Week 1 MKF Picks


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Week 1 MKF Picks

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Thursday Night Football

I’ll be playing MKF’s MORE or LESS for Thursday Night Football. And I’m keeping it quite simple! I’m going against the grain here and against our projections when it comes to Passing Yards for Tom Brady and Dak Prescott, but think that Dallas’ defense will let TB12 shred them, and believe Dak will dazzle in his return as he tries to keep up. Mind you, Prescott is sure to sustain some sacks, but still think he’ll rack up the yards. Therefore, I’m going with Tom Brady MORE than 304.5 passing yards, and Dak Prescott MORE than 290.5 passing yards. - Ben Kukainis

I’m taking a MORE or LESS play too for this tilt. While I looked at the passing yardage game, I thought both players were lined a little too high for my liking… but not high enough for me to play the contest. So I checked out a rushing yardage contest I liked. While I expect this will be a difficult go of it for the Cowboys without G Zack Martin, I think Zeke will get the ball enough that going over 62.5 rushing yards is doable, even if inefficient. (We have him projected for 69.) Meanwhile, I don’t trust any back for Tampa, and 50.5 rushing yards is too high for Ronald Jones given he’s part of a three-man rotation and I think Tampa will attack through the air anyway. I took Zeke Elliott MORE than 62.5 rushing yards, and Ronald Jones LESS than 50.5 rushing yards for an expected return of 3.6X. — Joe Dolan

College Football Saturday

This is a fairly week schedule by college standards, so difficult decisions abound. The biggest game of the week is probably Oregon @ Ohio State. I like CJ Verdell (ORE) over 70.5 rushing yards against a Buckeye defense that gave up over 200 yards on the ground to Minnesota in week 1. Likewise, I like opposing starter Miyan Williams (OSU) over 65.5 rush yards.

With Tiyon Evans rumored to miss this week’s action for Tennessee, RB Jabari Small (TEN) O 85.5 rushing yards also feels like a safe bet. That Pitt defense is not as strong as last year, and Tennessee showed they can run the ball in their opener against Bowling Green. I also like Rodney Hammond (PIT) under 43.5 rush yards in that one, as the rotation at Pitt should limit his opportunities.

NC State visits Mississippi St. in week 2, with both teams coming off solid performances in week 1. Emeka Emezie (NCST) over 65.5 receiving yards feels pretty solid, as the Miss St. has been a weak unit over the past year or so. I’d be comfortable pairing that with Jaden Walley (MSST) over 62.5 receiving yards for a 3X win. Devin Leary over 230.5 passing yards also feels like a line that should be higher and can be paired with Will Rogers (MSST) over 235.5 passing yards. If Miss. St. plays well, it means the pass offense exploded. If they don’t, the positive game script should play to your advantage.

The final play of the week is in the Texas @ Arkansas game. I like Bijan Robinson over 105.5 rushing yards and Trelon Smith under 100.5 rushing yards. Longhorn Head Coach Steve Sarkisian has stated all offseason that he wants to get Robinson involved and he did not disappoint in that regard in week 1. Smith is a solid back, but I struggle to see him rush for over 100 with much frequency in 2021.

- Austin Nace, Campus2Canton

I’m pumped for the Pittsburgh versus Tennessee matchup on Saturday as both teams combined for 174 plays last week in blowout victories. The prop sticking out to me here is the more or less receiving yards for Velus Jones (Tennessee) and Lucas Krull (Pittsburgh). I like Velus Jones less than 70.5 receiving yards and Lucas Krull more than 55.5 receiving yards. Jones had one target last game, finishing with no receiving yards. Krull had 58 yards receiving yards last game and I expect him to exceed that as a critical piece of a Pittsburgh passing attack that threw the ball 45 times in a blowout win last week. -Josh Chevalier

Sunday Football

I’ll be playing a MKF MORE or LESS involving DeAndre Hopkins vs. TEN and Justin Jefferson vs. CIN for an option under the slates for the early games. The additions of Rondale Moore and AJ Green may bump Hopkins’ slight dip in the average depth of his throw last season, and with the Tennessee Titans as the matchup who gave up the 4th most receiving yards in 2020, I like Hopkins’ odds to have some nice yardage in this one. Hopkins had seven games above 100 receiving yards last season. Justin Jefferson torched some weaker defenses in 2020 with receiving yards like TEN (175), ATL (166), JAX (121) and DET (133), so I expect a game with a lot of yards against the Bengals on Sunday who will be pass heavy themselves. Give me DeAndre Hopkins MORE than 85.5 receiving yards and Justin Jefferson MORE than 80.5 receiving yards.

Another MKF MORE or LESS I am playing is within the Eagles and Falcons game. Calvin Ridley is the clear-cut WR1, and my current fantasy WR4 in fantasy for this year. 8 games above 100 receiving yards, 8 games w/ 10+ targets and the mark we are looking for (19.5 fantasy points) he was above 6 times in 2020.The Eagles secondary gives the opportunity for big game 1. The Falcons were solid against the run last season, and in a game where the Falcons will be pass-heavy I think Miles Sanders can be limited in total volume (rushes + catches). The addition of pass-catching RB Kenny Gainwell and Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, along with TE’s Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz both healthy, I doubt Sanders will have passing importance. Looking at 13.5 fantasy points, Sanders was AT or BELOW that mark in 7/12 healthy games in 2020. I’ll take Calvin Ridley MORE than 19.5 fantasy points and Miles Sanders LESS than 13.5 fantasy points.

  • Nick Skrip

Monday Football