My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
Example: My top-rated team, the Packers (7.5), would be 15.5-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Jaguars (-8). Using a 1.5-point adjustment for home-field advantage, the Packers would be 17-point favorites over the Jaguars at home and 14-point favorites over the Jaguars on the road.
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | 2021 Record (ATS) | Ratings Change | Super Bowl LVI Odds |
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 7.5 | 12-3 (11-4) | — | +450 |
| 2. | Kansas City Chiefs | 7 | 11-4 (8-7) | +.5 | +400 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 11-4 (8-7) | — | +750 |
| 4. | Dallas Cowboys | 6.5 | 11-4 (12-3) | +1 | +1000 |
| 5. | Buffalo Bills | 6 | 9-6 (8-6-1) | +1 | +850 |
| 6. | Los Angeles Rams | 6 | 11-4 (8-7) | — | +850 |
| 7. | Indianapolis Colts | 5.5 | 9-6 (10-5) | +.5 | +1600 |
| 8. | New England Patriots | 5 | 9-6 (9-6) | -.5 | +1400 |
| 9. | San Francisco 49ers | 4.5 | 8-7 (7-8) | -.5 | +3500 |
| 10. | Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 10-5 (9-6) | -.5 | +2200 |
| 11. | Los Angeles Chargers | 3.5 | 8-7 (7-8) | -.5 | +5000 |
| 12. | Cincinnati Bengals | 3.5 | 9-6 (8-7) | +.5 | +2800 |
| 13. | Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 8-7 (8-6-1) | +1 | +7000 |
| 14. | Tennessee Titans | 2.5 | 10-5 (9-6) | +1 | +1800 |
| 15. | Baltimore Ravens | 2 | 8-7 (7-8) | -1 | +5000 |
| 16. | Minnesota Vikings | 2 | 7-8 (8-7) | — | +15000 |
| 17. | Miami Dolphins | 1.5 | 8-7 (8-6-1) | +.5 | +13000 |
| 18. | Cleveland Browns | 1 | 7-8 (7-8) | — | +13000 |
| 19. | New Orleans Saints | .5 | 7-8 (6-9) | — | +10000 |
| 20. | Pittsburgh Steelers | -.5 | 7-7-1 (6-9) | -1 | +20000 |
| 21. | Las Vegas Raiders | -.5 | 8-7 (6-9) | — | +15000 |
| 22. | Denver Broncos | -1 | 7-8 (7-8) | -.5 | +50000 |
| 23. | Seattle Seahawks | -1.5 | 5-10 (7-8) | -.5 | — |
| 24. | Washington | -2 | 6-9 (5-10) | -1.5 | +50000 |
| 25. | Atlanta Falcons | -2.5 | 7-8 (7-8) | — | +50000 |
| 26. | Chicago Bears | -3 | 5-10 (6-9) | — | — |
| 27. | Detroit Lions | -4 | 2-12-1 (10-5) | +.5 | — |
| 28. | Carolina Panthers | -5.5 | 5-10 (5-10) | -2 | — |
| 29. | Houston Texans | -6 | 4-11 (7-8) | +1 | — |
| 30. | New York Jets | -6.5 | 4-11 (4-11) | — | — |
| 31. | New York Giants | -7 | 4-11 (6-9) | -1.5 | — |
| 32. | Jacksonville Jaguars | -8 | 2-13 (4-11) | -.5 | — |
Week 17 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Dec. 22.
Kansas City Chiefs (6.5 to 7) — Remember when the Chiefs were left for dead after a 3-4 start to the season? The Chiefs have won eight straight games outright and they’ve covered six straight games ATS, which has put them in position to clinch home-field advantage for a third straight season. They can lock up the AFC bye as early as this week with a victory over the Bengals and a Titans loss to the Dolphins.
Dallas Cowboys (5.5 to 6.5) — The Cowboys locked up the NFC East title before they even took the field in Week 16, and they put an exclamation mark on their title by scoring their most points in a game since 1980 in their 56-14 victory over Washington. Dak saved his best fantasy performance of the season for Week 16, completing 28/39 passes for 330 yards (8.5 YPA) and four TDs for 31.3 FP.
Buffalo Bills (5 to 5.5) — The Bills got their revenge on the Patriots by becoming the first team to not punt against a Bill Belichick-coached team in 474 games, which dates back to 1991 when Belichick took his first head coaching job with the original Browns franchise. Josh Allen carried the Bills to the victory by posting 314/3 passing and 12/64 rushing for 31.0 FP against the Patriots, which is the most FP they’ve allowed to a quarterback this season.
Indianapolis Colts (5 to 5.5) — The Colts have won and covered in three straight games after their big road victory over the Cardinals in Week 16, and all three of those contests went under the total by an average margin of -8.7 points. Carson Wentz completed 18/28 passes for 225 yards (8.0 YPA) and two touchdowns against Arizona, but he still remains a major liability despite his fine numbers in Week 16 after leaving a number of throws on the field.
Cincinnati Bengals (3 to 3.5) — Joe Burrow broke Boomer Esiason’s franchise record for passing yards in a game (490, 1990) with 525 yards against the Ravens, which ranks him fourth in NFL history behind only Warren Moon (527, 1990), Matt Schaub (527, 2012), and Norm Van Brocklin (554, 1951). Burrow absolutely shredded a depleted Ravens’ secondary by averaging 11.4 YPA with four touchdowns and no INTs.
Philadelphia Eagles (2 to 3) — The Eagles own a 5-1 outright record and 4-1-1 ATS mark in their last six games, and they’re winning in style with all five victories coming by double digits. Philadelphia failed to reach 175+ rushing yards last week for the first time since they first went with their run-heavy approach against the Lions in Week 8, but they still beat the hapless Giants by 24 points.
Tennessee Titans (1.5 to 2.5) — What a difference one receiver can make for an entire offense. A.J. Brown didn’t skip a beat in his return to action after a month-long absence for a chest injury, and he took this struggling Titans’ offense on his broad shoulders. He demonstrated why he was a second-round fantasy pick this summer with 11/145/1 receiving on a ridiculous 55% target share (16) to carry the Titans to a victory over the 49ers in Week 16, which all but wrapped up the AFC South title.
Miami Dolphins (1 to 1.5) — The Dolphins control their own destiny to make the playoffs after vaulting into the No. 7 spot with a victory over the Saints on Monday Night Football in Week 16. They’re one of the hottest teams in the league with a seven-game winning streak and a 6-1 ATS mark heading into their final two games of the season against the Titans and Patriots.
Detroit Lions (-4.5 to -4) — HC Dan Campbell certainly has his players competing to the end of the season despite owning just two victories, as they own the third-best ATS record in the league at 10-5. The Lions have covered in six of their seven contests since their Week 9 bye. Rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown is in the midst of a full-blown breakout the last month with another 9/91/1 receiving on 11 targets last week against the Falcons. He’s now posted 8+ catches, 70+ yards, and 11+ targets in four consecutive games.
Houston Texans (-7 to -6) — One of the bigger surprises in the second half of the season is that Davis Mills, a 2021 third-round pick, has looked more like a first-round pick than some of his contemporaries from this year’s QB class. The Texans stunned the Chargers in Week 16 thanks to another excellent performance from Mills. He completed 21/27 passes for 254 yards and two TDs even without his lone standout skill player, Brandin Cooks. Mills is quickly earning the Texans’ starting job in 2022 with a strong finishing kick to the season — the 2022 QB class is looking weak right now.
Week 17 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Dec. 22.
New England Patriots (5.5 to 5) — New England has dropped consecutive games outright and ATS after running off seven straight wins and covers in Weeks 7-13. The Patriots have given up 60 combined points in consecutive games against the Colts and Bills after giving up 60 combined points in their previous six games. The Bills became the first team to not punt against a Bill Belichick-coached team in 474 games, which dates back to 1991 when he took his first head coaching job with the original Browns franchise.
San Francisco 49ers (5 to 4.5) — The 49ers got the full Jimmy Garoppolo experience in Week 16 with the quarterback throwing for 300+ yards and averaging 8.7 YPA against the Titans. But it was his two ugly, back-breaking interceptions — one at the goal line and one deep in his own territory — that led to their loss and reminded the 49ers why they drafted Trey Lance with the third overall pick. San Francisco has arguably the league’s most dynamic game-breakers at receiver and a championship-caliber front seven on defense, but this team’s upside continues to be capped by Jimmy G limitations as a between-the-hashes passer.
Arizona Cardinals (4.5 to 4) — The Cardinals own a 3-5 record since Week 8 after opening the year with seven straight victories, and Arizona has lost three straight games outright and ATS to fall out of first place in the NFC West. Kyler Murray got home for fantasy with 21.9 FP thanks to 74 rushing yards, but he’s averaging just 6.0 YPA in his last two games and he’s accounted for one or fewer touchdowns in four of his last five games.
Los Angeles Chargers (4 to 3.5) — The Chargers have no one to blame but themselves if they miss the playoffs after losing 41-29 to the lowly Texans as 13.5-point road favorites. The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, including 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
Baltimore Ravens (3 to 2) — ​​Joe Burrow shredded this Ravens’ secondary for 525/4 passing and 11.4 YPA, which was the fourth-most passing yards by a quarterback in a single game. Aaron Rodgers went for 268/3 passing against them in Week 15 and there’s no end to the bleeding in sight with Matthew Stafford coming to town. They also lost one of its top remaining CBs, Anthony Averett, to a rib injury.
Pittsburgh Steelers (.5 to -.5) — Pittsburgh technically still has a playoff pulse, but this offense has looked dead for most of the season. ​The Steelers became the first team in NFL history to trail by 23+ points at halftime in three straight road games, and they failed to score a touchdown in the first half of five straight games for the first time in the Super Bowl era (per the Associated Press).
Denver Broncos (-.5 to -1) — The Broncos are back to square one heading into the off-season once again after being just about eliminated from postseason contention for the sixth straight season since Peyton Manning guided them to the Super Bowl in 2015. They managed to squeeze off just 40 plays for a miserable 158 yards (4.0 YPP) with Drew Lock taking over the offense in a loss to the Raiders in Week 16.
Washington Football Team (-.5 to -2) — Washington is leaking oil to the finish line after allowing its most points since 2010 in a 56-14 loss to the Cowboys — the result was the most-lopsided loss for either team in 124 meetings. Washington’s quarterback play has been so bad in recent weeks that Terry McLaurin is a droppable player. He’s failed to reach double-digit FP in five straight games and in 8-of-15 contests this season after posting 3/40 receiving on six targets last week.
Seattle Seahawks (-1 to -1.5) — The Seahawks are still receiving an odd amount of respect from the betting markets despite their 2-5 ATS mark since Russell Wilson returned to the lineup. Wilson is averaging just 6.6 YPA and 206.1 passing yards per game with eight TDs and four INTs since coming back seven games ago. The Seahawks fell to 5-10 overall, which means the franchise lost double-digit games for the first time in the Pete Carroll era and for the first time since Jim Mora went 5-11 in 2009.
Carolina Panthers (-3.5 to -5.5) — Cam Newton has now lost 13 straight games as Carolina’s starting quarterback dating back to 2018, and he’s yet to cover a spread in five starts this season. Newton is averaging 5.5 YPA while completing 54.1% of his passes in his five starts, and Sam Darnold didn’t show much improvement as he rotated in with Cam in Week 16. He hasn’t averaged more than 6.0 YPA in each of his last six appearances and he hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in four consecutive games.
New York Giants (-5.5 to -7) —Daniel Jones was hardly lighting it up through 11 games, but this offense has gotten dramatically worse since he left the keys to Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm. The two quarterbacks combined to throw for 118 yards on 44 attempts for a miserable 2.7 YPA last week, The Giants somehow failed to reach 200+ yards despite running 73 plays against the Eagles — they averaged 2.6 yards per play.
