Player Props Record: 73-45 (62%) Last Week: 2-2 (50%)
We have been treading water the last couple of weeks as Covid and injuries have made things more challenging. Week 18, of course, adds playing time issues to the mix but we feel like we have a good grasp on who is likely to play a full game and who isn’t and we could actually use that to our advantage.
Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.
Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Week 18 followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.
Tom Brady vs. CAR
This may be the biggest discrepancy we’ve seen all year. Brady threw for just 232 yards against the Panthers two weeks ago and it's not a lock that Brady plays the entire game this week. The Bucs could move up from the #3 seed to the #2 seed if they win and Rams lose so the Bucs may be doing some scoreboard watching. The line on this game has shifted dramatically from TB -16.5 to TB -8 indicating the oddsmakers aren’t sure about Brady’s playing time either.
Justin Jackson @ LV
|J. JACKSON||OVER 23.5||21.5||-115||DK|
Jackson has topped this number in four straight. He did nothing in this matchup earlier in the year but he's earned a larger role late in the season. The Raiders are allowing the 3rd-most FP to RBs over the last four weeks. The Chargers will give Austin Ekeler a lot of work but there should be enough meat on the bone left for Jackson to win this prop.
Darnell Mooney @ MIN
It’s been hit and miss this year with Mooney props but he’s now gone over this number in three straight - including against the Vikings three weeks ago. He needs 71 yards to reach 1000 for the season which could be a little added incentive for the Bears to get him involved early. The Vikings are allowing the 3rd-most FP to WRs the last four weeks.
Josh Palmer @ LV
Palmer has gone way over this number in three of his last four games. While the Raiders haven’t been giving up much production to WRs and he is sharing the #3 WR role with Jalen Guyton, all we need is two grabs to punch this ticket as a winner. Palmer also has the largest receiving yards discrepancy on the board this week.
Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for Week 18. Happy Wagering!
|BRADY||PASS YDS||UNDER 291.5||71.5||-125||MGM|
|J. JACKSON||RUSH YDS||OVER 23.5||21.5||-115||DK|
|J. PALMER||REC YDS||OVER 19.5||22.5||-115||MGM|
|PITTS||REC YDS||UNDER 61.5||21.5||-115||DK|
|BATEMAN||REC YDS||OVER 30.5||20.5||-114||FD|
|MOONEY||REC YDS||OVER 54.5||18.5||-115||MGM|
|AIYUK||REC YDS||OVER 43.5||15.5||-105||CAESARS|
|PRINGLE||REC YDS||OVER 29.5||15.5||-110||FD|
|SUTTON||REC YDS||OVER 29.5||15.5||-115||MGM|
|V. JEFFERSON||REC YDS||OVER 39.5||15.5||-125||CAESARS|
|K. ALLEN||RECEPTIONS||UNDER 6.5||1.5||112||FD|
|J. PALMER||RECEPTIONS||OVER 1.5||1.5||-140||DK|