), and Williams (30 percent). Until we see a change to that setup, the entire backfield is an unequivocal fade. The Tigers you should devote your attention toward are Seth Williams (46 percent target and 67 percent RZ target shares) and Anthony Schwartz (17 percent target share).
Chalk: J.T. Daniels (DK: $8,000 | FD: $7,200), Zamir White (DK: $6,500 | FD: $7,800), George Pickens (DK: $6,300 | FD: $8,000), Seth Williams (DK: $6,100 | FD: $8,100), Anthony Schwartz (DK: $4,500 | FD: $6,700)
Cash: Pickens and S. Williams
Digging Deep: James Cook (DK: $4,700 | FD: $6,300)
On the fence: None
Fade: Bo Nix (DK: $6,600 | FD: $7,800) and Auburn RBs
Devy Talents: Daniels, White, Cook, Kenny McIntosh, Kendall Milton, George Pickens, Dominick Blaylock, Arian Smith, Marcus Rosemary-Jacksaint, D. Williams, Bigsby, S. Williams, Schwartz, Kobe Hudson and Ze’Vian Capers
Tulsa @ UCF
Gametime: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Orlando, FL
Betting line: UCF -21.5
Over/Under: 72.0
It’ll be very interesting to see if this one follows the script. Tulsa played Oklahoma State to a standstill with a decent pass rush, and solid secondary play. Quite a step up in talent level considered, the Golden Hurricanes failed to get much going on the ground without Shamari Brooks (knee). I consider Zach Smith to be a weekly fade with only a six percent carry share. Sam Crawford Jr. (31 percent target share), Keylon Stokes (16 percent), and Josh Johnson (19 percent) do provide him with plenty of weapons. I just don’t see how Tulsa will cover their 25.25 expected points when the UCF defense only allowed 21 and 29 points to the superior offenses from Georgia Tech and East Carolina, respectively.
The projection I am thoroughly behind is for the Knights to score at will. Dillon Gabriel does meet my 10 percent carry share threshold but I’d be fine if he didn’t. Even with the potential absences of Tre Nixon and Otis Anderson, Gabriel will have Marlon Williams and Flash Robinson in tow to produce video game numbers. Williams is my No. 1 WR on the entire slate and Robinson’s upside matches any at a comparable salary. Even without Anderson, I’m not excited about Greg McCrae’s or Bentavious Thompson’s outlook since they are not involved in the passing game.
Chalk: Marlon Williams (DK: $7,700 | FD: $9,600), Dillon Gabriel (DK: $8,200 | FD: $10,400), Flash Robinson (DK: $5,200 | FD: $8,200)
Cash: M. Williams, Gabriel, and Robinson
Digging Deep: Jacob Harris (DK: $4,100 | FD: $6,500), Sam Crawford Jr. (DK: $3,900 | FD: $6,000), Keylon Stokes (DK: $5,000 | FD: $7,800), Josh Johnson (DK: $4,700 | FD: $7,400)
On the fence: Deneric Prince (DK: $4,300 | FD: $7,100)
Fade: Zach Smith (DK: $5,800 | FD: $7,900) and UCF RBs
Devy Talents: M. Williams and Gabriel
Arkansas @ Mississippi State
Gametime: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Starkville, MS
Betting line: Mississippi State -18.0
Over/Under: 69.0
The Bulldogs threw down a 44 spot with 632 yards against the defending champs last week. The Mike Leach Air Raid offense now heads home to Starkeville to face a fundamentally sound Arkansas defense. Putting down 43.5 implied points may actually sell the Mississippi State potential quite short. If you missed out on playing K.J. Costello last week then you should say goodbye to discount days. Costello is my No.1 QB from the main slate, independent of salary. I am the guy who told you to fade the top scoring back from Week 4. I simply did not see that level of explosion from Kylin Hill coming. With a 67 percent carry and 20 percent target shares, I think we can safely consider him a top play at RB.
Each of Osirus Mitchell, JaVonta Payton, Austin Williams project to produce multiples of value against what will be an overmatched Razorbacks’ secondary. Arkansas will play from a negative script from very early in the contest. Treylon Burks took down a 26 percent target share and four percent carry share against Georgia. He will be a considerable value here. Feleipe Franks might even be worthy of a tourney dart. But the Arkansas RBs are easy fades after Mississippi State’s defense limited the talented LSU backfield to 80 rushing yards on 38 carries.
Chalk: K.J. Costello (DK: $9,300 | FD: $10,500), Kylin Hill (DK: $8,100 | FD: $9,500), Osiris Mitchell (DK: $7,500 | FD: $9,800), JaVonta Payton (DK: $5,700 | FD: $7,000), Austin Williams (DK: $4,400 | FD: $6,700), Treylon Burks (DK: $5,300 | FD: $8,100)
Cash: Costello, Hill, Mitchell, and Burks
Digging Deep: Tyrell Shavers (DK: $4,700 | FD: $7,500), Malik Heath (DK: $3,000 | FD: $5,800), Mike Woods (DK: $4,000 | FD: $6,800)
On the fence: Feleipe Franks (DK: $5,200 | FD: $7,600)
Fade: Arkansas RBs
Devy Talents: Costello, Hill, Mitchell, and Payton
Oklahoma @ Iowa State
Gametime: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Ames, IA
Betting line: Oklahoma -7.0
Over/Under: 62.5
The Cyclones lost a heartbreaker to Louisiana and followed it with a three point victory over TCU in Fort Worth. The Sooners head into Ames after losing to Kansas State by three points, as well. Vegas is giving OU the benefit as a one TD favorite. I feel this may actually be an even match. Brock Purdy simply doesn’t appear to be the same confident QB that ran for 18 TDs over the last two seasons. Not to mention his inability to form a meaningful connection with any ISU WR. Even the elite talent of Charlie Kolar failed to get anything going with Purdy last week. However, with Breece Hall taking handoffs, the Iowa State offense will have some time to turn things around.
The issue for Oklahoma is not on the offensive side of the ball. Their problems revolve around poor tackling and a vulnerable secondary. Spencer Rattler put a bit too much of that burden on his shoulders last week, leading to a trio of INTs. He did professionally split his 41 targets to nine different receivers. I will also add that Rattler is not the ground threat of previous OU QBs. With Charleston Rambo (15 percent target, 25 percent RZ target shares, and 2.24 YPRR), phenom Marvin Mims (15 percent target, 25 percent RZ target shares, and 4.47 YPRR), Theo Wease (13 percent target share), and Drake Stoops in his arsenal, that should not be a problem. True frosh Seth McGowan hurdled Marcus Major after the first game, and might also jump T.J. Pledger after this week if he continues his superior play.
Chalk: Breece Hall (DK: $7,900 | FD: $9,300), Spencer Rattler (DK: $8,400 | FD: $9,900), Charleston Rambo (DK: $6,600 | FD: $8,600), Marvin Mims (DK: $5,500 | FD: $7,500), Seth McGowan (DK: $5,000 | FD: $7,100)
Cash: Hall and Rattler
Digging Deep: Charlie Kolar (DK: $4,200 | FD: $6,000), T.J. Pledger (DK: $5,400 | FD: $7,700), Drake Stoops (DK: $4,000 | FD: $6,900), and Austin Stogner (DK: $3,500 | FD: $5,800)
On the fence: Brock Purdy (DK: $6,800 | FD: $8,700)
Fade: Iowa State WRs
Devy Talents: Hall, Kolar, Rattler, Rambo, Mims, McGowan, Pledger, Stogner, Tanner Mordecai, Kennedy Brooks, Rhamondre Stevenson, Trejan Bridges, and Jadon Hasselwood
Virginia @ Clemson
Gametime: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Clemson, SC
Betting line: Clemson -28.0
Over/Under: 55.0
We close the slate with a green Virginia squad facing last year’s national runner up in Clemson. To be clear, I love the DFS potential for Brennan Armstrong. He took on a 25 percent carry share against Duke to produce a stellar 11.6 FPs with his legs. He is still a work in progress utilizing his arm, but he can learn on the job while maintaining standalone value. Virginia unveiled their 6-7, 205 pound manchild, Lavel Davis Jr., against Duke. He produced a 4/101/2 line during his debut while placing himself firmly on the Devy radar. Wayne Taulapapa also impressed in his first foray as the lead back. While each of these three individuals have noteworthy outlooks this season, they should all be faded in this spot.
The Clemson offense is dressed to the nines with five-stars tripping over one another. None befitting that description more than Trevor Lawrence. The young man who will be selected No. 1 overall in the 2021 NFL draft, Lawrence personifies a DFS QB with an innate willingness to tuck and run (9.6 FPG on the ground) to go along with a truly elite 13.6 YPA. He’ll feed the rock to Travis Etienne, likely the first RB selected in the draft, and my No. 1 Devy RB. Etienne hasn’t had the opportunity to see a full workload in games against Wake Forest and The Citadel. But he could have that opportunity here in a rematch of the 2019 ACC Championship. The Tigers’ receivers have also fallen prey to positive game scripts. Amari Rodgers and Joseph Ngata will be the first to feed with Braden Galloway and Frank Ladson Jr. following close behind. We simply need to decide if the Cavaliers can make it a game to allow the Clemson talent to cover value.
Chalk: Trevor Lawrence (DK: $8,800 | FD: $10,000), Travis Etienne (DK: $7,300 | FD: $10,200), Amari Rodgers (DK: $6,900 | FD: $8,700), Joseph Ngata (DK: $5,800 | FD: $7,700)
Cash: Etienne
Digging Deep: Braden Galloway (DK: $4,100 | FD: $5,900) and Frank Ladson Jr. (DK: $5,100 | FD: $7,900)
On the fence: Lyn-J Dixon (DK: $4,500 | FD: $5,900)
Fade: Virginia Offense
Devy Talents: Lawrence, D.J. Uiagalelei, Etienne, Dixon, Rodgers, Ngata, Ladson, Ajou Ajou, Justyn Ross, Galloway, and L. Davis
