I know many of you have been itching for some legit betting opportunities…unless you’re a true degenerate and you’ve been gambling on Russian table tennis or Belarusian soccer (if you’ve come up with a winning system please DM me!).
The sports betting community finally has a legit event to wager on with the NFL Draft going virtual for the first time on April 23-25. Unfortunately, I’m being left out in the cold living in Pennsylvania, which doesn’t allow gambling on the draft since it’s not an actual sporting competition. Hopefully, you live in one of the many states with legalized sports betting that are offering lines this weekend.
Since I don’t have access to draft lines in Pennsylvania, I’ll be using off-shore lines for the purposes of this article, which are close to the odds featured at U.S. regulated sportsbooks. If you can, make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if possible. You’re likely to see more volatility between books than you’ll see on game lines during the season.
Top Defensive Players
CHASE YOUNG, DE, OHIO STATE
Latest Mock Drafts
Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): second overall (Redskins), DE1
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): second overall (Redskins), DE1
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): second overall (Redskins), DE1
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Young fits the profile of an elite edge pass-rush prospect with his size/length combination and high-level athleticism. What consistently stood out was Young's elite athletic traits: explosion, lateral agility and quickness, change of direction, flexibility and bend, and closing speed. Young transitions to the NFL as a 4-3 DE with Joker capabilities in sub defenses, but he clearly has the skill set and overall traits to develop into a consistent — and at times dominant — edge pass rusher in sub defenses.
Draft Props to Consider
Young draft position under 2.5 (-600, mybookie.ag) — This is a pretty juicy price if you’re willing to lay a lot to win a little with Young going off the board in the first two picks. Young was typically in the -1500 range to be selected in the first two picks at many of the other sportsbooks I looked at so this price really stands out. Joe Burrow and Young have seemingly been locked into the top-two spots ever since Tua Tagovailoa injured his hip on Nov. 16 last fall, and I would be absolutely be stunned if it doesn’t play out that way on April 23.
JEFF OKUDAH, CB, OHIO STATE
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): third overall (Lions), CB1
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): third overall (Lions), CB1
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): third overall (Lions), CB1
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Okudah possesses the desirable combination of calm easy movement and twitchy explosiveness that allows him to play press-man coverage. Okudah reminded me of Champ Bailey in the way in which he played mirror press-man while also exhibiting the physicality to jam receivers and disrupt routes. Okudah has the size/twitch/speed profile that projects as a high-level corner prospect in the NFL. He showed the needed traits to play press-man coverage and zone coverage and therefore can fit in any defensive or coverage scheme.
Draft Props to Consider
Okudah draft position under 4.5 (-115, betonline.ag) — The Lions have been open to moving the third pick for the right price but, with many questions surrounding Tua Tagovailoa’s health, it seems like that market has dried up a bit. The Lions could be stuck with the third overall pick, and Okudah has long been the favorite to land with the Lions, especially after they traded away top CB Darius Slay to the Eagles this off-season. According to NFL Mock Draft Database, Okudah has been mocked to the Lions 75% while his -115 odds implies he’ll be a top-four pick 53.5% of the time. This wager is likely going to come down to if the Lions trade down or not, and I’m leaning toward the Lions staying at #3 with Tua’s medicals potentially souring the QB market.
ISAIAH SIMMONS, OLB, CLEMSON
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): fourth overall (Giants), LB1
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): 10th overall (Browns), LB1
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): seventh overall (Panthers), LB1
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
My belief is that Simmons transitions best as a safety who can be highly effective playing near the box for a foundational single-high defense or as a cover-4 safety for teams that feature quarters. Many will see him as a weak-side linebacker given his size/length/weight profile. Simmons is at his best as a space and movement player. You want to get him away from the bodies, not align him where the bodies are. Simmons projects as a versatile multi-positional sub-defense defender. Derwin James and Jamal Adams are two players who come to mind when projecting Simmons to the NFL.
Draft Props to Consider
Simmons draft position over 6.5 (+125, mybookie.ag) — The Giants are seemingly deciding between Simmons, Jedrick Wills, and Tristan Wirfs. Both the offensive tackles and Simmons will fill major needs for the Giants, but GM Dave Gettleman appears to be leaning more toward protecting his two franchise players in QB Daniel Jones and RB Saquon Barkley. If the Giants go with Wirfs or Wills and the Lions are unable to trade the third overall pick, I would then expect a QB run with the Dolphins and Chargers likely taking Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa with the fifth and sixth picks. The Giants are the main pivot point for Simmons in the top six unless a team from outside the current top six jumps into the mix. I’m projecting the Giants to take Wirfs so I see a path where Simmons falls outside the top six picks.
DERRICK BROWN, DT, AUBURN
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): seventh overall (Panthers), DT1
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): seventh overall (Panthers), DT1
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): eighth overall (Cards), DT1
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Brown profiles as a high-level prospect with his elite combination of size, power, and strength. What also stood out was his competitiveness and effort making pursuit plays well outside the box. Brown can line up anywhere along the front, including DE, and be a force. Two players came to mind when evaluating Brown: Michael Brockers and Akiem Hicks. Brown is one of the best overall prospects at any position in the 2020 draft class with a chance to become one of the most complete DTs in the NFL with coaching and more development as a pass rusher.
Draft Props to Consider
Brown draft position over 7.5 (-120, bovada.lv) — The Panthers desperately need to upgrade their defensive line and their run defense, and Brown is the type of player that can do it immediately. However, I’m projecting Isaiah Simmons to fall a bit and to be available at the seventh overall pick for the Panthers. Carolina has holes all over their putrid defense, and Simmons is the higher-ceiling pick that the Panthers should consider since they’re in serious rebuilding mode with new HC Matt Rhule. Brown may not fall far with the Cardinals potentially interested in both defensive and offensive line help so be careful not to bet on Brown over 8.5 picks, which are widely available.
C.J. HENDERSON, CB, FLORIDA
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): 17th overall (Cowboys), CB2
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): 16th overall (Falcons), CB2
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): ninth overall (Jaguars), CB2
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Henderson is the prototype outside corner as you project and transition him to the NFL. He has excellent size, length, and smooth high-level athleticism to play both mirror press-man coverage and off coverage in man and zone. Henderson played mirror press-man about as well as you can play it with the needed combination of traits. Henderson is a high-level corner prospect with all the traits and attributes you look for. Corners with his traits profile do not last long in the NFL Draft.
Draft Props to Consider
Henderson draft position under 16.5 (-400, bovada.lv) — I really wanted to give this prop out last week, but the value has been absolutely sucked out of it after NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that the Falcons are looking to move up to potentially select Henderson. Even if the Falcons stay put and draft Henderson, the under will still cash since they pick 16th overall. Our guy Greg Cosell put it best when it came to Henderson: “Corners with his traits profile do not last long in the NFL Draft.” I’d be stunned if Henderson falls into the back half of the first round.
JAVON KINLAW, DT, SOUTH CAROLINA
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): 16th overall (DT2)
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): 15th overall (Broncos), DT2
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): 20th overall (Jaguars), DT2
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
The physical traits and attributes were all there, with his highly desirable combination of size, length, power, quickness, and movement. Yet, he was not a consistently dominant inside defender. Kinlaw has the complete skill set to play in either a 1-gap or 2-gap scheme, but he was at his best as a power/leverage player. The question with Kinlaw will be whether he can be a strong inside pass rusher, and therefore be a factor in sub fronts and on 3rd down. He did not show the twitchy and sudden pass rush explosiveness you see from an Aaron Donald, but rather he was methodically powerful and explosive.
Draft Props to Consider
Kinlaw draft position over 13.5 (-110, betonline.ag) — I’m projecting top DT Derrick Brown to potentially slide a bit in the draft, which could have ripple effects for Kinlaw. It looks like CB C.J. Henderson is on the rise into the top half of the draft heading into this weekend, and the Broncos could be looking to move up a few picks to draft a WR. I’m expecting to see some offensive tackles and wide receivers going off the board between picks 8-13. The 49ers could pick Kinlaw to be their DeForest Buckner replacement, but I think there’s a much better chance that Kinlaw could be on the outside looking in when it comes to the top 13 picks.
Individual Team Wagers to Consider
NEW YORK GIANTS
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): LB Isaiah Simmons (fourth)
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): OT Tristan Wirfs (fourth)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): OT Tristan Wirfs (fourth)
Draft Props to Consider
Tristan Wirfs to the Giants (+275, betonline.ag) — It looked like a two-horse race between Wirfs and LB/S Isaiah Simmons to be the first pick by the Giants just last week. However, Daniel Jeremiah said he’s heard some “whispers” about the Giants having interest in tackle Jedrick Wills, and he shot up to the betting favorite. At least we can still get Wirfs at a pretty juicy plus price with the Giants seemingly deciding between Wirfs, Wills, and Simmons. GM Dave Gettleman is calling the shots, and he’s been the one leading the charge to select an offensive lineman. The Giants have major needs at tackle and LB/S, but Gettleman appears to be leaning more toward protecting his two franchise players in QB Daniel Jones and RB Saquon Barkley. The Giants are in a spot to trade down a couple picks and still get Wirfs or Wills, but the sense of urgency for teams to trade up seems to be waning with Tua Tagovailoa’s medical concerns growing leading up to the draft. Wirfs was the favorite tackle to be selected by the Giants for the last couple weeks, and I’m hoping the recent Wills talk is just another smokescreen being thrown up by the Giants like they did with Justin Herbert. I’ll take the bet that Wirfs is still the guy they’ve wanted all along at an enticing plus price.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): LB Patrick Queen (21st)
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): LB Kenneth Murray (21st)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): LB Kenneth Murray (21st)
Draft Props to Consider
Eagles first pick defensive player (+200, mybookie.ag) — I’m like most people that think the Eagles are going to draft a WR with their first pick — Justin Jefferson has been mocked to Philly a ridiculous 33% of the time in one database. However, we’re getting too big of a plus price on the Eagles selecting a defensive player with their +185 odds implying that the Eagles will go defense just 35.1% of the time. I think it’s much closer to a 50-50 proposition with the Eagles also looking to upgrade at linebacker and cornerback — the three mocks I’ve highlighted have the Eagles drafting a linebacker. As our resident Eagles fan Joe Dolan pointed out, the linebacker talk could be a smokescreen since the Eagles haven’t taken a linebacker in the first round since they took UCLA’s Jerry Robinson in 1979. Even if the linebacker talk is a diversion, the Eagles still have more positions of need on defense compared to their offense. Don’t get me wrong, WR is the Eagles’ biggest overall need and offense should be favored to be the first pick, but I think we’re getting nice value with the defense at such long odds.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): WR Justin Jefferson (22nd)
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): CB Jaylon Johnson (22nd)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): WR Denzel Mims (22nd)
Draft Props to Consider
Vikings first pick offensive player (+125, mybookie.ag) — The Vikings have two major needs at wide receiver and cornerback heading into the 2020 Draft, and most mock drafts have them taking players at those positions at #22 and #25. Let’s try to use some of our fantasy football drafting skills to help us figure out which position they may address first. The Patriots (#23) and the Saints (#24) sit between the Vikings’ two first-round picks, and those teams have more pressing needs at wide receiver than they do at cornerback. If the Vikings are torn between players at each position, it would make sense for the Vikings to grab a WR first so they don’t get sniped by the Patriots or Saints. At +125 odds, the Vikings are implied to pick an offensive player first 44.4% of the time. I think it’s closer to a 50-50 proposition, and I’d actually make the offensive player a small favorite so we’re getting some solid value with this prop.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): RB D’Andre Swift (32nd)
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): C Cesar Ruiz (32nd)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): CB Jaylon Johnson (32nd)
Draft Props to Consider
Chiefs first pick defensive player (-175, betonline.ag) — The Chiefs have a few small holes on offense, but they have more pressing needs on defense. They could certainly look to draft a running back with the last pick in the first round since they don’t completely trust Damien Williams. They could also use some interior offensive line depth after they lost backup-turned-starter Stefan Wisniewski to the Steelers this off-season. But I still think it’s more likely that Andy Reid will address his defense with his first pick since the Chiefs return basically their entire offense, including 10-of-11 starters from the Super Bowl. The Chiefs need some help at all three levels of their defense, especially in their secondary, and it looks like there could be good DB and LB options left at #32 overall. I don’t love the steep -220 price so shop around to see if you can find something under -200 or less.
LOS ANGELES RAMS
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (52nd)
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): N/A (one-round mock)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): WR Tee Higgins (52nd)
Draft Props to Consider
Rams first pick offensive player (+120, bovada.lv) — It’s very likely Sean McVay won’t be drafting in the first round once again for the fourth straight year to start his Rams tenure. The Rams traded away their first-round pick for top CB Jalen Ramsey last season, and they could really use a first-round selection with glaring holes on both sides of the ball. I think their biggest need is their offensive line, specifically along the interior of their O-line. McVay is an offensive coach first and foremost, and this offense fell off their blistering 2018 pace because of an offensive line that fell off a cliff in 2019 — PFF ranked them as the second-worst O-line last season. Jared Goff needs a clean pocket more than most quarterbacks, and McVay’s top priority is to get their $110-million-dollar QB back on track. McShay and Brugler also mocked them to draft running backs and wide receivers so I’ll take the slight underdog in this wager.
