Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!
Monday Night Football
New England Patriots (2-5, 3-4 ATS) at New York Jets (0-8, 1-7), 8:15 p.m.
Implied Team Totals: Patriots 25.75, Jets 15.75
Spread/Total Movements: 7 to 10, 41 to 41.5
Weather: 60 degrees, clear, light winds
Patriots Injuries to Watch: CB Stephon Gilmore (knee, out), WR N’Keal Harry (concussion, out), RB J.J. Taylor (illness, out), DT Lawrence Guy (shoulder, out), LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (groin, out)
Jets Injuries to Watch: QB Sam Darnold (shoulder, out), WR Jamison Crowder (groin), DL Quinnen Williams (hamstring, doubtful)
Patriots Trends
New England is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games.
The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in this series.
It hasn’t been pretty for Cam Newton since he came off the COVID-19 list, but he’s still mustered two performances of 19+ FP around an ugly 2.82 FP performance against the 49ers in Week 7. Cam has thrown five INTs with no TD passes in that three-game span, but he does have six rushing TDs overall this season. The Jets are a get-well defense as we saw with Patrick Mahomes last week with the Chiefs airing it out for five TDs.
Jakobi Meyers has seen a 27% and a 43% target share over his last two games, which he’s turned into 10/118 receiving on 16 targets. We’ll see if he maintains his role in two-WR sets if N’Keal Harry returns to the lineup this week. Damiere Byrd hasn’t topped four targets or 40 yards in each of his last three games, but these WRs actually have a chance at production this week going against the Jets. New York is allowing 14.5/189.1 receiving per game to WRs this season.
Damien Harris had his best game of the season with 16/102/1 rushing last week while playing 38% of the snaps. He’s still seen just two targets since he returned to the lineup four games ago, but he’s reached 70+ yards in three of his four games. The Jets are allowing 4.4 YPC this season.
James White has seen just five targets over his last two games, which he’s turned into 3/38 receiving. The Jets are at least allowing 6.1 catches per game to RBs.
Jets Trends
The Jets have the second-lowest implied team total of the week.
These teams are 7-1 toward unders in the last eight games in this series.
New York has played under the total in four straight games.
The Jets have the second-worst ATS record in the league at 1-7.
Sam Darnold has just 10.2 FP in his first two games back from his throwing shoulder injury with just 153 yards without a touchdown. The Jets will shut him down this week after he aggravated his throwing shoulder injury. Joe Flacco will get his third start of the season. He’s averaging 190.5 passing yards per game with one TD and one INT. The Patriots have held three straight QBs under 14 FP without a touchdown.
Jamison Crowder has missed consecutive games with a groin injury and Braxton Berrios filled in once again as the slot WR. Crowder and Berrios have each played four games as the primary slot WR and the position is averaging 9.5 targets per game. The Patriots limited Crowder to 6/51 receiving in two games last season.
Denzel Mims ran a route on all 35 of Darnold’s dropbacks last week but he managed just 2/42 receiving on three targets against the Chiefs. It also looks like Breshad Perriman will return to the lineup after missing Week 8 with a concussion. They’ll get a boost this week with Stephon Gilmore out of the lineup with a knee injury.
Frank Gore is still leading La’Mical Perine in this backfield in touches (36 to 32) and scrimmage yards (160 to 123) since the Jets released Le’Veon Bell. The Patriots are allowing 120.9 rushing yards per game (fourth-most) after getting gashed to the tune of 167/2 rushing by Zack Moss and Devin Singletary last week.
Brolley’s Bets
New England Patriots -7 (Staff Picks Lean)
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) over 4.5 receptions (-110, William Hill)