Week 9 Sunday Trends and Picks

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Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Player Props

• Christian McCaffrey (Car) over 87.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Kyler Murray (Ari) over 40.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Cole Beasley (Buf) over 4.5 receptions (+105, DraftKings)

• Tyler Lockett (Sea) over 69.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

• J.D. McKissic (Was) over 2.5 receptions (+115, BetMGM)

• CeeDee Lamb (Dal) over 3.5 receptions (+115, BetMGM)

• Ben Roethlisberger (Pit) under 36.5 attempts (-110, BetMGM)

• Lamar Jackson (Bal) over .5 interceptions (+110, DraftKings)

• Jerry Jeudy (Den) over 47.5 receiving yards (-112, BetMGM)

• Mike Williams (LAC) over 40.5 receiving yards (-112, BetMGM)

• Alvin Kamara (NO) over 5.5 receptions (+107, DraftKings)

• Scotty Miller (TB) under 29.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

Early Afternoon Games

Baltimore Ravens (5-2, 3-4 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (5-2, 4-3), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Ravens 24.75, Colts 23.25

• Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 1.5, 44.5 to 48

• Weather: Dome

• Ravens Injuries to Watch: LT Ronnie Stanley (ankle, IR), RB Mark Ingram (ankle), CB Marlon Humphrey (COVID-19, out), RG Tyre Philips (ankle)

• Ravens COVID-19 Watch List: LB Matthew Judon, S DeShon Elliott, LB Patrick Queen, LB L.J. Fort, LB Malik Harrison, CB Terrell Bonds, LB Tyus Bowser

• Colts Injuries to Watch: WR T.Y. Hilton (groin), TE Mo Alie-Cox (knee), CB Rock Ya-Sin (concussion), WR Marcus Johnson (knee), WR Ashton Dulin (knee)

Ravens Trends

• The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

• Lamar Jackson dug the Ravens a hole with a pick-six on Baltimore’s opening drive of Week 8, and the Ravens passing attack never really got on track after that in their loss to the division-rival Steelers. He completed just 13/28 passes (46.4%) for 208 yards, two TDs, and two INTs and he added 16/65 rushing with two lost fumbles. Lamar has now failed to top 210 passing yards in six straight games, and he has 18 or fewer FP in four of his six games in that span. Jackson’s job is also going to get a little tougher moving forward after LT Ronnie Stanley suffered a season-ending ankle injury. The Colts are allowing the fewest FPG to QBs (17.8) but Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow have each thrown for 300+ yards in their last two games.

• Jackson and OC Greg Roman haven’t done a good enough job of getting the rock into their best playmakers’ hands in Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. Brown saw just two targets in Week 8, which he turned into a three-yard touchdown catch. Brown played on 94% of the snaps in Week 8 but he owned just a 7.1% target share with Lamar failing to target him outside of consecutive end-zone targets in the fourth quarter. Brown could get the squeaky-wheel treatment this week, and speedster Marvin Hall did burn them for 4/113 receiving last week.

• Andrews has fallen below 35 receiving yards in four of his seven games this season, and he’s topped out at six targets in five of his seven games. The Colts are giving up the fewest FPG to TEs (7.24) but T.J. Hockenson did have 7/65 receiving.

• The Ravens handed the reins to this backfield to J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards in Week 8 with Mark Ingram (ankle) out of the lineup. Justice Hill played just two snaps, leaving Dobbins (66% snap share) and Edwards (32% share) to do the heavy lifting for the backfield. Dobbins took advantage of his bigger role, posting 15/113 rushing and 1/8 receiving on two targets against the Steelers while Edwards also came through with 16/87/1 rushing. Dobbins is now leading the league with 6.7 YPC and yards after contact with 4.2 yards. The Colts limited the Lions running backs to just eight rushing yards on 11 carries for a meager .7 YPC average.

Colts Trends

• The Colts are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as an underdog.

• Jonathan Taylor was ineffective coming out of his bye week, carrying 11 times for 22 yards (2.0 YPC). HC Frank Reich primarily rode the hot-hand of Jordan Wilkins, who led the backfield with 20/89/1 rushing against the Lions. Nyheim Hines also hit double-digit fantasy production for the first time since Week 3 by posting 3/54/2 receiving against Detroit. Taylor is dealing with a bit of an ankle injury this week, but he still likely get the first crack again this week with Reich using the hot-hand approach for the time being. The Ravens are giving up the fourth-fewest FPG to RBs (19.8) this season.

• Philip Rivers threw for 262 yards and three touchdowns against the Lions last week, giving him 22+ FP in consecutive games. Another old man, Ben Roethlisberger, could only muster 182/2 passing against the Ravens last week.

• With T.Y. Hilton leaving early with a groin injury last week, Zach Pascal ran a route on 91.4% of Rivers’ dropbacks followed by Marcus Johnson (68.6%) and Michael Pittman (57.1%). Hines is actually leading the Colts with 26 catches and Indy WRs have just two touchdowns this season. The Ravens are allowing the ninth-fewest FPG to WRs this season (33.9).

• The Colts are splitting up the work at tight end among Trey Burton, Jack Doyle, and a once-again healthy Mo Alie-Cox. Burton led this group in catches (3), targets (4), and routes run (15) last week, but he turned those looks into just nine receiving yards. Luckily, he scored a rushing touchdown for the second straight game lined up as a Wildcat QB, which isn’t that unfamiliar for him since he played quarterback at Florida during his college career. The Ravens allowed the third-best TE performance to Eric Ebron last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (Best Bet)

Lamar Jackson (Bal) over .5 interceptions (Best Bet)

Seattle Seahawks (6-1, 5-2 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (6-2, 3-5), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Seahawks 29, Bills 26
• Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to 3, 51.5 to 55
• Weather: 67 degrees, clear, 5 mph
• Seahawks Injuries to Watch: RB Chris Carson (foot), RB Carlos Hyde (hamstring), RB Travis Homer (knee), S Jamal Adams (groin), CB Shaq Griffin (concussion), WR David Moore (ankle), S Ryan Neal (hip)
• Bills Injuries to Watch: TE Dawson Knox (calf), LB Matt Milano (pec), LG Cody Ford (knee), C Mitch Morse (concussion), RG Brian Winter (knee), CB Josh Norman (hamstring)

Seahawks Trends

• Seattle has the second-highest implied team total of the week.
• The Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
• Seattle is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven November contests.
• The Seahawks are 5-2 toward overs this season.
• Seattle is averaging 34.3 points per game
• Russell Wilson has thrown for multiple TD passes with 21+ FP in every game this season, and he’s now thrown for 4+ TD in four of his seven games. He has a TD rate of 10.2%, which would be an NFL record if he could maintain that rate. The Bills had allowed multiple TDs in five straight games before playing Sam Darnold and Cam Newton the last two weeks.
• D.K. Metcalf exploded for 12/161/2 receiving on 15 targets last week after failing to reach 12+ FP for the first time in Week 7. He faced Patrick Peterson in that Week 7 game, and he’ll get a tough matchup this week against Tre’Davious White, who is allowing just .69 yards per coverage snap.
• Tyler Lockett managed just 4/33 receiving on five targets last week after exploding for 15/200/3 receiving in Week 7. He’ll get the more desirable matchup this week as the Bills have consistently allowed production out of the slot this year, including to Jakobi Meyers (6/58 receiving) last week.
• We’re likely going to go down to the wire again this week with Chris Carson (foot), Carlos Hyde (hamstring), and Travis Homer (knee) all nursing injuries. DeeJay Dallas saw 56 snaps last week to seven snaps for Homer, who served in a limited role with his injury. Dallas posted 18/41/1 rushing and he caught all five of his targets for 17 yards and a touchdown in Seattle’s victory over San Francisco in Week 8. The Bills got gashed by Damien Harris for 16/102/1 rushing last week.

Bills Trends

• Buffalo has dropped four straight games ATS.
• The Bills are 5-2-1 toward overs this season.
• Josh Allen has finished as a QB2 in each of his last four starts. He accounted for multiple scores in each of his first six games before accounting for just one rushing TD over the last two weeks. Seattle is allowing the second-most FPG to QBs (30.7) and the most passing yards per game (366.4). Seattle’s defense showed glimpses of hope for three quarters last week before Nick Mullens entered and led the 49ers to three fourth-quarter touchdowns.
• The Seahawks are also giving up by far the most FPG to WRs (47.0) and the most receiving yards per game (269.3). Stefon Diggs has posted double-digit FP in every game this season with 6+ catches in each of his last five games.
• John Brown has just 5/63 receiving in Weeks 3-9, but he did return to the lineup to run a route on 96% of Allen’s dropbacks last week.
• Cole Beasley caught his only targets for 24 yards last week, snapping a six-game streak of 11+ FP. Seattle has been burned by slot receivers most of the year, including most recently by Larry Fitzgerald (8/62 receiving) in Week 7.
• Zack Moss held a slight edge over Devin Singletary in snaps last week (31 to 28) and they saw the same number of carries (14) and routes run (8). Singletary finished with 92 scrimmage yards while Moss had 81 yards with two TDs. Moss’ snap share has climbed every since he returned in Week 6 (25%<47%<53%). The Seahawks are facing the third-most RB targets per game (9.3) and just 19.6 RB carries per game.

Brolley’s Bets

Seattle Seahawks -3 (Staff Pick Lean)

Cole Beasley (Buf) over 4.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Tyler Lockett (Sea) over 69.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Denver Broncos (3-4, 5-2 ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (2-6, 3-5), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Broncos 23, Falcons 27
• Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 4, 48 to 50
• Weather: Dome
• Broncos Injuries to Watch: CB A.J. Bouye (concussion), WR Tim Patrick (hamstring), RB Phillip Lindsay (toe), CB Bryce Callahan (ankle), TE Nick Vannett (foot)
• Broncos COVID-19 Watch List: DL Shelby Harris
• Falcons Injuries to Watch: WR Calvin Ridley (foot), DE Dante Fowler (hamstring), DE Takk McKinley (groin), WR Russell Gage (shoulder)

Broncos Trends

• Denver is 5-2 ATS this season despite its 3-4 overall mark.
• The Broncos had just two first downs to the Chargers’ 21 first downs in the third quarter of Week 8 before Denver totally flipped the script on Los Angeles over the final 21 minutes.
• Drew Lock snapped a seven-game streak without multiple TDs last week. The Broncos had just two first downs midway into the third quarter before Lock awoke from his slumber in the final 21 minutes to pull out an improbable victory. Lock threw for a season-best three touchdowns and 248 yards for his first game with 20+ FP. The second-year QB has now thrown 40+ times in consecutive games and there’s a chance he does it again this week against the pass-funnel defense in Atlanta. The Falcons held Teddy Bridgewater and Matthew Stafford in check the last two weeks, but they allowed multiple scores to quarterbacks in each of their first six games.
• The Broncos finally started playing Jerry Jeudy more on the perimeter last week with K.J. Hamler moving into the slot (We thought Jeudy would be the Z receiver and Hamler would be the slot receiver prior to the season). Jeudy ran just 11% of his routes from the slot last week after running 75% of his routes inside in the first seven weeks of the season. Jeudy posted 4/73 receiving on a season-high 10 targets against the Chargers. The Falcons held Robby Anderson (5/48 receiving) and D.J. Moore (2/55) in check last week, but they’re still allowing the fifth-most FPG to WRs (44.0).
• We’ll see if Jeudy sticks on the perimeter if Tim Patrick (hamstring) returns to the lineup this week. Patrick had posted 14+ FP in three straight games before injuring his hamstring in Week 7.
• Noah Fant ran 33 routes to Albert Okwuegbunam’s 12 routes last week. Albert O scored a touchdown on his only target although he drew a critical DPI in the final seconds to set up Hamler’s game-winning catch. Fant posted 7/47 receiving on nine targets, which gives him four straight games between 35 and 47 yards. The Falcons are still giving up the most FPG to TEs (19.3) with a league-high eight TDs allowed to the position.
• Phillip Lindsay sparked Denver’s comeback last week with his 55-yard touchdown run as he finished with 6/83/1 rushing. Melvin Gordon still played more snaps (36 to 29) and he ran more routes (24 to 17) but he finished with just 8/26 rushing and 6/21 receiving. The Falcons have been a pass funnel for RBs, allowing just 18.1/66.5 rushing per game compared to 6.5/45.1 receiving per game.

Falcons Trends

• The Falcons own a lowly 2-6 record with a not so terrible -15 point differential.
• Atlanta has failed to cover in four straight home games and in four straight games as a favorite.
• Atlanta dropped four of its first six games in one-score games before finally winning its first one-score game over the Panthers in Week 8.
• Todd Gurley scored his eighth touchdown of the season and for the sixth game in eight contests against the Panthers last week. He finished with 18/46/1 rushing without a target in Week 8. Gurley has now finished under 3.0 YPC in three straight games and he’s finished with two or fewer catches in six of his eight games. He’s still had 16+ opportunities in every game and he’s now third in goal-line carries in the league (12) behind only Ezekiel Elliott. Gurley did see a season-low 51% snap share but that was likely a product of playing on Thursday night. The Broncos have allowed just two rushing TDs this season.
• With Gurley vulturing so many TDs, Matt Ryan has just one game with multiple TD passes in his last six contests. He’s at least posted 18+ FP in three straight games. Justin Herbert posted 278/3 passing against the Broncos last week.
• Julio Jones has posted 7+ catches, 9+ targets, and 95+ yards in each of his first three games back from his hamstring injury. The Broncos could be down CB A.J. Bouye (concussion) this week.
• Ryan could be without Ridley this week after he suffered a foot injury last week. The Falcons are on bye in Week 10 so there’s a great chance they play it safe with Ridley and rest him until they take the field again in Week 11 against the Saints. Christian Blake is the direct backup to Ridley and he posted 2/14 receiving after he left in Week 8.
• Russell Gage has just two catches for 26 or fewer yards in four of his last six games.
• Hayden Hurst has run off three straight games with 10+ FP and 50+ receiving yards, and his role could be a little bigger this week if Ridley is out. The Broncos have held Hunter Henry and Travis Kelce each under 8 FP in the last two weeks.

Brolley’s Bets

Denver Broncos +4 (Staff Picks Lean)

Jerry Jeudy (Den) over 47.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Houston Texans (1-6, 1-6 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6, 2-5), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Texans 28.75, Jaguars 21.25
• Spread/Total Movements: 6 to 7 to 6.5, 51 to 50
• Weather: 80 degrees, 35% chance of rain, 15 mph
• Texans Injuries to Watch: LB Jake Martin (COVID-19 list), OLB Whitney Mercilus (COVID-19 list), LB Dylan Cole (COVID-19 list), WR Randall Cobb (illness), RB Devine Ozigbo (hamstring),
• Jaguars Injuries to Watch: QB Gardner Minshew (thumb), RG A.J. Cann (shoulder), C Brandon Linder (hip), LB Myles Jack (ankle), CB Sidney Jones (ribs)

Texans Trends

• Houston smoked Jacksonville 30-14 as 6.5-point home favorites back in Week 5 for their only victory of the season.
• The Texans are 4-1 ATS in the last five games in this series.
• Houston has played over the total in four straight road games.
• The Texans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
• The Jaguars have allowed 30+ points in six straight games.
• Deshaun Watson has thrown for 300+ yards in four straight and he has multiple passing TDs in five straight games. He torched the Jaguars earlier this season for 359/3 passing and 26.8 FPG.
• The Texans nearly traded Will Fuller this week but he’ll remain in Houston through the end of the season. He’s posted 12+ FP in six of his seven games, which included a 4/58/1 receiving performance against the Jaguars in Week 5.
• Brandin Cooks erupted for 8/161/1 receiving for 30.1 FPG against the Jaguars back in Week 5 after having just 23.8 FPG in his first four games. He’s stayed hot since then too, posting 16/128/1 receiving on 18 targets in his last two games.
• Jordan Akins will return to the lineup in Week 9 after missing Houston’s last three games for an ankle injury and a concussion. Akins saw more snaps and more targets than Darren Fells in each of his three full games to open the season with two performances of 11+ FP. Fells had a pair of 13+ FP performances with Akins out of the lineup in Weeks 5-6 before he failed to see a target against the Packers. One of his blow-up games came against the Jaguars when he caught his only two targets for 57 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars defense is allowing a league-high one touchdown per game to TEs, including four TDs in their last three games.
• David Johnson has been solid but unspectacular this season as he’s scored 11-17 FPG in his last five games. He posted a season-best 96 rushing yards against Jacksonville back in Week 5.

Jaguars Trends

• The Jaguars haven’t covered a spread in five straight games.
• These teams have played under the total in five straight games.
• The Jaguars will turn to sixth-round pick Jake Luton this week. Luton posted impressive numbers at Oregon State last season with 28 TDs to just three INTs, and he possesses excellent size (6’6”, 224 pounds) and a strong arm. Gardner Minshew (thumb) posted 301/2 passing in catch-up mode against the Texans in Week 5.
• D.J. Chark could be the best match with Luton’s arm and he certainly needs a jumpstart. He’s averaging just 3.1 YPT (75 yards on 25 targets) in his last three games with Minshew. He posted 3/16 receiving on four targets against the Texans in Week 5.
• Laviska Shenault has managed just 6/54 receiving in his last two games after posting 7/79 receiving on eight targets against the Texans in Week 5. Shenault has just four carries in his last five games after starting the season with seven carries in his first two contests.
• Keelan Cole had just a 12-yard catch in his last game in Week 7 after posting 10+ FP in consecutive games before that, including 2/25/1 receiving on six targets against the Texans in Week 6.
• James Robinson has posted 17+ touches in every game this season, which included his best performance of the season against the Chargers in Week 7 with 137/2 scrimmage. He actually had his worst game in his last six contests against the Texans in Week 6 with 70 scrimmage yards. The Texans are allowing the most rushing yards per game to RBs (151.0).

Brolley’s Bets

Houston Texans +6 (Best Bet)

Carolina Panthers (3-5, 4-4 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-1, 6-2), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Panthers 21, Chiefs 31.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 12 to 10.5, 52 to 52.5
• Weather: 75 degrees, clear, 10-15 mph
• Panthers Injuries to Watch: S Jeremy Chinn (knee), LT Russell Okung (calf)
• Chiefs Injuries to Watch: WR Sammy Watkins (hamstring), DL Chris Jones (COVID-19 list), RT Mitchell Schwartz (back)
• Chiefs COVID-19 Watch List: DE Frank Clark (knee)

Panthers Trends

• The Panthers have dropped three straight games after winning three straight games as an underdog.
• Carolina has covered four straight games as an underdog.
• The Panthers are 5-1 toward unders in their last six games.
• Christian McCaffrey is set to see his first game action since he suffered his high-ankle injury in Week 2. HC Matt Rhule has already said Mike Davis will have some sort of role next to McCaffrey in the second half of the season so expectations need to be lowered a little bit for CMC. At least initially, Davis could see 6-8 touches next to CMC, but McCaffrey still has a path to be the RB1 in the second half of the year with a near bell-cow role. The Chiefs are allowing 153.5 scrimmage yards per game to RBs this season.
• Teddy Bridgewater suffered an injury on a nasty hit last week but he was also playing a bit uneven for his standards before the hit. He’s now fallen below 20 FP in three straight games after doing it in consecutive games in Weeks 4-5. The Chiefs are allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game to QB (213.4), and they’ve allowed multiple passing TDs just twice in eight games.
• OC Joe Brady is manufacturing targets and carries for Curtis Samuel every week, which has hurt the bottom lines for Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore recently. Samuel has posted 39+ scrimmage yards and 3+ catches in five straight games, and he’s scored in consecutive games on conventional carries as a running back. We’ll see if those opportunities dry up this week now that CMC is back in the lineup.
• Anderson finished with 5/48 receiving on eight targets last week, which was his worst fantasy performance of the season in a beautiful spot against the Falcons. Anderson has scored just one touchdown this season and the Chiefs are allowing the second-fewest receiving yards per game to WRs (128.6).
• Moore didn’t even have a catch until 57 minutes into last week’s game, but he made a couple of big catches in the final minutes to post 2/55 receiving on six targets. It snapped a three-game run with exactly 93 receiving yards.

Chiefs Trends

• The Chiefs have the highest implied team total of the week.
• The Chiefs are covering spreads at an incredible 73.1% clip since the start of 2019 (19-7-1, postseason included).
• Kansas City is 5-2 toward unders in its last seven games.
• Patrick Mahomes got on track against the Jets last week with 416/5 passing after combining for 425/3 passing in Weeks 6-7. The Panthers have allowed 300+ passing yards once this season and multiple passing TDs twice.
• Tyreek Hill has topped 15+ FP in seven of his eight games this season after posting 4/98/2 receiving against the Jets in Week 8. Calvin Ridley had 3/42 receiving against the Panthers last week before leaving in the first half.
• Mecole Hardman is second in the league in yards per targets (12.0) and he ran a route on 73.8% of Mahomes’ dropbacks last week with a 21% target share. He turned his nine looks into 7/96/1 receiving against the Jets. Sammy Watkins (hamstring) is once again up in the air but he did practice this week.
• Travis Kelce got back on track last week with his fourth 20+ FP performance in eight games this season. He’s now hit 50+ yards and 10+ FP in seven games this year. Hayden Hurst managed 5/54 receiving against the Panthers last week.
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire saw just 32% of the running back carries last week. Over the last two weeks, CEH holds an edge in snap share (53% to 33%) and in routes run (37 to 21) over Le’Veon Bell.

Brolley’s Bets

Carolina Panthers +11 (Staff Picks Lean)

Christian McCaffrey (Car) over 87.5 rushing and receiving yards (Best Bet)

Chicago Bears (5-3, 5-3 ATS) at Tennessee Titans (5-2, 2-5), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Bears 20.5, Titans 27
• Spread/Total Movements: 5.5 to 6.5, 46.5 to 47.5
• Weather: 75 degrees, clear, 5-10 mph
• Bears Injuries to Watch: OG Cody Whitehair (COVID-19 list), WR Anthony Miller (toe), TE Cole Kmet (groin), S Tashaun Gipson (foot), S Eddie Jackson (knee), NT John Jenkins (ankle), QB Mitch Trubisky (throwing shoulder)
• Titans Injuries to Watch: DE Jadeveon Clowney (DE), RT Dennis Kelly (knee), DL Jeffery Simmon (ankle), WR A.J. Brown (knee) WR Adam Humphries (concussion)

Bears Trends

• The Bears are 4-1 toward unders in their last five games.
• David Montgomery has yet to finish as an RB1 in his first five games without Tarik Cohen as he’s scored between 10-18 FP in each of those games. Playing behind a makeshift O-line, Giovani Bernard and Samaje Perine combined for 112/3 scrimmage against the Titans last week.
• Nick Foles threw for multiple TD passes for the first time in one of his five starts. He’s now attempted 39+ passes in each of his starts but he’s averaging just 6.0 YPA. The Titans released a pair of veterans in Vic Beasley and Johnathan Joseph this week as their defense has allowed multiple TD passes to QBs in six straight games.
• Allen Robinson had his third game with 20+ FP in six tries with Foles at quarterback, but he has seen just 11 targets over the last two games. Perimeter WRs Tee Higgins and Auden Tate combined for 13/143 receiving against the Titans last week.
• With A-Rob seeing a recent dip in targets, Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller each saw an uptick in usage last week. Mooney has seen 5+ targets in six straight games while Miller saw season-bests in snap share (76%) and targets (11) last week. The Titans have been roasted out of the slot this season (they traded for Desmond King this week) with Tyler Boyd getting them for 6/67/1 receiving last week.
• Jimmy Graham failed to reach 3+ catches and 30+ yards against the Saints last week, which ended his five-game run of hitting those marks with Nick Foles at quarterback. He’s at least seen 5+ targets in seven of his eight games, which is excellent for the position, and the Titans have allowed a solid four touchdowns to the position this season.

Titans Trends

• The Titans stand at 5-2 overall but their 2-5 ATS mark shows that their overall record is a bit fraudulent.
• Tennessee is 4-0-1 toward overs in its last five games.
• The Titans owned a 2.1 yards per play advantage over the Bengals, but Cincinnati left Week 8 with a decisive 31-20 victory thanks to their third-down efficiency (67% to 56%) and by winning the turnover battle (0 to 2).
• Derrick Henry has 75+ yards and/or scored a touchdown in 23 of his last 24 games. He’s also averaged 20.0 touches per game the last two weeks despite the Titans playing from behind in those contests. The Bears are allowing 4.4 YPC this season and six rushing TDs to RBs in seven games this season.
• Ryan Tannehill’s put up near-identical production in his last two games with 18 completions, 30 attempts, and two touchdown passes in each game. Tannehill has thrown for multiple TD passes in six of seven games while the Bears have allowed multiple TD passes to QBs in the last two weeks after not allowing multiple TD passes in their first six games.
• A.J. Brown has scored touchdowns in four straight games with five scores total in that span. He had season-lows in catches (4) and yards (24) last week but he still got to 12.4 FP. The Bears are giving up the third-most FPG to WRs (28.4) this season.
• Corey Davis is averaging 5.8 receptions and 73.8 yards per game in his five full contests. The Bears allowed two different pairs of WRs to reach 11+ FP in the same game in Weeks 6-7 before running into a depleted Saints WR corps last week.
• Jonnu Smith ranked as the TE3 through his first four games this season with 17.5 FPG, but he’s averaged just 3.0 FPG in his last three games with just 4/51 receiving in that span. Smith managed just 2/29 receiving on two targets (6.7% share) against the Bengals in Week 8 as Anthony Firkser (2/36) outproduced him despite Smith owning an 81% to 42% edge in snap share. Smith averaged 6.8 targets per game in his first four games of the season with Brown and Davis in-and-out of the lineup, but he’s averaging just 2.7 targets per game over his last three games with Brown and Davis back in the lineup. The Bears allowed 5/51/1 receiving to Jared Cook last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Tennessee Titans -6 (Staff Picks Lean)

New York Giants (1-7, 5-3 ATS) at Washington Football Team (2-5, 4-3), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Giants 20, Washington 22.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 2.5, 41 to 42.5
• Weather: 70 degrees, clear, light winds
• Giants Injuries to Watch: WR Sterling Shepard (toe), RB Devonta Freeman (ankle), Will Hernandez (COVID-19 list), LB Blake Martinez (hamstring), CB Ryan Lewis (hamstring), S Logan Ryan (hip)
• Washington Injuries to Watch: S Landon Collins (Achilles, IR), WR Dontrelle Inman (hamstring)

Giants Trends

• The Giants beat the Football Team 20-19 in Week 6 as two-point home favorites.
• New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.
• The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.
• The Giants have played under the total in five of their last seven games.
• The Giants stood toe to toe with the Buccaneers in Week 8 with both teams averaging 5.2 yards per play on Monday Night Football.
• Daniel Jones owns a perfect 3-0 record against Washington in his career and he’s 1-16 in his other 17 career starts. He’s slightly trending upward since Sterling Shepard returned with two TD passes in each of his last two games. Jones posted 112/1 passing with 74 rushing yards against the Football Team in Week 6.
• Shepard has seen 18 total targets and he’s posted 15+ FP in each of his first two games back from the injured reserve. The Football Team is allowing the fewest FPG to WRs (26.7) thanks in large part because they’re facing a league-low 15.9 targets per game.
• Darius Slayton posted 2/41/1 receiving against Washington back in Week 6, and he’s scored 10+ FP in three of his last four games. Slayton posted 5/56 receiving on nine targets last week but Jones left a ton of throws to Slayton on the field, which has been a problem all season long. He posted 2/30 receiving on four targets against Washington In Week 6.
• Evan Engram has posted 11/107 receiving on 19 targets in the last two games with Shepard on the field, but he’s still yet to score a receiving TD this season.
• The Giants used an ugly three-man backfield with Devonta Freeman (ankle) out of the lineup last week. Wayne Gallman led the way with 32 snaps while Alfred Morris and Dion Lewis each saw 21 snaps, and Gallman posted 62/1 scrimmage on 13 touches against the Buccaneers. Freeman had 19/57 scrimmage against Washington back in Week 6.

Washington Trends

• The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.
• Kyle Allen has thrown for multiple TDs in his last two starts but he topped out at 18 FP in those starts, which came against the Giants in Week 6 (280/2 passing)
• Terry McLaurin has caught seven passes with 74+ yards in each of Allen’s last two starts, including 7/74 receiving on 12 targets against the Giants in Week 6. He’s also seen 23 targets in those contests and he’s seen 7+ targets in every game this season.
• Logan Thomas has seen 4+ targets in every game this season, but his efficiency has skyrocketed with Allen. Thomas has 7/102/2 receiving on eight targets in his last two games with Allen, which includes a 3/42/1 receiving performance against this week’s opponent. Thomas is averaging 1.85 yards per route run in that span after averaging a pathetic .58 yards per route run with Dwayne Haskins in Weeks 1-5. The Giants have allowed 11+ FP in three straight games, which includes Thomas’ performance against them in Week 6.
• Antonio Gibson is looking for a post-bye bump like we saw with J.K. Dobbins and D’Andre Swift. Gibson posted a career-best 128 rushing yards in a blowout victory over the Cowboys before their bye. He posted 9/30 rushing and 4/25 receiving against the Giants in Week 6 while J.D. McKissic bettered him with 6/43 receiving and 8/41 rushing.

Brolley’s Bets

New York Giants +3.5 (Best Bet)

J.D. McKissic (Was) over 2.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Detroit Lions (3-4, 3-4 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (2-5, 4-3), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Lions 24.25, Vikings 28.25
• Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 4
• Weather: Dome
• Lions Injuries to Watch: WR Kenny Golladay (hip), DE Trey Flower (wrist, IR), LB Jarrad Davis (COVID-19 list), RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (foot), CB Desmond Trufant (hamstring), DT Danny Shelton (wrist), LT Taylor Decker (back), S Tracy Walker (foot), WR Jamal Agnew (ribs)
• Lions COVID-19 Watch List: QB Matthew Stafford
• Vikings Injuries to Watch: CB Cameron Dantzler (concussion), CB Holton Hill (foot),

Lions Trends

• The Lions are 0-3 ATS in the three games that Kenny Golladay has partially or completely missed this season with an average margin of defeat of 15.3 points.
• Matthew Stafford is up in the air for Sunday’s game after being placed on the COVID-19 list for being a close contact. It took the Lions falling behind by multiple scores against the Colts to have his first game with 300+ yards and multiple TDs, which was something he did in four of his eight games last season. He threw for 364/4 passing in his lone start against a better Vikings defense last season, but he won’t have Kenny Golladay at his disposal this week.
• Marvin Jones has strung together consecutive games with 13+ FP after hitting that mark once in his first five games. Jones had 8/88/1 receiving on 14 targets in the first two games of the season when Golladay missed. The Vikings have allowed lead receivers to have top-12 weeks in each of their last four games (Davante/Julio/Metcalf/Fuller).
• Danny Amendola saw seven targets in each of the two games that Golladay missed at the beginning of the season while Quintez Cephus had 97 yards on 13 targets in Golladay’s spot. With Cephus a healthy scratch last week, Marvin Hall stepped into Golladay’s spot last week and posted 4/113 receiving on seven targets with the Lions playing catch-up with the Colts.
• T.J. Hockenson has scored a TD and/or top 50+ yards in all seven games. He caught all nine of his targets for 118/1 receiving in the first two games of the season when Golladay missed. Packers TEs Robert Tonyan and Jace Sternberger combined for 8/125 receiving against the Vikings last week.
• D’Andre Swift posted season-bests in rush share (54%) and snap share (62%) last week despite his down week for fantasy. His snap share has grown five straight games to a season-high 62% last week. Adrian Peterson has a long run of eight yards on 31 carries over his last three weeks. The Vikings are allowing 139.8 scrimmage yards per game to opposing RBs.

Vikings Trends

• Minnesota is on a five-game ATS and outright winning streak against Detroit.
• The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
• The Vikings have played over the total in four of their last five games.
• Dalvin Cook won Week 8 for fantasy and DFS by exploding for 226 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns in Minnesota’s 28-22 upset victory over the Packers. He’s now scored in every game this season and he has 11 TDs in just six games. The Lions have allowed multiple TDs to three backs in seven games.
• The Lions just got roasted by a decrepit Philip Rivers and his shaky cast of receivers to the tune of 263 yards and three touchdowns. The Lions own the eighth-worst sack rate and Kirk Cousins could have even more time to throw this week as Detroit lost their best pass-rusher Trey Flowers to a wrist injury. Cousins does have floor potential this week if the Vikings jump out to an early lead against a depleted Lions team and they ride Cook like they did last week when Cousins attempted just 14 passes. He does have some ceiling potential, too, if the Lions show a little fight as the Vikings have an implied total sitting around 29 points.
• Adam Thielen fell below 7 FP for the second time in seven games last week with just 3/27 receiving on four targets with Cousins attempting just 14 passes last week. He now has just three catches in each of his last two games with just nine combined targets.
• Justin Jefferson is leading the league in yards per target (14.1), but he now has four games with fewer than eight FP in seven games this season after he posted 3/26 receiving on four targets last week. The Lions are allowing 38.9 FPG to WRs this season.
• Irv Smith has run a route on 73% or more of Cousins’ dropbacks in each of his last three games after never topping 61% in his first four games. The Colts TEs combined for 26.6 FP in last week’s game with two touchdowns.

Brolley’s Bets

Minnesota Vikings -3.5 (Best Bet)

Late Afternoon Games

Las Vegas Raiders (4-3, 4-3 ATS) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-5, 5-2), 4:05 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Raiders 25.25, Chargers 26.25
• Spread/Total Movements: 1.5 to 1, 54 to 51.5
• Weather: Dome
• Raiders Injuries to Watch: RB Josh Jacobs (knee), RT Trent Brown (COVID-19 list), S Johnathan Abram (illness), RG Gabe Jackson (back), LT Kolton Miller (ankle), OT Sam Young (knee)
• Chargers Injuries to Watch: DE Joey Bosa (concussion), RT Bryan Bulaga (back), RB Troymaine Pope (concussion), RG Trai Turner (groin)

Raiders Trends

• The Raiders played under the total for the first time last week because of less-than-ideal conditions in Cleveland last week.
• These teams have played under the total in six of their last seven games when Philip Rivers was involved.
• The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
• Derek Carr ran for a three-year high 41 rushing yards last week as he was willing to do anything necessary in ugly conditions to win against the Browns. His performance last week snapped a five-game run of 250+ passing yards with multiple touchdown passes. He has a great chance to get back on track this week going against a Chargers defense that just got lit up by Drew Lock for 248/3 passing.
• Henry Ruggs has yet to see more than four targets in a game since he returned to the lineup three games ago, but he at least ran a route on 90% of Carr’s dropbacks. He was close to a huge game last week but Carr missed him on a deep ball and Ruggs failed to get two feet down in the end zone for a TD catch. K.J. Hamler posted 3/13/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
• Nelson Agholor didn’t register a catch a pass last week on two targets but he also ran a route on 90% of Carr’s dropbacks. Agholor could have some competition for playing time if Bryan Edwards is able to return to the lineup. Jerry Jeudy posted 4/73 receiving in this matchup last week.
• Darren Waller has caught 5+ passes in six of his seven games this season, and he’s easily leading the position with a 27% target share. Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam combined for 8/56/1 receiving last week against the Chargers.
• Josh Jacobs was ready to handle a heavy workload against the Browns as he posted 31/128 rushing without a catch on one target in ugly conditions. Jacobs has now seen 19+ opportunities in six of his seven games this season with 3+ catches in five of his seven games. He’s found the end zone five times this season but those scores have come in just two games so he has a bunch of middling performances surrounded by two boom games. The Chargers have been gashed for 25+ FP by opposing RBs in the last two games (MGIII-Lindsay/J-Rob).

Chargers Trends

• The Chargers are 3-14 in one-score games since the start of last season.
• Chargers’ games are averaging a combined 63.8 point per game over their last four contests with no contest falling below 57 points. Each of those games has gone over the total.
• Justin Herbert has thrown for 3+ TDs and he’s scored 23+ FP in four straight games. The Raiders had allowed 25+ FP to QBs in three straight games before playing Baker Mayfield in ugly conditions last week.
• Keenan Allen is averaging 12.8 targets per game in his five full games with Herbert, and he has 19/192/1 receiving on 25 targets in his last two games. Chris Godwin posted 9/88/1 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
• Mike Williams has performances of 5/99/1 and 5/109/2 receiving sandwiched around a 1/4 receiving performance in his last three games. Mike Evans caught his only two targets for 37 yards in this matchup two weeks ago.
• Hunter Henry has become the third fiddle in this passing attack for Herbert in recent weeks as he’s failed to reach 40+ yards in four straight games after topping 50+ yards in each of his first three games. Rob Gronkowski hung 5/62/1 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
• Justin Jackson led the backfield with 47% of the snaps followed by Troymaine Pope (29%), and Joshua Kelley (24%). Kelley saw a season-low 20% rush share last week with Pope coming out of nowhere to steal carries. Jackson has led the backfield in yards in each of the first three games without Austin Ekeler (hamstring, IR) as he’s averaging 97.0 scrimmage yards and 4.3 catches per game in that span. The Raiders are allowing 19/493.7 rushing per game (4.8 YPC) and 6.4/56.0 receiving per game to RBs this season.

Brolley’s Bets

Los Angeles Chargers -1 (Staff Picks Lean)

Mike Williams (LAC) over 40.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Miami Dolphins (4-3, 5-2 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (5-2, 5-2), 4:25 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Dolphins 22.5, Cardinals 27
• Spread/Total Movements: 4 to 4.5, 47.5 to 49.5
• Weather: Dome
• Dolphins Injuries to Watch: RB Myles Gaskin (knee, IR), RB Matt Breida (knee)
• Cardinals Injuries to Watch: RB Kenyan Drake (ankle), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (thigh), DE Jordan Phillips (hamstring), LB Jordan Hicks (ankle)

Dolphins Trends

• Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.
• The Dolphins have won three straight games, including two games as underdogs.
• Miami is 4-1 toward unders in its last five games.
• With Miami’s defense dominating last week, the Dolphins did a great job of hiding Tua Tagovailoa in his first career start as he threw for just 93 yards and a touchdown on 22 attempts (4.2 YPA).
• DeVante Parker caught just a three-yard TD on two targets in his first game with Tua last week, giving him just 6/88/2 receiving in his last three games. CB Patrick Peterson contained D.K. Metcalf (2/23 receiving) in their last game.
• Mike Gesicki has more than 15 receiving yards just once in his last five games, including just 1/8 receiving on two targets in his first game with Tua last week.
• Preston Williams has more than 20 receiving yards just once in his last five games, including just 2/15 receiving on five targets in his first game with Tua last week.
• The Dolphins will be without Myles Gaskin (knee, IR) for the next couple of weeks and it looks like Matt Breida (hamstring) could also miss, leaving this backfield to Patrick Laird, Jordan Howard, DeAndre Washington, Salvon Ahmed, and Lynn Bowden. GROSS. The Cardinals are at least allowing the seventh-most FPG to RBs (26.3) if we get any more clarity about this backfield later this weekend.

Cardinals Trends

• Arizona is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games.
• The Cardinals are 6-1 toward unders in their last seven games.
• Kyler Murray has 24+ FP in every game this season and he’s heating up as a passer with multiple TD passes in four of his last five games. The Dolphins have held QBs under 15 FP in three straight games and in four of their last five games.
• DeAndre Hopkins entered his Week 7 bye with the league lead in catches (57), receiving yards (704), and targets (73). He came out of his bye still leading the league in catches and receiving yards. Robert Woods posted 7/85/1 receiving against the Dolphins last week.
• Christian Kirk has run off four straight games with 10+ FP, including consecutive performances with 20+ FP thanks to four touchdowns. He has more than three catches just once in six games this season playing next to Hopkins. The Dolphins have allowed six TDs to WR in seven games this season.
• Chase Edmonds could get bell-cow usage this week with Kenyan Drake (ankle) likely to miss this week. Edmonds is averaging 6.1 YPC this season but he’s yet to reach 7+ carries in a game this season. He has 5+ catches in three of his last four games, and the Dolphins are giving up 149.0 scrimmage yards per game to RBs.

Brolley’s Bets

Arizona Cardinals -3.5 (Best Bet)

Kyler Murray (Ari) over 40.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-0, 6-1 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (2-6, 0-8), 4:25 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Steelers 27.75, Cowboys 13.75
• Spread/Total Movements: 13.5 to 14
• Weather: Dome
• Steelers Injuries to Watch: Slot CB Mike Hilton (shoulder), DE Tyson Alualu (knee), DE Isaiah Buggs (ankle)
• Cowboys Injuries to Watch: RB Ezekiel Elliott (hamstring), QB Andy Dalton (COVID-19 list), DE Aldon Smith (knee)

Steelers Trends

• Pittsburgh is the only remaining unbeaten team and they’re also an NFL-best 6-1 ATS.
• The Steelers are on a five-game ATS winning streak.
• Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 toward overs in its last six games.
• Ben Roethlisberger has fallen below 16+ FP in three straight games, and he’s finished with fewer than 270 passing yards in five straight games. He’s still thrown for multiple TDs in six of his seven games. The Cowboys have allowed fewer than 225 passing yards in five straight games, including fewer than 195 yards in the three games since Dak Prescott left the lineup as opposing offenses no longer need to keep their foot on the pedal.
• Diontae Johnson had yet another injury-filled dud last week. The second-year WR missed a chunk of time in the first half of Week 8 because of a hamstring issue — he finished with a 77% snap share — and he was ineffective when he came back to the lineup. He posted just a six-yard catch on three targets (9.4% share) in a tough matchup against the Ravens. Johnson has one monster game (29 FP in Week 7) surrounded by 3.3 FP in three games from Weeks 3-8. The Cowboys are allowing the seventh-most FPG to WRs this season (41.1).
• Chase Claypool led the Steelers with nine targets last week, which he turned into 5/42/1 receiving against the Ravens. He also ran a route on 85% of Big Ben’s dropbacks last week. Claypool has scored seven times this season and the Cowboys have allowed the second-most TDs to WRs this season with 15.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster has shown some sign of life the last two weeks with 16/152 receiving on 22 targets after failing to top 50+ yards in four straight games. Dallas is allowing just 11.5 catches per game to WRs since opponents haven’t been pressed to throw much lately.
• Eric Ebron has shockingly been the steadiest receiver in the Steelers offense in the first half of the season. He’s posted between 43 and 52 receiving yards in five of his last six games, and he scored his second touchdown of the season last week in a tough matchup against the Ravens last week to finish as the TE3 in Week 8. Dallas Goedert didn’t make any noise against the Cowboys in his first game back last week, but Logan Thomas went for 4/60/1 receiving against Dallas back in Week 7.
• James Conner has scored in five of his last six games. He managed just 60 scrimmage yards last week, which was a six-game low since he got benched in the season opener. He has a chance to get to 20+ carries for the third time in four games going against a Cowboys team that’s faced a league-high 27.9 carries per game from RBs for the second-most rushing yards per game (138.6).

Cowboys Trends

• The Cowboys have the lowest implied team total of the week.
• The Cowboys are the only team that’s yet to cover a spread this season.
• Dallas’ 0-8 ATS record is tied for the worst start to a season in the last 20 years since the Raiders started 0-8 ATS back in 2003 with Rich Gannon and Bill Callahan.
• The Cowboys are 5-1 toward overs in their last six home games.
• The Cowboys are averaging a pathetic 3.5 yards per play.
• The Cowboys are a complete mess at quarterback with Andy Dalton now on the COVID-19 list. They’re going to turn to either Cooper Rush or Garrett Gilbert at quarterback after getting a look at rookie Ben DiNucci last week. The Steelers lead the league in sacks (30) so this could be a long day for whoever gets the start this week.
• Amari Cooper managed just a five-yard catch playing with DiNucci last week after posting 14/159/1 receiving in the two games started by Dalton. A.J. Brown erupted for 6/153/1 receiving against the Steelers in Week 7, but Pittsburgh held Hollywood Brown (1/3/1) and Odell Beckham (2/25) in two of their last three games.
• CeeDee Lamb has just 4/27 receiving on 10 targets over his last two games. Slot WR Willie Snead did go wild against the Steelers last week with 5/106 receiving.
• Michael Gallup saw a season-best 12 targets from DiNucci last week, which he turned into 7/61 receiving. Gallup has seen six or fewer targets in six of his eight games this season.
• Dalton Schultz posted 6/53 receiving last week on eight targets after managing just 7/63 receiving on 12 targets in his previous three games. The Steelers limited Mark Andrews (3/32) and Jonnu Smith (1/9) in consecutive weeks.
• Ezekiel Elliott is averaging career-low across the board in YPC (3.9), rushing yards per game (65.1), and YPR (6.5). He’s also been limited to rehab work early in the week because of a hamstring injury, meaning Tony Pollard would be the next man up if he’s unable to play. Zeke has just two catches for two yards in his last two games and he hasn’t found the end zone since Dak Prescott (leg) left the lineup. The Steelers are still giving up the second-fewest FPG to RBs (18.0) despite getting gashed for 31/200/1 rushing by J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Dallas Cowboys +14 (Staff Picks Lean)

CeeDee Lamb (Dal) over 3.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Ben Roethlisberger (Pit) under 36.5 attempts (Best Bet)

Sunday Night Football

New Orleans Saints (5-2, 2-5 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2, 4-4), 8:20 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Saints 23, Buccaneers 27.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 5.5 to 4.5, 54 to 50.5
• Weather: 75 degrees, 25% chance of rain, 15-20 mph
• Saints Injuries to Watch: QB Drew Brees (throwing shoulder), WR Michael Thomas (hamstring) DT Sheldon Rankins (knee)
• Buccaneers Injuries to Watch: WR Chris Godwin (finger), OG Ali Marpet (concussion), WR Scotty Miller (hip), OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (knee)

Saints Trends

• The Saints are riding a four-game ATS winning streak in this series, which includes a 34-23 victory in the season opener as four-point home favorites.
• New Orleans has played over the total in every game this season.
• The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
• Alvin Kamara is averaging 9.4 targets and 12.4 carries per game, and he’s finished as an RB1 in every game. He’s already topped his 533 receiving yards in 14 games from last season as he currently sits at 556 receiving yards. The Bucs limited Kamara to just 12/16/1 rushing but he added 5/51/1 receiving back in the season opener.
• Drew Brees has thrown for 280+ yards in four of his last five games and he’s also thrown for multiple scores in four of his last five games, which has helped him to 19+ FP in four of his last five games. He had his worst fantasy output against the Buccaneers in the season opener (14.4), finishing with 160/2 receiving.
• It looks like he should get Michael Thomas back for the first time since that Week 1 contest in which Thomas posted 3/17 receiving on five targets.
• Emmanuel Sanders is also trending toward returning to the lineup after missing the last two games after landing on the COVID-19 list. Sanders posted 3/15/1 receiving on five targets against the Buccaneers back in Week 1 in his first game with Brees. Sterling Shepard posted 8/74 receiving in this matchup last week.
• Jared Cook has scored in three straight games and in four of his last five games as he’s seen six end-zone targets this season, which is more than double than the next closest Saint (Sanders). Cook had his most active game against the Buccaneers with 5/80 receiving on seven targets but he failed to find the end zone.

Buccaneers Trends

• These teams have played over the total in five of their last six games in this series.
• Tom Brady has thrown for multiple TDs in three straight games and in five of his last six games. The Saints have allowed multiple TD passes in each of their seven games this season, and Brady posted 239/2 passing with two INTs against New Orleans back in the season opener.
• He’ll have a new weapon at his disposal in Antonio Brown this week, who will slide into Scotty Miller’s spot in the lineup. AB has appeared in just one game over the last season-plus, and he posted 4/56/1 receiving on eight targets from Brady with the Patriots last season. He could be active right out of the gates as Mike Evans has struggled against Marshon Lattimore during his career.
• Evans is averaging 20.1 FPG without Chris Godwin in the lineup and just 7.3 FPG with Godwin in the lineup. Evans has scored on all six of his targets inside the 10-yard line this season. Evans had just a two-yard touchdown catch against the Saints earlier this season and he had 4/69 receiving on 11 targets against New Orleans with a goose egg in one of those games.
• Godwin will try to play this week after needing surgery on his index finger. He’s posted 5+ catches and 48+ yards in each of his four games this season, including a 6/79 receiving performance against the Saints in Week 1. Slot WR Anthony Miller posted 8/73 receiving on 11 targets against the Saints last week.
• Rob Gronkowski has scored in three straight games with 4+ catches and 40+ yards in each of those contests. He managed just 2/11 receiving in his first game with the Buccaneers against the Saints. New Orleans is allowing the third-most FPG to TEs (16.9) with six TDs given up to the position.
• Leonard Fournette saw more snaps (51 to 17), more carries (15 to 7), and more targets (6 to 4) than Ronald Jones last week, who fumbled on the second drive of the game. RoJo finished with 19/82 scrimmage against the Saints in the season while Fournette had just 6/20 scrimmage in his first action in Tampa. The Saints are allowing 106.7 scrimmage yards per game to RBs this season.

Brolley’s Bets

New Orleans Saints +4.5 (Best Bet)

Alvin Kamara (NO) over 5.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Scotty Miller (TB) under 29.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)