Paul Kelly's Week 17 Props

Player Props Record: 71-43 (62%) Last Week: 3-2 (60%)

We started last week at 3-0 but lost a couple of prime time props bringing us back down to 60%, which is of course still pretty damn good. Covid and injuries continue to wreak havoc around the NFL but there are still investing opportunities to be had in the player prop market.

Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.

Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Week 17 followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.

Ronald Jones @ NYJ

Jones failed to hit this number last week but he did get 20 carries and should be in a position to do so again this week as the Bucs are 13-point road favorites, and the Jets are facing the second-most carries per game (26.1) from RBs. While I don’t love Jones, the Jets have been a great matchup for backs all year and 21.5 yards is a large enough discrepancy to feel good about.

A.J. BROWN vs. MIA

Brown looked like a man among boys last week posting 11/145/1 receiving on a ridiculous 55% target share against the 49ers. He will see a bunch of CB Xavien Howard who has been balling but Brown should get the targets he needs to go over 71 yards with few options to throw to for Titans QB Ryan Tannehill. Taking the over 5.5 catches is also an attractive play.

Davante Adams vs. MIN

It’s unusual to see a discrepancy this large for an elite producer like Adams. He posted 7/115/2 receiving on eight targets against the Vikings in Week 11 and has now gone over 100 yards in four of his last five in this matchup as well as in four of his last five this season. Just hope the Sean Mannion-led Vikings can score a few points to keep the Packers throwing.

GERALD EVERETT vs. DET

Could be another snowy game in Seattle this week but the snow didn’t stop Everett from posting his best performance of the season last week with 4/68/1 receiving on five targets against the Bears. He is on a bit of a roll with 60+ yards in back-to-back games and the Lions have allowed seven different TEs to reach 40+ receiving yards against them in their last six games.

Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for Week 17. Happy Wagering!