Regular Season Player Props Record: 75-47 (61%) Last Week: 2-2 (50%)
We have been stuck at 50% winners the last couple of weeks. Not a disaster but we’ve certainly become accustomed to doing much better this season. There are actually more discrepancies I feel good about this week than last week so let’s get to it!
Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.
Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for the divisional round followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.
Devin Singletary @ KC
Singletary has now run for at least 80 yards in three straight games. Zack Moss was the lead back for the Bills in this matchup back in Week 5 and ran for 92 yards. That's Singletary's role now and it's fair to expect similar success.
A.J. Dillon vs. SF
Dillon only carried six times against the 49ers in Week 3 but has since earned a larger role in the Packers offense. He's logged 14 carries in back-to-back games and with the Packers favored by 5.5 points and playing in frigid temperatures he should see double digit carries again this week.
Davante Adams vs. SF
Adams has gone over this number in five of his last six full games. I love finding large discrepancies for elite players and that’s exactly what we have here. Adams roasted the 49ers for 12/132/1 receiving on 18 targets back in Week 3. Going over 7.5 catches is a viable play as well.
Ja’Marr Chase @ TEN
No receiver in football is hotter than Chase who has topped this number in each of his last three full games and has averaged 169 yards per game in those contests. The Titans allowed the 2nd-most FP to WRs this season and based on what we saw last week, the Bengals will go out of their way to get the football into the hands of their most explosive player.
George Kittle @ GB
It’s certainly tough to back Kittle after his miniscule numbers the last few weeks but we feel good about him being more involved this week in what may be a negative game script for the 49ers (+5.5). Kittle had success in this matchup back in Week 3 including 92 receiving yards and this is the biggest discrepancy on the board this week. We’re seeing the number move up a couple of yards at some books but I still feel good about it. Taking over 4.5 catches is viable as well.
Tyler Boyd @ TEN
We got burned by Boyd last week as he fell short of his yardage number yet he remains very involved in the Bengals offense. He has topped this catch number in five of his last six games and this matchup against the Titans should have QB Joe Burrow throwing plenty. Per our guy Tom Brolley, slot receiver Danny Amendola ripped the Titans for 7/113/2 receiving in the season finale, and they allowed the second-most catches per game (14.6) to WRS on the season.
Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for the divisional round. Happy Wagering!
|SINGLETARY||RUSH YDS||OVER 60.5||15.5||-110||MGM|
|DILLON||RUSH ATTS||OVER 9.5||3.5||-145||DK|
|ADAMS||REC YDS||OVER 92.5||17.5||-113||FD|
|KITTLE||REC YDS||OVER 49.5||24.5||-115||MGM|
|CHASE||REC YDS||OVER 77.5||17.5||-115||FD|