Opening Line Report: Early Week 1 Lines

The NFL schedule started to trickle out in the weeks after the draft before the league revealed the full 2022 schedule on May 12. That also means sportsbooks released their Week 1 opening lines and totals for the weekend of Sept. 8-12. I included my Power Ratings at the bottom of the article if you’re looking to get a better idea of what I think the Week 1 lines should look like — I’ll release my initial Power Ratings article on May 16. It’s time to dive into these matchups to see if there are any lines that we should bet on now or if there are any lines we should hold off betting until closer to the start of the season.

Week 1 Opening Lines

Lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of the morning of May 13.

Buffalo Bills (-1, 51.5) at Los Angeles Rams

The NFL season gets started with a bang with the league’s best team from last season (Bills) squaring off against the team who survived the postseason to hoist the Lombardi Trophy (Rams). The Bills are the favorites to win it all this season and they’re the best team in my Power Ratings, but I have the Rams just a point behind. I would have Los Angeles as short favorites with the Rams getting their rings in front of their home crowd. The Bills will also be breaking in new play-caller Ken Dorsey so I’ll be jumping on the Rams moneyline right out of the gates.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 44.5)

The Bengals arrived in the playoffs a year earlier than expected with Joe Burrow and the Steelers hung on to their postseason lives a year longer than expected with the now-retired Ben Roethlisberger. Both of these teams may have made the playoffs, but the Bengals were clearly the superior team. They outscored the Steelers 65-20 in their two matchups last season and they covered the spreads by a combined 44 points. This spread lines up with my power ratings, but I could see it moving in the Bengals’ favor later this summer with the Steelers starting a new quarterback on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 46) at Detroit Lions

The Eagles throttled the Lions 44-6 as three-point road favorites on Halloween last season, but Detroit still finished with the league’s third-best ATS record at 11-6. I’m optimistic about both of these teams after strong off-seasons, but I’m much more bullish on the Lions than the sportsbooks currently are. I have the Eagles favored by less than a field goal in Detroit so I’m taking the significant line value on the Lions.

Indianapolis Colts (-7.5, 45) at Houston Texans

The Matt Ryan era will get started against an opponent the Colts have absolutely owned in recent seasons, and that’s even when the Texans had Deshaun Watson in the fold. Indy is both 7-1 outright and ATS in its last eight meetings with Houston. The Colts outscored the Texans 62-3 in two games last season while covering the spread by a combined 37.5 points. I have the Colts closer to 5-6 point favorites entering the season, but I’m not sprinting to the window to bet on the Texans in a matchup that gives this franchise absolute fits.

New Orleans Saints (-4, 42.5) at Atlanta Falcons

I have the Falcons power rated as the NFL’s worst team after trading away long-time franchise QB Matt Ryan this off-season. The Falcons finished with a 7-10 record last season but they were one of the league’s most fortunate teams with all seven of their victories coming in one-score contests. This line looks to be in the right spot with the Saints favored by four points, and I can only see myself getting involved with the Saints. It’s probably best to bet them now as I can’t see the Falcons getting much love this summer.

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5, 45.5) at New York Jets

The Ravens had been a strong Week 1 bet under Jim Harbaugh until they lost in overtime to Las Vegas as three-point road favorites last season. Baltimore lost six straight games to end last season while the Jets had one of the best off-seasons of any team, so it wouldn’t be surprising if New York gets some love as the summer moves along. I have the Ravens power rated four-point favorites in this spot so I see some value on the Jets. I’ll be holding off on betting New York until I get a longer look at Zach Wilson or unless this line climbs to +6, which I don’t see happening.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 44.5)

These AFC East foes will meet in September for the fifth straight season. The Dolphins snapped their September losing streak to the Patriots with a 17-16 victory in New England last season. I have the Patriots slightly ahead of the Dolphins in my Power Ratings so I’m seeing a hair of value for New England. I really have no interest in betting this line unless the Patriots start to catch more than a field goal. I’d rather sit back and see what the Dolphins look like with Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill in the picture.

Cleveland Browns (-4, 43) at Carolina Panthers

Deshaun Watson’s status is the big question hanging over this contest with a possible suspension looming. The NFL has yet to make any disciplinary decisions and this line is set more in the neighborhood that he’ll be playing in the season opener. The Browns would go off as less than field-goal favorites if Jacoby Brissett is forced to start Week 1, and the line would drift higher if the NFL gives definitive word that Watson won’t be suspended. I’m also hedging Cleveland’s power rating for now until there’s more of an indication that he’ll be suspended or not.

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 42) at Chicago Bears

The bookmakers, like the fantasy community, were unimpressed by Chicago’s offensive off-season as this game features the lowest total on the board at 42 points. This game is expected to feature two of the 2021 rookie quarterbacks unless Jimmy Garoppolo sticks around to ruin the party for Trey Lance. I have this line more in the five-point range so it’s a bit inflated in the 49ers’ favor. Still, I’m not dying to back the Bears right out of the gates until I see just how bad they are.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders (-4, 44.5)

Washington will be debuting both a new look as the Commanders and a new quarterback in Carson Wentz. Washington fans are also hoping they get a better version of Wentz, and that he won’t see ghosts in the season opener. He melted down in a 15-point loss to the lowly Jaguars in the season finale last season, which effectively ended his tenure with the Colts. The Jaguars didn’t have much to celebrate during Urban Meyer’s lone season, and new HC Doug Pederson will look to quickly change the toxic culture in Jacksonville. I have the Commanders slightly better than field-goal favorites in this contest, but I’ll be keeping my money in my pocket for this one as I learn about these teams in Week 1.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-4, 51.5)

The Raiders and Chargers ended last season with the best game of the 2021 regular season as Las Vegas qualified for the playoffs and it sent Los Angeles to the golf course on a last-second overtime field goal. Both the Raiders (Davante Adams, Chandler Jones) and Chargers (Khalil Mack, J.C. Jackson) made big strides to dethrone the Chiefs at the top of the AFC West (the Broncos did, as well). I’m not seeing much value on either side in this matchup with my power ratings also putting this game in the four-point range.

New York Giants at Tennessee Titans (-6.5, 43.5)

Brian Daboll will make his head-coaching debut for the Giants on the road in Music City while it could be the beginning of the end for Ryan Tannehill with the Titans. Daboll should provide a major upgrade over Joe Judge right out of the gates while the Titans will be starting life without A.J. Brown. I have these teams separated by closer to five points so there’s some value on the Giants’ side. I could see this line tightening up a bit as the summer moves along with the Titans losing momentum in the futures markets so I’m grabbing +6.5 right now.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 52.5) at Arizona Cardinals

We could have some fireworks in the desert as the Chiefs and Cardinals feature the highest total on the board. Both teams will be without their star WRs from 2021 with Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) and DeAndre Hopkins (suspension) out of the picture. This line is sitting in the 2.5-to-3 point range at most books, which is where I have this line power rated. Kliff Kingsbury’s teams have had trouble getting to the finish line throughout his career, but his teams have had no trouble getting out of the gates fast. I’ll likely jump on the Cardinals if this line drifts above a field goal after the initial release of the Week 1 lines.

Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 48.5) at Minnesota Vikings

The NFC North favorites will be squaring off in Minneapolis to open the season for the second time in the last three seasons. The Packers easily covered as one-point road favorites in a 43-34 victory at U.S. Bank Stadium in 2020. I have the Packers favored by two points in this contest so I don’t see much value on the spread, but I’m betting under 49 points at DraftKings. The Packers played at the league’s slowest pace last season and Aaron Rodgers will be breaking in a new receiving corps in one of the league’s more hostile environments. The Vikings spent the off-season building back their once strong defense, and they’ll be debuting Kevin O’Connell’s new offense. I won’t be surprised if this game is lacking in offensive firepower.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 51.5) at Dallas Cowboys

The Buccaneers and Cowboys will open the season for the second straight year after Tampa Bay beat Dallas 31-29 on their Ring Night last year — the Cowboys easily covered the 10-point spread. I’m leaning toward the Dallas side but I won’t be betting on them unless some +3s start to show up. This is a line that is more likely to move in Dallas’ favor if Chris Godwin (ACL) and Rob Gronkowski (retirement?) were to be out of the picture for the season opener.

Denver Broncos (-4.5, 42.5) at Seattle Seahawks

The opening week of the 2022 season will end with Russell Wilson quickly getting his return trip to the Pacific Northwest out of the way. My power ratings have the Broncos as 4-to-4.5 point favorites in this contest so this line looks spot on at the moment. I can’t see the Seahawks getting much sentiment in the markets over the next four months unless they trade for a veteran QB. I’d bet this game now if I’m backing the Broncos and I’d wait it out if you’re siding with the Seahawks.

Brolley’s Best Bets

Los Angeles Rams (-106, FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Bills. Risk 1.06 units at -106 to win one unit.

Detroit Lions (+4.5, FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Risk 1.10 units at -110 to win one unit.

New York Giants (+6.5, DraftKings) vs. Tennessee Titans. Risk one unit at +100 to win one unit.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (under 49, DraftKings). Risk 1.1 units at -110 to win one unit.

Brolley’s Power Ratings

Example: My top-rated team, the Bills (6), would be 11-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Falcons (-5). Using a 1.5-point adjustment for home-field advantage, the Bills would be 12-point favorites over the Falcons at home and eight-point favorites over the Falcons on the road.