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Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.
Tom Brolley
Game Picks
Best Bets ATS Record: 21-22-2 (-4.15 units); W9: 3-4 (-1.39 units)
Overall ATS Record: 73-58-1 (55.7%); W9: 7-6 (53.8%)
Totals Record: 3-3 (-.04 units); W9: 1-0 (+.91 units)
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5, FanDuel) vs. Miami Dolphins
I’ve rode the Dolphins in my ATS picks in the second half of last season and in the first part of this season, but I think the markets have overcorrected a bit this week. The opening lines for the game in the 4.5 to 5 point range were much more in line with where this line should. I see some value with the Cardinals this week coming out of their bye. The Dolphins did a great job of hiding Tua Tagovailoa in his first career start as he threw for just 93 yards and a touchdown on 22 attempts (4.2 YPA) with Miami’s defense dominating Jared Goff and the Rams. I’m skeptical about Tua Tagovailoa keeping pace with Kyler Murray this week if the Dolphins are actually forced to play from behind this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Nov. 5).
New Orleans Saints (+4.5, FanDuel) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers should be favored this week against the Saints, but I’m seeing some value on the Saints side this week at +4.5. I think this line should be in the 3 to 3.5 point range with the Saints getting back to full strength on the offensive side of the ball with Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders potentially returning this week. The Buccaneers will add Antonio Brown to the mix this week and we’ll see what he can give right away. Tom Brady could need him depending on Chris Godwin’s availability because Mike Evans has really struggled against Marshon Lattimore during his career. Risk one unit at -110 to win .89 units (Nov. 5).
**San Francisco 49ers (+5.5, BetMGM) vs. Green Bay Packers
I didn’t expect to be on the 49ers this week given the injuries to George Kittle (foot) and Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle), but there’s been too much of a market overcorrection in Green Bay’s favor. Even with San Francisco’s injury issues this week, I have the Packers power rated as three-point favorites. The Packers are in a tricky spot as they have to travel to the West Coast in an extremely short week and now Vegas is expecting them to win by nearly a touchdown. They also have COVID-19 concerns with RB Jamaal Williams, RB A.J. Dillon, and LB Kamal Martin out (so far) this week. It looks like RB Aaron Jones (calf) will be unlikely to go so the Packers will be down to just Dexter Williams and Tyler Ervin at running back this week. Green Bay’s defense is having trouble stopping the run after Dalvin Cook torched the Packers for 226 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns in Week 8. Watching Green Bay’s defense last week gave me flashbacks to last year’s NFC Championship when they gave up 285 rushing to the 49ers. I don’t mind grabbing the 49ers at +3.5 or better this week. Risk 1.5 units at -110 to win 1.36 units (Nov. 3)
**I gave out the 49ers at +5.5 earlier in the week before the additions of Trent Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, and Kendrick Bourne to the COVID-19 list. I’d still lean toward the 49ers at +7 or better but I’m not nearly as comfortable with the bet now.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (over 52.5 points, BETMGM)
This total has dipped a bit since the opening lines came out, and I’m a bit confused by the movement. Los Angeles’ defense fell apart against the Broncos late last week after Joey Bosa left in the second half with a concussion, and there’s a good chance he can’t go this week. With Justin Herbert in charge, Chargers games are now averaging a combined 63.8 point per game over their last four contests with no contest falling below 57 points. Meanwhile, the Raiders just played their first game under the total last week against the Browns, but it took extremely windy and wet conditions for them to play under a total. That won’t be the case this week as the game will be played in a controlled environment in Los Angeles. I’d bet over this total up to 53.5 and below. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Nov. 3)
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, DraftKings) vs. Detroit Lions
I’m grabbing the Vikings at -3.5 on Monday afternoon after news came out that the Lions could be down their top offensive weapon, Kenny Golladay (groin), and their top defensive player, Trey Flowers (wrist, IR), for this week’s showdown against Minnesota. The Lions are 0-3 ATS in the three games that Golladay has partially or completely missed this season with an average margin of defeat of 15.3 points. I’m expecting this line to climb north of four points by the end of the week so I’m taking the value now with Minnesota. Risk 1.5 units at -110 to win 1.36 units (Nov. 2)
New York Giants (+3.5, Caesars) at Washington Football Team
I broke this game down as part of my Week 9 Opening Line Report. I think this line will at least get down to a straight field goal, and I think this line could finish less than a field goal depending on New York’s Monday Night Football result against the Buccaneers. Risk 1.5 units at -110 to win 1.36 units (Nov. 2)
Indianapolis Colts (+3.5, DraftKings) vs. Baltimore Ravens
I broke this game down as part of my Week 9 Opening Line Report. I’ll have the Ravens power rated as less than field-goal favorites this week especially after they lost LT Ronnie Stanley for the season in Week 8. Risk 1.5 units at -114 to win 1.32 units (Nov. 2)
Houston Texans (-6, DraftKings) at Jacksonville Jaguars
I broke this game down as part of my Week 9 Opening Line Report. I think this line could get up to a full touchdown by the end of the week with the Jaguars expected to turn to Jake Luton or Mike Glennon this week. The Texans could be sellers before Tuesday’s trade deadline, but I don’t think any line-movers like Will Fuller will be headed to new destinations. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Nov. 2)
Player Props
Record: 78-62 (+11.16 units); W9: 8-5 (+2.64 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Jerick McKinnon (SF) over 51.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Christian McCaffrey (Car) over 87.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Kyler Murray (Ari) over 40.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Cole Beasley (Buf) over 4.5 receptions (+105, DraftKings) (L)
Tyler Lockett (Sea) over 69.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) (L)
J.D. McKissic (Was) over 2.5 receptions (+115, BetMGM) (W)
CeeDee Lamb (Dal) over 3.5 receptions (+115, BetMGM) (W)
Ben Roethlisberger (Pit) under 36.5 attempts (-110, BetMGM) (L)
Lamar Jackson (Bal) over .5 interceptions (+110, DraftKings) (L)
Jerry Jeudy (Den) over 47.5 receiving yards (-112, BetMGM) (W)
Mike Williams (LAC) over 40.5 receiving yards (-112, BetMGM) (W)
Alvin Kamara (NO) over 5.5 receptions (+107, DraftKings) (L)
Scotty Miller (TB) under 29.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) over 4.5 receptions (-110, William Hill)