My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
Example: My top-rated team, the Packers (7.5), would be 15-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Jaguars (-8). Using a 1.5-point adjustment for home-field advantage, the Buccaneers would be 16.5-point favorites over the Jaguars at home and 13.5-point favorites over the Jaguars on the road.
|Rank||Team||Power Rating||2021 Record (ATS)||Ratings Change||Super Bowl LVI Odds|
|1.||Green Bay Packers||7.5||11-3 (11-3)||—||+450|
|2.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||7||10-4 (7-7)||-.5||+650|
|3.||Kansas City Chiefs||6.5||10-4 (7-7)||—||+450|
|4.||Los Angeles Rams||6||10-4 (7-7)||+.5||+1000|
|5.||Dallas Cowboys||5.5||10-4 (11-3)||—||+1200|
|6.||New England Patriots||5.5||9-5 (9-5)||-.5||+900|
|7.||San Francisco 49ers||5||8-6 (7-7)||+.5||+3000|
|8.||Indianapolis Colts||5||8-6 (9-5)||+.5||+1600|
|9.||Buffalo Bills||5||8-6 (7-6-1)||—||+1000|
|10.||Arizona Cardinals||4.5||10-4 (9-5)||-1||+1800|
|11.||Los Angeles Chargers||4||8-6 (7-7)||—||+3000|
|12.||Baltimore Ravens||3.5||8-6 (7-7)||—||+3500|
|13.||Cincinnati Bengals||3||8-6 (7-7)||+.5||+3500|
|14.||Minnesota Vikings||2||7-7 (8-6)||—||+8000|
|15.||Philadelphia Eagles||2||7-7 (7-6-1)||—||+8000|
|16.||Tennessee Titans||1.5||9-5 (8-6)||-.5||+2500|
|17.||Cleveland Browns||1.5||7-7 (6-8)||—||+10000|
|18.||New Orleans Saints||1||7-7 (6-8)||+.5||+10000|
|19.||Miami Dolphins||1||7-7 (7-6-1)||—||+20000|
|20.||Pittsburgh Steelers||.5||7-6-1 (6-8)||—||+15000|
|21.||Denver Broncos||0||7-7 (7-7)||—||+20000|
|23.||Seattle Seahawks||-1||5-9 (7-7)||—||+20000|
|24.||Las Vegas Raiders||-1.5||7-7 (5-9)||—||+20000|
|25.||Atlanta Falcons||-2.5||6-8 (6-8)||-.5||+50000|
|26.||Chicago Bears||-3||4-10 (5-9)||—||—|
|27.||Carolina Panthers||-3||5-9 (5-9)||-.5||+100000|
|28.||Detroit Lions||-4.5||2-11-1 (9-5)||+1||—|
|29.||New York Giants||-5.5||4-10 (6-8)||-1||+100000|
|30.||New York Jets||-6.5||3-11 (3-11)||—||—|
|31.||Houston Texans||-7||3-11 (6-8)||+1||—|
|32.||Jacksonville Jaguars||-7.5||2-12 (4-10)||-.5||—|
Week 16 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Dec. 15.
Los Angeles Rams (5.5 to 6) — Cooper Kupp is three games away from joining the receiving Triple Crown club after posting 9/136/2 receiving against the Seahawks in Week 15. He’s easily pacing the league in receptions (122), receiving yards (1625), and receiving TDs (14). Shocker, but Jerry Rice is the first player to do it in the modern era with 100/1502/13 receiving in 1990, and he also owns the career receiving Triple Crown with 1549/22,895/197 receiving. Sterling Sharpe followed Rice in 1992 with 108/1461/13 receiving, and Steve Smith is the last player to do it 16 years ago with 103/1563/12 receiving in 2005.
Indianapolis Colts (4.5 to 5) — The Colts are riding high after knocking off the hottest team in the league in Week 15. Indy has won five of six games outright and they’re 3-1 ATS in their last four games after knocking off the Patriots by 10 points as short home favorites. On the downside, they completely hid Carson Wentz in the victory as he completed 5/12 passes for just 57 yards (4.8 YPA), one TD, and one INT.
San Francisco 49ers (4.5 to 5) — San Francisco’s offense is firing on all cylinders over the last six games, averaging 29.2 points per game in that span, which has resulted in a 5-1 ATS run. George Kittle has been a major reason for their offensive surge since he returned to the lineup in Week 9, averaging 6.3/89.0 receiving per game with six TDs to rank as the TE1 with 20.3 FPG.
Cincinnati Bengals (2.5 to 3) — The Bengals can smell blood in the water in the AFC North. They’re looking to finish off a reeling Ravens’ squad this week that’s dropped three straight games by a combined four points, and they already cleaned up on the Steelers twice this season. The Bengals averaged just 4.9 yards per play against the Broncos last week, but they limited the Broncos just 4.1 YPP and 10 points to grab a pivotal road victory as three-point road underdogs.
New Orleans Saints (.5 to 1) — The Saints produced the defensive performance of the season to date by shutting out Tampa Bay’s potent offense, which was just the third time a Tom Brady-led offense failed to score and the first since 2006. For as well as New Orleans’ defense played, their offense was equally as bad, averaging a miserable 3.5 yards per play while failing to score a touchdown. Alvin Kamara finished with a miserable 11/18 rushing and 2/13 receiving on six targets in the victory.
Detroit Lions (-5.5 to -4.5) — Break up the Lions! They’re 2-3-1 outright since their Week 9 bye, and their only ATS loss in that span came against Denver two weeks ago when they were severely undermanned because of flu and COVID issues. Jared Goff is heating up with multiple TD passes in three of his last four games, and he’s averaging 6.9 YPA and completing 69.5% of his passes after averaging 6.3 YPA and completing 66.1% of his passes in the first nine weeks.
Houston Texans (-8 to -7) — Davis Mills outdueled #1 overall pick, Trevor Lawrence, for a victory in Week 15, and the third-round pick has actually looked more like a first-round pick than some of his contemporaries from the 2021 QB class. He completed 19/30 passes for 209 yards (7.0 YPA), two TDs, and one INT in Houston’s victory over the Texans in Week 15. He could earn himself a starting job in 2022 with a strong finishing kick — next year’s QB class is looking weak right now.
Week 16 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Dec. 15.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7.5 to 7) — A Tom Brady-led offense got shut out last week for just the third time in his career and for the first time since 2006. Brady posted season-lows in YPA (4.5) and in passer rating (57.1), but he played severely undermanned with Mike Evans (hamstring) and Leonard Fournette (hamstring) both leaving. The biggest injury of the night came when Chris Godwin tore his ACL on a low hit, which is a major blow for this offense moving forward.
New England Patriots (6 to 5.5) — The Patriots had their seven-game outright and ATS winning streak snapped in Week 15 in their 10-point loss to the Colts. Rhamondre Stevenson (10/36 rushing) and Brandon Bolden (4/3) couldn’t get going in the run game with Damien Harris out of the lineup with a hamstring injury, but Mac Jones made it interesting late in the game after the Patriots fell behind by 20 points early in the third quarter.
Arizona Cardinals (5.5 to 4.5) — Arizona is coming off two consecutive humbling losses, including last week’s 30-12 defeat to the Lions as 13-point road favorites. The Cardinals dropped five of their final seven games to miss the playoffs in 2020, and they’re giving off similar vibes this season with a 3-4 stretch after opening the season with seven consecutive wins.
Tennessee Titans (2 to 1.5) — The Titans have lost the turnover battle by four takeaways or more in three of their last five games after dropping a 19-13 decision to the Steelers in Week 15. The Titans outgained the Steelers by 166 yards on the ground last week (201 to 35) and they ran 33 more plays (78 to 45), but they lost the turnover margin 4-to-0 in the loss.
Atlanta Falcons (-2 to -2.5) — The Falcons had a miserable time trying to score from in tight against the 49ers last week, failing to find paydirt on 13 plays from inside the 10-yard, including five tries from the 1-yard line. Cordarrelle Patterson had his worst game of the season, managing just 11/18 rushing and 2/5 receiving for 4.3 FP but at least he saw a four-week high 62% of the snaps.
Carolina Panthers (-.2.5 to -3) — Bill Belichick’s best coaching job may have been getting the Patriots to seven wins last year with Cam Newton at quarterback. Cam has now lost 12 straight games as Carolina’s starting quarterback dating back to 2018, and he’s yet to cover a spread in four starts this season.
New York Giants (-4.5 to -5.5) — New York locked up its fifth straight season with double-digit losses and its seventh such campaign in the last eight years. The Giants’ offense is in a complete freefall since Daniel Jones (neck) left the lineup in Week 12, and it’s gotten so bad that they’re handing the keys to the offense to Jake Fromm. He can’t be much worse than Mike Glennon, who averaged 159.0 passing yards per game and 4.6 YPA with two TDs and five INTs in three starts.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7 to -7.5) — The Jaguars didn’t get a post-Urban Meyer bump like many thought they would with the Jaguars moving from three- to five-point favorites against the Texans. It’s so bad for Jacksonville’s offense right now that their 16 points in Week 15 represented the most points they’ve scored in more than a month.